Heat Index: Data
Was Game 4 LeBron James' best ever?
May, 21, 2012
May 21
11:19
AM ET
AP Photo/AJ Mast
The numbers say that LeBron James' outing on Sunday was one of the best of his playoff career. Duh.
LeBron James' 40 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 hadn't been done in a playoff game in over a half-century, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
But was it even James' best playoff game of his career?
Believe it or not, it might not have been.
At least statistically.
Considering the context of the series and the Heat's desperation with Chris Bosh sidelined, James' outing might be more impressive than his box score implies. But strictly looking at his numbers, how does his Sunday performance stack up?
Using a box score metric devised by our own John Hollinger called Game Score, James' Game 4 was just the seventh-best of his career.
Yes, seventh.
Here are James' top performances in the playoffs.
It's human nature to hail the latest achievement as the greatest achievement, but according to this measure, James' performance on Sunday wasn't even a top-5 outing. It ranked seventh by Game Score, which you can think of as a one-game player efficiency rating (PER).
Why wasn't a 40-18-9 outing ranked higher on the list?
For one, it's a testament to James' career. James receives a strong dose of criticism for his playoff duds, and after his Finals performance last season, much of it is warranted. But James has put up some mind-numbing games over his career.
If we're nitpicking, he tallied five turnovers Sunday and never made a 3-pointer. Granted, he didn't miss a 3-pointer, either, but the 3-pointers help efficiency in a big way. If you personally feel that rebounds are extra valuable, you might regard James' Sunday performance as his best. Feels silly to find flaws in a nearly spotless game like that.
Our own Brian Windhorst, who has covered James' entire career, believes that James' Sunday outing ranks as his best playoff performance since Game 5 against Orlando in 2009, when James put up 37 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists. Game Score called it James' 10th-best performance.
More than anything, that James' game might not have been his statistical best speaks to an up-and-down playoff career that has the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.
All in all, LeBron's outing was just about as good as it gets.
(Data provided by Basketball-Reference.com)
What happened to Haslem and Miller?
May, 17, 2012
May 17
2:03
PM ET
Getty Images, US Presswire
Once part of a historic free-agent haul, Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller haven't been themselves lately.
MIAMI -- The Heat weren't supposed to be this top-heavy.
The loss of Chris Bosh has ripped a gauze pad off Miami's hidden wound, exposing the Heat's thin depth behind the Big Three. In the Heat's first full playoff game without Bosh, the team's third-highest scorer tallied a putrid five points. According to STATS LLC, that's the first time in Heat franchise history that only two players scored more than five points in a game. According to our friends at ESPN Stats & Info, a team has never won a postseason game with that type of scoring distribution.
Use any statistic you please, what's clear is that the Heat have a pressing issue on their hands. It's just one game, but Game 2's lopsided scoring distribution reinforces the fact that the Heat are desperate for any help from their supporting cast.
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
In the summer of 2010, Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller were signed to five-year contracts worth a total of $45 million to act as relief and support for the Big Three. They were hired to be cushions for the Big Three, there to protect them with shooting and balance. We're in just Year 2 of those deals, and whispers of the dreaded "washed up" label can't be too far away for Haslem and Miller, who are 31 and 32 years old, respectively.
Haslem's 5.8 PER is the worst rating among the dozens of big men with at least 125 minutes logged in the playoffs. Miller has scored more than four points just once over his last five games and is shooting 33 percent from the floor in the playoffs.
So what happened? We'll take it one struggling ballplayer at a time.
Udonis Haslem
Haslem maintains he is 100 percent. After he chatted with Pat Riley on the sideline at Wednesday's practice, I asked him whether there's anything physically limiting him on the court, and he responded sternly.
"I'm fine, I'm fine," he said. "Nothing's wrong with me. I'm fine."
In this case, actions might speak louder than words. What his actions on the floor suggest is that something is keeping him grounded. Literally. Haslem, who was once one of the league's more efficient big men, has seen his field goal percentage plummet this season to 42.3 percent. In the playoffs, his conversion has sunk even lower; he's shooting 33.3 percent in what Erik Spoelstra likes to call "the second season."
What should concern the Heat is that the opposing team always seems to throw a block party when Haslem gets the ball underneath. And it's not just because 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert has anchored Indiana's front line. This has been a season-long trend. When we pull up NBA.com's stats tool, we find out that a whopping 20 percent of Haslem's shots in the paint have been blocked this season, which is the third-highest rate among qualified big men in the league. (Only Brandon Bass and Ivan Johnson were swatted more). That's one out of every five shots. That's also double the rate we saw before he was injured last season (10.3 percent). In his last full season in 2009-10, that number stood at 12.5 percent.
As a result of all the blocked shots, his field goal percentage on shots in the paint has dwindled to a mere 46 percent, which is far below the 54.5 percent average among bigs. More and more we see Haslem retrieving an offensive rebound (often off his own misses) and passing it out to the perimeter instead of going back up with it. While that might be the smarter move, it's also one that might not have happened a couple of years ago.
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
Udonis Haslem has been blocked more than ever this season.
Udonis Haslem has been blocked more than ever this season.
Then we get to that jumper. The herky-jerky shooting motion has never been a thing of beauty, but it always seemed to get results. Not so much lately. So far in the postseason, he's shooting a putrid 27.3 percent on jumpers, according to Synergy Sports, which is down from his rate of 36.2 percent in the regular season. Before going down with a foot injury, Haslem nailed 50.9 percent of his jumpers, making him one of the best knockdown midrange shooters in the league.
What's the cause of his jumper's demise? It could be a matter of balance and follow-through as his former trainer and current ESPN Insider David Thorpe observed in January. Although Haslem started hitting shots soon after that article was posted, his proficiency has hit rock bottom yet again.
This is not the Haslem the Heat thought they were getting when they signed him to a contract that extends to 2015. The fire, heart and leadership that earned Haslem a co-captain designation? That's still there. That should never be doubted with Haslem, the team's hard-nosed leader and rock of the franchise. The production, though? That's been missing for some time now. The 12 minutes he received in Game 2 spoke wonders about where he fits into the Heat's current plans.
So what happened to Haslem? It's hard to say. Again, Haslem insists that he's healthy, but that foot injury required several surgeries over the past year or so. The increase in blocked shots suggest that he doesn't have the same burst that he used to. His strong rebounding numbers might tell us that he's not hurting at all, but Haslem's rebounding has always been a product of expert positioning and effort, not bounce.
The Heat need Haslem's shooting more than ever now that Bosh is sidelined. He's giving no reason for Hibbert and David West to follow him after a pick-and-roll. As is, the Pacers bigs are more than happy to throw an extra body in the way of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, rather than stick to Haslem in the midrange. The Pacers are making it clear that they don't feel he's a threat from there anymore. And it's hurting the Heat's attack.
Mike Miller
Miller and Haslem find themselves in the same boat, which is appropriate since they were college roommates at Florida. After receiving a multiyear deal to flank the Big Three, Miller has barely played a healthy minute on the floor. In Game 2, he grimaced as he trotted up and down the floor with a noticeable limp, perhaps due to a lingering soreness from his left ankle injury that forced him to miss 14 games in March and April.
Miller, like Haslem, maintains that he is healthy. The hobbling in Game 2 suggests otherwise, and there's little doubt that it's sapping his game. The Heat recruited Miller because of his shooting stroke and ballhandling ability. Upon his signing in July 2010, Riley gushed about Miller's skill set, calling him the finest perimeter shooter in the NBA and the signing as "a match made in heaven."
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
Mike Miller hasn't been the dynamic ball handler he once was.
Mike Miller hasn't been the dynamic ball handler he once was.
"He is a multifaceted player who can rebound, handle the ball and make plays," Riley said that summer. "We expect big things from him."
The shooting stroke is still there -- he's shooting 36.7 percent from downtown in the playoffs and 45.3 percent in the regular season, but the ballhandling and playmaking skills that the Heat were sold on? We've haven't seen that in months.
If you have any doubt that Miller's ankle is bothering him, chew on the following information. In Game 2, Miller played 17 minutes. In those 17 minutes, guess how many times he dribbled in the half court?
Four.
And he lost the ball on three of those dribbles, causing two turnovers.
Think about that. Four dribbles in 17 minutes.
Miller, who used to play de facto point guard during his days in Memphis, played 17 minutes in Game 2 and successfully put the ball on the deck once in the half court. (I say half court because he caught an outlet pass and dribbled twice on one occasion before passing the ball past half court). As has been true for a while, Miller's role on the team has been reduced to a corner 3-point shooter, camped out and waiting for the kickout from James or Wade.
This is a significant problem for the Heat, because once Bosh went down, they have had no one who can create their own shot besides James and Wade. It's gotten so bad that the team is forced to rely on rookie Norris Cole, who shot 34 percent after the All-Star break, for buckets off the bench. Sure, Cole can create his own shot, but making the shot has been a different story -- although it should be mentioned that he made both of his attempts in Game 2.
When the Heat signed Miller and Haslem, there was no way of knowing that they were going to battle injuries for almost all of their first two seasons in uniform. Between the foot, ankle and shoulder injuries and the concussions, there's a ton of bad luck involved. But you always run that risk when you sign veterans on the wrong side of 30 to five-year deals. Thanks to injuries and age, the multidimensional players they thought they were getting have become increasingly limited as basketball players.
What the Heat need now is Miller and Haslem to step up if they hope to escape out of the Eastern Conference semifinals. There's still time to get healthy and reverse the trends.
But the more they limp up the floor and get swatted underneath the basket, the more it appears that time might be running out.
A visual: LeBron James' MVP season
May, 11, 2012
May 11
7:34
PM ET
Statistically, LeBron James had no peer this season. So it comes as no surprise that James will be named 2011-12's MVP.
James averaged 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.9 steals on 53.1 percent shooting in 2011-12.
Bottle up all his box score stats into one round figure and we find he posted a player efficiency rating (PER) of 30.8 this season.
No one came within three points of his PER. Chris Paul registered a 27.1 PER this season, but came in second by a wide margin.
If you need further evidence that LeBron was in a class of his own this season, take a look at the visualization below, which displays each player's PER by minutes played.
An MVP season, indeed.
James averaged 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.9 steals on 53.1 percent shooting in 2011-12.
Bottle up all his box score stats into one round figure and we find he posted a player efficiency rating (PER) of 30.8 this season.
No one came within three points of his PER. Chris Paul registered a 27.1 PER this season, but came in second by a wide margin.
If you need further evidence that LeBron was in a class of his own this season, take a look at the visualization below, which displays each player's PER by minutes played.
An MVP season, indeed.
Dwyane Wade's historic block party rolls on
May, 10, 2012
May 10
2:18
PM ET
Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
All-time swatter Dwyane Wade took extra pleasure in blocking Carmelo Anthony.
MIAMI -- Dwyane Wade rarely picks on someone his own size.
Take Wednesday’s Game 5 versus the Knicks, for instance. In the third quarter of the Heat’s series-clinching victory, the 6-foot-4 Wade snuck over to guard the 6-foot-8 Carmelo Anthony in the post. Knowing he towered over the Heat’s undersized shooting guard, Anthony called for the ball on the block.
These are the moments that Wade lives for: the challenge of overcoming an enormous size disadvantage. After Wade parked himself behind Anthony in the post, Anthony spun toward the rim and saw daylight for a dunk. As the small forward rose up for the slam, Wade apparently had other plans. Wade leapt up from behind Anthony and spiked the ball into the hardwood. After getting his shot blocked by Wade, Anthony could only bow his head and sheepishly walk back on defense.
On Wednesday night, Wade tallied a series of highlight reel dunks and drilled a variety of memorable circus shots. But according to Wade, none felt better than the block on Anthony.
“Yeah, I enjoyed that,” Wade said with a laugh, reflecting on the highlights during the win. “Probably the most satisfaction I got was blocking my good ol’ buddy Melo.
“I always enjoy that, because I’m not supposed to do it as much as I have over my career.”
A player of Wade’s size shouldn’t be capable of denying forwards and centers. What sets Wade apart from all the great shooting guards in NBA history isn’t his ability to score, but his ability to prevent others from scoring.
More to the point, Wade might be the best shot-blocking guard the league has ever seen.
Wade added another two blocks to his name on Wednesday, and he had one of the best shot-blocking campaigns of his career, swatting 1.3 shots per game despite battling an assortment of minor leg injuries and playing a career-low 33.2 minutes per game.
How remarkable is that?
Brian Babineau/Getty
Kevin Garnett and Dwyane Wade are equals in the block department.
Kevin Garnett and Dwyane Wade are equals in the block department.
Consider the following. Wade blocked more than four times as many shots as the average shooting guard (0.3 blocks per game). On a per-minute basis, he blocked shots more often than Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, LaMarcus Aldridge and, yes, Chris Bosh and LeBron James, too. Said another way, you could tally up all the combined blocked shots by reputable defenders Tony Allen, Kobe Bryant and Avery Bradley this season -- and they still wouldn’t have more blocks than Wade this season.
Historically, we have no precedent. Wade is the only guard in NBA history to average a block per game over his career. The late Reggie Lewis trails Wade with a 0.9 blocked shot average and ranks second all-time. Other known shot-blockers such as George Gervin, Michael Jordan, David Thompson and Vince Carter all look up at Wade in the blocks category.
You don’t have to sell coach Erik Spoelstra on the notion that Wade is a once-in-a-lifetime shot-blocker. As someone who grew from video coordinator to head coach over a 17-year span in the Heat organization, Spoelstra has seen every one of Wade’s 712 blocks over his playing career. But to Spoelstra, it’s who he blocks, not how many, that makes Wade special.
“He’s a game-changer back there,” Spoelstra said. “I don’t know if there’s ever been a 2-guard that’s had as many off-the-ball shot blocks on big men as Dwyane has gotten.”
It's true. The average height of Wade's block victims his season was the same as the average height of Clippers center DeAndre Jordan's victims (6-foot-6). While centers are busy swatting shorter players, Wade routinely preys on taller players who, on average, are 2 inches taller than himself.
How does he pull it off?
“Awareness, alertness, instincts,” Spoelstra said. “And then you have the physical gifts. He’s 6-foot-4 on a good day, but he has that almost-7-foot wingspan and the big hands. He has a complete understanding of our system so his instincts are razor-sharp. He reads plays and reads people’s eyes.”
Spoelstra makes it a point to stress that Wade might not be as tall as he’s currently listed. This has been a topic of much debate -- and chiding -- in the Heat locker room. Just ask James.
“A lot of people don’t expect a 6-foot-3 guard to contest at the rim," James said. "If you’re a big man and you turn and you see D-Wade, you just look at his size and you don’t realize that he actually plays bigger than his size. A lot of people contest shots, but not many win that matchup.”
Wait, is Wade really 6-foot-3?
“He’s 6-foot-1 in my mind,” James joked. “My basketball card at home says he’s 6-foot-3 so we’ll leave it at that.”
Heat co-captain Udonis Haslem entered the Miami organization with Wade, but insists that Wade has never dunked on him in practice. If you ask Haslem about his favorite Wade block, he won’t hesitate to name it.
“Brook Lopez, and he blocked his shot twice,” Haslem recalled. “That was pretty impressive at 6-foot-1.”
Another height discrepancy.
“I’ve never said 6-foot-4, so there's no discrepancy on my end,” Haslem assured reporters. “LeBron says 6-foot-1 and he’s a pretty smart guy.”
Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty
Tyson Chandler is just one of Wade's 7-foot victims
Tyson Chandler is just one of Wade's 7-foot victims
Height scandals aside, Wade’s blocks on Lopez are just two blocks in Wade's catalog of denials against 7-footers and centers. There was the time when Wade pinned Dwight Howard’s shot to the backboard last season. There’s also the time he blocked Dirk Nowitzki’s seemingly unblockable jumper. And perhaps the most memorable of them all: Wade swatted Tyson Chandler’s dunk attempt in the Finals.
There’s no doubt that Wade has been the recipient of humiliation at the rim before. Many times. But to Wade, that’s just something that comes with the territory.
“Shot-blocking is first about courage,” Wade said. “Especially when you’re going to block somebody near the rim, it’s easy to get dunked on. You’re going to get embarrassed. I’ve had my fair share of those. Last year, when I got dunked on in the playoffs [by Taj Gibson], it was a big deal. That shows that I’m a shot-blocker, so I appreciate that.”
Wade rarely shies away from shot-blocking opportunities, and that's partly by design. In the Heat's mechanical defense, which was orchestrated by Pat Riley and sharpened by Spoelstra, Wade must make his presence felt underneath the rim. The Heat's defensive blueprint requires guards to act like big men underneath and wall off penetration.
It's something that newcomers in the Heat system have to get used to. Even a player like Shane Battier, who has studied defensive principles his entire career, needed time to adjust to Wade's shot-blocking talents.
"Earlier in the season," Spoelstra remembers, "Shane Battier was in a situation where Dwyane Wade was a low man and the big man caught it right at the rim and Shane went to foul. We told Shane, 'No, that’s not a fouling situation. Let Dwyane go up there and be a playmaker. That’s not a given even against a center.'"
As time went on, Battier got used to playing next to a 6-foot-4 basket protector, which is a luxury considering the Heat often play Battier and Wade without a traditional center. There's a reason why the Heat, who don't have a 7-footer in the rotation, held opponents to the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage at the rim, according to Hoopdata.com.
If you're wondering how the Heat manage to have one of the league's top defensive teams without a conventional lineup, look no further than Wade's team-leading 1.3 blocks per game.
"I take a lot of pride in it," Wade said. "If I can talk about anything in my statistical game, it’s my blocks. It’s the one thing I look at. Hitting game winners is great, but blocking somebody at the basket when they’re trying to dunk on you? Yeah, that’s pretty good. I feel bigger and stronger after that. Anytime that I can feel bigger than I am, I’m good."
LeBron continues fourth-quarter dominance
May, 4, 2012
May 4
3:37
PM ET
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
Once a fourth-quarter punch line, LeBron has been getting the last laugh these days.
Should we be surprised by LeBron James' spectacular fourth quarter in Game 3?
Not if you've been paying close attention to LeBron's fourth-quarter play this season. The 17-point barrage in the closing minutes in New Jersey. The 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting in Utah. The 12 points in a January game, following it up with a six-assist outing in a close February contest and then upstaging that with a 15-point outburst in an April game -- all coming in wins against the Philadelphia 76ers. Just ask Doug Collins if LeBron sputters out in the fourth quarter.
LeBron has heard all the jokes and it hasn't seemed to bother his play at all this season. Despite the breathless criticism that he vanishes in fourth quarters, his player efficiency rating (PER) in the fourth quarter (33.1) is much higher than his overall PER this season (30.8).
In fact, only one other player in the league has been better in the fourth quarter and that's his pal Chris Paul.
Here are the top players in fourth-quarter PER along with their PER in other quarters (minimum 1,000 total minutes):
First, let us bow down before the all-mighty Chris Paul. Sheesh.
The Lob City point guard has been supernatural in the fourth quarter this season. If Paul does what he does in the fourth quarter for an entire game, here's his stat line: 28.7 points, 8.2 assists, 3.2 steals on 50 percent shooting per 36 minutes. It all adds up to an astronomical 38.7 PER. For those wondering, Kobe Bryant finished with the 13th-highest PER in fourth quarters with 25.0, right behind Kevin Garnett.
Coming in second is LeBron. The fourth quarter actually isn't his best quarter; he dominates the second quarter more than anyone. (Sidenote: LeBron and Wade rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the second frame.) But the dominance on Thursday night is just another data point in a season-long trend. LeBron has been just as electric in the fourth quarter as the rest of the game and perhaps even more so.
The interesting thing is that his fourth-quarter production might be spurred by rest. Coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation demanded that LeBron play shortened minutes in the second and fourth quarters, so it might be more than just a coincidence that LeBron went bonkers right after an extended rest in the third quarter. This season, LeBron has just 444 minutes in the fourth quarter compared to, say, 760 minutes in the third quarter.
So what does this all mean?
LeBron played an absurd number of minutes in the last playoffs (42.4 minutes per game versus Philadelphia, 44.6 versus Boston, 45.2 versus Chicago), and it should be clear now why the Heat brought in Shane Battier. He's the battery for LeBron. (For what it's worth, LeBron had a slightly lower PER in the fourth quarter in the regular season than his overall rating last season, and a microscopic 8.4 PER against Dallas in the Finals.)
Of course, as has been the case all season long, nothing really matters to the general public until the Finals. But the Heat are being very careful with his minutes this season and so far, it's paying off.
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
'Point center' LeBron James fourth in DPOY
May, 2, 2012
May 2
6:09
PM ET
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
LeBron James' versatility made him a top candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
MIAMI -- The league announced on Wednesday that Knicks center Tyson Chandler was voted the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year for 2011-12, earning 311 total points and 45 first place nods. Placing fourth was Miami's LeBron James, who generated 112 votes from the media and seven first place votes.
Was James more deserving?
Erik Spoelstra made his case at Wednesday's practice.
"Tyson Chandler is a heck of a defensive player," Spoelstra said. "That’s a tough award to vote for. We think LeBron could easily have won it. But all we’re concerned about is the contributions he’s make for us, specifically to be the most impactful defensive player on the court but also to play multiple positions which allows us to play our most versatile players."
Spoelstra has been James' biggest supporter when it comes to the top defender award. Multiple times this season, the Heat coach has praised James' dedication, versatility and ability to guard anyone from Derrick Rose to Pau Gasol. And not just guard them, but guard them well.
James' versatility was on full display in Game 2. Midway through the first quarter, James trotted down the court and parked himself right in front of Chandler, who stands 7-foot-1 from the ground up.
James, who is listed at 6-foot-8, was guarding the Knicks' center and did so for the next several possessions. Chandler didn't touch the ball.
"It’s highly unique," Spoelstra said of James guarding centers. "But also paramount for us to take advantage of our roster’s versatility, the strength of our roster. If we didn’t have a player like LeBron, we wouldn’t be able to unlock that versatility."
What's more, James guarded Chandler on one end of the floor and then ran the Heat's offense on the other end as a point guard. Put the two together and you have the league's only point center. At least for a few possessions.
"I don’t think anybody has done it since Magic," Spoelstra said of the point center. "I don’t think Magic guarded all five positions either."
Expect to see more of that versatility in Game 3 when the Knicks play without Amare Stoudemire, who's sitting out with a lacerated left hand. The Knicks will likely go unconventional and start Carmelo Anthony at the power forward slot. But don't be surprised if Spoelstra takes it one step further and slots James at point center alongside other perimeter players. Ironically, such a move might force Mike Woodson to think about taking the newly-crowned Chandler off the floor for defensive purposes.
The point center formation is something new for James. When he came into the league, he didn't imagine this would be in store for him.
"I had never played point-center," James said Wednesday. "I was kind of taller than people in Akron when I was younger, but I never played point-center or guarded centers. But I’m happy to be able to do things to help our team win and that’s what it comes down to."
Chandler isn't the first center that James has guarded this season and it probably won't be his last. During the 2011-12 regular season, James has picked up Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol.
Shane Battier, who has broken defense down to a science, remains in awe of James' body of work this season.
"We have a guy who really can guard anybody 1-through-5," Battier said. "People say that all the time, so it seems like a cliché, but with LeBron it’s actually true. So many defensive philosophies and schemes can really handcuff your personnel, but he gives us some flexibility to do some creative things defensively."
The traditional statistics don't do James' season justice. He ranked third in steals per game (1.9), but he makes far more impact plays on the floor that don't get captured in the box score. He held opposing small forwards to a 10.0 player efficiency rating, which is the fourth lowest rating in the league according to 82games.com, an advanced stats website. Alas, there's no metric available that quantifies his versatility.
"I don't have a problem with Tyson Chandler winning," Battier said. "He changed that team around defensively. But I think LeBron was also deserving."
How Game 2 will look different than Game 1
April, 29, 2012
Apr 29
11:19
AM ET
After witnessing a beatdown like Game 1, it's hard to imagine that the Heat-Knicks series will be anything but lopsided going forward. But if you've paid attention to playoff basketball over the years, you know that things can change quickly. Playoff teams must have a short memory; game plans are scrapped and teams treat each game like its own animal.
What adjustments will be made? It's impossible to predict how the coaches will react to Game 1, but here are three reasons Game 2 might not look anything like Game 1.
Guarding Carmelo Anthony: To front or not to front?
No one saw it coming. Or at least the Knicks didn't. Erik Spoelstra treated the April 15 regular-season matchup against the Knicks like it was a postseason game, making a key adjustment that we’d normally see reserved for the middle of a playoff series. The big wrinkle?
They fronted Carmelo Anthony in the post, shielding every entry pass and mapping a detour away from his favorite spots. Everyone knows that the Knicks play predictable one-on-one basketball (iso-ball for short) with Anthony on the elbow and Spoelstra made sure they were never comfortable even getting into that set. Anthony shot 3-for-15 for the game and the Knicks turned the ball over a whopping 27 times.
But don’t expect the Heat to stay set in their ways. LeBron James, who served as Anthony’s primary defender, told reporters after the game that they’re not done throwing curveballs.
“Now that he knows that we fronted him, we might have something different from Game 2,” James teased to reporters.
Shane Battier, who was also assigned to fronting duty, echoed James’ sentiment that fronting isn’t a permanent program.
“They’re going to make adjustments in Game 2,” Battier said. “We’re not going to have as easy of a time in Game 2 playing the same defense. That’s what playoffs are about. At least we gave him a different look and we’ll try to come up with a counter to their counter. That is the chess match that is the playoffs.”
How might the Knicks counter? There’s a reason teams don’t front post players all the time. It leaves the weak side vulnerable to swing passes. Every time the Heat fronted Anthony in the post, it required a big man to leave his assignment and help defend the lob pass over the top of the shield. If Anthony catches the ball and immediately whips the ball to the newly open man, the Heat’s strategy will suffer.
Additionally, the Knicks could run screens to free up Anthony at his favorite spots rather than have him battle for position. A third counter: have Anthony play point forward, which would avoid the front and forced entry passes all together. The Knicks’ coaching staff will install an array of counters to decongest the offense. As lopsided as Game 1 was, the Heat are far from declaring “checkmate.”
Life without Iman Shumpert
Though it didn’t rock the basketball world quite like Derrick Rose’s knee injury, Iman Shumpert’s torn ACL gave a sizable blow to the Knicks’ chances and morale in the series. Shumpert may be a rookie, but he doesn’t play like one on the defensive end. He ranks as the Knicks’ top perimeter defender. He cuts off all airspace when guarding the ball and rarely gives an inch for the player to move.
Now that Shumpert is sidelined, don’t be surprised if Dwyane Wade has a much better outing in Game 2. Though Landry Fields isn’t a poor defender, he’ll let Wade get far more comfortable out on the perimeter.
“Each defender is different,” Wade said in the locker room. “Shumpert is more of a pressure guy, trying to make sure you’re not comfortable especially when you have a ball on a live dribble, he’ll try to get up in your space. Landry Fields uses his length and size to his advantage.”
Wade might be looking forward to going against Fields, but the numbers tell us that he pretty much had his way against the rookie this season. According to NBA.com’s stats tool, Wade scored 29.3 points every 36 minutes with Shumpert on the floor, but that scoring output dropped to “just” 22.6 points per 36 minutes with Shumpert sitting on the bench.
But Wade isn’t the only player who might be relieved that he won’t have to face the pesky Shumpert. When Anthony needed a lift on James, Shumpert occasionally came to the rescue. That backup is no longer there, forcing J.R. Smith to serve as Anthony’s lone insurance plan on James.
How does losing Shumpert affect the Knicks’ offense? Compared to Fields, Shumpert is like Steve Kerr as a 3-point shooter (or Steve Novak for that matter). Fields has been a miserable shooter from downtown this season, shooting just 25 percent from there in the regular season, which will allow the Heat to be a little more aggressive with their defensive rotations. They won’t have to worry too much about Fields as a deep threat.
Tyson Chandler on the mend
As badly as Carmelo Anthony played in Game 1, no one looked and played worse than Tyson Chandler, a likely recipient of the Defensive Player of the Year award. How bad was his outing? Chandler became the first player in more than 25 years to record zero points and seven turnovers in a playoff game.
Somehow after all these years, Michael Jordan's "flu game" keeps looking even more impressive. Chandler gave it a go after being a game-time decision with the flu, but if he knew it was going to be one of the Knicks' worst playoff defeats in franchise history, he might have stayed in his hotel. Of course, Chandler had a big part in the outcome, getting whistled for charges while literally and figuratively dropping the ball on numerous occasions.
But the old playoff mantra of "it's only one game" rings especially true for Chandler. He was physically weak and mentally unfocused, which is a rare sight from him. The sharp rotations and heady basketball plays that we have normally come to expect from Chandler were swallowed up by the flu.
That fog won't linger long. It should only get better for Chandler and the Knicks as he recovers from the flu in the coming days. He might not be 100 percent for Monday's game, but it'll certainly be an improvement over the 10 percent he was feeling in Game 1.
If the Heat are expecting to get to the rim at will and draw that many whistles in Game 2, they are mistaken. Chandler is too good to let that happen again.
What adjustments will be made? It's impossible to predict how the coaches will react to Game 1, but here are three reasons Game 2 might not look anything like Game 1.
Guarding Carmelo Anthony: To front or not to front?
No one saw it coming. Or at least the Knicks didn't. Erik Spoelstra treated the April 15 regular-season matchup against the Knicks like it was a postseason game, making a key adjustment that we’d normally see reserved for the middle of a playoff series. The big wrinkle?
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
We might not see this strategy from LeBron James in Game 2.
We might not see this strategy from LeBron James in Game 2.
They fronted Carmelo Anthony in the post, shielding every entry pass and mapping a detour away from his favorite spots. Everyone knows that the Knicks play predictable one-on-one basketball (iso-ball for short) with Anthony on the elbow and Spoelstra made sure they were never comfortable even getting into that set. Anthony shot 3-for-15 for the game and the Knicks turned the ball over a whopping 27 times.
But don’t expect the Heat to stay set in their ways. LeBron James, who served as Anthony’s primary defender, told reporters after the game that they’re not done throwing curveballs.
“Now that he knows that we fronted him, we might have something different from Game 2,” James teased to reporters.
Shane Battier, who was also assigned to fronting duty, echoed James’ sentiment that fronting isn’t a permanent program.
“They’re going to make adjustments in Game 2,” Battier said. “We’re not going to have as easy of a time in Game 2 playing the same defense. That’s what playoffs are about. At least we gave him a different look and we’ll try to come up with a counter to their counter. That is the chess match that is the playoffs.”
How might the Knicks counter? There’s a reason teams don’t front post players all the time. It leaves the weak side vulnerable to swing passes. Every time the Heat fronted Anthony in the post, it required a big man to leave his assignment and help defend the lob pass over the top of the shield. If Anthony catches the ball and immediately whips the ball to the newly open man, the Heat’s strategy will suffer.
Additionally, the Knicks could run screens to free up Anthony at his favorite spots rather than have him battle for position. A third counter: have Anthony play point forward, which would avoid the front and forced entry passes all together. The Knicks’ coaching staff will install an array of counters to decongest the offense. As lopsided as Game 1 was, the Heat are far from declaring “checkmate.”
Life without Iman Shumpert
Though it didn’t rock the basketball world quite like Derrick Rose’s knee injury, Iman Shumpert’s torn ACL gave a sizable blow to the Knicks’ chances and morale in the series. Shumpert may be a rookie, but he doesn’t play like one on the defensive end. He ranks as the Knicks’ top perimeter defender. He cuts off all airspace when guarding the ball and rarely gives an inch for the player to move.
Marc Serota/Getty Images
Iman Shumpert's knee injury will have a significant impact on the series.
Iman Shumpert's knee injury will have a significant impact on the series.
Now that Shumpert is sidelined, don’t be surprised if Dwyane Wade has a much better outing in Game 2. Though Landry Fields isn’t a poor defender, he’ll let Wade get far more comfortable out on the perimeter.
“Each defender is different,” Wade said in the locker room. “Shumpert is more of a pressure guy, trying to make sure you’re not comfortable especially when you have a ball on a live dribble, he’ll try to get up in your space. Landry Fields uses his length and size to his advantage.”
Wade might be looking forward to going against Fields, but the numbers tell us that he pretty much had his way against the rookie this season. According to NBA.com’s stats tool, Wade scored 29.3 points every 36 minutes with Shumpert on the floor, but that scoring output dropped to “just” 22.6 points per 36 minutes with Shumpert sitting on the bench.
But Wade isn’t the only player who might be relieved that he won’t have to face the pesky Shumpert. When Anthony needed a lift on James, Shumpert occasionally came to the rescue. That backup is no longer there, forcing J.R. Smith to serve as Anthony’s lone insurance plan on James.
How does losing Shumpert affect the Knicks’ offense? Compared to Fields, Shumpert is like Steve Kerr as a 3-point shooter (or Steve Novak for that matter). Fields has been a miserable shooter from downtown this season, shooting just 25 percent from there in the regular season, which will allow the Heat to be a little more aggressive with their defensive rotations. They won’t have to worry too much about Fields as a deep threat.
Tyson Chandler on the mend
As badly as Carmelo Anthony played in Game 1, no one looked and played worse than Tyson Chandler, a likely recipient of the Defensive Player of the Year award. How bad was his outing? Chandler became the first player in more than 25 years to record zero points and seven turnovers in a playoff game.
Marc Serota/Getty Images
Tyson Chandler can only go up from here.
Tyson Chandler can only go up from here.
Somehow after all these years, Michael Jordan's "flu game" keeps looking even more impressive. Chandler gave it a go after being a game-time decision with the flu, but if he knew it was going to be one of the Knicks' worst playoff defeats in franchise history, he might have stayed in his hotel. Of course, Chandler had a big part in the outcome, getting whistled for charges while literally and figuratively dropping the ball on numerous occasions.
But the old playoff mantra of "it's only one game" rings especially true for Chandler. He was physically weak and mentally unfocused, which is a rare sight from him. The sharp rotations and heady basketball plays that we have normally come to expect from Chandler were swallowed up by the flu.
That fog won't linger long. It should only get better for Chandler and the Knicks as he recovers from the flu in the coming days. He might not be 100 percent for Monday's game, but it'll certainly be an improvement over the 10 percent he was feeling in Game 1.
If the Heat are expecting to get to the rim at will and draw that many whistles in Game 2, they are mistaken. Chandler is too good to let that happen again.
Visualizing LeBron's statistical dominance
April, 18, 2012
Apr 18
10:16
AM ET
As the season winds down, it's time we updated the PER illustration chart from January that displayed LeBron James' statistical separation from the rest of the NBA.
LeBron hasn't maintained his historic start to the season, but the production gap between him and his contemporaries? Still there.
LeBron's statistical accomplishments are mind-boggling. He leads the Heat in scoring, rebounds, assists and steals. In a condensed season that has wreaked havoc on the league's numbers, LeBron averages 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.9 steals while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor.
The only player ever to match that stat line? A man named Michael Jordan. He did it once, in 1988-89.
In the advanced stats categories, LeBron ranks ninth in effective field goal percentage (.552), ninth in true shooting (.603), seventh in offensive rating (117.8) and 10th in defensive rating (98.1). We can also look at his player efficiency rating (PER), which bottles up all of his box score stats into one handy measure, and see that his 30.5 rating ranks head-and-shoulders above his peers. Chris Paul at 26.6 PER is his closest competitor, but the distance between James and Paul is equivalent to the distance between Paul and Greg Monroe (22.4)
But how can we best capture LeBron's statistical dominance this season?
See for yourself.
The chart below illustrates LeBron's PER compared to the rest of the league. (If you're wondering, the color is determined by age -- older the bolder.)
Note: Eddy Curry has posted a 0.0 PER this season while Jason Collins checks in at minus-0.5. Yes, a negative PER.
LeBron hasn't maintained his historic start to the season, but the production gap between him and his contemporaries? Still there.
LeBron's statistical accomplishments are mind-boggling. He leads the Heat in scoring, rebounds, assists and steals. In a condensed season that has wreaked havoc on the league's numbers, LeBron averages 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.9 steals while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor.
The only player ever to match that stat line? A man named Michael Jordan. He did it once, in 1988-89.
In the advanced stats categories, LeBron ranks ninth in effective field goal percentage (.552), ninth in true shooting (.603), seventh in offensive rating (117.8) and 10th in defensive rating (98.1). We can also look at his player efficiency rating (PER), which bottles up all of his box score stats into one handy measure, and see that his 30.5 rating ranks head-and-shoulders above his peers. Chris Paul at 26.6 PER is his closest competitor, but the distance between James and Paul is equivalent to the distance between Paul and Greg Monroe (22.4)
But how can we best capture LeBron's statistical dominance this season?
See for yourself.
The chart below illustrates LeBron's PER compared to the rest of the league. (If you're wondering, the color is determined by age -- older the bolder.)
Note: Eddy Curry has posted a 0.0 PER this season while Jason Collins checks in at minus-0.5. Yes, a negative PER.
The catalyst to LeBron James' MVP push
April, 17, 2012
Apr 17
11:02
AM ET
Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
With Dwyane Wade often out of the picture, LeBron James' dominance has kept the Heat afloat.
On Monday night, LeBron James delivered a vintage performance through a furious late-game comeback in New Jersey. He looked like the James of old, attacking the basket with reckless abandon and blasting through multiple defenders en route to the rim.
James outscored the Nets 17-9 over the final five minutes of the game. New Jersey knew what was coming but still could not stop it. In the midst of the barrage, there was Dwyane Wade, cheering James on from the sideline, fist-pumping after every James basket with such enthusiasm that it looked like he was pulling a lawnmower cord in rewind.
This scene has been a familiar one over the past several months. Throughout this condensed season, it has become clear that James has been at his best while Wade gets his rest.
Whether it's due to injury or Heat coach Erik Spoelstra's so-called "maintenance program," Wade has sat on the bench more than ever this season. The 30-year-old has averaged a career-low 33.8 minutes per game and has been a spectator in street clothes for a total of 13 games, with the Heat going 12-1 in those games. In fact, the Heat have played almost half (46 percent) of the season's total minutes with Wade on the bench. But nonetheless, thanks to James' play, the Heat have been able to chase the league's top record even with Wade missing so much time.
It's no coincidence that we're seeing James perform like he did in Cleveland while Wade has been sidelined. Should James win the MVP award this season, it'll primarily be because he has lifted his game to towering heights in the absence of Wade. When Wade exits the game, it's James' opportunity to get back to his old self, something he vowed to do before the season. The numbers are impossible to ignore.
Is it a surprise that James watches his numbers surge when a ball-dominant wing player leaves his side? No, that's expected. But the sheer magnitude is staggering. With Wade off the floor, James averages 30.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists every 36 minutes while putting up a monstrous player efficiency rating (PER) of 35.6. However, when Wade joins him on the floor, James' scoring numbers fall off a cliff, down to "just" 22.7 points per 36 minutes, while his PER slides to a more terrestrial 27.4 figure.
To see why, just look at the usage rate (USG%) column, which tells us the percentage of the Heat's possessions that James uses while on the floor. Like we witnessed on Monday night, James attacks more aggressively when Wade sits on the bench, using 37.9 percent of the Heat's possessions while averaging more field goal and free throw attempts in his playing time. When Wade takes the floor, James sees about a third of his shots disappear.
This is the sacrifice that James made. Gone are the days when he could shoot 30 times a game without having to share the ball with Wade or Chris Bosh. James knowingly traded individual numbers for the potential glory of winning a championship. Last season, James' numbers dipped, "The Decision" backlash hadn't thawed and the Heat disappointed in dramatic fashion. As a result, James finished third in the MVP vote. As everyone knows, the tradeoff didn't pay out and James ended the season empty-handed, without an MVP trophy or a championship ring.
But this season, he could gain at least one of those pieces of cherished hardware -- the Maurice Podoloff trophy -- because his on-court surroundings have looked reminiscent of his Cleveland days when he won two straight MVPs. Not only has James lifted his game with Wade sitting out, but he's having more opportunities to shine. Last season, James shared the court with Wade for 73.2 percent of his minutes. This season? Time with Wade has dropped to 58.2 percent. In the end, James has raised his PER back to where it was before he left Cleveland (30.6 this season versus 31.1 in 2009-10).
James has made the most of the focused spotlight this season, Monday night's 37-point performance being just the latest example. Though James teamed up with Wade to win a title, playing without Wade has reaffirmed James' individual value.
With off-the-charts production this season, James has left no doubt that he remains the most talented player in the game. Perhaps all it took was some alone time for the world to appreciate it.
Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.
What happened to the Heat offense?
March, 28, 2012
Mar 28
11:14
AM ET
Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images
Are LeBron James and Dwyane Wade worn out from the up-tempo offense?
Remember the "pace and space" offense? That was what Erik Spoelstra called the Heat's new offensive philosophy. Run the floor, space the floor and attack relentlessly. For the first couple weeks of the season, the Heat did just that. In the season premiere on Christmas, they pummeled the Dallas Mavericks with 31 fastbreak points and turned the defending champs into petrified wood. Over the first ten games of the season, the Heat averaged 21.6 points per game on fastbreaks. The Heat were fulfilling their vision as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade lead a stampede through the league.
And then it all came to a halt. First impressions are hard to break, so it's easy to overlook how the Heat have slowly transformed from a hare to a turtle. And in the process, the Heat's offense has experienced their ups and downs. In February, the Heat's offense was thriving, but it wasn't because of their open court assault. Their fastbreak points per game fell to 15.6 in the month of February and they no longer were among the league leaders in the category.
But after a dominant February, the Heat's offense has come back to Earth and the fastbreaks are few and far between. The deceleration was underscored in Monday's loss to the Indiana Pacers when the Heat scored just four points in the open court. In the meantime, the high-powered offense has been in a freefall since they lost to the Lakers on March 4 and the "pace and space" offense is nothing but a memory.
Below is a chart of the Heat's offensive efficiency across the season, shown as a 10-game trailing average. It answers the question: "How well have the Heat scored over the past 10 games?" We look at offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) because it strips the inflationary effect of pace (a super fast team's points per game numbers overstate its effectiveness.)
The Heat's offense peaked at the Utah Jazz game and then it's all downhill from there.
Pay close attention to the color of the line. We've added another layer to the graph to illustrate the disappearance of fastbreak points. The stronger the red, the greater the percentage of Heat points generated from fastbreaks. Notice how it's blood red for the first 10 or 15 games of the season and then -- poof -- the Heat abandoned their fastbreak game.
Why did the Heat stop running? Dwyane Wade got hurt. After that, the Heat were forced to switch up their attack, hit the brakes and insert a 3-point shooter in the lineup. The fast break points dwindled in his absence, but it never really returned.
What do we have to blame for that? The Heat's "pace and space" offense was met with skepticism around the league for two reasons: a) history tells us that teams who vow to run fast in the preseason rarely actually do; b) the condensed season is exponentially taxing on the players. Sure, the Heat might have been the most athletic and conditioned team heading into the season, but even for them, sprinting through a marathon season was a tall task especially when the organization has rarely, if ever played up-tempo.
Another thing is going on here that isn't captured in the graph above, but is equally important. The shooting has been terrible. Over the past few weeks, the Heat couldn't hit water if they threw a rock in Biscayne Bay. Since the All-Star break, 3-point shootout contestant Mario Chalmers is converting 34 percent of his shots from the floor and 30 percent from downtown. Norris Cole? He's shooting an abysmal 27 percent from the floor. Even LeBron has watched his field goal percentage drop from 55 percent to 50 percent pre- and post-All-Star break, respectively. Wade and Bosh have watched their shooting rates sink as well.
So not only have the Heat stopped running, but they've stopped splashing the ball through the net. Are the two interrelated? It's hard to say. If this is a team that is fatigued from sprinting out of the gate, they're showing it in the numbers. The Heat's offense has been in decline over the past month and they'll need to bounce back in a big way against the Dallas Mavericks, a tough defensive-minded team, on Thursday.
Dwyane Wade's silent fourth quarter
March, 26, 2012
Mar 26
10:28
AM ET
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
For the first time in Dwyane Wade's career, he returned to the bench "shotless" in the fourth quarter.
Dwyane Wade didn't want to comment about the offense after losing to Oklahoma City on Sunday.
"I'd rather not talk about it," Wade told reporters.
Why? It's hard to know precisely why Wade avoided elaborating further, but there's no question that this might have something to do with it:
For the first time in Wade's career, he didn't take a shot from the floor or a free throw in the fourth quarter (minimum five minutes of playing time).
No shots, no freebies from the charity stripe, not even a turnover. Wade didn't "use" a possession all quarter with a field goal attempt, free throw attempt or a turnover, something he hasn't done in the 496 fourth quarters that qualified. Wade normally uses 30.2 percent of the Heat's possessions -- or about one every three plays -- while on the floor in the fourth quarter this season, but his usage rate was a stunning 0.0 percent on Sunday.
How could that happen?
There were a variety of factors. For starters, Wade wasn't the primary ball-handler in the fourth quarter. LeBron James dribbled the ball up the floor as the Heat's point guard down the stretch, taking on the playmaker role when the Heat were down by double-digits. If Wade had taken over point guard duties, there's little doubt that he would have at least taken a shot or two as he surveyed the defense. Wade did dribble the ball up the floor on one occasion, but tossed it to James as soon as he crossed halfcourt and James hit a mid-range jumper.
Secondly, it's not as if the Heat deliberately stonewalled their superstar. Wade passed off plenty of opportunities to score, instead letting his teammates take the shot. On multiple occasions down the stretch, you could see Wade actively pointing toward Shane Battier on the wing, a signal for James or Chris Bosh to give Battier the ball for a 3-point attempt. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't.
That doesn't mean Wade didn't want the ball. Actually, on one particularly fastbreak opportunity, as our own Brian Windhorst noted, Wade ran past James Harden on the right wing and James failed to feed him the ball. Sure, James would have had to thread the needle to complete the pass, but that hasn't stopped James before. Wade was visibly frustrated that the play wasn't made.
Credit the Thunder defense for aggressively swarming James and Wade on the ball. On the occasions that Wade did try to initiate the offense, the Thunder used their length and activity to force a pass to a weaker scorer (this is what I call the Thunder's "Operation: Anyone But Wade Or LeBron" strategy). Also, the Thunder didn't turn the ball over very often, which is the best way to keep Wade at bay.
Furthermore, the X's-and-O's often called for Wade standing on the wing, watching James initiate pick-and-rolls on the other side of the floor. This was an issue in opening months of the Big Three era and it was striking to see the loitering and passivity come again on the national stage. Erik Spoelstra has made it a point to limit his play calls and emphasize improvisational and free-flowing basketball this season. This is the downside to that laissez-faire coaching philosophy.
To be sure, the Heat will review the game film and try to correct their late-game issues from Sunday. Getting one of the most unstoppable attackers fully invested and active in the offense shouldn't be a problem, but it was against the Thunder. One game isn't enough of a sample size to call it a trend so it's probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly.
But the good thing about a condensed season is that we don't have to wait that long to test that theory; the Heat play the Pacers in just a few hours.
LeBron, D-Wade sound off on hero-ball
March, 10, 2012
Mar 10
11:02
AM ET
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade explain their mentality in late-game situations.
MIAMI -- Dwyane Wade and LeBron James have made a habit of passing off potential game-winning shots lately.
Last weekend against the Utah Jazz, James passed to Udonis Haslem for a go-ahead jumper in the closing seconds, but Haslem missed. The majority of the public wished James had taken the shot himself, even if it probably wasn't the higher percentage play. And on Wednesday, Wade faced a similar situation in the closing minutes and this time, Haslem and Chris Bosh made the Wade-fed jumpers. Similar process, different results.
In both instances, James and Wade avoided hero-ball. You've seen hero-ball before. In crunchtime, stars like to take that pull-up or fadeaway jumper with the game clock winding down. That's the play of the so-called hero, even if teammates are wide open waiting for a pass. That's the play of the so-called hero, even if the chances of being a hero -- winning the game -- are very slim.
Wade understands the fan's fascination with hero-ball. He lived it, too.
"We all grew up in an era watching Michael Jordan and obviously Kobe Bryant," Wade said. "A lot of those guys make unbelievable shots to win games. A lot of fans want to see their favorite players take those shots. Hit or miss, they want to see them take those shots."
Jordan's late-game heroics probably bred a generation of stars trying to recapture his magic. LeBron, too, alluding to Jordan's shot-making abilities when talking about hero-ball.
"At times you need hero-ball," James said. A lot of big shots have come from big games from hero-ball. Michael Jordan has made shots that you’d call hero-ball, and you don’t take those from him."
But for Jordan, it wasn't all hero-ball, all the time. Fans want to see Jordan hit the shot, but they also just want to win.
"But he’s also made the play where he passed to John Paxson or passed to Steve Kerr for the game-winner," James said. "You just play the game the right way and do whatever it takes in that point in time."
The average team in the NBA assists on less than half (46 percent) of their field goals when the score is within three points in the final minute of the game. The Heat? They have assisted six of their 10 made field goals in that situation, giving them the fifth-highest assisted rate in the league. Although it's not a perfect measure of team ball, it's an indication that they're not hogging it in crunchtime.
"For those of us who play the game of basketball, sometimes that shot is there and you feel it and you take it," Wade said. "And sometimes it’s not and you understand that someone might have a better shot than you."
With that said, James isn't about to suddenly abandon his isolation game that leads to long-distance shots or his favorite step-back move at the end of quarters.
"There are times when there’s an [isolation] situation and you make a big shot," James said. "There are times where you create two on the ball and you hit a teammate for an open shot. But I’m an [isolation] guy myself so I would never down [isolation] plays."
Wade asserts that the Heat have grown leaps and bounds from where they were last season in the clutch. He admitted that in late-game situations last season, there was doubt after they lost a close game and whether they made the right play with the game on the line.
This season's different in crunchtime, according to Wade. The comfort level with teammates and their games has risen and the hero-ball shot isn't always the best option.
"It’s not always going to go our way and every time we’ve been in that situation this year, we’ve walked away from it with our heads up, we felt good about it," Wade said. "Last year, I can’t say that we said that. When we walked away from those moments, there were a lot of questions on our minds, from all of us. It was tough.
"This year, we get it. At the end of the game, we trust everybody that’s on the court that they can make a play and make a shot. Same thing that people said about us in Utah, we came back and do the same thing the next game at home and it works for us. That’s why we can’t worry about the outside perception of the Miami Heat. We can only control what goes on in here and what we believe."
Dwyane Wade avoids the 'home-choke'
March, 8, 2012
Mar 8
11:22
AM ET
Issac Baldizon/NBAE
Research shows that LeBron James might've hurt Dwyane Wade's chances by quieting the crowd.
MIAMI -- The photo above captures a moment in Wednesday's game that many will remember, but not for the reason you might suspect.
There's LeBron James raising his arms up and down, doing his best to hush the home crowd as Dwyane Wade prepared to take his critical free throws. The fans at AmericanAirlines Arena were still rowdy after the Heat forced the Hawks, who were down by one-point with under 10 seconds left, to foul in desperation and send Wade to the free throw line. If Wade nailed both free throws, the Heat would all but seal the victory.
This was a moment that required utmost concentration and James wanted his teammate to have the best chances at hitting the free throw. So he did what most teammates would think to do: quiet the crowd and free his teammate of any outside distractions.
"I just tried to let him focus on the free throw," James said after the game.
James' intentions were undoubtedly good, but here's the thing:
Hushing the crowd might have been precisely the wrong thing to do in that situation.
Huh?
Yes, let me explain.
Six days ago, two sharp researchers at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference presented an exhaustive study that examined whether basketball players are negatively-affected by moments of super-concentration. Matt Goldman and Justin Rao looked at over 300,000 free throws taken in the NBA since 2005 and found that in high-pressure (re: clutch) situations, the average NBA player shoots significantly worse when they are at home than on the road.
According to their research, home shooters generally shoot percentage points better in non-clutch situations, but get worse in the clutch, with performance ending up below that of road shooters.
This, obviously, runs contrary to the popular belief. The researchers hypothesized that this "home-choking" effect is evidence of a psychological phenomenon that causes us to over-think in stressful situations. Talking with NBA execs that attended the research presentation on Friday, this was one of the most fascinating kernels from the conference. The researchers stated their case:
"When taking a free-throw on the road, distraction is high while at home the 20,000 or so supportive souls are waiting in a nervous, quiet arena. It turns out that the latter environment is more difficult—choking occurs for the home team, which we argue is due to increased self-focus, hampering the natural ability of a player to make a free-throw. This is consistent with the psychological notion that letting down a supportive audience is stressful."
If Wade was stressed on Wednesday, he certainly didn't show it. After James waved down the home crowd, Wade nailed both free throws and sealed the win. Of course, a sample size of two free throws does not disprove a study that examined about half a million shots. But it was still a poignant moment coming on the heels of the weekend's Sloan conference attended by representatives from 27 of the 30 NBA teams.
After Wednesday's game, Wade was presented (very briefly) with the conclusions from the paper and came away surprised that his preferences were validated: If Wade had his choice, he'd rather shoot free throws in front of the opposing team's crowd. Why? For competitive reasons.
"If they’re loud, I want to shut them up," Wade said with a laugh in the locker room. "But either way, I love being in that position."
On the season, Wade is now shooting 4-for-6 from the free throw line at home in the final three minutes of the game and the score within five points; on the road, he is 5-for-6 in such situations. Hardly evidence of anything, but these things start to rise to the surface when we're talking about over 300,000 shots. (Sidenote: Manu Ginobili was the lone exception in the paper -- a player who significantly shot better in clutch situations in front of the home crowd).
Many focused on Wade's free throws from Wednesday because he just missed a similar critical free throw on Friday in Utah. But after the game, several Heat players were viewing it through the lens of the paper. Is there anything to the idea that arenas can be too quiet when taking that ultra-important free throw?
James was asked and offered his response.
"No such thing," James said. "No such thing."
Unlike Wade, James chose the quiet surroundings as opposed to the loud one, when presented with the toss-up, perhaps as a hat-tip to the Miami fans. And Chris Bosh? He says it doesn't bother him either way.
"You know, it’s kind of a weird thing, it doesn’t matter to me," Bosh said. "Every big free throw that I remember, I don’t remember the crowd noise. If you’re listening to the noise, or to the lack of noise, you’re not giving 100 percent to the free throw."
Shane Battier, who is the rare NBA player who's hungry to digest every statistical study in the sport, shared Bosh's sentiment.
"Honestly, I don’t think you ever notice it," Battier said of the crowd noise. "If anything, you feel the energy. Now, do you feel the lack of energy? I don’t know."
Battier did admit that he probably wasn't the right guy to ask about the topic.
“Gosh, it’s been so long since I’ve shot a free throw of significance, or a free throw for that matter," Battier said with a self-deprecating laugh.
Think of you're own life experiences. Would you prefer to have a dead-silent room when taking an exam, or would you rather have the window open so you could hear the white noise from outside? As the old saying goes, silence can be deafening.
Wade evidently wasn't fazed by the quiet hush of the home crowd on Wednesday, but he confessed that the volume was alarming at first.
“You know what, I did hear the noise when I first walked up to the line, it was real loud," Wade said. "It's normally like that on the road. When I get to the line, I’m just tuned in to what I need to do."
Apparently, sometimes players can be too tuned in. But not Wade on Wednesday.
Meet the NBA's best halfcourt team
March, 7, 2012
Mar 7
2:16
PM ET
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the Heat have quietly pummeled teams in the halfcourt.
The Heat's offense is really good.
This is no secret if you've been paying attention to the NBA's goings-on this season. If you take a look at the list of most potent offenses in the league, the Heat stand head-and-shoulders above the competition; the Heat are currently scoring 108.1 points every 100 trips down the floor, which places them first in the offensive efficiency rankings.
More instructive, though, is the cushion that separates them from the rest of the league. The Oklahoma City, for example, rank second in offensive efficiency at 106.1, a 2-point difference which is roughly the same distance between the 10th-ranked 76ers offense and the 17th-ranked Nets offense. Two points, on the aggregate, is no small thing.
The Heat's offense is really good, that much we know. But where they're really good might surprise you. The overriding narrative -- which holds plenty of merit --is that the Heat's new up-tempo playing style has driven their rise. And this is true, the Heat are playing much faster than they did last season. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have stepped on the gas and the Heat have, at times, blown past their opponents in the open court.
But that's not the whole story. While it's true that the Heat have catapulted through the ranks thanks in part to their dominant transition assault, there's more to this team than highlight reels and fastbreak dunks. In fact, four out of every five Heat plays on offense don't occur in transition, according to Synergy video tracking. (Synergy tracks every possession in the NBA and places each offensive play into two groups: transition and halfcourt.) The Heat, like all teams, only spend a handful of plays in transition per game and mostly engage in halfcourt warfare.
So what happens in the halfcourt?
More dominance.
Here's where the narrative separates from reality. When you look at how the Heat get their points, you'll find that they get the majority of their points, not from racing up and down the floor in high-velocity brilliance, but from pounding teams when the game slows down in the halfcourt. This fact was underlined in Tuesday's blowout win over the New Jersey Nets.
Amazingly, the Heat built up a 38-point lead on the short-handed Nets with exactly none of those points coming on fastbreaks. Not one. Their first fastbreak points on Tuesday came late in the fourth quarter when Norris Cole laid it in after a pass from James Jones. LeBron, Wade and Chris Bosh were not involved, unless you count cheerleading from the bench as being involved.
So it's as good a time as any to point this out: the Heat rank as the most efficient halfcourt offense in the league, according to Synergy tracking. Said in laymen's terms, the Heat get more out of their halfcourt possessions than any other team. And they have been doing this for quite some time.
Below is an interactive chart that illustrates the Heat's separation from the league in halfcourt efficiency (points per 100 possesions). I've also shown how much they "use" halfcourt offense as a percentage of their total offense. As a handy rule, teams want to be in the upper-half of the chart. Teams that use halfcourt offense more often than others will find themselves on the right-side of the chart.
This probably doesn't jive with the national perception. Since the Heat have played at a faster pace this season, their sharpness in the halfcourt gets lost in the analysis. And so far this season, 83.8 percent of the Heat's plays have come in the halfcourt and a look at their efficiency reveals they've scored 94.7 points every 100 possessions. By comparison, the Oklahoma City Thunder check in at second place with 91.7 points every 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks -- a team that garners a considerable amount of praise in the halfcourt -- ranks right around average (86.5 points).
So what's going on here? When did the Heat start flipping the script? A few things have stood out recently. For one, the Heat have relied more on LeBron and Wade in the post this season compared to last. Although it's not a straight one-for-one trade, these two superstars have abandoned most of their ill-advised 3-point tries in exchange for attacks in the paint with their back to the basket.
Secondly, they're spreading the floor with sharpshooters. The Heat's designated Dranos -- Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, Shane Battier and James Jones -- have shot a scorching 44 percent from downtown (172-for-390). The threat of perimeter shooters has acted as a decongestant for LeBron, Wade and Bosh to penetrate into the paint as well as provided a safety valve when defenses decide to collapse.
And lastly, as part of the Heat's pace-and-space offense, Spoelstra has built in more cuts to the basket from the weakside, encouraging more movement and disruption for the defense. Their offense generated from cuts has risen from 7.0 percent last season to 9.5 percent this season.
The big implication here is that the Heat shown that they're well-equipped for playoff-style basketball, a development that flies in the face of the conventional wisdom. While teams slam on the brakes in the postseason, the Heat have actually done the same in the past few weeks. And have thrived in that style of play. The Heat's pace has slowed down considerably since jumping out of the gate and they've more recently focused on picking apart teams in the halfcourt.
So if you think the Heat are just a fastbreak team, well, think again.
Orlando-to-Orlando: A dominant two weeks
February, 24, 2012
Feb 24
11:31
AM ET
Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE
The Heat smothered Jeremy Lin and the Knicks just like they did to each foe over the past two weeks.
MIAMI -- If Erik Spoelstra was looking for some vacation reading this weekend, he might have found it in the quote book following his team’s resounding win over the New York Knicks on Thursday night.
Knicks sensation Jeremy Lin was asked whether the Heat were the best defense he’s faced since taking over the starting gig. His response?
“Probably,” Lin said. “I can’t remember another game where it was hard to just take dribbles.”
Knowing Spoelstra’s affinity for suffocating defense, he might just read that line over and over in glee while he rests up over the break. As six of his players head to Orlando for the All-Star festivities, the defense has come a long way and the Heat are back as the clear favorites for the title.
Two weeks ago, the Heat were licking their wounds in Orlando. It was the morning after they had just sustained an embarrassing loss in Orlando, hemorrhaging 102 points to middle-of-the-pack offense in the first game of a six-game roadtrip that included the dreaded back-to-back-to-back. The All-Star break resided two weeks into the future, but as is the case with vacations, it probably looked like a lifetime away considering the daunting road ahead.
But since that loss, the Heat have rattled off eight consecutive victories -- each by double-figures, no less -- and have entered the All-Star break with a league-best 27-7 record.
The Heat’s average point margin over the past two weeks?
16.5.
What a difference two weeks makes.
Those two weeks ended up setting the stage for the greatest basketball the Heat have played in the Big Three era, capped off by a convincing victory over the Knicks in what felt like the biggest regular season game in years. How big was it? The average ticket price for Thursday’s game, according to ticket data tracker TiqIq.com, exceeded the price of tickets to Game 2 of last season’s NBA Finals in Miami.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra couldn’t have scripted Lin’s postgame quote -- or the way the Heat rolled into the All-Star break -- any better if he tried. And not just because he gets the weekend off while boasting the Eastern Conference’s top winning percentage. You could see his satisfaction by the response he gave when asked what he would be doing with his time off.
“None of your business,” Spoelstra replied while smiling ear-to-ear.
Spoelstra has earned the time off. He just watched his team stifle yet another squad on the foundation of something he’s built for years: defensive mastery. Spoelstra has long maintained that the Heat’s identity has nothing to do with the highlight reels. It has nothing to do with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh’s offensive fireworks or their sharpened chemistry that has been built from scratch.
Spoelstra has long repeated the message that if the Heat want to get where they want to go, the road is paved through the defensive end of the floor. And now everyone is talking not about the Heat’s devastating defense. When asked to define the team’s identity, James echoed Spoelstra’s mantra.
“Our staple is defensively to help each other, fly around, communicate and try to make guys uncomfortable,” James said. “We just try to be disruptive and force turnovers, and we did that [on Thursday].”
The Knicks mustered just 88 points in Thursday’s game on top of the team’s lowest field goal percentage (39 percent) since Lin took over the starting gig and became an overnight global sensation. Through aggressive pick-and-roll attacks, the Heat did their best to suffocate any air-space that Lin and the rest of the Knicks could possibly enjoy in the halfcourt.
Two weeks ago, there were outside concerns about that Spoelstra-branded defense that preached basket protection sometimes at the expense of attention to the perimeter. After the Magic nailed a staggering 17 3-pointers on Feb. 9, it seemed that there were deep holes in the Heat’s vaunted defense that left them vulnerable to 3-point shooters.
So much for that theory. What’s changed since then? Not much.
“I wish I could tell you that we developed some master plan, I don’t know what you guys are looking for,” Spoelstra said. “We tried this same plan in Orlando and they lit us up for 17 threes and we looked horrible.”
Now, they look unstoppable. It’s hard to imagine how the Heat could have barreled into the All-Star break any better. During that post-Orlando stretch, they beat their last eight opponents, four of which were .500 or better on game day, by a total of 132 points. Their offensive efficiency over that span? 114.1 points per 100 possessions, or about five points better than any other team. Their defensive efficiency in the past two weeks? 94.3 points per 100 possessions, sharper than any team in the East and more than three points better than their own mark up to that point. Considering that statistically defense tends to suffer more than offense with no rest, the defensive output is that much more impressive.
To top it all off, Miami finished February with a record of 11-2 and with 10 of the wins coming by at least 12 points. According to Elias Sports Bureau, among the hundreds of teams that played 13-or-fewer games wins in a calendar month, the Heat are the first team ever to post 10 such wins.
Thanks to the recent surge, the Heat find themselves with easily the top offense in the league and have climbed into the top-five in defensive efficiency. The new high-octane offense raised questions about the ability to maintain their defensive brand of basketball. The Heat have proved over the past two weeks that’s it’s not an either-or endeavor; they can dominate both ends of the floor like they did against the Knicks.
After two weeks of bludgeoning teams in historic fashion, the Heat are back in Orlando once again, having re-established their identity as a dominant defensive club. Spoelstra would have it no other way.
