Taking the Temperature: 10 games in
November, 16, 2010
11/16/10
9:42
AM ET
Tom Haberstroh will periodically check in on the numbers to reveal hidden trends within the Miami Heat. Today’s edition of Taking the Temperature comes after the Heat’s first 10 games of the season.
THE KEY TO IGNITION
You’d think that a team led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and a standard point guard would turn on the nitro-boosters and mercilessly run teams out of the gym. But you’d be wrong.
Sure, the Heat have had their moments this season. But if you watch them outside of the highlight reels, the Heat have actually shown restraint in the early going. Synergy tells us that 12.8 percent of their offense has been generated off of transition. The NBA average? 12.8 percent.
It’s not enough to merely point out that they’re not getting in transition at every opportunity. The question is why aren’t they pushing the ball?
It all starts with defense. Turnovers, or non-whistle turnovers in particular, are the seeds of transition. A deflected pass, a cookie-jar poke on the perimeter, or a blocked shot in the paint will typically ignite the fast break. But the Heat rank 19th in steals per minute this season. Take a gander at the steals leaderboard for any season and you’ll notice a clear trend: point guards saturate the list.
And that’s one reason the Heat aren’t running all the time. The most steal-happy position is manned by Carlos Arroyo. As the starting point guard for the Heat, Arroyo prides himself on staying in front of opposing point guards but you won’t catch him leaving his man to pick-pocket an unsuspecting player or cutting off passing lanes. As a result, Arroyo ranks dead-last in steals per minute among regular point guards. Three steals, 211 minutes.
Now, some of that low interception rate is by design. The Heat’s defensive system relies heavily on cooperative help defense, not risky maneuvers that sometimes lead to transition opportunities. But if the Heat decide they want to generate more turnovers, they can look at an internal solution: Mario Chalmers.
Aside from 3-point shooting, the third-year player brings a veritable knack for stealing the basketball. In his rookie season, the Kansas product ranked third in the NBA in steal percentage (the percentage of opponent possessions that ended with a steal by the player while on the floor). In fact, he already has as many steals as Arroyo does this season -- in fifth the playing time.
Of course, steals are often times the shiny residue of risky play but Chalmers’ active hands may hold the key to more transition plays in Miami. The issue for Chalmers is getting his left ankle healthy. After practice Monday, Chalmers said that defense was his top priority after getting back on the court. That's music to head coach Erik Spoelstra's ears. Because with Wade and LeBron waiting to fly, a Heat steal may be the highest payoff play in the game.
LEBRON AS FACILITATOR
An old basketball adage states that the true mark of a superstar is someone who makes his teammates better. So far this season, LeBron James is doing just that.
In the six games of November, LeBron has averaged 10.8 assists per game which ties him for third in the NBA with Chris Paul (Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash rank first and second respectively). When James joined forces in Miami, many envisioned, or hoped, that James would switch on his inner-Magic Johnson and make opponents pay for collapsing on him in penetration by dishing it out to the open man.
Armed with vision unparalleled by someone of his height and quickness unrivaled for someone of his weight, James routinely needles his way through the lane, drawing multiple defenders to him, and still finds a way to kick out the ball through the web of converging arms. When people say Wade and James are too similar to coexist, that last step throws a solid wrench in that theory. Looking at the two ball-dominant superstars, there's no question who sets the table for perimeter shooters: it’s LeBron.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, the only shooter that receives an equal share of set-up passes from Wade and LeBron is forward James Jones (the two have each fed the Miami native 10 assists this season). But the others? All James. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has yet to receive an assist from Wade this season, while the 7-foot-3 center has garnered 18 from LeBron. Same, too, goes for Eddie House, who has seven assisted field goals from LeBron and none from Wade. Wade’s long-time teammate Udonis Haslem? Two from Wade and 16 from LeBron. Combined, LeBron has 41 assists to House, Haslem, and Ilgauskas while Wade has only fed them two dimes.
Plain and simple, shooters garner wide open looks from LeBron’s magnetic game. One way to key in on this effect is to pull up Synergy’s library of shooting data. Looking at Haslem’s catch-and-shoots (non-dribble jumpers) from 2009-10, we find that he was unguarded on 39.9 percent of his jumpers with the other 60.1 percent falling under the contest category. This season, with LeBron in the fold, that split has flipped the other way: 60.5 percent unguarded and 39.5 guarded. Not surprisingly, his conversion rate on his jumpers this season has soared from 46.9 percent to 53.5 percent. That’s the LeBron effect.
Now, not all the credit should go to LeBron – shooters owe some of their open space to Wade and Bosh as well -- but LeBron’s playmaking abilities have unquestionably raised the effectiveness of his shooting comrades. Haslem, Ilgauskas, House, and Jones are enjoying the sharpest shooting campaigns of their respective careers.
It’s one thing to draw multiple defenders, but LeBron’s unique passing abilities capitalize on that attention in ways others can’t.
THE BIG 3: THE SUM AND THE PARTS
Here’s an early look at how the Heat have performed with different combinations of the Big 3.
Tons of information to digest here but let’s walk through the main points.
When the Big 3 are on the floor together (which has been a total of 244 minutes so far), the Heat have outscored opponents by 52 points. On a per 48 minute basis, that equates to about 10.2 points. In other words, if you lined up all the possessions with James, Wade, and Bosh on the floor and sliced them into 48 minute increments, teams would lose by 10.2 points on average. Fortunately for opponents, they don't have the stamina of an Ironman so they won't be manning the court all game long.
So forgetting the trio for a moment, which tandem has been the most successful so far? That would be the LeBron and Bosh combo platter. Whether it was the last trade deadline or in the offseason, people often wondered what the Cavaliers would look like if Bosh joined LeBron in Cleveland. Well, so far in 2010-11, they’ve outscored opponents by 21 points (54-33) and stretch that to a full 48 minutes and they destroy their opponents by about 40 points over that time. Bosh and Wade? A mere 16-point lead every 48 minutes.
But for me, the most interesting morsel in this symphony of data is that the only triumvirate member who has survived without his two counterparts is LeBron, who has gotten the most time to himself as well (70 minutes). For now, this is small sample size theatre but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we go forward.
Why might head coach Erik Spoelstra typically choose LeBron to bridge the gap between the first and second quarter? Because he's shown he can.
THE KEY TO IGNITION
You’d think that a team led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and a standard point guard would turn on the nitro-boosters and mercilessly run teams out of the gym. But you’d be wrong.
Sure, the Heat have had their moments this season. But if you watch them outside of the highlight reels, the Heat have actually shown restraint in the early going. Synergy tells us that 12.8 percent of their offense has been generated off of transition. The NBA average? 12.8 percent.
It’s not enough to merely point out that they’re not getting in transition at every opportunity. The question is why aren’t they pushing the ball?
It all starts with defense. Turnovers, or non-whistle turnovers in particular, are the seeds of transition. A deflected pass, a cookie-jar poke on the perimeter, or a blocked shot in the paint will typically ignite the fast break. But the Heat rank 19th in steals per minute this season. Take a gander at the steals leaderboard for any season and you’ll notice a clear trend: point guards saturate the list.
And that’s one reason the Heat aren’t running all the time. The most steal-happy position is manned by Carlos Arroyo. As the starting point guard for the Heat, Arroyo prides himself on staying in front of opposing point guards but you won’t catch him leaving his man to pick-pocket an unsuspecting player or cutting off passing lanes. As a result, Arroyo ranks dead-last in steals per minute among regular point guards. Three steals, 211 minutes.
Now, some of that low interception rate is by design. The Heat’s defensive system relies heavily on cooperative help defense, not risky maneuvers that sometimes lead to transition opportunities. But if the Heat decide they want to generate more turnovers, they can look at an internal solution: Mario Chalmers.
Aside from 3-point shooting, the third-year player brings a veritable knack for stealing the basketball. In his rookie season, the Kansas product ranked third in the NBA in steal percentage (the percentage of opponent possessions that ended with a steal by the player while on the floor). In fact, he already has as many steals as Arroyo does this season -- in fifth the playing time.
Of course, steals are often times the shiny residue of risky play but Chalmers’ active hands may hold the key to more transition plays in Miami. The issue for Chalmers is getting his left ankle healthy. After practice Monday, Chalmers said that defense was his top priority after getting back on the court. That's music to head coach Erik Spoelstra's ears. Because with Wade and LeBron waiting to fly, a Heat steal may be the highest payoff play in the game.
LEBRON AS FACILITATOR
An old basketball adage states that the true mark of a superstar is someone who makes his teammates better. So far this season, LeBron James is doing just that.
In the six games of November, LeBron has averaged 10.8 assists per game which ties him for third in the NBA with Chris Paul (Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash rank first and second respectively). When James joined forces in Miami, many envisioned, or hoped, that James would switch on his inner-Magic Johnson and make opponents pay for collapsing on him in penetration by dishing it out to the open man.
Armed with vision unparalleled by someone of his height and quickness unrivaled for someone of his weight, James routinely needles his way through the lane, drawing multiple defenders to him, and still finds a way to kick out the ball through the web of converging arms. When people say Wade and James are too similar to coexist, that last step throws a solid wrench in that theory. Looking at the two ball-dominant superstars, there's no question who sets the table for perimeter shooters: it’s LeBron.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, the only shooter that receives an equal share of set-up passes from Wade and LeBron is forward James Jones (the two have each fed the Miami native 10 assists this season). But the others? All James. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has yet to receive an assist from Wade this season, while the 7-foot-3 center has garnered 18 from LeBron. Same, too, goes for Eddie House, who has seven assisted field goals from LeBron and none from Wade. Wade’s long-time teammate Udonis Haslem? Two from Wade and 16 from LeBron. Combined, LeBron has 41 assists to House, Haslem, and Ilgauskas while Wade has only fed them two dimes.
Plain and simple, shooters garner wide open looks from LeBron’s magnetic game. One way to key in on this effect is to pull up Synergy’s library of shooting data. Looking at Haslem’s catch-and-shoots (non-dribble jumpers) from 2009-10, we find that he was unguarded on 39.9 percent of his jumpers with the other 60.1 percent falling under the contest category. This season, with LeBron in the fold, that split has flipped the other way: 60.5 percent unguarded and 39.5 guarded. Not surprisingly, his conversion rate on his jumpers this season has soared from 46.9 percent to 53.5 percent. That’s the LeBron effect.
Now, not all the credit should go to LeBron – shooters owe some of their open space to Wade and Bosh as well -- but LeBron’s playmaking abilities have unquestionably raised the effectiveness of his shooting comrades. Haslem, Ilgauskas, House, and Jones are enjoying the sharpest shooting campaigns of their respective careers.
It’s one thing to draw multiple defenders, but LeBron’s unique passing abilities capitalize on that attention in ways others can’t.
THE BIG 3: THE SUM AND THE PARTS
Here’s an early look at how the Heat have performed with different combinations of the Big 3.
Tons of information to digest here but let’s walk through the main points.
When the Big 3 are on the floor together (which has been a total of 244 minutes so far), the Heat have outscored opponents by 52 points. On a per 48 minute basis, that equates to about 10.2 points. In other words, if you lined up all the possessions with James, Wade, and Bosh on the floor and sliced them into 48 minute increments, teams would lose by 10.2 points on average. Fortunately for opponents, they don't have the stamina of an Ironman so they won't be manning the court all game long.
So forgetting the trio for a moment, which tandem has been the most successful so far? That would be the LeBron and Bosh combo platter. Whether it was the last trade deadline or in the offseason, people often wondered what the Cavaliers would look like if Bosh joined LeBron in Cleveland. Well, so far in 2010-11, they’ve outscored opponents by 21 points (54-33) and stretch that to a full 48 minutes and they destroy their opponents by about 40 points over that time. Bosh and Wade? A mere 16-point lead every 48 minutes.
But for me, the most interesting morsel in this symphony of data is that the only triumvirate member who has survived without his two counterparts is LeBron, who has gotten the most time to himself as well (70 minutes). For now, this is small sample size theatre but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we go forward.
Why might head coach Erik Spoelstra typically choose LeBron to bridge the gap between the first and second quarter? Because he's shown he can.



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