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In another postseason installment of the Heat Index's 5-on-5 series, our writers give their takes on the storylines before the Heat host the Knicks in Game 5 Wednesday night.

1. Fact or Fiction: The Knicks were smart to hold Jeremy Lin out.

Jim Cavan, KnickerBlogger: Fact. Look, we get the whole Willis Reed resurrection narrative thing. But Lin ain’t no Reed, and these ain’t no 1970 Knicks. Besides, I’m not totally convinced that a 60 percent Lin is any better than whatever 100 percent point platoon the Knicks end up going with. Better to wait until next year. We Knicks faithful are used to that anyway.

Tom Haberstroh: Fact. This was fascinating to watch because the organization needed to weigh the short-term payoff versus the long-term risks. Play him now and try to fight your way back into the series at the risk of another knee injury? Sit him and ensure that you have a healthy point guard on the roster for next season? They chose the latter, and that was the smart decision; the realistic upside in playing him just isn't there.

Michael Wallace: Fact. If Lin isn't ready to return from that knee injury, then he simply isn't ready. No need to rush it, especially after seeing two of his backcourt teammates blow out their knees already in this series. It just doesn't make sense to risk setting yourself back for the start of next season in order to play in a series that seems all but over at this point.

Brian Windhorst: Fact. This is a complete no-brainer, to be honest. Let's assume you're Lin. Your knee doesn't feel right, probably more than you're even letting on to the media. Then you see Iman Shumpert and Baron Davis have to be carried off the court in the same week. Are you going to rush it?

Jared Zwerling, ESPN New York: Fact. First of all, Lin hasn’t had ample court time to prepare for the Heat’s swarming pick-and-roll defense, which forced him into eight turnovers on Feb. 23. In addition, playoff games, in general, are a different beast. In recent scrimmages, Lin has moved a bit gingerly and hasn't played with full intensity, so there's no way he'd ready for that level of physicality. After a season with so many injuries, the Knicks would look stupid if Lin suffered a setback for a vain cause. They should invest in his health to make sure he's their long-term solution at point guard.

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2. Fact or Fiction: Stoudemire's 20-and-10 was a bigger deal than Anthony's 41.

Cavan: Fact. Carmelo Anthony has been on a rampage for a while now, but Amare Stoudemire's one-handed -- and level-headed -- performance proved how important his high-caliber play is to the success and effectiveness of the orange-and-blue. The optimist in me hopes his run-in with a fire squelcher proves to be a turning point. The realist in me thinks he just recovered really well from punching glass. Either way, the Knicks need a similarly sizzling Stoudemire on Wednesday night.

Haberstroh: Fact. No one saw this coming. The Heat knew he had no jumper and no ability to comfortably drive left, but still he managed to register his first 20-and-10 game in weeks. You have to, well, hand it to the guy.

Wallace: Fact. Considering the Knicks' shortage of players who can actually create their own shot, rebound and get to the free throw line, it baffles me that some thought New York was better off in this series without Stoudemire and no adequate replacement. Miami was able to absorb high-scoring games from Melo before and still won. But there's no excuse for allowing Stoudemire to go off for 20-and-10 with one good hand.

Windhorst: Fact. Anthony won the game for the Knicks, but does everyone appreciate what Stoudemire did? His hand was being kept together by staples and stitches. The palm. The area that touches the ball. You cannot numb this area because you can't play with numb hands. You can't wear too large of a pad because it has the same effect. So you play one-handed. And you go for 20 and 10. Pretty remarkable, no?

Zwerling: Fact. Just hear it from Anthony: "It was big-time. I was surprised at what he was able to do, due to his hand. But for him to just come back and just prove to us and to prove to everybody that what he did was a mistake ... it was a minor setback, he came back, he bounced back and we respect that out of him." The Knicks had been struggling to find a significant second scorer in Games 1 through 3 to complement Anthony, and Stoudemire provided that "punch," as Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after the game.

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3. Fact or Fiction: LeBron should be primary defender on Anthony.

Cavan: Fiction: The one glimmer of hope the Stoudemire-less Knicks had for stealing Game 3 -- namely playing Anthony at the 4 and forcing the Heat to throw Bosh on him in stretches -- might've flickered out. If I were Erik Spoelstra, I'd start a hot-shooting Shane Battier at the 3 and put James on Anthony as much as possible. Derp.

Haberstroh: Fact. Call me crazy, but I'd want James, the best isolation defender in the league, to guard the guy who lives on isolations. Battier isn't a poor defender against Anthony, far from it. He's just not the best option for the Heat. Udonis Haslem should take care of Tyson Chandler in normal circumstances; Sunday was the first time Haslem fouled out since Ricky Davis started for the Heat four years ago. Fluke situation.

Wallace: Fiction. For three games, I gave credit to Battier for doing his job and making Anthony work extremely hard to make difficult shots. Battier didn't stop doing his job in Game 4. Anthony just proved why he's an elite scorer in this league. Besides, James has been in foul trouble the past two games -- and Anthony has had calls go his way recently. Asking James to carry such a burden on both ends for extended periods in the playoffs is a bit much to ask.

Windhorst: Fact. At least in the clutch. The numbers speak for themselves. These teams have played five times over the past three weeks. It has been rather obvious with the eye test that Anthony doesn't drive on James as much and isn't able to create as much space against him.



Zwerling: Fact. While Mike Woodson and Spoelstra have given Battier credit for his defense on Anthony, the numbers don't lie. Anthony has been shooting 52.6 percent against Battier in the series, but only 29.3 percent against James. There aren't many players in the NBA who can match up physically and athletically with the Knicks' star, but James can, and he has made Anthony's catches and drives difficult. In Game 5, Anthony better hope his jump shot is on, like in Game 2. The emphasis on closing out the series should be enough motivation for James to guard Anthony down the stretch.

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4. Fact or Fiction: James should be ball handler on next do-or-die play.

Cavan: Faction. As with most crunch-time calls, it’s purely situational. If James is riding a Game 3-like fourth quarter, then sure, let him bring his boys home. He’s been getting to the rim pretty much at will, after all. But if Spoelstra sees an exploitable matchup or scheme better suited for Wade or even Bosh, there’s no reason the coach shouldn’t roll those dice.

Haberstroh: Fact. Not only is James the better option to run a pick-and-roll, but Wade is the better option as the basket cutter. Also, not enough people have mentioned this, but Bosh? He was open on the roll to the rim. Regardless, the most important thing is that all three of the Heat's stars are involved. That didn't happen in Game 4.

Wallace: Fiction. Perhaps he should. But I wouldn't define it as a flat-out fact. It depends on what kind of game James is having to that point. It depends on potential matchup issues. There's no one-answer-fits-all equation to this scenario. The luxury Miami has that few other teams (if any) have is that either Wade or James can make game-winning plays in that situation. Both have had failures in those moments, as well.

Windhorst: Fiction. Or Fact. Either way is fine from my point of view. There was nothing wrong with the idea of that play; it just wasn't executed. It would be interesting if James demanded the ball in that situation. But that hasn't been his position all season. Wade has three game winners this year.

Zwerling: Fiction. During the series, James and Wade have both been effective in the all-important fourth quarter. James has been getting to the line (7-for-8), averaging 8.7 points in the period on 44.4 percent shooting, while Wade has been doing it from midrange, shooting 10-for-18 (55.6 percent). They're equally dangerous in a do-or-die situation because they demand double-teams and can get into the lane. And that's where they pose a big threat as passers because of their ability to find one of the Heat's potent 3-point shooters.

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5. Fact or Fiction: Mike Bibby should be primary PG over Smith/Anthony.

Cavan: Fiction. Bibby has been somewhat effective off the ball, where he is better capable of hitting the glass (something he’s done well of late) and the occasional open J. If I’m Woodson, making Wade and James work as hard as possible in blanketing the ball-handling J.R. Smith or Anthony might be worth the price of the latter two getting gassed. Which sounds insane, and probably is.

Haberstroh: Fiction. Big dilemma for the Knicks. Don't know how they can hide Bibby defensively; he won't be able to guard Mike Miller. But I also don't know how the Knicks can get the shots they want with Smith and Anthony initiating from the top of the key. If Smith didn't turn into Toney Douglas all of a sudden, this wouldn't be a huge problem. The Knicks might have to just rely on Anthony at point. Gulp.

Wallace: Fact. Bibby isn't the player he was 10 minutes ago, let alone 10 years ago. But by process of elimination due to knee injuries, he's the only true hope the Knicks have at point guard. He still knows how to run a team and push the pace in stretches, even though his shot is inconsistent to nonexistent. Smith and Anthony will need to spell Bibby at times, but they shouldn't handle the bulk of the point guard duties. It takes away from their strengths.

Windhorst: Fact. No one would ever mistake Smith or Anthony for a point guard. They're pretty much the exact opposite.

Zwerling: Fiction. But it doesn’t really matter. Smith and Anthony are going to be handling the ball the majority of the time. What Bibby needs to be able to do is knock down the open 3-point shot off of Smith's and Anthony’s penetration, which he did in Game 4. Bibby hit two clutch long bombs at the end of the third quarter and the fourth to keep the Knicks ahead. At this point in his 14-year career, Bibby is really more of a glorified shooting guard because he’s not quick enough as a playmaker to put pressure on the Heat’s defense.

In another installment of the Heat Index's 3-on-3 series, our writers give their takes on the storylines before the Heat try to sweep the Knicks in Game 4.

1. Fact or Fiction: LeBron is right; there shouldn't be a champ asterisk.

Tom Haberstroh: Fact. When every other season has an unusual disruption, then it's no longer unusual. It's the status quo.

Michael Wallace: Fact. And beyond that, the NBA champ this season should get even more credit for surviving and winning in one of the most difficult and demanding seasons we've ever seen in any sport.

Brian Windhorst: Fact. There's a reason why championships are so valued, it takes so much to win one. You need luck, you need to avoid injuries, you need your opponents to have troubles. Injuries, bad luck and general insanity happens in every season, the team standing at the end is the champ not matter how it got there. If anything, winning this season should carry a little extra significance because it is so hard and abnormal.

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2. Fact or Fiction: The Heat have the three best players in the series.

Haberstroh: Fiction. As admirable as Chris Bosh has been as a third option for the Heat, I can't peg him ahead of Mike Bibby. Wait, did I say Mike Bibby? I meant Carmelo Anthony. Honestly, Bosh and Carmelo are probably neck-and-neck in value. Bosh plays both ends of the floor and doesn't mind making sacrifices for the good of the team. Carmelo's shot-creation ability is immensely valuable, even if he lacks in the efficiency department. Still, Carmelo's reputation far outpaces his actual on-court contributions.

Wallace: Fiction. Let's be real here for a second. Carmelo Anthony is a tad better and a more elite player than Chris Bosh. But there's no shame in the Heat claiming three of the best four players in this series.

Windhorst: Fiction. Carmelo Anthony is the third-best player in the series and from the 2003 draft. Been the case for years. Even if he's not really playing like it.

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3. Fact or Fiction: If Heat sweep, Knicks should break up the core.

Haberstroh: Fact. Should happen regardless. Sure, Stoudemire's contract isn't easily moved, but there's no such thing as an unmovable contract in the NBA (see: Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas). Trading Carmelo and building around Jeremy Lin, Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler would be the move that makes the most out of they're fragmented pieces. But alas, I can't imagine the Knicks front office trading their biggest star even if it means they don't compromise Lin and Stoudemire.

Wallace: Fiction. If New York can get a taker for Amare Stoudemire's contract, then by all means move him. But good luck with that. More than anything, these Knicks need stability and good health - elements this team has lacked for most of two seasons now.

Windhorst: Fact. Even if the Heat don't sweep. Seeing this Knicks team play vastly different when they are all together and when one or two pieces are missing obviously has been telling. The problem is they are not very flexible. They have used their cap space, used their amnesty and traded away young assets and draft picks. They have a chronically injured former All-Star with an uninsured contract that has three years left on it as the guy they want to trade the most. They can try, but it's not going to be easy.

MIAMI -- Before the playoffs started, Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh anticipated it would take two or three games to regain the conditioning and rhythm he lost while sitting out the final two weeks of the regular season with nagging leg injuries.

As the Heat headed to New York on Wednesday with a 2-0 series lead against the Knicks, Bosh said he's progressing right along schedule entering Game 3 on Thursday night.

"I'm feeling good," Bosh said after practice at AmericanAirlines Arena. "That last game was better for me. I can still get better in some aspects. But progression is there."

Bosh struggled with his timing and stamina in the series opener, and finished with nine points, six rebounds and two turnovers in 24 minutes during Saturday's 100-67 victory. It was his first game action since an April 16 win in New Jersey in which he had 22 points and 15 rebounds. Bosh was then held out of the final six games of the regular season with what the team first said was muscle fatigue in his legs but later clarified as a right hamstring strain.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he would gradually increase Bosh's playing time over the course of the series. After some initial sluggishness in Game 1, Bosh came back with 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting from the field in 31 minutes during the Heat's 104-94 Game 2 win Monday. Bosh said Wednesday his legs are gradually starting to respond but that he still doesn't have quite the lift he hopes to regain as he plays his way into playoff shape. His rebounding numbers are still well below expectation; he has just 10 total rebounds through the first two games of the series.

Bosh's production could continue to climb in Game 3 on Thursday, with the Knicks not expected to have Amare Stoudemire available because of a hand injury he sustained in punching a fire extinguisher case in frustration following Monday's loss.

The last time Bosh played at Madison Square Garden, he had one of his best games of the season, with 16 points and 14 rebounds during an April 15 win against the Knicks. New York was also without Stoudemire in that game.

So Bosh, who averaged 18 points and 7.9 rebounds per game during the season, believes he'll be ripe for a breakout performance soon should he continue to gain confidence and strength in his legs.

"As long as I'm feeling good, I can get in better condition, and it's going to get better as the playoffs go on," Bosh said. "I don't want to be at my peak yet. I want to play hard on every single possession. But at the same time, I want to be peaking at the right time."

By punching a fire extinguisher case after the Heat's Game 2 victory over the Knicks on Monday, New York star Amare Stoudemire let his emotions get the best of him. He alienated his loyal fan base. He created yet another dramatic twist to the Knicks' rollercoaster season. Most importantly, he might have removed himself from the series.

But contrary to popular belief, Stoudemire's actions also didn't do any favors for the Heat, not that they needed any (Miami leads the first-round series 2-0).

In fact, there's overwhelming evidence that the Knicks received a blessing in disguise. Why? Because the Knicks have been considerably worse with Stoudemire on the floor this season. Having him sidelined might be the best thing for them.

After finding out about Stoudemire's punching incident, Heat players expressed that they never wish injury upon a player, which is the professional and sensitive thing to say. But Dwyane Wade took that sentiment a step further.

"We love when Amare is out there," Wade said following the incident. "He brings out the best in our guys. Hopefully he gets better. We want all their guns on the court."

Though Wade meant that Stoudemire's star power serves as a motivational tool for the Heat, it's also true the Stoudemire tends to bring the best out of every opponent. Between the personal tragedy of his brother passing away and the physical toll his body has taken this season, Stoudemire has been a shell of his former self. He posted his lowest player efficiency rating (PER) since his rookie season and rarely, if ever, discouraged opponents from scoring.

The result was a lot of losing. Here's the scoreboard with Stoudemire on the floor this season:

Knicks 3,052, Opponents 3,099 -- or losing on average by 1.3 points every 48 minutes.

With Stoudemire on the bench?

Knicks 3,406, Opponents 3,153 -- or winning on average by 7.4 points every 48 minutes.

That's nearly a 10-point swing on a full-game level. Yes, the Knicks transformed from a lottery team into an elite team when Stoudemire left the court.

Whether you watch the Knicks or examine the numbers, the evidence is clear: Playing Carmelo Anthony and Stoudemire together was a lost cause. Actually, the Knicks outscored opponents on average by 8.4 points per 48 minutes this season when Anthony played without Stoudemire.

So if the trend continues here in Game 3, don't expect the Knicks to lay down and let Miami walk all over them like they did in the first two games. In all seriousness, Stoudemire's injury finally gave the Knicks an excuse to bench their former star player, something that probably should've happened before the playoffs.


There are on-court explanations for Stoudemire's ineffectiveness. Since he's not a 3-point shooter, Stoudemire doesn't benefit from Anthony's isolation ball that leads to kickouts on the perimeter. For Stoudemire to be at his best, he needs a pick-and-roll partner who can feed him the ball on the move. The Knicks haven't that player since Lin went down.

But the Knicks do have a stretch 4 capable of igniting a scoring run out of thin air: Steve Novak. Although Erik Spoelstra doesn't name names, when he talks about the Knicks' extremely flammable scoring attack around Anthony, the Miami coach is referring to their 3-point shooters, not Stoudemire. Novak may not be a household name, but he led the league in 3-point shooting (47.2 percent shooting from downtown). He's effective in his role.

Putting glamorous star power aside, pairing Novak with Anthony makes the Knicks much tougher to guard. The Heat cannot rotate as quickly when they're sprinting and retreating to the corner and back. Letting the Knicks rain 3s in front of a desperate crowd in Madison Square Garden is like throwing a barrel full of lighter fluid on a bonfire. That's not a situation the Heat want to find themselves in.

Of course, the Knicks are also without Iman Shumpert, who helps defend perimeter players that Novak and Anthony can't. They also don't have a fully healthy Baron Davis, Jared Jeffries or Tyson Chandler. They're hurting right now, and the Heat are as close to a clean bill of health as they've had all season.

But losing Stoudemire isn't much of a loss at all. Sure, the selfish and emotional act probably deflated the New York locker room and made for an awkward trip back to New York City. But the truth is that Stoudemire has dragged the Knicks down all season long, and the Heat certainly haven't had to struggle to bottle him up in this series.

While it looks dire for the Knicks, removing Stoudemire from the equation doesn't make it moreso. If anything, keeping Stoudemire off the court might give the Knicks a better shot to win games. That has been the case all season long.

Statistical support for this article provided by NBA.com

In the first postseason installment of the Heat Index's special 5-on-5 series, our writers give their takes on the storylines before the Heat host the Knicks in Game 1.

1. Fact or Fiction: In crunch-time, you'd prefer Carmelo over LeBron.

Jim Cavan, Knickerblogger: Fact. Melo’s late-game effectiveness is well documented, and he absolutely could win one of these games down the stretch. That said, sooner or later LeBron’s going to uncork a reputation-swinging crunch-time performance – it’s just the law of averages. He has the ability to win games clandestinely, through all quarters and with all tools laid bare. I love Melo, but I’ll take the latter.

Tom Haberstroh: Fiction. For a last-second shot? Yeah, I'd probably take Carmelo. For a possession or multiple possessions, I'd probably take LeBron. For what it's worth, LeBron is shooting better than Carmelo in crunchtime this season (game within five points inside final five minutes), converting shots at 45.3 percent clip versus Carmelo's 37.8 percent. Put it this way: As a coach, I'm picking LeBron; he'll make the smart basketball play. As a fan, I'm picking Carmelo; he'll take the dramatic shot that I'll always remember.

Michael Wallace: Fiction. I need more information than that. My choice would depend on the team I was playing against, the supporting cast on the court and other variables. Do I need a 3? Am I down 1? If I need a jumper, I'm going with Melo. If I need a general play to be made based on versatility, it's LeBron.

Brian Windhorst: Fact. When they first came to the league most thought Melo and LeBron would be relative equals. This has not turned out to be the case, LeBron is the superior player. But Anthony's resume is unquestionably better in executing clutch shots. In this area, Anthony's really had no peer during his career.

Jared Zwerling, ESPNNewYork: Fact. Among players who have taken at least 20 field goal attempts in game-tying or game-winning situations in the last 15 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime in the past 10 years, Anthony ranks first in field goal percentage (46.2; 24-for-52), according to the Elias. His 24 field goals are second only to Kobe Bryant (26), but he's shooting only 30.2 percent in clutch situations (26-for-86). Melo's also shooting 46.7 percent on game-tying or go-ahead shots in the final 24 seconds of regulation or overtime -- the second-best mark in the last 16 seasons after the Mavericks' Shawn Marion (47.4 percent). As for LeBron? Not even close to the top of the list.

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2. Fact or Fiction: Chandler is the most important player in this series.

Cavan: Fact. For the Knicks, anyway. But – laugh all you want – J.R. Smith ain’t far behind.As one of the few semi-reliable wing defenders the Knicks have, Smith’s ability to slow down Wade and LeBron will be crucial. Ditto his shooting, where Earl’s stellar April (16ppg on 42% from distance) has to continue if the Knicks have any hope of making this a series.

Haberstroh: Fact. Let's frame it in hypotheticals. If the Knicks lose Carmelo Anthony for the series, I think they can still win a game based on sheer 3-point shooting and defense. If they lose Tyson Chandler, they get swept, in my opinion. He's that important to their defense and pick-and-roll attack, which will come in handy once the Heat stymie the isolation ball. As for LeBron, if the two teams were closer in talent level, I'd give the nod to LeBron here. But for the Knicks to have a chance, they need Chandler on the court.

Wallace: Fiction. LeBron James is the most important player in this series. This is as close to a Finals feel for LeBron since, well, since he melted down late in the Finals against Dallas. Tyson certainly had a big series for the Mavs, but the Heat could have overcome all those issues if LeBron resembled anything close to himself late.

Windhorst: Fiction. Chandler's ability to defend the rim is vital for the Knicks to have a chance. But the most important players in this series are the stars. Most of the time it's the stars who decide playoff series.

Zwerling: Fiction. LeBron James. After disappearing in the NBA Finals last year, succumbing to rookie mistakes by fumbling the ball, making poor passes and looking rattled on his drives far too often, the likely MVP has a lot to prove heading into this postseason. And it starts with the first round. He's the most important player in this series because he's the best overall offensive and defensive player. If he can play efficiently as the point-forward and especially out of the post, where he's been excelling more this season, as well as make it difficult for Carmelo Anthony -- easier said than done, of course -- the Heat will have the clear advantage.

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3. Fact or Fiction: The Knicks should start Amare Stoudemire.

Cavan: Fiction. With Melo on a tear and the two’s chemistry still in question, bringing Stat off the pine makes a lot of sense. At the very least the Knicks should consider giving him the bulk of his minutes with the second unit. No one says it has to be permanent; they’ll have ample time to sort out the glitches this summer. But now’s no time for basketball alchemy.

Haberstroh: Fiction. He's weighed them down all season long. Take a strong whiff of these numbers: the Knicks are +8.4 points every 48 minutes when Carmelo plays without Stoudemire, but -2.4 when the two stars share the floor. Enough forcing the issue. It's the playoffs. Better to bring Stoudemire off the bench with the second unit and isolate the problem. I get that Stoudemire's making $18.2 million this season, but that's Jim Dolan's problem, not the Mike Woodson's.

Wallace: Fact. He's a starting player in this league. This isn't like a Ray Allen situation in Boston. Amare is still capable of having a major impact on this team. I know Carmelo has flourished while Stoudemire has been out. But this team can't reach it's full potential if Melo and 'Mar'e can't coexist.

Windhorst: Fact. In general, I don't really care who starts games. I'm much more interested in who finishes. In this case, I think having Stoudemire out there adds some challenge to the Heat defense. It forces James to defend Anthony more regularly, which the Heat would prefer to save until late in games.

Zwerling: Fact. Well, first of all, if Tyson Chandler misses Game 1 with the flu, Stoudemire will have to start no matter what. But overall, STAT should be in the starting five. The first reason has to do with defensive matchups. With the Heat's Big Three, the Knicks wouldn't want to start Anthony at the four because that would mean Landry Fields would be on James. And that's a major mismatch. While STAT's not a consistently effective defender, he can make some stops against Bosh with his length and athleticism. Offensively, while Anthony and Stoudemire still don't play great together -- that's because Melo is much more heavy in isolation -- Stoudemire's midrange jumper should come in handy from Anthony's penetration. And Stoudemire is getting that pop back since his back injury.

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4. Fact or Fiction: The Heat should be concerned about rust.

Cavan: Factish. To the extent that stealing Game 1 would prove a potentially major coup for the surging Knicks, the Heat can’t afford to lay an egg today. Then again, we’re talking about a team buttressed by two players whose space age makeup is pretty much immune to earthly things like “rust.” Considering the condensed season, rest > rust.

Haberstroh: Fiction. They might be rusty, but I don't think a missed shot here and there is worth being concerned about in the big picture. Looking at the forest instead of the trees, the Heat needed LeBron, Wade and Bosh to be fully rested going into the playoffs. They'll be riding them more than ever.

Wallace: Fact. I don't care how much talent you have, you just can't expect to roll out onto the court and pick up where you left off after two weeks of not playing together. There will be rust early. And if Miami is vulnerable in this series, it's in Game 1. But the Heat have shown they come get on track quickly.

Windhorst: Fiction. Maybe it's a factor in Game 1. But they get to play that one at home, where they were 28-5 this season. Getting rest was vital.

Zwerling, ESPNNewYork: Fiction. Maybe a bit in the first quarter of Game 1, but a few days won't derail the Heat throughout the course of a playoff environment. They will be fired up, especially playing at home to open the series. Now, heading into the playoffs, James is healthy, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh's trainer, Ed Downs, said they'll both be ready to go. Wade dislocated his left index finger earlier in the week and Bosh had been dealing with a left hamstring strain. By the way, let's not forget something here: The Knicks will have some rust, too.

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5. Fact or Fiction: The Heat will win in six.

Cavan: Fact. The Knicks could steal a pair, but their point guard and wing defense issues can only be masked so long. Sooner or later, the Heat’s lane-hawking and point-bunch runs will turn tides, and the Flying Death Machine will reign victorious. But if the Knicks can somehow go up 3-2 and force a game 6 in the Garden, buckle your coaster belts.

Haberstroh: Fact. But if Chandler isn't right for the beginning of this series, that'll shave off a game or two. As long as the Knicks understand that Steve Novak and J.R. Smith are their best options next to Chandler and Carmelo, they should steal at least a game. It's bound to happen. But the Heat's strong one-on-one defense will give them the edge in this series against the most iso-heavy team in the league.

Wallace: Fact. That's exactly my prediction. Would I be stunned if the Knicks prove me wrong? Not really.

Windhorst: Fiction. I'll say five. Though the Knicks have the shooters to steal an extra game if they get red hot.

Zwerling: Fact. The Knicks will make things interesting by stealing one game on the road and winning one at home through a combination of their defense, Anthony's scoring exploits and J.R. Smith and Steve Novak's 3-point shooting. During the regular season, the Heat were one of the worst teams at defending threes because they try to utilize their perimeter athleticism to over-trap and over-play passing lanes, leaving guys like Smith and Novak wide open. But in the end, the Heat have too much firepower that will overwhelm the Knicks down the stretch (just like what happened on April 15) -- no matter how clutch Melo is.

MIAMI - Dwyane Wade insists the Miami Heat have paced -- and braced -- themselves for Linsanity.

"We're going to answer it today, we'll have to answer it tomorrow, and then we'll move on," Wade said Wednesday when asked if his team had already grown weary of facing relentless questions about the overnight sensation that is New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin. "Well, nah. All-Star weekend, we'll be asked about him, too. But after that, we'll move on."

Wade, whose Heat team is familiar with being a major topic throughout league circles, actually seemed to embrace the reversal of roles.

"The biggest thing is he's winning," Wade said of Lin. "They're winning. He's the leading catalyst of that. I'm sure guys have had to answer questions about us, and they were like, 'Oh Jesus, not this again.' But that's what this league is about. Once we get done with this game and All-Star Weekend, we can move on and answer other questions."

Considering the run the Knicks have been on recently since inserting the now-popular point guard into the lineup, there's no doubt that all eyes will be on Lin when New York visits Miami on Thursday for one of the most anticipated matchups in the league this season.

Despite all of the hype, the Heat's focus extends well beyond finding a way to contain Lin, who has led the Knicks to nine victories in the 11 games since he emerged as the starter. Miami, which enters the game with the league's best record at 26-7, has the star power to account for New York's potentially prolific scorers in Lin, Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith.

But a bigger problem for the Heat could be figuring out a way to match-up with the Knicks' inside tandem of Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler. Miami has gotten away with playing smaller lineups, finishing games almost exclusively with Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem rotating at center.

Not even the Orlando Magic, who have the league's most dominant center in Dwight Howard, could effectively exploit the matchup advantage they had inside during last Sunday's 90-78 loss to the Heat. But few teams have the kind of length and athleticism at the power forward and center spots as the Knicks, with both Stoudemire and Chandler becoming bigger factors since Lin took over control of the offense.

Chandler, who had essentially been a forgotten man in the offense, has regained his finishing touch around the rim and is averaging 13.3 points and 10 rebounds on 75.3 percent shooting in road games this season.

Stoudemire is trying to shake off a rusty start to the season and is again showing flashes of brilliance in the pick-and-roll game, specifically with Lin facilitating the initial set. Stoudemire has averaged 19.1 points and shot an improved 48.5 percent this month. The Knicks also have grabbed at least 14 offensive rebounds in three of their past four games.

When the Heat and Knicks met a month ago, Lin hadn't yet cracked the rotation and neither Stoudemire nor Chandler were significant factors in a game that saw New York attempt 43 shots from 3-point range in a 99-89 Miami victory at AmericanAirlines Arena.

But the Heat are preparing for a more balanced approach from the Knicks, who are equally capable of jacking up 43 shots from beyond the arc one game as well as scoring 54 points in the paint like they did in Wednesday's home blowout against the Atlanta Hawks.

"If you don't have (defensive) habits built up, it can be an absolute nightmare trying to defend them," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "To defend a system like that, you have to do it team-wise. If one guy breaks down, it will invariably lead to a wide-open 3. You can't prepare for them in one day. This has to be weeks and months of (defensive) habits."

Those habits for the Heat, a top-five defensive team in the league, start with an all-hands-on-deck commitment to protect the paint and compensate for their lack of significant bulk in the middle.

"With the way they shoot the ball, we can't give them 3s and give them paint points," Haslem said of the Knicks. "So we've got to try to take care of the paint first. No easy baskets, then close out on the 3s. Our defensive principles don't change. Protect the paint. Make them spray the ball. It's not an easy style to play defensively, but it's been working for us. We understand our recipe for success."

For the Heat, that recipe involves keeping a close eye on Lin but also putting a body or three on Stoudemire and Chandler.

"That's huge for us," center Joel Anthony said. "Everyone talks about Jeremy Lin. But Stoudemire, on any given night, can explode and you don't want to be in a position where he's affecting a game like that. And we know Chandler can have a huge impact with those lobs and his activity around the basket. So we definitely have to find a way to neutralize that or it doesn't matter what happens on the perimeter. We've put ourselves in a tough situation if we can't handle what goes on inside."

The Heat have had success mixing defensive coverages, which, at times, has even included gimmicks such as LeBron James defending the center to combat size with quickness. During its seven-game winning streak, Miami has won the rebounding battle six times and has not allowed a team to score 50 points in the paint.

Maintaining those benchmarks remain a priority against the Knicks.

"We don't really care about size much here," Bosh said. "It's just really some numbers on paper. Our goal is to outrebound every team we play. It never really changes. We just look at what our job is, and we plan to do our job again (Thursday)."

MIAMI -- Frankly, I don't fault Erik Spoelstra for essentially wanting little part in the discussion.

"I have enough on my plate," Spoelstra dismissively shot back at reporters in Detroit the other night as he looked ahead to Friday's matchup with the New York Knicks. "Thankfully, I don't have to wonder about what other teams go through. But there's no question about it, and nobody wants to hear this in this league, but it takes time."

Yes, time.

When it comes to comparing the frustrating false starts Spoelstra's Miami Heat team got off to last year with the one the Knicks are enduring this season, time is about the only legitimate commodity the two teams have in common.

Time to fix the mess. But even that can be deceiving for the Knicks, who stumble into Miami with their own Big Three project having sputtered to seven losses in the past eight games. When considering how relentless and oppressive this lockout-induced, truncated 66-game schedule is capable of being on teams, the Knicks enter AmericanAirlines Arena standing somewhere between rock bottom and the height of their hysteria.

In either case, it doesn't come close to comparing to what the Heat endured last season. Make no mistake: This Knicks situation is much worse. You could throw Michael Jordan and Reggie Miller on the same team, move the calendar to May, travel back two decades and still not see the Knicks get hit with as many shots as the self-inflicted wounds they've absorbed through the first month of this season.

New York is 7-11 through 18 games as Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler sort through the damage in their first season together under embattled coach Mike D'Antoni.

Through 17 games last season, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were 9-8 as they toiled through those early growing pains while Spoelstra strained to hold things together. Who doesn't think the Knicks would trade places right now and take the Heat's heartache of nine and eight?

For comparison's sake, that Heat team was going through what was probably a well-deserved humbling; these Knicks are going through hell. By this point in the Heat's schedule last season, Spoelstra had already survived his star players' leaks to the media about their discomfort with the offense and a Nov. 27 "Bumpgate" episode in Dallas, where a demoralizing loss was followed by a players-only meeting that proved to be a turning point.

Even amid the chaos and media frenzy in Miami at that time, it was obvious that the lines of communication between Wade, James and Bosh were open and it would only be a matter of time before they would figure it out. And the Heat moved from early-season friction to the NBA Finals.

There have been times already in New York when it appeared Stoudemire and Anthony weren't just on different pages, but working in different boroughs. I credit Anthony for trying to be a bit more of a playmaker, and he's averaging a career-high 4.3 assists this season. But you have to question why he's shooting a career-low 39.4 percent from the field. A Hummer can be parallel parked more efficiently in midtown Manhattan than Anthony has shown he can operate in D'Antoni's uptempo run-and-shoot offense.

And Stoudemire, who anchored the Knicks' modest revival when he arrived in 2010 free agency, has seen his impact and opportunities diminish as New York added what were supposed to be complementary pieces, first Anthony at the trade deadline last season and Chandler as the major addition after the lockout.

Those upgrades have Stoudemire on course to average the lowest numbers he's had over a full season in points, field goal percentage and blocks. Only in New York does it sort of make sense that the one guy putting up banner numbers -- Chandler is shooting a career-high 69.5 percent on 4.5 attempts per game -- gets the fewest touches among the key rotation players.

This time a year ago in Miami, the pressing question was, 'When will the Heat figure this out?'" Meanwhile, the significant chatter in New York is focused on determining whether the Knicks should bail on this project and break it up.

In these kinds of pressure cookers, amid this level of big-market media scrutiny, perspective is about as common as an oasis. Under the current circumstances, Miami these days seem about as tame as Cleveland when gauging the temperature in New York.

"It's never going to work just right overnight," a sympathetic James told reporters after Miami's victory Wednesday at Detroit. "We were the prime example of that. It took us time. We were 9-8 at one point. But it took us even more, long after that, to become a good team, to know each other, to learn each other, to learn what works for each other, what doesn't work."

You get that luxury of ample development time when you sign up in relatively anonymous Atlanta, mundane Milwaukee or perfunctory-yet-passionate Portland. But when the players' salaries are set to pile well into luxury-tax territory and patience runs razor-thin like in New York or Miami, it's basically a win-now or it-won't-work situation.

"People want results now," said James, who believes the Heat are operating in a championship-or-bust mode themselves this season. "Eventually, it just clicks, and you know what's best for the team and how we're going to work together to be successful. We were like, 'OK, let's just play our game and see what happens,' and we took off from there."

The Knicks could easily be at a crossroads coming into Friday's game against the Heat -- much like they were when they arrived in Miami last spring soon after they acquired Anthony and Chauncey Billups from Denver. Those Knicks were in an adjustment process following that Feb. 22 trade. They came to Miami a week later on the heels of a stunning loss to the rebuilding Cavaliers, beat the Heat and went 5-2 over a seven-game stretch.

Where do the Knicks come in from after their latest stinging loss? You guessed it: Cleveland. You can't make this stuff up. But you can't overlook the fact that New York lacks the direction it had during that rough patch last season. And I'm not even referring to the obvious issues with D'Antoni and the philosophical clashes between his preferred style and his isolationist roster.

The Knicks don't have guards or ball-handlers capable of steering this team out of being in its own way. Yes, Billups made that much of a difference in this equation. And they paid him to go away. The Heat had willing passers and facilitators in Wade and James. Miami's problem last season was that it was too unselfish at times. That's at least one diagnosis the Knicks haven't had to treat, ranking 24th in the league in assists and 27th in field goal shooting percentage. In other words, taking shots certainly isn't medicating the problem.

Even in many of their losses, the Heat were competitive. Five of the first eight setbacks were on the road, and four of them were by five or fewer points. But six of New York's 11 losses have been by double figures, and the Knicks have dropped six of nine at home.

The Heat, with all their early problems out of the gate, were still a team you clamored to see. If you've watched the Knicks play recently, there have been occasions when you've fought the urge to cover your eyes.

You can call the Knicks a lot of things right now. Delusional isn't one of them. They know they're a work in progress -- just like the Heat were last season. I guess that's another thing they have in common.

"Once we figure [it] out, we'll become a great team," Stoudemire told reporters in Cleveland on Wednesday. "Until then, we are who we are."

What Stoudemire's Knicks turn out to be remains to be seen.

But there's no doubt about where they are now. And that's is in a much deeper hole than the Heat ever were at this point in the season a year ago.

This is fun: ESPN New York's Ian Begley lets us in on a little exchange between Amare Stoudemire and Josh Harrellson on Wednesday night. The story:

Funny conversation in the Knicks' locker room after their preseason game against the Nets.

Josh Harrellson, an avid hunter, asked Amare Stoudemire where they could go hunting this season.

Stoudemire replied, 'South Beach.'

A half-amused, half-confused Harrellson asked Stoudemire, 'What can we hunt in South Beach?'

Stoudemire replied, 'We're hunting D-Wade and LeBron.'

Shots fired.

Stoudemire trained in Miami in the offseason at the Florida International campus and he's one of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade's close friends. Of course, the two Heat All-Stars wouldn't take this very lightly.

On Thursday morning, Wade took to his Twitter account and sent over his counter in front of everyone:



Obviously, Wade might be playing it up for the fans on this one. He could have called or texted Stoudemire himself. But there's no doubt that this has stirred up more intrigue between the Heat and Knicks this season. They meet for the first time on Jan. 27 in Miami and have two more matchups slated for later in the season.

Wondering what "L2MS" stands for? I'll let Dwyane explain.

When the Heat were dropping games early in the season, Erik Spoelstra would sit behind the podium in the interview room at AmericanAirlines Arena and explain that the Heat were enduring a process. In Spoelstra's estimation, his team was a living organism. All that ugliness we were witnessing on the floor -- the lack of execution, direction and performance? Those were all natural parts of the transformation a team undergoes as it learns what it is.

Spoelstra's theory seemed smart after the Heat started to pull it together. As it turned out, the Heat needed "20 games to jell," even though that seemed like coach-and athlete-speak at the time. There were still some rough edges. The Heat were having trouble beating elite teams and still had a lousy record in close games, but those shortcomings were also part of the process and would be addressed in due time.

Due time arrived last night with the Heat leading the Knicks 84-78 with about three minutes left in the game. A six-point lead with six or seven possessions remaining in regulation gives a team a healthy margin for error. Grind out a bucket or two and you're basically requiring the opponent to run the table if they want to win or extend the game.

That being the case, we can tell a lot about a team's poise and competence by how it executes these possessions.

How did the Heat choose to approach these opportunities? Did they resort to hero ball, something they've been prone to do at their worst moments? Did LeBron James and Dwyane Wade trust their teammates, something Spoelstra preaches as gospel? Did the Heat use their superior talent and instincts to make smart basketball plays? Was each possession approached with a purpose?

With that six-point cushion, the Heat didn't need to be perfect. In fact, they didn't even need to be average. Even after Carmelo Anthony trimmed that six-point lead to four, Miami could withstand being significantly worse than New York and probably still survive.

It's one thing to say that a team has trouble closing out games, but that doesn't offer a specific diagnosis as to why.

How did the Heat manage only two points over their final seven possessions on Sunday?

Possession No. 1 (Heat up four, 2:50)
The Heat's lineup for the stretch drive includes Wade, James, Mike Miller, Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony.

Credit the Heat for a defined plan on this possession: to go to their shuffle/UCLA cut, something they've been using successfully over the past month or so. James brings the ball up the left side. Miller sets a back screen for Wade at the left elbow. If executed to perfection, Wade's man, Bill Walker, will get hung up on that screen and Wade will fly to the hole where he'll either be completely alone or, if Billups (who is assigned to Miller) makes the switch, Wade will have deep, deep post position.

Miller's screen doesn't get any space for Wade, but it's not the end of the world. This is a resourceful set with plenty of options. Once Wade clears, Miller quickly offers James an angle screen on the left wing, which gets LeBron a mismatch when the Knicks switch.

Miller is a busy dude. Once LeBron draws Billups to the top of the floor, Miller sets a pindown for Wade, who curls counterclockwise along the left sideline.

This is good stuff because there are few things more dangerous in the NBA than Dwyane Wade on the move. For months we've begged the Heat to do more work off the ball, and that's precisely what's going on here.

One problem: As Wade swings around with Walker trailing well behind him, LeBron's bounce pass is snared by Billups and we go the other way.

You can't fault the scheme whatsoever. This is a beautifully drawn play and, if LeBron can execute the simplest pass to Wade on the move, almost certainly results in a layup or at the very least a couple of free throws if a help defender can wrap Wade up in time.

Possession No. 2 (Heat up four, 2:22)
Again, it's difficult to fault what the Heat have conceived here. They want a two-man game with Miller and Bosh on the right side. When Amare Stoudemire fronts Bosh in the mid-post, Bosh offers a step-up screen for Miller in order to get open. He's successful, as Miller passes the ball to Bosh at the right foul line extended area.


It's debatable whether Bosh has sufficient room to launch an open jumper from 18 feet, but it's safe to say Bosh has attempted that shot with less daylight.

It's no matter, though, because the Heat have spaced the floor beautifully. Wade has been parked in the left corner. Once the Heat set the play in motion on the right side, Shawne Williams and Walker (Wade's man) cheat over. The moment Wade is no longer the focus of Walker's attention, he makes a sharp cut along the baseline to the basket, where Bosh tries to hit him with a pass.

Not unlike the previous possession, the Heat get Wade on the move to the hole. You can't ask for much more, except to make a clean pass. The feed from Bosh isn't horrible, but it's clunky enough to allow the Knicks to recover. By the time Wade gathers the ball, he's surrounded by a scrum of blue jerseys. Wade has to take a dribble in traffic, move from beneath the backboard, where he doesn't have a good angle, and launch the shot off-balance.

If he looks behind him, Wade would find Miller with not a soul within 10 feet of him behind the arc and Bosh wide open at his favorite spot at 17 feet. But with the ball that close to the hole and his propensity for drawing contact, Wade stays with the play.

The shot is no good.

Possession No. 3 (Heat up two, 1:41)
After Billups makes a runner, James -- unquestionably the Heat's primary point guard during this stretch drive -- brings the ball up.

Of the first three sets, this is far and away the least coherent, and it breaks down fairly quickly. After getting freed up from a down screen by Anthony, Wade received the ball from James at the top of the floor and gets a double stack high from Anthony and Chris Bosh. This is a play the Heat have run routinely and one that's also popular in Boston. Wade goes to the left of the screen, while Anthony rolls to the hoop.

Not that hitting Anthony with a pass inside is a very inspired idea, but Wade's feed is deflected slightly. Anthony is able to grab the ball but at this point he's surrounded by Knicks. Anthony manages to get the ball back to Wade along a congested baseline.

With the play disintegrating into chaos, Bosh does something smart: He streaks down a wide-open lane where Wade hits him on the move. But as he elevates for a close-range shot, Bosh has the ball slip out of his hands. The Heat get lucky, though, as the rock lands in Wade's hand on the right side at about 12 feet. With the shot clock clicking down, Wade launches a fadeaway that's short.

Sunday's night game was uncharacteristically sloppy, with plenty of poor passes and slippery execution. Place this possession into evidence.

Possession No. 4 (Heat down one, 1:01)
This possession follows Billups' enormous step-back 3-pointer.

Much of what Miami does offensively originates with the ball going into Bosh at the elbow. As is often the case, the nominal point guard (on this possession that's Wade) lobs an entry pass into Bosh, then moves to the corner to set a screen for his teammate on the wing. That's what Wade does, but Bosh senses a one-on-one advantage against Stoudemire at the elbow.

We often criticize Bosh for not being more willing to put the ball on the floor and attack, yet that's what he does here. As he drives middle, Williams moves off Anthony (and why not?) to help, which prompts Bosh to kick the ball out to the perimeter. Unfortunately, Bosh performs one of the cardinal sins of basketball and elevates before he knows where he's going with the pass. Bosh's intended receiver is Miller ... but the actual one is Billups.

Possession No. 5 (Heat down three, 0:43.2)
When the Heat get jittery, they often go back to the most rudimentary solution: put the ball in the hands of LeBron James.

James wants a high screen and, more importantly, a mismatch against a Knicks' big man. That's what he gets when Bosh screens Anthony at the floor. James promptly puts his head down and drives to the rack, beating Stoudemire and drawing the foul on the attack.

There's something almost poetic -- and somewhat ironic -- about the Heat's only two points in the final three minutes of the game coming from a set with the utmost simplicity. The Heat probably can't win a seven-game series running 3-4 and 3-5 pick-and-rolls for James more than a couple dozen times per game, but there are few things more reliable in basketball than James devouring a backpedaling big man on a dribble-drive.

Possession No. 6 (Heat down one, 0:12.7)
Eddie House is now in the game for Joel Anthony. Miller inbounds the ball to James who this time doesn't get a screen. The Heat spread the floor wide for James for a one-on-one drive against Melo in isolation. James attacks left and Carmelo does a solid job walling off the paint. James never gets the kind of space he wants, but still manages to get off a shot at close range.

But that's when Stoudemire darts over from the right side to challenge James at the rim. Stoudemire swats the ball away into the hands of Williams.

Whoever had the tandem of Anthony and Stoudemire stopping James on a decisive drive to the basket can claim clairvoyance. The defensive stand by the Knicks was as incredible as it was improbable.

Possession No. 7 (Heat down three, 0:06.7)
The Heat confronted this same scenario exactly two weeks earlier in Boston.This time, Miller inbounds from the right sideline into the half court.

Rather than rely on one of his 3-point shooters (and the Heat's best one, James Jones, is sitting on the bench), Spoelstra opts for the ball to be inbounded to James. LeBron gets open up top, courtesy of a sturdy pindown from Bosh at the top of the arc. Bosh pastes Carmelo Anthony as James darts to the top of the floor to receive the inbounds pass.

James has a reasonably clean look at about the 5.7-second mark, but as Carmelo eventually frees himself from Bosh to close out, James buys a little more time and space with a quick ball fake as Anthony approaches. LeBron then takes a single dribble to his left.

With 4.7 seconds remaining, James has another look, but he also has Wade open to his left. Wade has gotten himself free, like James, thanks to a down screen from Bosh.

Wade is a less proficient 3-point shooter (33.8 percent for James, 31.3 percent for Wade), but a more open one at this instant.

James takes the shot, and it misses. Game over.

Down three, does Spoelstra give his team a better shot at the win if he designs a play for Jones (again, not in the game), Miller or House? Does he give the ball to his superstar in this situation, irrespective of probabilities? How much of this decision is informed by Miller's inability to drain the shot in Boston?

After the game, Wade was asked by Brian Windhorst why the Heat have had trouble executing in late-game situations. Wade challenged the premise:

"I would disagree with you," Wade said. "I think we got good offensive execution, but all our shots haven't gone down all the time. We got what we wanted at the end of the game, with LeBron driving to the basket, and they made a very athletic play. I think we've executed pretty well. We get the shots that we want, that our coach draws up for us, that we as players want. A lot of times they just don't go in. But we don't win 43 games without being able to execute."

It's not so much the 43 wins as it is the 17 losses, including several games in recent weeks against the kind of Eastern Conference competition the Heat will encounter this spring. These seven possessions suggest that the Heat have the talent and schemes to generate points in pivotal situations, whether they're running a UCLA cut, crafty off-ball action or just relying on LeBron James to be LeBron James.

But even the best talent and most creative sets require sharp passes and smart decision-making and getting the ball to the right guys at the right spots at the right moments.

Can the Heat, with a straight face, say they accomplished what they wanted to last night?

For the Knicks, the hard part appears to be over: get a second star to New York.

By trading for Carmelo Anthony, a Brooklyn native and four-time All-Star, the Knicks have assembled a rock-solid foundation upon which to build their championship aspirations. Anthony and Amare Stoudemire now make up a 1-2 scoring punch that few teams can rival.

One of those teams is their opponent on Sunday, the Heat. With LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in the fold, the Heat have two of the game's best, if not the best, perimeter scorers in the game. But what separates the Heat’s superstars and the Knicks’ superstars is what also separates the contenders and the pretenders: attention to defense.

Even though the qualification of a superstar largely hinges on one dimension (can he score?), championship teams demand more of their franchise players. To win the big one, you have to own both ends of the court -- not just the one that brings in the cash.

James and Wade are two-way players, bringing immense value to both sides of the floor. Not only has James won the last two MVP awards, but he’s also been selected first-team All-Defense each of the last two seasons. Wade himself has earned a spot on the second-team All-Defense team three out of the last five seasons.

No, the annual coach’s vote shouldn’t mean everything, but you won’t find Anthony or Stoudemire anywhere near those lists -- and that’s telling. You don’t have to completely trust the votes, you can just watch them with your own eyes. And you can check the numbers as well. Synergy Sports Technology, a data provider for NBA teams, charts each and every possession in the NBA and objectively tracks how well individuals score and defend. James and Wade each grade in the top third of the NBA in overall defensive effectiveness. Anthony and Stoudemire? Both in the bottom third of the league.

For all the praise that’s been showered over Anthony and Stoudemire, the Knicks will shell out nearly $200 million over the next four seasons to two players who don’t play defense. And when building a championship-caliber roster within the confines of a tight budget -- which will almost surely grow more constricting in the next CBA -- that’s an enormous pill to swallow.

Under coach Mike D’Antoni, the Knicks are not designed to play tough defense and the truth is that without an elite defense, championships are hard to come by. The last nine teams to bring home the Larry O’Brien Trophy were ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating (estimated points per possession allowed) according to Basketball-Reference.com.

And the Knicks? They’re currently ranked 21^st in defensive rating, allowing 109.4 points every 100 possessions, more than two points more than your typical NBA team. This is the norm for D’Antoni’s teams. In his nine seasons in the league, every team he’s coached has ranked in the bottom half of the league, with the exception of the 2006-07 Suns, who ranked 13^th. In New York, D’Antoni has yet to oversee a team that wasn’t among the league’s worst defenses.

And judging from the last two games with Anthony and Stoudemire in the fold, it’s not going to get any better. As a team, the Knicks relinquished 108 points to the historically terrible Bucks offense on Wednesday, and followed up that performance by hemorrhaging another 115 points to the lowly Cavaliers on Friday.

Let’s not pull any punches here: The Knicks defense has been terrible kicking off the Anthony era, in no small part because of New York's superstars. During the Cleveland game, when Stoudemire couldn’t stop Antawn Jamison (28 points), the Knicks handed the assignment to Anthony in crunch time. Over the next four possessions, Jamison shredded Anthony when the Knicks needed stops. Anthony watched Jamison as he backed him down for an easy layup, then Anthony fouled Jamison away from the ball the next two times down the court, and to top things off, Anthony saw Jamison blow by him for another lay-in at the rim. Jamison scored seven points on those four possessions and pushed the Cavaliers' lead to eight. The Knicks never closed the gap thereafter.

The ending in Cleveland was a fitting representation of the challenges the Knicks face ahead, even though they boast two of the highest-scoring players in the league. As high-powered as the offense is, it means little if the defense can’t stop anyone.

Now, the Heat also possess two of the highest-scoring players in the league in James and Wade. But unlike the Knicks, the 43-16 Heat stake claim to the fourth-best defense in the NBA -- and they’ve done it without an authority in the paint like Kevin Garnett or Dwight Howard. Ever since training camp opened, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has emphasized that the identity of the star-studded team will come from the defensive end of the floor. Spoelstra understands that the fabric of championship teams is a heightened focus on the less-glamorous side of the floor.

If the Knicks want to compete for a title, the team will have to shore up their porous defense either through a shift in philosophy or by surrounding Anthony and Stoudemire with defensive-minded rotation players in the long run. But that will be tough with the little cap space they’ll have to spend.

For now, the Knicks hope that outscoring the opponent -- in the most literal sense of the phrase -- will be enough. However, the Heat, with all their offensive fireworks, can outdefend their opponents as well, thanks much to James and Wade.

Force the Knicks to defend
When you have offensive weapons as dangerous as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, it's tempting to take a sledgehammer rather than a scalpel to each possession. The Knicks play a high-octane game, preferring a track meet to a half-court battle. If the Heat aren't careful, they can be easily lured into pull-up jumpers in transition and quick one-on-one strikes. While that might be a sensible strategy against the Bulls, as we saw in the first half on Thursday night, the Knicks invite that sort of chaos and thrive off it. But force the Knicks into a methodical, grind-it-out game and you can have success. As Jeff Fogle of Hoopdata pointed out, since the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Knicks have had the fortune of facing the NBA's worst two offenses -- Milwaukee and Cleveland -- and failed miserably in defending either of them. They fouled incessantly, gave up a ton of second-chance opportunities, and generally failed to contest shots both inside and out. When the Heat put their minds to it, move the ball and they can pick teams apart. The Knicks simply don't have the instincts on the defensive side of the ball to make prompt, smart decisions. Let them off the hook and they don't have to.

Get to the line
Want to know the single most foolproof way of preventing a team like the Knicks from getting easy buckets in transition? Make them inbound the ball from the far baseline after a successful free throw. The free points generated at the charity stripe not only pad the score, but they allow a team to get its defense set, which, against an efficient offensive team like New York that can run you into submission, is no small task. The Knicks are also very thin behind their starters after emptying the bench in the Anthony/Billups acquisition, and can ill-afford any foul trouble to their principals. Meanwhile, the Heat are the third-best foul-drawing team in the league. James worked his way to the line for 19 attempts on Friday night against Washington, while Wade racked up 12 chances at the stripe on Thursday night in Chicago. Along with their other sins against Cleveland and Milwaukee, the Knicks allowed 76 free throws over those two games against a couple of pretty desperate offenses. If the Heat attack the rim early and often, they could win this game without having a banner night from the perimeter.

LeBron vs. Carmelo
This is the mano-a-mano almost everyone will be watching, even with Anthony nursing a sore right elbow. James has had success over the years as Anthony's primary defender. On possessions when the two superstars have been matched up one-on-one since 2004-05, Anthony has shot 15-for-40 (37.5 percent) and generated only 0.79 points per play. James has had a bit more success, shooting 13-for-28 (46.4 percent) and scoring 0.94 points per play. We've seen James' best defensive performances of the season when he's matched up against premiere counterparts at the small forward spot, such as the Jan. 30 win over Oklahoma City, when James did solid work on Kevin Durant. Anthony and Durant are different talents -- Melo is far more physical creating space for himself -- but James certainly knows that a national audience will be focused in on those one-on-one battles out on the wing.

Welcome back, Joel?
One of the more curious subplots of the previous three meetings between the Heat and Knicks has been Joel Anthony. Teams are always looking for "star-stoppers" when they confront a dynamic offensive player and Anthony has had relative success matching up against Stoudemire. In three games, Stoudemire has shot 13-of-38 from the field (34.2 percent) with three fouls drawn with Anthony as his primary defender. Anthony has played more sparingly as of late, giving up many of his minutes to the bulkier Erick Dampier. But against a more up-tempo New York squad that relies on pick-and-rolls to get Stoudemire many of his looks, expect Anthony to log significant time. Anthony demonstrates quick anticipation against Stoudemire, both in pick-and-roll situations and in isolation. Anthony uses his quick feet to cut off Stoudemire's right-handed drive and doesn't yield Stoudemire a whole lot of space to launch from 18 feet.

Control the glass
In their effort to leak out in transition at every opportunity and without a willful rebounder, the Knicks leave themselves vulnerable on the defensive glass. They rank 25th in the league in the percentage of rebounds secured on the their opponents' backboard, and got ravaged on Friday night in Cleveland (the NBA's 29th-ranked rebounding squad). Theoretically, Anthony brings a little help on the wings, where Landry Fields is already a pretty capable rebounder, but if the Heat set their minds to it, they should have plenty of chances to get multiple looks at the basket. But crashing the offensive boards comes with a calculated risk. If the Heat's speedy wings are overly aggressive, then the Knicks will get opportunities in the open court. The key for the Heat is to be smart and selective. Let guys like Anthony squirt into the paint and establish position, then kick the ball back up top for a reset.

NEW YORK –- LeBron James downplayed, but didn’t deny his comments to Carmelo Anthony about joining the Knicks last July.

In an interview with Sports Illustrated earlier this month, Anthony said that James advised him to join the Knicks during a conversation at Anthony’s wedding in New York over the summer.

"If you want any chance against us in Miami, you'd better team up with [Amare] Stoud[emire] in New York," Anthony said James told him.

Asked about it before James and the Heat took on the Knicks Thursday, James attempted to defuse the issue.

“He blamed me?” James said with a smile “I think [that] particular day was all about Carmelo and his wife … We said what we said but, at the end of the day, we were excited to be there for his wedding.”

Reportedly at Anthony’s wedding reception was one of James’ closest friends, Hornets guard Chris Paul, who reportedly toasted to Anthony and himself joining Stoudemire in New York. Anthony can be a free agent this summer, Paul in 2012.

LeBron playing big
LeBron James will be starting at the power forward spot against a smallish Knicks lineup featuring Raymond Felton, Landry Fields, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Amare Stoudemire. At Wednesday's practice, James reiterated that playing the slot isn't such a departure for him. "Even before I came [to Miami], I spent a lot of my time in the high post, in the Karl Malone area," James said. "I can play the position that [Chris Bosh] plays. He's much more efficient than myself or [Dwyane Wade] is in the low post or at the elbow, but I'm picking up where C.B. has left off. We need that post presence for our shooters to get open." That last part is the key. With some combination of Wade, Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller and James Jones spread out along the perimeter, James can use that perch in either the high or low post to facilitate an inside-out offense. He'll certainly have the opportunity to take his defender one-on-one, but by drawing the defense to him inside, James can also find those shooters with kickout passes. The Knicks' style and Miller's emerging confidence could make James a lethal playmaker.

Block the line
Following his team’s 104-89 victory over the Knicks last week, Houston general manager Daryl Morey took to his Twitter account (@dmorey) to hail his coaches’ blueprint to stop the Knicks: “Coaching staff w/great game plan against NYK. NYK spot up shooters more dangerous than Amare. No matter who is guarding Amare, avoid doubling.” It may seem painfully obvious, but the Knicks aren’t nearly as threatening if you neutralize their 3-point arsenal, even if it means letting Stoudemire go off. Unfortunately for the Knicks, locking down the arc is Miami’s strength as the Heat pride themselves on strong rotational work and lightning-fast close-outs. The Heat have successfully defended the 3-point line in the first two meetings against New York -- the Knicks have shot just 15-for-48 from downtown -- by following the Morey script and limiting open set shots. Keep a close eye on how the Knicks attack the slow-footed Juwan Howard on the perimeter, the Heat’s only healthy power forward on the roster.

Joel Anthony vs. Amare Stoudemire
Really? Sounds like an absurd mismatch! That might be the case at first blush, except that Anthony has matched up with Stoudemire effectively on the defensive side of the floor. The last time these teams hooked up at Madison Square Garden, Stoudemire managed only six points on 3-for-12 shooing from the field when Anthony was his primary defender. During the rematch in Miami, Stoudemire converted 4-of-12 against Anthony and drew a couple of fouls. Anthony has very quick feet and was very proactive in isolation situations, anticipating Stoudemire's right-handed drives before the first dribble hit the floor. When Stoudemire put Anthony in pick-and-roll situations, Anthony dropped back immediately, walling off the paint. Credit the rest of the Heat's defense, as well. When Anthony needed help, a baseline rotator arrived in time and ready to contest. Anthony won't start Thursday night, but given his success against Stoudemire, expect starter's minutes.

Miller Time in MSG?
In their third matchup of the season against the Knicks, the Heat lose Bosh but gain Miller. James knows he’s a big addition. “When we go to New York,” James said Saturday, “they'll have Mike Miller on the scouting report." Coming off an incredible 32-point breakout performance Saturday, the 6-foot-8 wingman will look to carry his momentum into Thursday’s game after a four-day layoff. What should the Knicks have on the scouting report? Move the ball and attack him on offense. Much has been made about Bosh adjusting to Miami’s demanding defensive schemes, but Miller has been slow on rotations and often looks out of sync with his teammates. Miller has stuck to the big man too long on rotations, leaving the weak-side perimeter open for skip passes. Look for the Knicks to challenge the Florida product by planting Stoudemire nearby and utilizing crisp ball movement.

Making it a board game
The average NBA team collects 26 percent of the available offensive rebounds in a game. How many times have opponents beaten that standard against the Knicks over the past 15 games? All but two. Not coincidentally, the Knicks are 6-9 over that span. By design, the Heat don’t recover a ton of their missed shots, preferring to retreat on defense to discourage the fast break -- but not in the Dec. 28 game against the Knicks. The Heat jumped to a big lead early thanks to Zydrunas Ilgauskas using his 7-foot-3 frame to get tip-in after tip-in on the Knicks' frontline. Bottom line, he’s really tall and the Knicks couldn’t really compete with his length with Stoudemire guarding him. However, the Knicks could choose to deploy Ronny Turiaf more this time around to push Ilgauskas away from the rim. Watch the chess game between the coaches. Do the Heat want to send Ilgauskas out there to stand tall or do they throw in Anthony to get out and run? If they want to win the board game, Big Z is the answer.

After being asked whether he thought he was worthy of an All-Star bid this season, Chris Bosh looked away and pondered the question. For a moment, it appeared he was searching for a selfless, diplomatic answer.

Then he responded with a devious smile.

“Of course.”

Bosh knows his numbers are down this season -- at least, the numbers that everyone talks about. Bosh is averaging 18.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 51.3 percent shooting this season, far cries from the career highs he enjoyed in 2009-10 for the 40-win Toronto Raptors. So maybe it’s no surprise that he ranks fifth in All-Star voting among Eastern Conference forwards behind LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Paul Pierce.

But to him and many others, being an All-Star isn’t about lofty per-game averages and flashy aesthetics; it’s a reward for playing winning basketball.

“I know I’m not the most popular player out there,” Bosh said after Saturday’s game. “I just concentrate on playing solid basketball. That’s what All-Stars do. Whatever it takes to help this team to win, that’s what I’m going to do.”

It’s a different tune from what he’s played in the past. As of now, Bosh says there are no plans to don a cowboy hat and dress like a car salesman in another YouTube All-Star voting campaign, as he did in 2007.

“I’ll keep my cars to myself right now,” Bosh said Friday.

This season, Bosh is letting his game speak for itself -- and his game certainly deserves the All-Star nod. Sure, Bosh’s per-game averages don’t scream superstar, but his overall contributions are certainly All-Star-caliber.

Among Eastern Conference forwards, only James has tallied more win shares than Bosh this season, according to Basketball-Reference.com. In fact, Bosh ranks seventh in the NBA overall.

What are win shares, you ask?

Win shares is an advanced metric that estimates how many wins a player contributes to his team, combining both offensive and defensive value. In 2010-11, Bosh’s play has translated to 5.1 wins so far, topping the totals for Pierce (4.6), Garnett (4.3) and Stoudemire (3.5) -- all of whom lead Bosh in fan voting.

Also bolstering his candidacy is that no other player has been a part of winning basketball more than Bosh this season. The Heat's starting power forward leads the NBA in plus-minus, with the Heat having outscored opponents by 322 points while he’s on the floor. James and Manu Ginobili are tied for second with a plus-289 rating on the season.

Standing in Bosh’s way is that his biggest strides this season are subtle. Although strong rotational work and pick-and-roll coverage are important to the ultimate goal of winning, dazzling help defense doesn’t exactly send fans sprinting to the All-Star ballot box. But Bosh has vastly improved in these areas this season, a requirement in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s airtight defensive schemes demanding quick footwork and team-focused habits.

The knock on Bosh, of course, is that he’s soft as Charmin Ultra. But the truth is that he’s stopping opponents in the post. Overall, the power forward has allowed only 47 points on 67 post-ups against him this season, according to Synergy video data -- a rate that places him ninth among the league’s 62 qualified big men. He ranks even better in one-on-one isolations.

Bosh’s conservative style of play doesn’t lend itself to fan adulation, unlike that of his more electric competition. Stoudemire masks his deplorable defense with thunderous dunks, and his 26.4-point scoring average grabs our attention even though it’s spurred by outrageous shot volume, not efficiency. Garnett doesn’t have eye-popping numbers, but his visible intensity makes his strong defense more captivating to audiences. People pay to see their theatrics as much as their talents.

Given that it’s unlikely that Bosh will leapfrog Garnett, Stoudemire and Pierce in the fan voting, Bosh probably will have to rely on the coaches' vote to earn a bid. As part of league rules, each coach must fill out a ballot selecting two guards, two forwards and a center, with the top seven vote getters winning a spot on the team in addition to the starters whom fans select. With a weak lot of shooting guards, there’s a good chance that, for the second year in a row, the East’s All-Star bench will be dominated by big men. That boosts Bosh’s chances at landing a spot. Unless coaches harbor serious anti-Heat resentment, Bosh should garner more support than other forwards in the field, such as Josh Smith, Wilson Chandler or Carlos Boozer.

In the end, Bosh is still playing All-Star basketball if the criteria are based on merit. He’s not putting up the same gaudy per-game numbers as we’re accustomed to seeing, but then again, Stoudemire and Dwight Howard are the only Eastern Conference players to beat Bosh’s scoring and rebounding averages. Bosh has a more complete game now in ways that aren’t obvious to the casual fan watching the highlight reels. But the sharpened eyes of opposing coaches can see his development. That alone may be all that matters.

Stifle the Knicks' pick-and-roll
Defending the Knicks' pick-and-roll attack was the No. 1 key for the Heat when these teams met 11 days ago at Madison Square Garden and it remains Miami's top defensive imperative. The Heat performed brilliantly in that game. Their point guards pursued Raymond Felton aggressively off the initial high screens, staying on his right shoulder. Back line rotators were poised and ready for Amare Stoudemire's slips and rolls to the basket. Off-ball defenders made kickouts to shooters difficult by plugging the passing lanes. By the time the second half rolled around, Knicks ball handlers had absolutely nowhere to go coming off screens -- and few desirable places to go with a pass. If the Heat can shrink the AmericanAirlines Arena floor in the same way, they should post another banner night defensively.

How Joel stopped Amare
Stoudemire ran circles around Zydrunas Ilgauskas early in Game 1, so Erik Spoelstra made an adjustment that changed the game: He stuck Joel Anthony on Stoudemire. Heading into the first meeting, Stoudemire had scored at least 30 points in nine straight games but Anthony shut him down in the second half. The Knicks star was 0-for-8 with two points after the 4:26 mark of the second quarter when guarded by the springy Anthony. Coaches always stress the importance of a defender moving his feet (not his hands) to “beat his man to the spot” and Anthony demonstrated textbook execution against Stoudemire. Stoudemire routinely caught the ball at the elbow and settled for jumpers when Anthony ignored his array of jab steps. Anthony managed to stay balanced in a wide stance in front of Stoudemire, cutting off his angles for potential penetration. Look for Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni to run more pick-and-rolls against Anthony to create more movement and less time for Anthony to square up on Stoudemire.

Heroball and LeBron
LeBron James delivered a masterful performance on the big stage at Madison Square Garden, scoring 32 points on 23 shots as part of his second triple-double of the season. But despite his gaudy numbers, the Knicks have to be pretty satisfied with how they defended him. Why? They kept him away from the rim and forced him to hit tough shots. James nailed pull-up jumper after pull-up jumper on that Friday night, shooting 7-for-9 on long 2s and 3-for-6 from downtown according to Hoopdata. And each of them was contested well. For all of James’ talents, that’s simply not sustainable. Outside of that game, James has shot 38.8 percent on long 2s and 36.5 percent from downtown this season. The only time James experienced a hotter hand on the perimeter was in Cleveland when he shot 10-for-17 from outside 16 feet. How’d he do against Cleveland the second time around? He missed all but one of his six shots from that area. The Knicks would be wise to coax LeBron into playing hero with low-percentage shots again even if they gambled and lost in Game 1.

Chase shooters off the line
It's really difficult to give the Knicks' pick-and-roll full coverage in the middle of the floor and still account for the Knicks' snipers lurking from 24 feet, one reason New York leads the NBA in 3-pointers attempted per game (24.7). In the first meeting, the Knicks attempted their average, but converted only eight of those 24 tries. They missed a few open looks but, for the most part, the Heat closed out decisively and aggressively. Still, there was probably a little too much open space for shooters on left side of the floor when the Knicks were running their pick-and-roll game on the right side for Stoudemire. The Knicks drained six of 11 3-point attempts along the left third of the arc in that game. The Heat's help defenders will have to stay light on their feet, ready to pounce if a penetrator or Stoudemire enters the paint, but also aware that they might have to change course in an instant and close out on Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.

Control the tempo
Are the Heat a breakneck transition team or a grind-you-into-submission half-court outfit? The answer is yes. Few teams have the versatility to be comfortable in any kind of basketball game and the Heat are clearly one of them. The trick for Spoelstra is getting his guys to use that flexibility to counter-program. When matched up against Golden State and New York, the Heat should force those teams into a more deliberate game and dominate the one-on-one matchups. When playing teams like Orlando or Milwaukee that prefer to play at a slower pace, Miami should rev up the engine and prevent its opponent from setting up defensively in the half court. The Knicks invite chaos, and the Heat must be selective. Can Miami turn those long Knicks misses into transition buckets while, at the same time, preserve a more controlled game that favors their lockdown half-court defense?