According to a recent Moneyball-style study highlighted in The New York Times on Sunday, the teams that draft best tend to draft players with at least two years of college experience. That seems to take some crap out of the crapshoot.
The problem with the study, however, is that it doesn't assess more than five years. Surely the high-schoolers close the gap a bit in their fifth and sixth years, when they're still improving (players typically start to peak around age 28). That study says the Sonics are the best drafters in the league, by the way, followed by Phoenix, San Antonio, and Miami.