ESPN NBA

Yesterday I put out a call for some way to measure players who are coasting for at least some of the regular season:

Here's one I've never seen but would love to see: who are the all-time regular season coasters? The guys who just don't play hard for much of the season, saving their knees, and their effort, for the late season and playoffs?

TrueHoop reader and veteran stat junkie Michael Goodman responded with a spreadsheet of stuff that looks really cool, but is hard for my Bachelor of the Arts mind. So I'll let him explain:

PO/RS is Playoff/Regular Season productivity ratio. Both are adjusted for team/opponent pace, year by year. A year with 400 playoff minutes counts 4x as much as a year with 100.



'Net' is calculated by player's (productivity*1.05)*(min/36)*(po/rs) The average po/rs is about .945, so the 1.05 cancels that: Anyone over .945 has a positive net. You may see the player's stats go down -- along with most others' -- but relative to the opponent, his team gains.

Here are the top twenty from his list:

	0.945	Net	PO/RS	POMin	Min/36
Robert	Horry	555	1.07	6740	187
Tim	Duncan	489	1.02	4910	136
Baron	Davis	283	1.15	1502	42
Dwyane	Wade	240	1.05	2133	59
Manu	Ginobili	232	1.05	2253	63
Caron	Butler	205	1.24	957	27
Tim	Thomas	199	1.12	1705	47
Tayshaun	Prince	196	1.03	3165	88
Derek	Fisher	182	1.04	3136	87
Paul	Pierce	158	1.04	1615	45
Ray	Allen	132	1.04	1563	43
Antonio	Daniels	126	1.07	1567	44
Richard	Hamilton	118	.99	3268	91
Allen	Iverson	118	.98	2779	77
Vince	Carter	101	1.02	1308	36
James	Posey	93	1.10	920	26
Antonio	McDyess	91	1.04	1055	29
Kirk	Hinrich	90	1.16	520	14
Eric	Snow	83	1.00	2212	61
Kenyon	Martin	82	.99	2112	59

No one can argue with Robert Horry topping this list. His teammate publicly accused him of as much a couple of years ago. (The only irony there is that the teammate making the accusation is second on this list.)



Shaquille O'Neal, whom I trotted out as the poster boy of taking some time off during the season, comes in 38th. I imagine that's because much of the time when he has been apparently coasting was time when he was on the injured list, and those games, I assume, did not count towards his productivity tally.



In fact, it occurs to me that playing through injuries in the regular season is a great way to get yourself on this list. A lot of the guys here have played at half-speed for stretches of their career. If they had been real coasters, they would have worn street clothes.



I wonder if anyone has a way to further refine this list to get to who it is that is really taking the most time off. (Even Mike himself admits that is not this list: "No," he writes, "I can't call out the 'coasters'. But Tim Thomas is a good start.") There is a difference that I'd like to get at, between Tim Duncan hobbling through almost all of last season on one leg, and whatever it is that Tim Thomas has been doing all these years.



Wow. I just checked out the bottom of the list. These would be people who have been frighteningly productive in the regular season compared to the playoffs. Some of the NBA's bigger playoff disappointments are here, as are several MVP candidates, and some championship winners. The last twenty are:

Jason Kidd, Predrag Stojakovic, Lindsey Hunter, Darrell Armstrong, Radoslav Nesterovic, Brad Miller, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Webber, Sam Cassell, Brent Barry, Bruce Bowen, Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker, Shawn Marion, Dale Davis, Jermaine O'Neal, Clifford Robinson, and (bringing up the rear) Gary Payton.

Notice how San Antonio Spurs are all over the top and the bottom of this list? (Theory: these are the guys who pick up the slack when Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili aren't 100%.)