ESPN NBA

ESPN's Hollinger has been tinkering for some time with launching a system that analyzes, in an intelligent way, the NCAA performance of players and then projects them as professionals.

He has come up with something pretty exhaustive, and he tested it against the last six drafts and found, essentially, that his system picks professionals better than actual NBA teams did. So, you know, that's something. 

But Hollinger's most relevant finding (it's free) for this draft is this:

Kevin Durant is the best talent to come out of the college ranks in the last half decade. As we've learned, this doesn't necessarily mean he'll become the best player. But his 870.7 score blows the previous best -- Carmelo Anthony's 781.3 in 2003 -- right out of the water. If there's one thing that makes me reconsider the Oden vs. Durant question after I thought it had been settled, this is it. I mean, how can you pass on this guy when his numbers are this overwhelming?

Oden isn't the only no-brainer on his college team. It might surprise some to see Conley rated so close to Oden on this list. No doubt that's partly because Oden played all year with a bad wrist (again, an example of where scouting can augment what's being done with numbers). But among point guards in the last six drafts, only Chris Paul rated higher than Conley. Suddenly it doesn't seem so silly for the Hawks to take him at No. 3, especially given their glaring need at that spot.

There are plenty more surprises. Jared Dudley is top ten. Corey Brewer is much lower. Acie Law and Spencer Hawes underwhelm, and Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt show up abysmally. 

By the way, I guarantee that once he gets this tool perfected, Hollinger will get at least one job offer from an NBA team.