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The 2008 TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown is going along nicely.

For a hot second there, the new guy, Stephen Ilardi, was in the lead. Then there was a day when if this happened, and then that happened, and one other thing didn't happen, then my mom would be tied for first place.

But Phoenix lost, and that whole dream evaporated.

Now, however, last year's champ Justin Kubatko is once again alone in first place. He's turning into kind of the Darth Vader of this competition. He picked the correct winner in every single first-round series so far, and the correct number of games in two of those eight. (The Boston series has no bearing, as everyone picked the Celtics in four.) Ilardi, for his part, would be tied or possibly in the lead, but for the fact that he bought into pre-series reports of an injury to Manu Ginobili, and discounted his Spurs numbers. (He joins Mike D'Antoni in the "victims of Gregg Popovich's mind games" club.)

The teams that lured experts into bad picks were the Suns (four experts out of seven went for them), the Wizards (three), the Rockets (two), and the Mavericks (one). Everyone picked the Magic, Lakers, Pistons, and for better or worse, the Celtics.

Now it's time for some second-round picks, and as a special deal, they are right here on TrueHoop, instead of on the main smackdown page. (Why, you ask? Because that page is run by people with actual knowledge of the back end of ESPN.com. Those people, however, are not robots, and thus need rest from time to time. It'll be added there shortly, but I wanted to make these public before this evening's games.)

So, without further ado, here are the expert's picks for the next two series. Some very interesting comments here about why these picks are as they are -- especially in the San Antonio vs. New Orleans series.

Pistons vs. Magic
Justin Kubatko: Detroit in 5
Stephen Ilardi: Detroit in 7
Mike Kurylo: Detroit in 7
Kevin Pelton: Detroit in 7
John Hollinger: Detroit in 7
Jeff Ma: Detroit in 7
Mom: Detroit in 6

Remember when Chris Webber said that the Detroit locker room is chaotic? That sure squared with what happened against the Sixers -- sometimes every Piston is clearly on the same page, and other times not even in the same book. I'm figuring that reality could be worth a game or two for the Magic. And you have to pencil in Dwight Howard for one or two more, don't you?

Alas, I'm no stat geek. Because to the keepers of the numbers, all of them, this is Detroit's series.

Mike Kurylo explains: "In statistics, all else being equal, you always take the bigger sample over the smaller one. Hence for 82 games Detroit was far superior to Orlando (as opposed to the last five or six games in the playoffs) and that's where my money is going. OTTER thought Detroit was the league's third best team during the regular season, and Orlando ranks a much lower tenth. Dwight Howard has been a beast, but Detroit is not short on quality bigmen with Rasheed, Maxiell, McDyess and Ratliff. Even if Detroit loses the battle at center (which they likely will), they are close enough in the frontcourt and superior in the other spots. Billups vs. Nelson, Hamilton vs. Evans/Bogans, Prince vs. Turkoglu all favor the Pistons. And that should tip the edge in favor of Detroit."

Kevin Pelton says: "Ultimately, I see this series coming down to two things. First, Orlando's success is largely dependent on hitting the three (though the Magic didn't shoot them very accurately at Toronto, the team did make nearly ten per game). Second, the Jameer Nelson vs. Chauncey Billups matchup. Orlando needs Nelson to at least come close to matching Billups' production."

Jeffrey Ma thinks Orlando will manage three wins thanks to some special factors: "I see Detroit being able to defend Orlando because of lack of stellar point guard. Detroit will lose a game at home, because Orlando has been good on the road all season. And what Webber said about the Pistons' locker room couldn't have borne out more."

Hornets vs. Spurs
Stephen Ilardi: Spurs in 6
Jeffrey Ma: Spurs in 6
Mike Kurylo: Spurs in 6
Justin Kubatko: Hornets in 7
Kevin Pelton: Hornets in 7
John Hollinger: Hornets in 7
Mom: Hornets in 6

A nice split! That means this'll be a must-watch, seven-game series, just like Phoenix vs. San Antonio. Oops.

John Hollinger is an international authority on basketball statistics. He justifies his pick this way: "New Orleans was the slightly better team in the regular season and again in the first round, and they have home court ... But what do I know -- I'm losing to Henry's Mom." (They were when he wrote this, but are now actually tied.)

Stephen Ilardi points to a conundrum: the Spurs are better than their regular season record suggests. "Based on simple team regressions alone, it should be Hornets in seven, since New Orleans has been about +0.8 points per game better this year, and has the home court advantage for this series. But San Antonio has improved considerably in the post-season from an adjusted plus-minus standpoint, mostly by giving Kurt Thomas (+3.49) more minutes than Fabricio Oberto (-5.57), and by dramatically reducing the playing time of Jacque Vaughn (-5.45) and Damon Stoudamire (-7.21). I have the Spurs roughly four points per game better than the Hornets based on postseason playing time distribution, just enough to offset the +3.6 points per game home court advantage."

Jeffrey Ma says: "Both teams were impressive in the first round but you have to think San Antonio will have much better team defense than the Mavericks and will not let Chris Paul dominate. Bowen will likely check Paul and will certainly do a better job than Kidd, and you have to think the experience of the Spurs will be enough to get them through."

Mike Kurylo says: "Picking between these two teams is like picking between heads or tails on a flipped coin. They both finished with 56 wins, and both had comparable point differential. They split the regular season head to head matchup 2-2. San Antonio might get a slight edge because Parker and Ginobili missed a combined 20 games during the regular season, but that's negated by New Orleans' home court advantage. I could see these two teams playing a hundred games and ending up with 50 wins apiece. I would like to see the Hornets win because I think they'll make a better story line. But I promised this year to go with OTTER (my ranking system) which has the Spurs ranked fourth and the Hornets fifth by a slim margin. So I'm taking the Spurs."

Justin Kubatko, the reigning champ, is not daunted by recent fluctuations in numbers. "The numbers, he writes, "point to New Orleans, so that's my pick, New Orleans in 7. However, I really like the Spurs and would probably pick them if I were going with my gut. To make myself feel better I came up with three reasons (other than what my math is telling me) why the Hornets should win this series: 1) New Orleans has the home court advantage. 2) New Orleans split their season series with the Spurs, and the two wins were 24-point and 25-point blowouts. 3) Chris Paul was, by a fair margin, the best player in the NBA this season."

Kevin Pelton's rationale is similar. "After the first-round demolition of Phoenix, I'm fearful the Spurs snookered us in the regular season," he writes. "But had a couple of breaks gone differently in Games 1 and 5, we might not feel that way. I'm sticking with the weight of regular-season evidence. I'm sure some team has managed to win
consistently in the playoffs with only three players averaging more than eight points per game, but I can't think of any. If the Hornets control one of the big three, they'll win this series."