A Rocket Test for Ron Artest

July, 30, 2008
Jul 30
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ESPN's J.A. Adande explains Sacramento's strategy:

By going for draft picks and the expiring contract of Jackson they're sticking with their long-term strategy of good young players until they can be major players in the 2010 free agent market. That summer they can have Beno Udrih, Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Quincy Douby, Greene and three more draft picks under contract, plus some $25 million-plus in salary cap room.

Anyone want to argue with that? I didn't think so ...

Now, what about Houston? They get someone who is often a candidate to be an elite NBA player, without giving up a ton. And if you squint a little, they start to look a little like the champion Celtics, in that they have re-tooled to unite three big names on a team that can play some defense.

ESPN's John Hollinger makes what is, to me, the key point in this Ron Artest trade from Houston's perspective:

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there's The Window issue. Look, Houston's time is now, and when I say now I mean right now. Among the starters, McGrady is a very old 29, Yao is 28, Battier is 30 and Alston is 32; behind them, presumptive sixth man Luis Scola is 28, Head is 25 and Barry is 36.

With McGrady and Yao becoming increasingly brittle, it's incumbent on the Rockets to do whatever they can to contend for a title while their two stars are still capable of reaching the mountaintop.

By themselves that wasn't possible, as the past two seasons showed. With a third star and a team-oriented, defensive-minded squad around them, however, things start looking awfully interesting ... not to mention awfully similar to the reigning champions in Boston. It's a roll of the dice, sure, but it's a calculated risk with limited downside. Given the cards Houston had to play, it's a tremendous move.

The Rockets had to do something!

If I'm a Rockets fan, however, I would not yet clear shelf space for the trophies. Ron Artest, to me, has a lot to prove before I believe he can be a key part of a title team. His career arc reminds me a little bit of Zach Randolph, in this regard: as a hungry young player, he was one of the feistiest over achievers in role player history. As the centerpiece of a team, he has looked a little bigger, a little slower, and significantly less hungry ... except when it's time to shoot.

What's more, as the centerpiece of a team, he has not done all that much winning.

It is written in stone that Ron Artest is a great defender. That's his brand. But if you actually watch him play you'll see that it has not always been true lately. Great defense requires constant effort, and Ron Artest has not, of late, been the king of constant effort. To my eye, he has been furious only in spurts, while at other times he has looked almost whimsical.

The Artest stories that bothered me the most were those of him blowing off play calls to create his own tough shots outside of the offense. He was willing to leave one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA, Kevin Martin, standing out there without the ball. Can we be sure that he wouldn't do the same to Tracy McGrady or Yao Ming?

And the traditional notion of the third scorer is someone who will punish defenses for double-teaming the first two scorers. The simplest way to do that is to be able to hit open jumpshots, like all of the Celtics' big three can do.

According to Synergy Sports statistics, Ron Artest's catch-and-shoot offense is only average. His 3-point shooting could save him there, but shooting two-pointers while unguarded is not his thing. He's a guy who is at his best going to the hoop one way or another, or using the ball to create something either on the break, in the pick and roll, or one-on-one.

But all that takes time with the ball, and when Artest has the ball, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are probably not doing what they do best.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic. Maybe the fact that he's on a new high-quality team, playing for his favorite NBA coach, and in a contract year will bring out the best in Ron Artest. If Artest can bring team-oriented, high-energy play every night, then this move will look brilliant. But that is, in my mind, a big if.

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