Putting Your Teams' Chances of Winning the Lottery in Familiar Terms
May, 19, 2009
Alok Pattani of ESPN Statistics and Information Research has done something fabulous: He has come up with basketball things that are about as likely as this or that team winning the lottery:
- The Kings are 25% likely to win the top spot, which is about as likely as Kevin Martin scoring more than 30 points in any given game.
- The Wizards have a 17.8% shot, which is about how often they lost a game by 20 or more points this season.
- The Clippers are 17.7% likely to win. That's roughly how often Eric Gordon scored 25+ points.
- The Thunder have an 11.9% chance at the top spot. That's about as likely as Kevin Durant shooting over 60% from the field for a whole game.
- The Timberwolves have a 7.6% chance of winning the lottery. That's about as common as this year's Timberwolves winning consecutive games.
- The Grizzlies have a 7.5% chance of winning, which is about as likely as the Grizzlies having a 50-win season.
- The Warriors, with a 4.3% chance, are about as likely to win the lottery as they are to hold an opponent below 90 points in a game.
- The Knicks likelihood of winning, 2.8%, is about the same as their likelihood of shooting fewer than 20 3-pointers in a game.
- The Raptors are as likely to win (1.7%) as Jose Calderon is to likely to miss a free throw.
- Michael Redd is as likely to make five straight 3-pointers as the Bucks, with a 1% chance, are likely to win the lottery.
- The Nets are as likely (0.9%) to see Devin Harris, as a Net, having a 40-point, 10-assist game as they are to win the lottery.
- The Bobcats chances of winning (0.7%) are roughly the same as their likelihood of going on a six-game winning streak.
- The Pacers have 0.6% chance at the top spot. Troy Murphy, as a Pacer, scores 25+ points about 0.6% of the time.
- Shaquille O'Neal is about as likely to make eight straight free throws as the Suns are to win the lottery, with a 0.5% likelihood.