Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Paul Millsap's career night
By Henry Abbott
Look at Paul Millsap taking those 3s!
Is he supposed to do that?
Stephen Ilardi (author, academic, TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown participant and, it appears, new member of some NBA team's staff) e-mails with one amazing little fact.
Last night, on his way to making 19 of 28 shots, to finish with a career high 46 points -- and a road win in Miami -- Paul Millsap made three 3-pointers.
So, that's three 3-pointers in one game, including, as you see above, some game-changing ones. Know mow many 3s he had hit in the 328 NBA games he has played in prior to last night?
He was just two of 20 for a career, and then three of three on one magical night.
Now that he has hit these ones, though, what are the chances he attempts only 20 over his next 328 games?
That's part of the hot hand discussion, which I know will come up in the comments down there. But for the record, the research says that the hot hand may or may not exist, but if it does, the effect is overwhelmed by the reality that hitting a few shots inspires players to take several bad ones. If Millsap starts taking more 3s, and misses a lot of them, it would fall in line. And if he doesn't shoot more 3s ... well then I'd take that as evidence Jerry Sloan really does run the most disciplined team in the NBA.