TrueHoop: Brandon Jennings
The "I" in Knicks spells doom again
January, 21, 2012
Jan 21
1:07
AM ET
KNICKS MAKE IT A NICKEL
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the New York Knicks who have now lost five straight games and stand at 6-9. Although Carmelo Anthony scored 35 points in the loss, the Knicks now stand at just 20-21 since trading for him last February.
A trend of leaning on Anthony in isolation continued against Milwaukee, as Anthony accounted for 15 of the Knicks’ 19 plays in isolation. On the season, the Knicks have ran a higher percentage of isolation plays than any other team, but are shooting just 29.3 percent on such plays, the worst in the NBA.
Brandon Jennings scored a season-high 36 points in the win, but did so without attempting a single free throw. He is the first player to score at least that many points without attempting a free throw since Jason Richardson in January 2008. Two of the three highest scoring games of his career have now come at Madison Square Garden, having hung 37 on March 25 of last season.
HOWARD SHOULDERS THE LOAD
Dwight Howard had 21 points and 23 rebounds to lead the Orlando Magic over the Los Angeles Lakers 92-80. It was Howard’s fifth game with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds this season, more than the rest of the NBA combined. According to Elias, Howard is the first player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975-76 with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds in five of his team’s first 15 games of the season.
Although Kobe Bryant scored 30 points, the Lakers offense continues to struggle as they failed to top 100 points for the 10th straight game. That is tied for the second-longest such streak by the Lakers in the shot-clock era (since 1954-55).
BULLS WIN WITHOUT ROSE
Despite playing without Derrick Rose, the Chicago Bulls won 114-75, handing the Cleveland Cavaliers their worst home loss in franchise history. According to Elias, the 39-point margin of victory is the second-largest ever by the Bulls over the Cavaliers, trailing only a 121-80 result on December 22, 1970.
Chicago held Cleveland to just 30.3 percent shooting, the fifth-lowest allowed in a game this season. It was the fifth time this season the Bulls have held their opponent to under 35 percent shooting. The Lakers are the only other team with even three such games this season.
AROUND THE ASSOCIATION
• The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Atlanta Hawks 90-76 to improve to 11-4, their best start since starting 11-4 in 2002-03.
• LaMarcus Aldrige had 33 points, 23 rebounds and five assists to lead the Portland Trail Blazers over the Toronto Raptors. He is only the sixth player in the last 25 seasons to reach those threshold in a single game and the first to do it since Kevin Garnett in 2003-04.
• The Detroit Pistons scored 81 points in a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. It’s Pistons’ 16th straight game they have failed to score 100 points, their third-longest such streak in the shot-clock era.
Thursday Bullets
October, 27, 2011
10/27/11
12:49
PM ET
- Owning an NBA team might not be as miserable as some make it sound. University of Chicago economist Kevin Murphy, who is consulting the players union, speaks about the glory of equity in an interview with NBA.com's Steve Aschburner: "There are a couple of things that are really attractive. One is, historically, you’ve seen franchises appreciate in value and that appreciation has more than outstripped any cash-flow losses that you’ve had. And if you’re in the right tax position, it’s actually pretty good because you’ve got a tax loss annually on your operating and you’ve got a capital gain at the end that you accumulate untaxed until you sell it and then pay at a lower rate. So you get a deferred tax treatment on the gains and an immediate tax treatment on the losses, that’s not a bad deal."
- The Milwaukee Bucks never stop working, but they're fundamentally a poor offensive club. If that's going to change, an inefficient Brandon Jennings will need to improve his shot from long-range, learn how to draw some fouls and figure out how to finish.
- A legal battle between Michael Beasley, his former agent and an AAU power broker grows uglier. Beasley's third-party complaint against Curtis Malone, his old AAU coach, reads: "In summary, Third-Party Defendant, in concert with [Bell Sports, Inc.] corrupted every mechanism of honest guidance Beasley had in his life to assist him to pursue the best NBA agent available, which seriously deprived Beasley, both economically and otherwise." Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports has more.
- Do you remember whom the Trail Blazers got for Sam Bowie in 1989? He wasn't Michael Jordan, but a very, very nice piece nonetheless.
- The sale of the Atlanta Hawks to Alex Meruelo might be on the verge of collapsing because Meruelo doesn't have sufficient resources. How was Meruelo going to finance the sale? By borrowing from the sellers. There's mounting evidence that this a lousy template for the sale of a big-league sports franchise. We present the Los Angeles Dodgers as Exhibit A, but there are others.
- In a piece that cites the $33.5 million in public funds the city of Indianapolis coughed up to the Pacers (termed a "forgivable loan"), but makes no mention of the nearly identical amount the team paid to Mike Dunleavy Jr., T.J. Ford, James Posey and Jeff Foster in 2010-11, Anthony Schoettle of the Indianapolis Business Journal tells Pacers fans to root for the owners in CBA negotiations.
- Even those who want fewer games on the NBA schedule feel the quality of play suffered during compressed 1998-99 season. Was the frenzied, abbreviated free agency period that followed the settlement also a factor? Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don't Lie: "The 1998 free agent class, in terms of sheer numbers, was the largest ever; and instead of 29 teams taking their time as they worked through the hundreds that were available, the league and its players were forced to take fewer than three weeks to figure out where about half its workforce was going to play for the next few years." The free agency and player movement blitz that will be launched by a resolution is going to be a blast for NBA fans. General managers will have to recruit, react, pivot, hedge and react again in a split second. Is that a good thing? When you're staffing an office or choosing where you want to work or go to school, is your process better served with a careful evaluation of the candidates or a close consideration of how you think you'll fit in? Or is everyone better off by rushing into partnership? Which model do we think produces better personnel decisions?
- No arguments whatsoever with J.J. Redick's food trinity.
- Evan Turner learns that pet ownership isn't always what it's cracked up to be.
- This could be a fun artistic exercise for Heat haters and lovers alike.
- A.C.L tears: not just for pro athletes and aging amateurs anymore.
- Trey Kerby of TBJ pays a visit to 48 Minutes of Hell to talk about Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner and wedding parties on the 4-Down podcast.
- Riot police and demonstrators clash outside the Oakland apartment of Ethan Sherwood Strauss of Hoopspeak. His account of Wednesday night's events is full of nuanced imagery and observation -- and also this: "A certain neuroses prevents me from subsuming my personality into any collective emotion. It’s rooted more in an intense fear of getting manipulated than any grand, righteous code."
Justin Bieber plays basketball
February, 19, 2011
2/19/11
12:09
PM ET
Justin Bieber took the court in the All-Star celebrity game, and he was not the best player on the court -- he missed eight of his eleven shots, had some frustration fouls and was a liability on defense. He wasn't the biggest, either. But thanks to fan votes determining the pick, he was both the MVP (despite his team losing), and the player who had the NBA talking:
Many thanks to Bryan Gold for editing.
Many thanks to Bryan Gold for editing.
The most dramatic shot of the Las Vegas Summer League came at the buzzer of the 58th and final game -- a side-winding heave by Mark Tyndale to give the D-League Select a 79-78 win over the Clippers:
- How will Larry Sanders' game fit in with Milwaukee's existing parts? His sound face-up 18-footer will help a Bucks offense that was choked for open space in the half court. He also gives Brandon Jennings another dependable partner on the pick-and-roll and wins almost every race to the rim in transition. A Sanders-Andrew Bogut tandem could eventually constitute the best defensive frontcourt in the league. Milwaukee is unlikely to reach the highest echelon in the East with its firepower, but by blanketing the paint with two capable pick-and-roll defenders who can block shots and clean the glass, the Bucks have the makings of a team that could post a stingy defensive efficiency rating in the high 90s.
- Luke Babbitt will be a deadly catch-and-shoot threat and will give Portland the spacing it needs when he's on the floor at either forward spot. On dribble-drives, Babbitt's handle is strong enough, but he had trouble finishing at the rim this week through traffic. In his final game, Babbitt made an adjustment. He was still aggressive off the dribble, but looked to draw and absorb contact. Babbitt got to the stripe eight times (8-for-8) after earning only 13 attempts in his first four games.
- After turning the ball over 28 times in his first four games, Clippers point guard Eric Bledsoe put together a heady, controlled performance against the D-League Select team. He changed speeds and read the defense beautifully off high ball screens from Rod Benson -- bursting into the paint only when invited, and making smart passes or drawing contact when the defense converged. He scored 13 points (6-for-10 from the field), grabbed five rebounds and dished out five assists against three turnovers.
- The Spurs bludgeoned the Grizzlies by sticking Benetton Treviso guard Gary Neal in the left corner and creating open looks for him off drive-and-kicks or curls. When sets broke down for the Spurs, Neal was the safety valve. He hit 6-of-9 attempts from beyond the arc in the first half.
- Greivis Vasquez finished up an unremarkable week at the point for Memphis. Never has so much dribbling produced so few results.
- DeMarre Carroll, who has also struggled this week, looked more like the active, versatile forward whose intensity gave the Griz a jolt of energy at selective moments last season. He looked most comfortable at the 3 on Sunday.
- It's not unusual for a player to take a tour with one team in summer league and then hook on with another squad after the first team finishes up or has gotten a sufficient glimpse of him. Sun Yue started summer league with the Wizards, then moved over to the Bucks midway through the schedule. Meanwhile, Gary Forbes played sparingly with Houston, then got a call from the Clippers, who wanted to get a look at his game.
- At 6-foot-9, Wayne Chism defends all over the floor, fights through perimeter screens, keeps the ball moving and will battle -- even if he doesn't excel -- as a post defender. If he can get a little stretchier with his range, he could help out an NBA team in the future as a thinking man's Brian Cook.
- Yaroslav Korolev was in action against the Clippers, the team that drafted him in 2005 with the 12th overall pick. Now 23 years old, the 6-foot-9 Korolev has filled out and looks the part of the rangy, athletic all-purpose forward, but he still lacks an intuitive rhythm for the game. Against a small Clippers lineup, Korolev could've been a strong defensive presence, but he's far too timid as a helper. Offensively, he's decisive only as a spot-up shooter from distance. The closer he ventures to the basket, the less assertive he is.
- John Krolik of Cavs: The Blog on Omar Samhan: "Samhan has really worked on that pick-and-pop jump shot, and it's looked good throughout his time in Vegas. When he can get his feet set, he's very comfortable -- it's a very natural shot for him. He went 0-10 from the three-point line during his time at St. Mary's, but earlier today he stepped out behind the college three-point line and calmly swished one. He told me earlier in the week that he's working on extending his range to the NBA three, and he's making strides in that direction. Hopefully he performs well in Lithuania."
- New rule for Las Vegas Summer League 2010: Defenses are required to implement a full-court press for at least three possessions per half.
- Lang Whitaker will be live-blogging the draft Thursday with Brandon Jennings at SLAMonline: "No player had a crazier Draft night last year than Brandon — remember him showing up late to shake David Stern’s hand? — and only one or two rookies had better first seasons than Brandon. Few of the Draft 'experts' you’ll hear from on Thursday night (including myself) actually played in the NBA. But none of them averaged 15.5 ppg and 5.7 apg and led their team to the Playoffs last season."
- The Mies van der Rohe Award for roster minimalism goes to ... the Miami Heat. After dealing away Daequan Cook to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, Miami has only two players under contract for the 2010-11 season -- Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley. They also have a boatload of cap space to re-sign Dwyane Wade and add possibly two additional marquee names.
- Chalmers will be doing some important work in Lawrence, Kansas today: "The Mario V. Chalmers Foundation is donating $25,000 to LMH Endowment Association to establish the first 'Mario’s Closet.' Mario’s Closet will be a specialty shop for a variety of free or low cost accessories for cancer patients. Lawrence Memorial Hospital will operate Mario’s Closet and is anticipated to open in Winter 2010."
- Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus says the deal makes a lot of sense for the Thunder: "Cook is hardly a typical contract dump. His salary for next season ($2.2 million, per Sham Sports) is perfectly reasonable, and Cook brings to Oklahoma City a skill (perimeter shooting) that is still in relatively short supply there. The Thunder has a chance to look at Cook next season and see if he can return to usefulness as a reserve; if not, Oklahoma City can cut bait at the end of the year with no further obligation."
- Peter Keating revisits the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative developed by Jordan Brenner and Tom Haberstroh. Keating adds: "[K]eep an eye on Al-Farouq Aminu. He's from Wake Forest, the school whose players have most surpassed draft-day expectations. He's a sophomore, the best-producing class among early picks. And he's one of the top small forwards in a draft top-heavy guards and big men, so a team that grabs him around No. 7 or 8 could get great value."
- If you watched enough ACC basketball last winter, then you know big, savvy guard Greivis Vasquez is a prime candidate for 2010 draft sleeper. John Hollinger's Draft Rater projects Vasquez as the 10th best pro on the board. Vasquez worked out for the Magic on Monday. Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post broke down Vasquez's game, and enumerates why he'd be a particularly good fit in Orlando if he's still available.
- Lest we forget how well Evan Turner performed at Ohio State in 2009-10, Ed Weiland of Hoops Analyst spells it out nicely: "[T]his was almost a historic season by Evan Turner in how truly impressive it was. I can’t imagine how overboard the hype would have been if this season had been accomplished by a player from Duke or North Carolina. Turner scored like the best SGs, rebounded like a PF and passed like a PG. There wasn’t anything here not to like."
- Ted Leonsis, Homer, LeBron James, Aaron Rodgers and Gilbert Arenas all in one place.
- The salary cap and on-court implications of Corey Maggette's arrival in Milwaukee.
- Kansas Jayhawks Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry are making the most of their time in New York City, which included a visit to Sean John: "So swanky was the experience that at one point, when Aldrich and his girlfriend, KU student Britt Claflin, were in the back picking out the suit’s particulars, a woman emerged from the suite and said, 'Mr. Aldrich would like a cranberry juice.' Within seconds, a bartender chipped the ice, popped the top and served up a refreshing beverage."
- Evan Turner in pleated khakis, Al-Farouq Aminu in Urkel eyewear and Luke Babbitt in Naomi Wolf-inspired earth tones.
- Roland Lazenby on the prospect of Phil Jackson's retirement: "All across the NBA you can hear coaches breathing a sigh of relief. If Jackson retires, there'll be no pressure to meditate and read books."
- If you see an impatient J.R. Smith or DeAndre Jordan in line at the Apple Store, today is your lucky day.
- NBA Elite 11 will have some new features that will improve upon NBA Live: "'That's why when we started this year, we addressed the two biggest problems people have with basketball games. Number one: losing control of your player. If you played the basketball games the past few years, you know that there are times when you get locked into these animations and you have no control over your player as these long animations play out.' With 'NBA Elite 11,' Littman and crew think they've solved that problem by separating the upper body from the lower body with the use of the two analog sticks."
- Poland lost its head of state and several other top government officials in a plane crash over the weekend. Prior to the Magic's game at Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, Marcin Gortat wrote Polish President Lech Kaczynski’s name on the tape around his wrist, and the flight number on his shoes.
- A smart recap of Sunday's Lakers-Portland game from Andrew R. Tonry and Portland Roundball Society. You'll find plenty of video reaction from key players -- including a Brandon Roy interview from the training room.
- Kevin Pelton's has posted his picks for NBA All-Defensive team at Basketball Prospectus. Pelton implores you not to laugh at his selection of Brandon Jennings as his choice for second team at the point guard position, and offers up a solid defense of Jennings.
- Some interesting data from Zach Lowe of Celtics Hub about Milwaukee's offense since Andrew Bogut went down: "The Bucks inside game has vanished without Bogut. The missing shot attempts have to go somewhere, and, to the surprise of no one reading this, they’ve gone out further from the rim."
- The Thunder's offense has a tendency to cramp up in the closing minutes. Last night, Oklahoma City trailed Golden State by one point inside of three minutes. NBA Playbook demonstrates how Russell Westbrook was unable to get Kevin Durant the ball, even though Durant was being guarded by Monta Ellis.
- Durant's "sit back and chill" musical selection.
- Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside catalogs the NBA players currently averaging a double-double. Which of these names is not like the others?
- John Calipari: Not a fan of NBA eligibility rules: "I think that one, kids should be able to go directly to the league if that’s what they choose to do and if they go to college, they should stay two years or maybe three."
- Phoenix has been one of the standout teams in the league after the All-Star break, but there are a couple of red flags for Alvin Gentry's squad headed into the postseason. Kelly Dwyer watched the Suns-Rockets game last night and notes: "Houston was able to walk all over Phoenix's interior, and though the Rockets lost, it's clear that whoever the Suns meet in the playoffs is going to have a field day in the paint as long as Amar'e Stoudemire and Channing Frye are patrolling things."
- The NBA has become a mojito league.
- Matt McHale of By the Horns: "I’m here to tell you Joakim Noah is a winner. He goes full tilt every night. He wants it as bad as anybody. The dude is like a lightning storm on the court. Noah has limitations, and there are facets of his game that still need to be improved and polished. But honesty, every team would like to have a player like Noah on their roster. Heck, probably a whole team of Noahs (which is a scary notion, now that I think about it). Somebody who will sacrifice their body for the good of the team and would walk face-first through a Kraken attack to win."
- Mark Ginocchio of Nets are Scorching recounts some of his favorite Meadowlands memories, including Drazen Petrovic's inside-out exploits and Kenyon Martin being called a fugazi.
- John Krolik appreciates that mummifying LeBron James in bubble wrap until next weekend might be the smart way to go for Cleveland, but he's about ready for some meaningful basketball.
- Where do Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin rank historically among Rocket backcourt tandems?
- NBA player and NBA dad enjoy lunch at ... The Cheesecake Factory.
Snow storms vs. All-Star travel
February, 10, 2010
2/10/10
5:49
PM ET
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
The only thing between Brook Lopez and Friday's rookie game in Dallas is a blizzard.
Here in New Jersey, if you look out the window ... well, you hardly can. The snow is stacked so high on the sill that half the pane is covered. Even where you can see the world beyond, it's all the same anyway. Almost no cars driving by. Hardly even any tree bark showing. A polar bear could stand anywhere she wanted and be hard to spot.
Meanwhile, just about everyone in the NBA world is due to travel to Dallas for the All-Star game. All the way through Friday, planes to DFW are booked solid. The airport will be a who's who of the NBA.
If they can get there!
Imagine what kind of NBA disruption could cause if airports are all closed.
League vice president of basketball communications Tim Frank is already in Texas, and says he's "not aware of any plans to schedule anything differently" because of the weather, even though Dallas itself is due for some snow.
Not everyone will make it on time, however. For a period on Wednesday, nearly every flight from the Northeast was canceled.
Which I discovered in trying to confirm my own seat. At that point, I was looking into Amtrak to Dallas. Philadelphia-Pittsburgh-Chicago-Dallas, anyone? It's only 24 hours. The only problem is it's sold out and massively delayed -- they can't keep the snow off the tracks. How about a train or a bus to a city with a working airport? One of the nearest that was not experiencing massive delays was in Kentucky. That's 13 hours on a good day. Meanwhile, the cars I have seen moving around this part of the world by are mostly being propelled by humans running along behind, pushing. By dumb luck, as it happens, my flight is back in business. The travel agent says that if I don't make it on that one, I'd be fortunate to get even a Saturday flight.
Which made me think: Wow. What about, for example, all those players who have to play in Friday evening's rookie game?
Many are in good shape. Michael Beasley's game tonight is in Atlanta. Eric Gordon is playing at Golden State. Omri Casspi and Tyreke Evans are in Detroit, where the airport is said to be operating normally. Dejuan Blair is in Denver, Taj Gibson is in Chicago, Jonny Flynn is in Minnesota. Those airports are reportedly working.
Brandon Jennings and his Milwaukee Bucks, however, are in New Jersey to play the Nets tonight. Ordinarily, teams fly home after the game and fly straight back home. Once in Milwaukee, reports are the airport is open. But indications are that planes may have trouble getting in and out of New York area airports tonight, as the snow promises to continue into morning.
At least Jennings can leave the Northeast on a private jet as soon as the runways are open.
Most people are stuck trying to win the lottery of finding seats on commercial flights out of the New York area, just as thousands of flights have been canceled from Washington to Boston.
The Nets' Brook Lopez, for instance, is without a private jet, hoping to leave New Jersey by commercial plane tomorrow. Does he have it all worked out?
"Not sure yet," says Nets' media guy Aaron Harris. "Trying to work out the flight schedules. Don't know what's going to happen yet. Will know more later tonight or tomorrow morning."
Harris adds his own flight to Dallas "is still on, I think. But I don't think the your readers really care about me."
Of course he's dead wrong about that though. If Lopez can't make it, Harris might have to suit up.
Brandon Jennings' All-Star weekend goal
February, 5, 2010
2/05/10
9:47
AM ET
Those players lucky enough to be invited to All-Star weekend probably have an assortment of goals: To get some rest. To attend this or that party. To rub elbows with corporate sponsors. To see friends and family.
In other words, for people who obsess night in and night out with winning basketball games, this weekend is typically a break from that -- which is reflected, for instance, in the main game's performance, which is often somewhere between showy and lackadaisical.
Brandon Jennings, though, he's an intense dude, and he tells Howard Beck of The New York Times that he has a real goal: "to break the assists record at the rookie-sophomore game."
He'll be on a roster loaded down with guards used to handling the ball, including Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry and James Harden. It'll be a miracle if any point guard gets long minutes. Lots of his teammates will be looking to set up teammates, too. (It might be easier, this year, to try to set the scoring record.) And they'll be playing a bigger, stronger sophomore team that may be able to make it hard for Jennings' teammates to score as easily as they might in other years.
The cards are stacked against him.
But there's a certain professionalism in boarding the plane for Dallas with that goal. And there's a certain moxie in announcing that goal more than a week out. Suddenly, this is the thing I'm most excited to see in Dallas next weekend. A good basketball player, working hard against long odds. Good stuff.
In other words, for people who obsess night in and night out with winning basketball games, this weekend is typically a break from that -- which is reflected, for instance, in the main game's performance, which is often somewhere between showy and lackadaisical.
Brandon Jennings, though, he's an intense dude, and he tells Howard Beck of The New York Times that he has a real goal: "to break the assists record at the rookie-sophomore game."
He'll be on a roster loaded down with guards used to handling the ball, including Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry and James Harden. It'll be a miracle if any point guard gets long minutes. Lots of his teammates will be looking to set up teammates, too. (It might be easier, this year, to try to set the scoring record.) And they'll be playing a bigger, stronger sophomore team that may be able to make it hard for Jennings' teammates to score as easily as they might in other years.
The cards are stacked against him.
But there's a certain professionalism in boarding the plane for Dallas with that goal. And there's a certain moxie in announcing that goal more than a week out. Suddenly, this is the thing I'm most excited to see in Dallas next weekend. A good basketball player, working hard against long odds. Good stuff.
Seven questions for 2010
December, 30, 2009
12/30/09
7:50
PM ET
One of the simple ways of experiencing basketball is by talking about it with people who share your love of the game. One of the people I enjoy rapping with is John Krolik of Cavs the Blog and SLAM Online. The best conversations are the ones that produce interesting questions, then aim to answer them. Here are some of those questions about the NBA John and I have been bouncing around in our last couple of conversations:
As guys get freakier and more athletic, are we witnessing an end to positional orthodoxy?
JK: We're definitely seeing a lot of blurring in positional lines, particularly outside of the center position. One thing in particular I like is the rise of the true combo guard. Early in the decade, we got a lot of alleged "combo guards" who were really just superpowered bench gunners given control of teams with mixed results; Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, et cetera. (Iverson is Iverson.)
But now we're really starting to see effective players who are a cross between the one and the two in a good way, and they're being complimented with other multi-skilled guards rather than going with a strict point guard/shooting guard backcourt. In San Antonio, they put Tony Parker, who's a great scorer for a point, next to Manu, who's a great playmaker for a shooting guard, and things went well. The double-combo backcourt of Mo Williams and Delonte West turned Cleveland's backcourt from a disaster area to a huge strength last season. Even Jason Kidd, the truest of points, is playing with JET and JJ Barea, and has even become adept at knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s off of other people's assists. Phil Jackson's won only 10 championships using an offense that doesn't require a traditional point. And so many young combo guards are coming in with tons of talent: Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings and even John Wall, who should definitely be put next to a guy who can pass and shoot when he comes into the league so that he can spend some time in each game going on guilt-free scoring rampages. Wall might be the combo-guard messiah.
KA: This is a beautiful trend because it's created a much more diverse range of basketball styles. Very few teams around the league look alike, even though many of them run much of the same stuff. The fact that so many players can do so many different things on the floor creates an exponentially greater number of things a team can do schematically. On many teams, shots on the floor can be drawn up for almost any player at any spot! Part of this can be attributed to athleticism. One the things that made a power forward or a center a big men was his ability to perform big men tasks -- rebounding, shot-blocking, the ability to routinely get high-percentage shots close to the rim. Today's NBA perimeter players have the athleticism to do a lot of that -- and many of the bigger guys in the league have perimeter skills, as well.
This seems like a nice segue to ...
Do traditional big men have a future?
KA: Whether you chalk it up to the prohibition of hand-checking or the stylings of Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns teams (I'd argue that former rendered the latter), the professional game has undergone a seismic shift over the past decade. Perimeter play has taken over. Today's power forwards have big guard games and two of the top three players in 3-point attempts are 6-foot-10. It's a world gone mad, but you can't complain about the product on the court. The NBA has never been more fun to watch, and we're just getting started...
...or are we?
Trends have a way of feeling permanent while they're being experienced, but they rarely last forever. At some point, laws of macroeconomics take over. Right now, there aren't more than a handful of big men in basketball who have refined post moves and can drain a running right-handed hook with consistency. Teams don't value those attributes as much as speed and 3-point shooting. But as more and more players have the ability to drain 100-200 3-pointers per season at a 40 percent clip, the demand will shift. Kids who arrive on the NBA's doorstep with the ability to dominate the game inside with uncanny efficiency will be shopping skills that few teams will be able to defend.
JK: I'd say the hand-check rules imposed an artificial set of circumstances that forced a change, so I don't think we'll see the pendulum swing all the way back to where it was. But I think guys are finding out that even though big men need to be faster and more skilled than they used to be and can't count on getting minutes just because they can score with their backs to the basket and do nothing else (i.e. Eddy Curry), the post-up game is still a valuable weapon. Look at the Lakers. Andrew Bynum, when he's engaged, defends the rim, gets rebounds and is quick enough to find room and finish off of others, but also posts up. Pau Gasol plays the high-post, runs the floor, gets rebounds, passes beautifully and can knock down the mid-range jumper, but also has a wonderful post game. And of course Kobe can and does do just about anything that's possible for a basketball player to do, but also utilizes the post game.
I'd say that the post-up specialist won't be in vogue again in the foreseeable future, but more and more bigs and wings who can do what's demanded of them in the post hand-check NBA are going to find that the actual post game is still a hugely valuable weapon, especially as fewer and fewer teams know how to defend it.
Of the current young up-and-coming teams, which ones are for real and which ones will provide an entertaining illusion of success?
KA: When sizing up a team's future prospects, the first thing I ask myself is, "Can I imagine this team ranking in the top half of the league defensively?"
Oklahoma City is the quintessential upstart squad. They're fun, charismatic, dynamic, athletic ... and not all that impressive as an offensive unit. It's the Thunder's defense that's led them to a 17-14 record this season. So long as tough, lanky defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha are patrolling the perimeter (and James Harden too), opponents are going to have a tough time scoring against them. With that Kevin Durant angle pick-and-roll as the anchor of their offense, they're a good bet to win a playoff series sometime soon.
Brandon Jennings has sparked any and all attention the Bucks have received this season, but Milwaukee's frontcourt of Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute have put up gritty defensive numbers. Mbah a Moute comes as no surprise, but I was shocked by Bogut's stats, until I looked at his figures under Scott Skiles last season -- also really, really good. Once they get a (healthy) shooting guard who can play drive-and-kick off the Jennings-Bogut pick-and-roll, the Bucks could be dangerous under a coach who was booted from his last gig in Chicago after assembling the league's top-ranked defense and the Eastern Conference's 3rd best record the previous season.
Sacramento's lousy defensive numbers don't concern me right now. They strike me as a team that's going to experience a major overhaul over the next 18 months, and a big part of that metamorphosis will be acquiring some pieces around Tyreke Evans who can defend. I have less faith in Memphis, Minnesota, Golden State and, to a slightly lesser extent, Philadelphia, who all have rosters riddled with defensive ciphers.
JK: I think Oklahoma City wins a playoff series when their backcourt clicks into place, and that's close to happening. I love Westbrook's game and think he has a ton of potential, but he just needs to be more disciplined. He pushes the ball, plays great defense, and does all these little things, but then he'll throw up a bad jumper, brick a full-speed reverse layup, or make a silly pass, and his true shooting percentage and turnover rates are way off of where they need to be because of that. It'll be interesting to see if the answer there is Harden maturing to the point where he can play 30-35 minutes a game and cover some of Westbrook's weaknesses with his shooting, playmaking and ability to create off the drive. (Combo guards!) But I think that young frontcourt is the envy of a lot of teams in the league, Sam Presti keeps getting valuable pieces without giving up much, and I'd call the future very bright there.
For Sacramento, the short-term question is how Tyreke is going to work with Kevin Martin. They might cancel each other out or become absolutely unstoppable together, although they might need to do the latter to make up for Martin's suspect defense. But Thompson, Hawes, Casspi, and even Brockman all look like keepers, and Tyreke has given every indication that he can be built around.
In Milwaukee, I think they should be having serious brainstorms on how they can hide Mbah a Moute on offense so they can keep him on the floor longer, maybe even looking for a stretch four so they can put Mbah a Moute closer to the basket offensively and use him like Detroit used Ben Wallace. He's that good defensively.
I agree with you about the rest of the teams, although I give Memphis some upside because I think it's a bit too early to completely give up on Hasheem Thabeet as an impact player defensively; if Orlando could build a defense around Howard and four perimeter guys, there's a chance Memphis can as well. (A chance, mind you.)
What is it about Stan Van Gundy that we like so much?
JK: I think we've got a pretty narrow view of how to evaluate coaches, because we don't see the vast majority of what they do and we're trained to look for their failures and not their successes. Coaches almost exist to be fired, and every time they make a mistake with their play-call or substitution, it'll get talked about the next day.
I think the biggest job of a coach isn't to call timeouts strategically or be a genius with his in game substitutions. (Although both are definitely important, especially the latter.) I think the job of an NBA coach is to set up a system that best utilizes the talents he has available to him, and that's where Stan Van Gundy comes in, especially last season. Of his five starters, he had three guys with below-average defensive reputations, Dwight Howard, and a rookie.
Instead of trying to have everyone play straight-up or stick Rashard Lewis at the three, he evaluated what he had -- the best shot-blocker in the league and more quickness on the perimeter than most other teams had. So he stuck Lewis at the 4 and never looked back, and built a defense around running other teams off threes and keeping Howard at home under the basket. What happened? The Magic gave up the second fewest made baskets at the rim, the second fewest made 3s per game, and more shots from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet than any other team in the league. They also had one of the league's three best defenses in terms of efficiency.
Offensively, he had Dwight Howard, who can catch and finish with the best of them but isn't a great post player, more shooting and playmaking at the forward spots than most anyone, and a bunch of guys who can shoot threes. So he had Howard look for catches at the rim, ran 3/4 screen-rolls, and had his players shoot a bunch of threes rather than try to do what everyone else was doing. Van Gundy's failures last season were there for the world to see, but what he did extremely well was more subtle.
KA: I like his press conferences, too. The irony of Van Gundy is that popular perception sometimes paints him as inflexible. But as you said, no coach sculpted a more sensible system for his personnel last season than Van Gundy. He did a full appraisal of his talent, saw where he had edges over his opponents at each position (ballhanding at the 3, shooting at the 4, mobility at the 5) and designed his offense to exploit those advantages.
This isn't to say there's anything wrong with building an elite team by first implementing the system, then by populating that system with players whose talents most conform to it. Whatever works, by all means. Just win. But the ability to create a system around a disparate collection of talent that was brought together randomly is in many ways even more impressive.
Should LeBron James be playing more power forward?
KA: Despite James’ size, strength and efficiency on the glass, Mike Brown has him firmly situated at the small forward slot. In fact, you have to go pretty far down the list of Cleveland’s 5-man lineups to find units in which James is playing power forward. But in the six lineups that feature James surrounded by one traditional big man and three smaller players for at least 10 minutes, the Cavs outscore their opponents 96-83 (prorated for 48 minutes).
Those numbers are enough for me, but let’s think about it in practical terms. We’ve already discussed how positional dogma is a thing of the past in an NBA that’s much smaller than it was 10 years ago. When thinking about how to best maximize LeBron in the half-court, wouldn't you prefer that he drag a bigger defender out to him in order to create more space on the floor for your offense? And defensively, wouldn’t a team like Cleveland, whose primary weakness has been its plodding frontcourt, be better served by having LeBron cover Rashard Lewis on Orlando’s pick-and-pop or Boston’s bigs on the Celtics’ rotating screen-and-rolls? Doesn’t it make more sense to challenge Stan Van Gundy and Doc Rivers to match up with a more athletic lineup? And wouldn’t Cleveland benefit from more transition opportunities?
Would team rebounding suffer? When you look at those aforementioned six lineups with LeBron at the 4, the answer is no. Apart from the political stickiness of limiting the minutes of the Cavs' veteran big men, I have trouble seeing how making the Cavs a more athletic team around LeBron comes with much downside.
JK: The short answer is that I'm extremely confused as to why LeBron doesn't get more time at the 4 position, at least for around 10 minutes of his time on the floor. I understand some of the reasoning behind not giving him significant minutes down there. The Cavs show hard on every perimeter screen, which would require LeBron expending more energy on the defensive end than the Cavs are comfortable with, especially in the first three quarters. And of course, the Cavs don't want LeBron in foul trouble under any circumstances. And generally speaking, the Cavs' big men are better players than Jamario Moon, who typically plays the 3 in the Cavs' small-ball lineup. But LeBron getting the ball in the 10-15 foot range and making his move from down there is absolutely deadly, and that small-ball lineup should definitely be something used more often to keep opposing teams on their toes.
What confuses me more than anything is that while the Shaq/Varejao frontcourt has some offensive issues and the Shaq/Hickson frontcourt has some serious defensive issues, a Shaq/LeBron frontcourt hasn't been tried at all this season, and I mean at all. I suppose the reasoning is that LeBron would be forced to expend way too much energy on the perimeter defensively as Shaq sags to the paint on pick-and-rolls (LeBron's never gotten minutes at the four alongside Z either), but with the Cavs supposedly looking for a "stretch 4" at the deadline to make life easier for Shaq, it's odd that they haven't at least tried using LeBron in that role.
How Real is Dallas?
KA: Little known fact: Of the 50 5-man units that have played together the most this season, two of the top three in overall efficiency belong to the Dallas Mavericks. Whether it's Jason Terry or J.J. Barea at the shooting guard, the Mavs' big names are absolutely crushing their opponents on both ends of the floor. Dallas is a Top 5 defensive squad and features one of the game's great shotmakers in Dirk Nowitzki. They also have tremendous flexibility to match up with opponents on either end. They can play old-school or new-school. Want to tease the Mavs with small ball? That's fine, because they're perfectly good going with three guards and moving Shawn Marion and Nowitzki into the frontcourt. Want to try to outmuscle them? Erick Dampier may have an outsized contract, but he's also one of the better basket protectors and garbage collectors in the league. Opponents shoot a measly 57.4 percent at the rim against the Mavs -- only Boston, Cleveland and San Antonio are better.
More than anything, the Mavs strike me as a team composed of professionals. These are serious basketball players led by a serious coach. Is it possible that a squad with so many thirtysomethings breaks down physically over the course of an 82-game season? Perhaps. But where some see brittleness, I see experience. In fact, I see shades of the best San Antonio Spurs squads. I see a team that truly understands its collective talents and limitations and puts a premium on execution.
Can they compete with the Lakers in late May? I'm not sure anyone in the Western Conference can, but Dallas -- with its length, smarts, and perimeter prowess -- might just be the toughest competition the Lakers encounter.
JK: Dallas has a ton of talent, Dirk is right up there with the best players in the league, and the team defends. My caveat would be that they're thinner than people think, and much more dependent on Dirk. As of December 26th, Dallas was +11.6 points per 100 possessions with Dirk on the floor and a stunning -16.5 points per 100 with Dirk on the bench. As bad as LeBron and Kobe's benches are, their teams are only -8 when they sit, to offer some perspective.
A lot of that has to do with Drew Gooden; Gooden's plus-minus is -23.1, and as someone who's watched a good deal of Gooden in his life, I can tell you that's not random noise. Drew Gooden is the anti-Battier. I'm also not a huge J.J. Barea fan. He's fun to watch and works fairly well with Kidd offensively, but I believe you were the one who said he plays defense "like a man frantically searching for his car keys," and the plus-minus numbers support the theory that Barea's somewhat of a defensive liability. Dallas can play with anyone, especially when Dirk's on the floor, and if they do something to get a better backup for Dirk than Gooden and hide Barea's defense a little better (maybe play more Beaubois, who's gone through growing pains and will probably continue to do so, but has lockdown defensive potential), I'd call them a true force to be reckoned with in the West. If not, I'd say they have a solid puncher's chance of knocking the Lakers off their Western Conference throne.
How do we begin to make sense of adjusted plus-minus?
JK: Outside of the obvious conclusion, which is "no one stat or metric, no matter how advanced or intricate, is ever going to come close to saying everything about one player," I have two thoughts on adjusted plus-minus.
The first is that I get how the basic +/- you see in box scores and 82games.com's version of plus-minus work, but I still don't totally understand how advanced plus-minus works, and that's a problem. I mean, I get the theory, that it adjusts for having good or bad teammates or playing against good and bad opponents, but how exactly does it define "good" and "bad"? Is "good" based on the other guy's adjusted plus-minus, or is the value of others derived from something like Player Efficiency Rating? Aren't both approaches problematic? Right now, adjusted plus-minus is sort of "He's good. Trust me," which I have trouble swallowing as a fan and certainly can't use to convince friends or readers of a guy's value.
The second problem is one that will get fixed over time, which is that we still don't really know how to read plus-minus type stats yet. We know with a stat like field goal percentage that a shooting guard is going to have a lower field goal percentage than a center, but we also know that the guard is probably shooting more 3s, shooting his free throws better and taking tougher shots than the center. We know how to read that stat.
But because plus-minus is one number and so nebulous, we don't know which plus-minus numbers to take with a grain of salt and which ones not to. I'll bring up the semi-infamous Durant example here. Durant had terrible +/- ratings for his first two seasons, but has been incredible in year three. Was the Durant phenomenon ever even real, or did Durant actually improve this year in ways the stats didn't see? If we want plus-minus metrics to be as legitimate as the box score ones, we have to stress-test it like we have the conventional numbers that came before them.
KA: I'm drawn to adjusted plus-minus because I'm desperate to find any metric that will approximate a player's defensive value, something we just don't have the tools to do right now. I'm more faithful than I probably should be given the lack of stress tests you talk about. Your point is well-taken and I'd add that stats like these are only valuable to the extent that they're predictive. There will always be players who make colossal jumps or experience unusual crashes in productivity, but apart from outliers, a stat must be dependable enough to offer a clear -- if general -- estimation of what that player is worth in the past, present and likely future. I've begun to spend more time examining the adjusted plus-minus numbers of 5-man units rather than individuals, in part because it seems more practical.
I suspect we'll know a lot more in three to five years than we do now. The metric's practitioners (and the people who trust them) will have a better sense of where the numbers skews, what those number might miss and the kind of noise those numbers create. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the 2-year figures (and eventually 3-year, and 4-year). Any system that values Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant as the five best players in the NBA has to be on to something, right?
D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images
Combo Plate: A ball-handling scorer ... and a scoring ball-handler.
Combo Plate: A ball-handling scorer ... and a scoring ball-handler.
JK: We're definitely seeing a lot of blurring in positional lines, particularly outside of the center position. One thing in particular I like is the rise of the true combo guard. Early in the decade, we got a lot of alleged "combo guards" who were really just superpowered bench gunners given control of teams with mixed results; Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, et cetera. (Iverson is Iverson.)
But now we're really starting to see effective players who are a cross between the one and the two in a good way, and they're being complimented with other multi-skilled guards rather than going with a strict point guard/shooting guard backcourt. In San Antonio, they put Tony Parker, who's a great scorer for a point, next to Manu, who's a great playmaker for a shooting guard, and things went well. The double-combo backcourt of Mo Williams and Delonte West turned Cleveland's backcourt from a disaster area to a huge strength last season. Even Jason Kidd, the truest of points, is playing with JET and JJ Barea, and has even become adept at knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s off of other people's assists. Phil Jackson's won only 10 championships using an offense that doesn't require a traditional point. And so many young combo guards are coming in with tons of talent: Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings and even John Wall, who should definitely be put next to a guy who can pass and shoot when he comes into the league so that he can spend some time in each game going on guilt-free scoring rampages. Wall might be the combo-guard messiah.
KA: This is a beautiful trend because it's created a much more diverse range of basketball styles. Very few teams around the league look alike, even though many of them run much of the same stuff. The fact that so many players can do so many different things on the floor creates an exponentially greater number of things a team can do schematically. On many teams, shots on the floor can be drawn up for almost any player at any spot! Part of this can be attributed to athleticism. One the things that made a power forward or a center a big men was his ability to perform big men tasks -- rebounding, shot-blocking, the ability to routinely get high-percentage shots close to the rim. Today's NBA perimeter players have the athleticism to do a lot of that -- and many of the bigger guys in the league have perimeter skills, as well.
This seems like a nice segue to ...
Do traditional big men have a future?
KA: Whether you chalk it up to the prohibition of hand-checking or the stylings of Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns teams (I'd argue that former rendered the latter), the professional game has undergone a seismic shift over the past decade. Perimeter play has taken over. Today's power forwards have big guard games and two of the top three players in 3-point attempts are 6-foot-10. It's a world gone mad, but you can't complain about the product on the court. The NBA has never been more fun to watch, and we're just getting started...
...or are we?
Trends have a way of feeling permanent while they're being experienced, but they rarely last forever. At some point, laws of macroeconomics take over. Right now, there aren't more than a handful of big men in basketball who have refined post moves and can drain a running right-handed hook with consistency. Teams don't value those attributes as much as speed and 3-point shooting. But as more and more players have the ability to drain 100-200 3-pointers per season at a 40 percent clip, the demand will shift. Kids who arrive on the NBA's doorstep with the ability to dominate the game inside with uncanny efficiency will be shopping skills that few teams will be able to defend.
JK: I'd say the hand-check rules imposed an artificial set of circumstances that forced a change, so I don't think we'll see the pendulum swing all the way back to where it was. But I think guys are finding out that even though big men need to be faster and more skilled than they used to be and can't count on getting minutes just because they can score with their backs to the basket and do nothing else (i.e. Eddy Curry), the post-up game is still a valuable weapon. Look at the Lakers. Andrew Bynum, when he's engaged, defends the rim, gets rebounds and is quick enough to find room and finish off of others, but also posts up. Pau Gasol plays the high-post, runs the floor, gets rebounds, passes beautifully and can knock down the mid-range jumper, but also has a wonderful post game. And of course Kobe can and does do just about anything that's possible for a basketball player to do, but also utilizes the post game.
I'd say that the post-up specialist won't be in vogue again in the foreseeable future, but more and more bigs and wings who can do what's demanded of them in the post hand-check NBA are going to find that the actual post game is still a hugely valuable weapon, especially as fewer and fewer teams know how to defend it.
Of the current young up-and-coming teams, which ones are for real and which ones will provide an entertaining illusion of success?
KA: When sizing up a team's future prospects, the first thing I ask myself is, "Can I imagine this team ranking in the top half of the league defensively?"
Oklahoma City is the quintessential upstart squad. They're fun, charismatic, dynamic, athletic ... and not all that impressive as an offensive unit. It's the Thunder's defense that's led them to a 17-14 record this season. So long as tough, lanky defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha are patrolling the perimeter (and James Harden too), opponents are going to have a tough time scoring against them. With that Kevin Durant angle pick-and-roll as the anchor of their offense, they're a good bet to win a playoff series sometime soon.
Brandon Jennings has sparked any and all attention the Bucks have received this season, but Milwaukee's frontcourt of Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute have put up gritty defensive numbers. Mbah a Moute comes as no surprise, but I was shocked by Bogut's stats, until I looked at his figures under Scott Skiles last season -- also really, really good. Once they get a (healthy) shooting guard who can play drive-and-kick off the Jennings-Bogut pick-and-roll, the Bucks could be dangerous under a coach who was booted from his last gig in Chicago after assembling the league's top-ranked defense and the Eastern Conference's 3rd best record the previous season.
Sacramento's lousy defensive numbers don't concern me right now. They strike me as a team that's going to experience a major overhaul over the next 18 months, and a big part of that metamorphosis will be acquiring some pieces around Tyreke Evans who can defend. I have less faith in Memphis, Minnesota, Golden State and, to a slightly lesser extent, Philadelphia, who all have rosters riddled with defensive ciphers.
JK: I think Oklahoma City wins a playoff series when their backcourt clicks into place, and that's close to happening. I love Westbrook's game and think he has a ton of potential, but he just needs to be more disciplined. He pushes the ball, plays great defense, and does all these little things, but then he'll throw up a bad jumper, brick a full-speed reverse layup, or make a silly pass, and his true shooting percentage and turnover rates are way off of where they need to be because of that. It'll be interesting to see if the answer there is Harden maturing to the point where he can play 30-35 minutes a game and cover some of Westbrook's weaknesses with his shooting, playmaking and ability to create off the drive. (Combo guards!) But I think that young frontcourt is the envy of a lot of teams in the league, Sam Presti keeps getting valuable pieces without giving up much, and I'd call the future very bright there.
For Sacramento, the short-term question is how Tyreke is going to work with Kevin Martin. They might cancel each other out or become absolutely unstoppable together, although they might need to do the latter to make up for Martin's suspect defense. But Thompson, Hawes, Casspi, and even Brockman all look like keepers, and Tyreke has given every indication that he can be built around.
In Milwaukee, I think they should be having serious brainstorms on how they can hide Mbah a Moute on offense so they can keep him on the floor longer, maybe even looking for a stretch four so they can put Mbah a Moute closer to the basket offensively and use him like Detroit used Ben Wallace. He's that good defensively.
I agree with you about the rest of the teams, although I give Memphis some upside because I think it's a bit too early to completely give up on Hasheem Thabeet as an impact player defensively; if Orlando could build a defense around Howard and four perimeter guys, there's a chance Memphis can as well. (A chance, mind you.)
What is it about Stan Van Gundy that we like so much?
JK: I think we've got a pretty narrow view of how to evaluate coaches, because we don't see the vast majority of what they do and we're trained to look for their failures and not their successes. Coaches almost exist to be fired, and every time they make a mistake with their play-call or substitution, it'll get talked about the next day.
I think the biggest job of a coach isn't to call timeouts strategically or be a genius with his in game substitutions. (Although both are definitely important, especially the latter.) I think the job of an NBA coach is to set up a system that best utilizes the talents he has available to him, and that's where Stan Van Gundy comes in, especially last season. Of his five starters, he had three guys with below-average defensive reputations, Dwight Howard, and a rookie.
Instead of trying to have everyone play straight-up or stick Rashard Lewis at the three, he evaluated what he had -- the best shot-blocker in the league and more quickness on the perimeter than most other teams had. So he stuck Lewis at the 4 and never looked back, and built a defense around running other teams off threes and keeping Howard at home under the basket. What happened? The Magic gave up the second fewest made baskets at the rim, the second fewest made 3s per game, and more shots from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet than any other team in the league. They also had one of the league's three best defenses in terms of efficiency.
Offensively, he had Dwight Howard, who can catch and finish with the best of them but isn't a great post player, more shooting and playmaking at the forward spots than most anyone, and a bunch of guys who can shoot threes. So he had Howard look for catches at the rim, ran 3/4 screen-rolls, and had his players shoot a bunch of threes rather than try to do what everyone else was doing. Van Gundy's failures last season were there for the world to see, but what he did extremely well was more subtle.
KA: I like his press conferences, too. The irony of Van Gundy is that popular perception sometimes paints him as inflexible. But as you said, no coach sculpted a more sensible system for his personnel last season than Van Gundy. He did a full appraisal of his talent, saw where he had edges over his opponents at each position (ballhanding at the 3, shooting at the 4, mobility at the 5) and designed his offense to exploit those advantages.
This isn't to say there's anything wrong with building an elite team by first implementing the system, then by populating that system with players whose talents most conform to it. Whatever works, by all means. Just win. But the ability to create a system around a disparate collection of talent that was brought together randomly is in many ways even more impressive.
Should LeBron James be playing more power forward?
KA: Despite James’ size, strength and efficiency on the glass, Mike Brown has him firmly situated at the small forward slot. In fact, you have to go pretty far down the list of Cleveland’s 5-man lineups to find units in which James is playing power forward. But in the six lineups that feature James surrounded by one traditional big man and three smaller players for at least 10 minutes, the Cavs outscore their opponents 96-83 (prorated for 48 minutes).
Those numbers are enough for me, but let’s think about it in practical terms. We’ve already discussed how positional dogma is a thing of the past in an NBA that’s much smaller than it was 10 years ago. When thinking about how to best maximize LeBron in the half-court, wouldn't you prefer that he drag a bigger defender out to him in order to create more space on the floor for your offense? And defensively, wouldn’t a team like Cleveland, whose primary weakness has been its plodding frontcourt, be better served by having LeBron cover Rashard Lewis on Orlando’s pick-and-pop or Boston’s bigs on the Celtics’ rotating screen-and-rolls? Doesn’t it make more sense to challenge Stan Van Gundy and Doc Rivers to match up with a more athletic lineup? And wouldn’t Cleveland benefit from more transition opportunities?
Would team rebounding suffer? When you look at those aforementioned six lineups with LeBron at the 4, the answer is no. Apart from the political stickiness of limiting the minutes of the Cavs' veteran big men, I have trouble seeing how making the Cavs a more athletic team around LeBron comes with much downside.
JK: The short answer is that I'm extremely confused as to why LeBron doesn't get more time at the 4 position, at least for around 10 minutes of his time on the floor. I understand some of the reasoning behind not giving him significant minutes down there. The Cavs show hard on every perimeter screen, which would require LeBron expending more energy on the defensive end than the Cavs are comfortable with, especially in the first three quarters. And of course, the Cavs don't want LeBron in foul trouble under any circumstances. And generally speaking, the Cavs' big men are better players than Jamario Moon, who typically plays the 3 in the Cavs' small-ball lineup. But LeBron getting the ball in the 10-15 foot range and making his move from down there is absolutely deadly, and that small-ball lineup should definitely be something used more often to keep opposing teams on their toes.
What confuses me more than anything is that while the Shaq/Varejao frontcourt has some offensive issues and the Shaq/Hickson frontcourt has some serious defensive issues, a Shaq/LeBron frontcourt hasn't been tried at all this season, and I mean at all. I suppose the reasoning is that LeBron would be forced to expend way too much energy on the perimeter defensively as Shaq sags to the paint on pick-and-rolls (LeBron's never gotten minutes at the four alongside Z either), but with the Cavs supposedly looking for a "stretch 4" at the deadline to make life easier for Shaq, it's odd that they haven't at least tried using LeBron in that role.
Danny Bollinger/NBAE/Getty Images
There are nights when the Mavericks look deadly serious.
There are nights when the Mavericks look deadly serious.
KA: Little known fact: Of the 50 5-man units that have played together the most this season, two of the top three in overall efficiency belong to the Dallas Mavericks. Whether it's Jason Terry or J.J. Barea at the shooting guard, the Mavs' big names are absolutely crushing their opponents on both ends of the floor. Dallas is a Top 5 defensive squad and features one of the game's great shotmakers in Dirk Nowitzki. They also have tremendous flexibility to match up with opponents on either end. They can play old-school or new-school. Want to tease the Mavs with small ball? That's fine, because they're perfectly good going with three guards and moving Shawn Marion and Nowitzki into the frontcourt. Want to try to outmuscle them? Erick Dampier may have an outsized contract, but he's also one of the better basket protectors and garbage collectors in the league. Opponents shoot a measly 57.4 percent at the rim against the Mavs -- only Boston, Cleveland and San Antonio are better.
More than anything, the Mavs strike me as a team composed of professionals. These are serious basketball players led by a serious coach. Is it possible that a squad with so many thirtysomethings breaks down physically over the course of an 82-game season? Perhaps. But where some see brittleness, I see experience. In fact, I see shades of the best San Antonio Spurs squads. I see a team that truly understands its collective talents and limitations and puts a premium on execution.
Can they compete with the Lakers in late May? I'm not sure anyone in the Western Conference can, but Dallas -- with its length, smarts, and perimeter prowess -- might just be the toughest competition the Lakers encounter.
JK: Dallas has a ton of talent, Dirk is right up there with the best players in the league, and the team defends. My caveat would be that they're thinner than people think, and much more dependent on Dirk. As of December 26th, Dallas was +11.6 points per 100 possessions with Dirk on the floor and a stunning -16.5 points per 100 with Dirk on the bench. As bad as LeBron and Kobe's benches are, their teams are only -8 when they sit, to offer some perspective.
A lot of that has to do with Drew Gooden; Gooden's plus-minus is -23.1, and as someone who's watched a good deal of Gooden in his life, I can tell you that's not random noise. Drew Gooden is the anti-Battier. I'm also not a huge J.J. Barea fan. He's fun to watch and works fairly well with Kidd offensively, but I believe you were the one who said he plays defense "like a man frantically searching for his car keys," and the plus-minus numbers support the theory that Barea's somewhat of a defensive liability. Dallas can play with anyone, especially when Dirk's on the floor, and if they do something to get a better backup for Dirk than Gooden and hide Barea's defense a little better (maybe play more Beaubois, who's gone through growing pains and will probably continue to do so, but has lockdown defensive potential), I'd call them a true force to be reckoned with in the West. If not, I'd say they have a solid puncher's chance of knocking the Lakers off their Western Conference throne.
How do we begin to make sense of adjusted plus-minus?
JK: Outside of the obvious conclusion, which is "no one stat or metric, no matter how advanced or intricate, is ever going to come close to saying everything about one player," I have two thoughts on adjusted plus-minus.
The first is that I get how the basic +/- you see in box scores and 82games.com's version of plus-minus work, but I still don't totally understand how advanced plus-minus works, and that's a problem. I mean, I get the theory, that it adjusts for having good or bad teammates or playing against good and bad opponents, but how exactly does it define "good" and "bad"? Is "good" based on the other guy's adjusted plus-minus, or is the value of others derived from something like Player Efficiency Rating? Aren't both approaches problematic? Right now, adjusted plus-minus is sort of "He's good. Trust me," which I have trouble swallowing as a fan and certainly can't use to convince friends or readers of a guy's value.
The second problem is one that will get fixed over time, which is that we still don't really know how to read plus-minus type stats yet. We know with a stat like field goal percentage that a shooting guard is going to have a lower field goal percentage than a center, but we also know that the guard is probably shooting more 3s, shooting his free throws better and taking tougher shots than the center. We know how to read that stat.
But because plus-minus is one number and so nebulous, we don't know which plus-minus numbers to take with a grain of salt and which ones not to. I'll bring up the semi-infamous Durant example here. Durant had terrible +/- ratings for his first two seasons, but has been incredible in year three. Was the Durant phenomenon ever even real, or did Durant actually improve this year in ways the stats didn't see? If we want plus-minus metrics to be as legitimate as the box score ones, we have to stress-test it like we have the conventional numbers that came before them.
KA: I'm drawn to adjusted plus-minus because I'm desperate to find any metric that will approximate a player's defensive value, something we just don't have the tools to do right now. I'm more faithful than I probably should be given the lack of stress tests you talk about. Your point is well-taken and I'd add that stats like these are only valuable to the extent that they're predictive. There will always be players who make colossal jumps or experience unusual crashes in productivity, but apart from outliers, a stat must be dependable enough to offer a clear -- if general -- estimation of what that player is worth in the past, present and likely future. I've begun to spend more time examining the adjusted plus-minus numbers of 5-man units rather than individuals, in part because it seems more practical.
I suspect we'll know a lot more in three to five years than we do now. The metric's practitioners (and the people who trust them) will have a better sense of where the numbers skews, what those number might miss and the kind of noise those numbers create. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the 2-year figures (and eventually 3-year, and 4-year). Any system that values Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant as the five best players in the NBA has to be on to something, right?
Thursday Bullets
December, 24, 2009
12/24/09
3:03
PM ET
- How do you manage only 64 points against Toronto? Detroit's effort last night was painfully familiar to Dan Feldman of PistonPowered. Instead of composing a fresh recap, all he had to do was dust off the one from the previous game against Charlotte: "A few small fixes, and last night’s works just fine."
- John Krolik of Cavs the Blog took some strong impressions away from watching Tyreke Evans last night. The Cavs couldn't find anyone the guard the Kings' rookie over the first three quarters. Then Cleveland remembered it has this very athletic, physically impressive, relatively young wing they can utilize in case of defensive emergency.
- The Kings were in position to win the game. The fact that they didn't wasn't a result of youthful inexperience, says Zach Harper of Cowbell Kingdom: "At a certain point, [the Kings] got caught up in trying to make Evans a star. If he beats LeBron one-on-one a couple of times, you might lead off SportsCenter and get every national blog linking to you for the fourth time in a week. You might convince people to keep coming to the games (great crowd at the game last night by the way). Take a lesson from what LeBron James did: find your teammates and make the smart play when the offense isn’t going your way."
- Wendell Maxey, writing for the Portland Sentinel, recounts a fun anecdote about how in 1986-87, then-rookie Nate McMillan earned the respect of his Portland teammates. The story involves Maurice Lucas, McMillan telling off a veteran and a Coke machine.
- Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns says that Phoenix lacks toughness. That's a general problem, of course, but particularly costly on the offensive glass: "For a team that thrives on playing with rhythm and speed, it is nearly impossible to win giving up 16 offensive rebounds. Not only is an offensive board and bucket a huge momentum-changer, it slows down the pace of the game, which is something the Suns obviously don’t want to do."
- It was a big win for the Thunder in Phoenix. Royce Young of Daily Thunder took note of a creative decision by Scott Brooks: "I found it interesting that Thabo [Sefolosha] guarded Steve Nash for most of the game. Maybe that’s because Nash likes to hide behind screeners and shoot or fall away and shoot and maybe Thabo’s length could bother him. Thabo didn’t have a point, but I thought he played Nash well, especially in the second half. After nine assists in the first half, Nash had just three in the second." That's another thing that Russell Westbrook gives you -- the ability to put your most physical perimeter defender, Sefolosha, on the ball at strategic moments. Because Westbrook is capable of cross-matching, Brooks has the luxury to experiment and switch things up defensively.
- The Clippers will have a decision to make with Marcus Camby who, at 35 years old, is having one of the most productive seasons on his career. Camby is on the final year of his current deal and the Clippers have Blake Griffin coming back at some point in late January. D.J. Foster debunks the idea that if you don't trade a player with an expiring contract before the deadline that you're "letting him walk for nothing." Cap relief is often far more valuable than whatever a team might acquire in return for such a deal.
- The Kamenetzky Brothers always deliver with their podcast. When the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Brian Windhorst is the featured guest, it's tremendous stuff.
- Clark Matthews of the Daily Thunder reviews some of Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti's greatest hits.
- According to Jeremy Schmidt of Bucksketball, the Wizards deployed an "attack Brandon Jennings" strategy to beat the Bucks at the Bradley Center Wednesday night. Jennings gambles too frequently, gets taken out of plays by strong screens, and bigger guards have been backing him down effectively. But rookie point guards almost always confront steep learning curves defensively, and Jennings will improve.
- For teams like the Trail Blazers in need of a big body, Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside runs down the list of front-court candidates the D-League has to offer. In the backcourt division, D-League Digest's Steve Weinman is a fan of four-year Memphis guard Antonio Anderson, who's playing for Rockets affiliate Rio Grande Valley. While we're on the topic of RGV's guard rotation, I still believe Garrett Temple will play meaningful minutes in the NBA at some point.
By Kevin Arnovitz
- The conversation between 3 Shades of Blue and Memphis Grizziles owner Michael Heisley continues. Heisley speaks about the trials of being a small-market team. Money quote: "Quite frankly free agents don't want to come to small markets. If I could give LeBron James $5 million more do you think he would come to Memphis?"
- Mike Kurylo of Knickerblogger says that three players in particular have fueled the Knicks' current winning streak -- and one of them is a guy named Larry Hughes.
- George Lakoff, bell hooks, Mikhail Bakhtin and Allen Iverson all in the same place.
- Does Dorell Wright have the tools to be a full-time point guard in the NBA? Ira Winderman is a little skeptical.
- Zach Lowe of Celtics Hub on Kevin Garnett's evolving offensive game: "[W]e’re beginning to see some evidence that Kevin Garnett is becoming a different kind of jump-shooter as he ages — specifically, one who takes more long jumpers and is more dependent on his teammates to get them off."
- The Magic, as Eddy Rivera explores, still aren't a great iso team.
- Upon meeting Darryl Dawkins at an event in the Lehigh Valley over the weekend, President Obama greeted the Sixers legend as "Chocolate Thunder!" (Hat Tip: Baller-in-Chief)
- John Krolik of Cavs the Blog on Brandon Jennings: "I won’t call go so far as to call Jennings’ style a 'throwback' to the earlier part of the decade, but his game looks a lot more like Steph Marbury’s, Allen Iverson’s, or a (better shooting) Steve Francis’ than it looks like Tony Parker’s, Derrick Rose’s, Rondo’s or Deron Williams’, who are always attacking straight angles and looking to get to the hole and finish."
- Taylor Griffin is headed to the D-League.
- It's not as if Chris Bosh's body of work this season is any secret, but Tom Liston at Raptors Republic closely examines just how insanely good Christopher Wesson Bosh has been over the first six weeks of the season.
- Five things to watch for when Allen Iverson takes the floor in Philadelphia this evening.
- Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company isn't afraid of the San Antonio Spurs.
By Henry Abbott
Last week, basketball insider Sonny Vaccaro explained why he feels defensive about Brandon Jennings, and told the story of how he came to be so involved in Jennings' life and decision to play professionally in Europe for a year before coming to the NBA.
Vaccaro has played a pivotal role in the careers of may top basketball players, from Kobe Bryant to O.J. Mayo. In this third and final installment of the conversation, Vaccaro discusses the future of basketball development. Will Vaccaro be helping many more high-schoolers skip the NCAA to go to Europe? He says European teams and American players have been expressing increasing interest. Or will Brandon Jennings be the example that encourages the NBA to abolish its ban of players straight from high school?
I noticed Brandon Jennings was on the cover of a Spanish basketball magazine recently. I know he was an Under Armour deal ... but is he a marketable personality in Europe?
Yeah, it's funny. I talked to a couple of people. He is, because they're now taking credit for the development of Brandon Jennings, and they should! Isn't that interesting, in a sense.
And I'll tell you something. When I went over there after the season, I talked to people all over Europe. In two particular situations, they're now asking me.
I think I was on trial.
Now it's like, is there anybody else? They all saw the faults of their own bias. They haven't played young kids at a high level in Europe. They punish you. To sit there and play the guy from Penn [Ibrahim Jaaber], who I'm sure is a very nice kid and heck of a player, was insane. They make you pay your dues. And here he was coming into the NBA and doing this.
So now they're coming to me and saying "if you're telling me they can play, I'll tell you he can play for our team."
Very interesting to hear you say that European teams are now more open than ever to your bringing them American high-schoolers. But what about American high-schoolers, are more of them interested in Europe since Brandon joined the NBA?
I can say this: I keep track of everybody that calls me. There are 11 now that have called me. Eight of them were brand new since Brandon. Two of them on the night of Brandon's 55-point game.
I don't think there'll be a lot of people doing it. Obviously, there's Jeremy [Tyler], who's struggling over there because he's not ready to do a lot of things. But he's growing and he did want to go. That's OK, too. He's young.
But what it's done is it has showed it can be done. It just shows you an alternative, Henry, and maybe it can get the rule changed. That would be the grand thing.
And maybe these people would do the right thing with the training and all that.
'Cause really you're talking about an individual, who really didn't want to go to college in the first place, and who is very very talented ... they should have the opportunity to do this! It always befuddled me, all these years, why they blame the kid when basically the NBA owner is the one writing the check to bring these kids to the NBA. These owners are doing it. ...
The problem with David Stern's system -- and I think David is the smartest, and you can quote me on this because I don't have to kiss anybody's ass -- everybody wants to play in the NBA. If you don't you can't ever reach your acclaim. You can't. But the whole point of this is everybody got caught up in [the brawl in] Detroit. And they never forgot Detroit. And then it became an age limit thing.
Well, Brandon was able to overcome it all. He singularly did it.
Let's go back to John Wall, Lance Stephenson and Renardo Sidney. These are the kids who could have gone to Europe -- who had the ability to be professional. They would have been drafted in last year's draft. They may have gotten cut, but they would have gotten drafted. All three had different situations occur during their freshman years in college. Wall had to pay back $800 to his friend who turned out to be an agent. Stephenson wondered if his professionalism had been violated by starring in some video. And Renardo's situation, whatever it is, to the harm of the kid, he still hasn't been allowed to play and we're going into December.
But that whole demeaning thing. ... What Derrick Rose is going through now with that stupid grade on a test he took or didn't take. It's two years after he went to Memphis! It dehumanizes these young people. The public is then told what: that you're a cheater or a liar or not educated.
What the hell do you need that for?
And that's what this system put on these kids.
Our system, academically, is not for everybody.
How many high-schoolers do you expect we'll see go to Europe?
Hopefully, we'll get rid of that rule and it won't matter. I can definitely tell you that there's interest. There's no question about it.
It just befuddles me. If the next collective bargaining agreement does not allow kids to come out, I will then say what I think will happen, which is you're going to get three, four, five a year then. It will happen then. If they say you can't do it. I'm getting up in years and I don't know how many times I can do this crap, but you know that I will be an advocate of getting them over there when they're sophomores. Move the whole families, do it differently, set it up where you can benefit by it.
Brandon Jennings has a chance to be the Spencer Haywood of his generation. To change the rules. Do you have a sense of how likely that is? Any chance they'll abolish the age restriction in collective bargaining?
I have a feeling, a Sonny Vaccaro feeling, that the age limit won't be a factor anymore. I think in collective bargaining, everyone will come to their senses, and allow this to happen.
I have more than just a feeling. I believe totally that something good will happen out of something negative, and we'll go on.
The only way you stop [high-schoolers going professional] is don't draft them. That'll stop it, quick.
But they can play. They're All-Stars.
Yes.
Once they see that these things can happen, that it didn't disrupt the flow of mankind, it'll be accepted. It's fine, there's nothing wrong with it.
The voices of dissent are needed. That's fine. You can't praise everybody for everything. That's good.
I agree that there are people who aren't capable of doing this or have delusions of grandeur. I agree a million percent. But the whole point is, the whole difference, the whole choice is that we're punishing our kids. The Americans. I'm me. I'm American. These are our kids. These are kids we know, and they're being singled out. Everywhere else kids their age can [play professionally].
I love Danilo Gallinari, I know his dad, I was there on draft night.
I saw you stand and clap when all the Knick fans were booing the pick.
Right!
To see him come to the NBA, while an American from Compton was not able to do it ... it just sickened me, and made my resolve stronger.
I don't understand. And I don't understand for the life of me this preoccupation with the NCAA, and the notion that they are the epitome of what you should aspire to be. And there's nothing wrong with it. But when I look at the news and I see coaches doing the most egregious things I have ever seen. They're supposed to be the mentors of young people. It makes me throw up. Their job should be doing the right thing for kids.
I just left Chicago. I just left there! There's a wonderful story about Ben Wilson, the kid who got murdered. He was the #1 player in America in 1984-85, he went to my camp, I got to know him not like I do the kids today, but I knew him. And he got murdered. The story, on the 25th anniversary of his death -- and I talked to him the day before he died -- the story was that nothing has changed academically, in grades or in gangs, in Chicago. Nothing!
That's the point I'm making. To assume, and then to put in print that everybody's qualified academically to go to some of these great universities that they're going to go to is a joke. It's a joke. If the kid doesn't qualify, or if he's put on hold with this clearinghouse s--- ... If he's done all that, who's the one who's put on display? Not the coach or the university that recruited him. Not the high school. Who put him in this position? Do you think kids don't want to be educated today? I mean come on. We weren't born ignorant. We grew to be ignorant.
Brandon Jennings wasn't some anonymous player from Alaska. He was a pretty good player! He was on display. And to hear the people who criticize him ... I don't want to hear about going to skills camp for two days. I don't want to hear about going to play for these great coaches. Don't tell me that's what he needs. Go practice for 12 months a year. Go do that.
Now that you've seen it up close, do you think the European model of basketball development (with players going professional at a young age and training year-round) is better than our university-based system?
I've got a much better understanding. I have my own intellectual understanding of the way they do things, and I believe them! Because there's no bull crap. ... There's no detour in your life. You either are going to be this example, this professional athlete, or you're not and you'll have to find ways to acclimate yourself to other parts of your life.
But it's no different from being a serious student of anything. Preparing yourself to be the best at whatever field they want to go into. So, they do it right.
It's painful. They go running in the mountains. It's much different than going to the island of Hawaii or whatever we do in America for training camp. It's certainly much different than the pitiful way we get kids ready with the twenty hours a week in the NCAA, but I don't even want to get into the college basketball thing.
But basically, I agree with the European model. They're proteges getting ready to be professionals.
This is the third in a series. Click to read all three posts in which Vaccaro discusses Brandon Jennings.
Last week, basketball insider Sonny Vaccaro explained why he feels defensive about Brandon Jennings, and told the story of how he came to be so involved in Jennings' life and decision to play professionally in Europe for a year before coming to the NBA.
Vaccaro has played a pivotal role in the careers of may top basketball players, from Kobe Bryant to O.J. Mayo. In this third and final installment of the conversation, Vaccaro discusses the future of basketball development. Will Vaccaro be helping many more high-schoolers skip the NCAA to go to Europe? He says European teams and American players have been expressing increasing interest. Or will Brandon Jennings be the example that encourages the NBA to abolish its ban of players straight from high school?
I noticed Brandon Jennings was on the cover of a Spanish basketball magazine recently. I know he was an Under Armour deal ... but is he a marketable personality in Europe?
Yeah, it's funny. I talked to a couple of people. He is, because they're now taking credit for the development of Brandon Jennings, and they should! Isn't that interesting, in a sense.
And I'll tell you something. When I went over there after the season, I talked to people all over Europe. In two particular situations, they're now asking me.
I think I was on trial.
Now it's like, is there anybody else? They all saw the faults of their own bias. They haven't played young kids at a high level in Europe. They punish you. To sit there and play the guy from Penn [Ibrahim Jaaber], who I'm sure is a very nice kid and heck of a player, was insane. They make you pay your dues. And here he was coming into the NBA and doing this.
So now they're coming to me and saying "if you're telling me they can play, I'll tell you he can play for our team."
Very interesting to hear you say that European teams are now more open than ever to your bringing them American high-schoolers. But what about American high-schoolers, are more of them interested in Europe since Brandon joined the NBA?
I can say this: I keep track of everybody that calls me. There are 11 now that have called me. Eight of them were brand new since Brandon. Two of them on the night of Brandon's 55-point game.
I don't think there'll be a lot of people doing it. Obviously, there's Jeremy [Tyler], who's struggling over there because he's not ready to do a lot of things. But he's growing and he did want to go. That's OK, too. He's young.
But what it's done is it has showed it can be done. It just shows you an alternative, Henry, and maybe it can get the rule changed. That would be the grand thing.
And maybe these people would do the right thing with the training and all that.
'Cause really you're talking about an individual, who really didn't want to go to college in the first place, and who is very very talented ... they should have the opportunity to do this! It always befuddled me, all these years, why they blame the kid when basically the NBA owner is the one writing the check to bring these kids to the NBA. These owners are doing it. ...
The problem with David Stern's system -- and I think David is the smartest, and you can quote me on this because I don't have to kiss anybody's ass -- everybody wants to play in the NBA. If you don't you can't ever reach your acclaim. You can't. But the whole point of this is everybody got caught up in [the brawl in] Detroit. And they never forgot Detroit. And then it became an age limit thing.
Well, Brandon was able to overcome it all. He singularly did it.
Let's go back to John Wall, Lance Stephenson and Renardo Sidney. These are the kids who could have gone to Europe -- who had the ability to be professional. They would have been drafted in last year's draft. They may have gotten cut, but they would have gotten drafted. All three had different situations occur during their freshman years in college. Wall had to pay back $800 to his friend who turned out to be an agent. Stephenson wondered if his professionalism had been violated by starring in some video. And Renardo's situation, whatever it is, to the harm of the kid, he still hasn't been allowed to play and we're going into December.
But that whole demeaning thing. ... What Derrick Rose is going through now with that stupid grade on a test he took or didn't take. It's two years after he went to Memphis! It dehumanizes these young people. The public is then told what: that you're a cheater or a liar or not educated.
What the hell do you need that for?
And that's what this system put on these kids.
Our system, academically, is not for everybody.
How many high-schoolers do you expect we'll see go to Europe?
Hopefully, we'll get rid of that rule and it won't matter. I can definitely tell you that there's interest. There's no question about it.
It just befuddles me. If the next collective bargaining agreement does not allow kids to come out, I will then say what I think will happen, which is you're going to get three, four, five a year then. It will happen then. If they say you can't do it. I'm getting up in years and I don't know how many times I can do this crap, but you know that I will be an advocate of getting them over there when they're sophomores. Move the whole families, do it differently, set it up where you can benefit by it.
Brandon Jennings has a chance to be the Spencer Haywood of his generation. To change the rules. Do you have a sense of how likely that is? Any chance they'll abolish the age restriction in collective bargaining?
I have a feeling, a Sonny Vaccaro feeling, that the age limit won't be a factor anymore. I think in collective bargaining, everyone will come to their senses, and allow this to happen.
I have more than just a feeling. I believe totally that something good will happen out of something negative, and we'll go on.
The only way you stop [high-schoolers going professional] is don't draft them. That'll stop it, quick.
But they can play. They're All-Stars.
Yes.
Once they see that these things can happen, that it didn't disrupt the flow of mankind, it'll be accepted. It's fine, there's nothing wrong with it.
The voices of dissent are needed. That's fine. You can't praise everybody for everything. That's good.
I agree that there are people who aren't capable of doing this or have delusions of grandeur. I agree a million percent. But the whole point is, the whole difference, the whole choice is that we're punishing our kids. The Americans. I'm me. I'm American. These are our kids. These are kids we know, and they're being singled out. Everywhere else kids their age can [play professionally].
I love Danilo Gallinari, I know his dad, I was there on draft night.
I saw you stand and clap when all the Knick fans were booing the pick.
Right!
To see him come to the NBA, while an American from Compton was not able to do it ... it just sickened me, and made my resolve stronger.
I don't understand. And I don't understand for the life of me this preoccupation with the NCAA, and the notion that they are the epitome of what you should aspire to be. And there's nothing wrong with it. But when I look at the news and I see coaches doing the most egregious things I have ever seen. They're supposed to be the mentors of young people. It makes me throw up. Their job should be doing the right thing for kids.
I just left Chicago. I just left there! There's a wonderful story about Ben Wilson, the kid who got murdered. He was the #1 player in America in 1984-85, he went to my camp, I got to know him not like I do the kids today, but I knew him. And he got murdered. The story, on the 25th anniversary of his death -- and I talked to him the day before he died -- the story was that nothing has changed academically, in grades or in gangs, in Chicago. Nothing!
That's the point I'm making. To assume, and then to put in print that everybody's qualified academically to go to some of these great universities that they're going to go to is a joke. It's a joke. If the kid doesn't qualify, or if he's put on hold with this clearinghouse s--- ... If he's done all that, who's the one who's put on display? Not the coach or the university that recruited him. Not the high school. Who put him in this position? Do you think kids don't want to be educated today? I mean come on. We weren't born ignorant. We grew to be ignorant.
Brandon Jennings wasn't some anonymous player from Alaska. He was a pretty good player! He was on display. And to hear the people who criticize him ... I don't want to hear about going to skills camp for two days. I don't want to hear about going to play for these great coaches. Don't tell me that's what he needs. Go practice for 12 months a year. Go do that.
Now that you've seen it up close, do you think the European model of basketball development (with players going professional at a young age and training year-round) is better than our university-based system?
I've got a much better understanding. I have my own intellectual understanding of the way they do things, and I believe them! Because there's no bull crap. ... There's no detour in your life. You either are going to be this example, this professional athlete, or you're not and you'll have to find ways to acclimate yourself to other parts of your life.
But it's no different from being a serious student of anything. Preparing yourself to be the best at whatever field they want to go into. So, they do it right.
It's painful. They go running in the mountains. It's much different than going to the island of Hawaii or whatever we do in America for training camp. It's certainly much different than the pitiful way we get kids ready with the twenty hours a week in the NCAA, but I don't even want to get into the college basketball thing.
But basically, I agree with the European model. They're proteges getting ready to be professionals.
This is the third in a series. Click to read all three posts in which Vaccaro discusses Brandon Jennings.
Sonny Vaccaro: Brandon Jennings broke the mold, part two
November, 20, 2009
11/20/09
10:07
AM ET
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images"There's no more questions about whether he can play basketball. All the great coaches, all the great commentators, and all the great universities had nothing to do with it." -- Vaccaro on JenningsJennings, says Vaccaro, has endured criticism -- and perhaps was drafted artificially low -- as punishment for playing his post-high school year playing professionally in Italy, instead of paying his dues to the powers that be in NCAA basketball.
The way people talked about Jennings leading up to the draft does suggest opinion-makers weren't at all sure what to make of the player who has been the shining star of the rookie class in the season's early going.
Vaccaro is a powerful basketball insider, who has played a pivotal role in the careers of may top basketball players, from Kobe Bryant to O.J. Mayo. In the second installment of the conversation, Vaccaro discusses getting to know a young Brandon Jennings, a fateful meeting in an Italian restaurant, and how Jennings came to the decision to skip college.
Do you have a favorite Brandon Jennings moment? When you thought he would be special?
Yeah! This is a true story. He was in eighth grade, going into ninth grade. We had one of my camps or something at Artesia High School. Near his house.
He was playing on this AAU team. The best one. Southern California All-Stars. They had great players. They were really good, and he was beating this team like 100-10. Just killing them.
And the end of the game, he threw a long pass, like over his head and behind his back to get somebody a dunk. I ran after him, I swear to god almighty, and he's like 13 or 14, and I ran after him and said: "Don't you ever do that. You're too good. Don't you ever show up the people you're playing against like that."
I gave him a Sonny speech. It was a Sonny moment.
I don't know why I did it.
But I saw that this kid had this thing about him. But I didn't ever want him to take it for granted, or to embarrass other players. It was a moment.
He didn't play at a lot of my camps. I quit the camps his senior year. He didn't play at the Roundball Classic because I didn't have a Roundball Classic his senior year. Those are the things that the kids usually went through all the process, O.J. [Mayo], Kevin [Garnett], Greg [Oden], Kobe [Bryant] ... they went from the camp to the Big-Time Tournament and all that.
The last time, his junior year his team beat Derrick Rose and Eric Gordon's team in the final of the Big-Time Tournament in one of the greatest summer league's game ever. I just talked to Reggie Rose -- Derrick's brother -- about it a couple of days ago. It was Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose and his Chicago team, against Pat Barrett's Southern California All-Stars team with Kevin Love, Daniel Hackett, Taylor King, Brandon Jennings, a sophomore Renardo Sidney. And they won by two points or something. Derrick and Eric were unbelievable. It was one of the greatest summer league games ever.
Then there was a year of separation. He went to Oak Hill. I didn't talk to him for a year.
Then that fateful call. I flew to New York as soon as I got that call. I wanted to be part of that.
Tell me about the fateful phone call.
I hadn't seen him in a year. That was the first thing. It wasn't like we were continuous, like everybody thinks it was. Then he said I'm in New York. [Vaccaro's wife] Pam and I were going to the draft the next day. So we flew and met Brandon in an Italian restaurant.
Just a coincidence that -- as you embark on sending him to Italy -- it was an Italian restaurant?
No. Most of my restaurants are Italian restaurants. [Laughs].
Turned out to be prophetic.
Yes it was.
You have to understand. That was right before the NBA draft. I kept saying: Do you know what you're doing? They're going to beat you up. And then when you say that I'm the guy who is handling all of this, you're going to get double indemnity here. The two of us ... a perfect couple for Vogue magazine, you know that!
I think I was a little proud that he asked me to do this. That he believed in me.
Had you shared with him in advance that going to Europe was something he ought to consider?
He heard it on the radio! I never spoke to him about it. He heard me say it on the "Loose Cannons" radio show I used to be a regular on. I had nothing to do with Brandon's decision.
I had been preaching "Go to Europe" since David Stern put that stupid rule in. And then he heard me and called me.
It's too simple for skeptics to believe.
I told him they were going to kill him.
We did everything, Pam and I. I did the shoe contract, I did everything. Duff [Agent Bill Duffy] came on in January.
Brandon, me, and Alice, and [Jenning's half-brother] Terrence, and my wife Pam, we walked this walk together. And that's what people don't understand. And to see this happen now. You have to be inhuman not to feel good for him.
I don't know what's going to happen. But one thing we can say, Henry Abbott, there's no more questions about whether he can play basketball. All the great coaches, all the great commentators, and all the great universities had nothing to do with it.
Why Italy, by the way?
Well, because we went to Las Vegas. Right after the draft, as you know, they all go to the Summer League out there. ... He started working out at the Tarkanian gym, and then I got these teams, reluctantly, to come watch. The Italians were really really interested. I met the general manager, and he worked him out personally. The first day, there was great interest. So the Israeli people come. The Russian people come to meet the next day at the games over in the gym, and they wanted to have workouts.
And by the afternoon of the second day, the Italian team had made, to paraphrase, an offer that we couldn't refuse.
I said Brandon, this is a lot of money. We can work out for the Israelis, the Russians, the Greeks. But s---, this is a lot. This is a lot! Let's go for it.
They were good. We met, and we got the deal done, and everything they said it was going to be, it was. They called the coach up, who was in Greece for the World Championships and all that sort of stuff, so they really wanted him. They recruited him, and we never really entertained much else. Two days after that I saw these other guys in the gym, and I said we made a deal.
Basically, the money was great. And Brandon had an affinity for going to Rome. If nothing else, Rome is an international city. A lot of Americans go through it. It has such history to it. The amenities were great. The living quarters, the car for the mom, the school for the brother -- they paid tuition, $25,000 for his brother to go to a diplomat's school -- all the things were good. And it was the highest level of European basketball. That was basically it.
And then we did the shoe deal. I talked to all the shoe companies, they Under Armour stepped up, and I think ... he got the fourth best shoe deal last year, I think the money he's earning this year, is more than what any rookie got this year. I don't know that the other people all got, but Brandon's is pretty damn good. And Under Armour stepped up.
We had the stars and the moon, everything lined up. They were a new company, and he's dynamic, and we go to Rome, and have a beautiful press conference overlooking the city.
I think the one thing that really helped a lot was the honest look that Bryant Gumbel did on Real Sports. I think Bryant helped defray the negative stuff that was coming. And I think Chris Broussard went over there, and Brandon was the leading scorer in the exhibition season. That was the irony here. Then his coach went brain dead on me [and played Jennings in a limited role].
That happens.
It all happened. But the public didn't know that. They just know he didn't go play for Lute Olson.
Moreso than Kobe and all those guys, he's demonized. Because he took the European route. In the eyes of a public, he was a failure. But in Brandon's eyes, he wasn't. He learned. And that's why, of all the kids, through all the things ... Obviously, my life has been blessed, and every one is special in their own way, but I think I feel better personally, my wife and I, about the outcome of Brandon Jennings to this point then all the other ones.
Because the other ones, the landmines weren't there. When Kobe went out of high school, when Kevin went out of high school, when they all went out of high school you accepted it. That was the rule.
This guy wouldn't accept what they told him he had to do.
This is the second in a series. Click to read all three posts in which Vaccaro discusses Brandon Jennings.
Brandon Jennings' Progress Report -- Media Relations Edition
November, 19, 2009
11/19/09
3:26
PM ET
While the rest of the basketball world was marveling over Brandon Jennings' on-court exploits during his 55-point explosion last weekend and poring over highlight reels of the game, Steve Shenbaum's evaluation consisted not of Jennings' incredible game, but of the rookie's post-game interviews with the media. Sure, Shenbaum was as dazzled by Jennings' performance as the next fan, but as a consultant who teaches athletes across the sports landscape on how to interact with the press, he was looking to see how his star client at GameOn -- Shenbaum's communications company -- handled himself in the moments after the final buzzer sounded.
Back in July, we caught up with both Shenbaum and Jennings just as the Bucks' point guard was starting his work with Shenbaum. Four months later, how is Jennings progressing as a communicator.
Here is Shenbaum’s review of Brandon Jennings' interviews after his Double Nickel, with the two primary postgame appearances (the first with Fox Sports North, which occurred just after the game ended; the second with the studio team at NBA TV a few minutes later):
Interview with Fox Sports North
Back in July, we caught up with both Shenbaum and Jennings just as the Bucks' point guard was starting his work with Shenbaum. Four months later, how is Jennings progressing as a communicator.
Here is Shenbaum’s review of Brandon Jennings' interviews after his Double Nickel, with the two primary postgame appearances (the first with Fox Sports North, which occurred just after the game ended; the second with the studio team at NBA TV a few minutes later):
Interview with Fox Sports North
- Obviously, Brandon was just leaving the court and was both tired and excited. These can be some of the more difficult interviews because the emotion of the game and the excitement, etc. is still present. I thought he did a great job. Brandon is a kid at heart and this interview allowed the viewer to see the “kid” side of Brandon.
- I’d like him to find a new cliché besides “it’s all paying off right now!” He used it back to back! Perhaps google “post game clichés” before a big game!
- Now that he has accomplished something amazing, it’s important for Brandon to show even more humility because he does not need to brag. He can let his game speak for itself.
- On a personal note, I would like to mention that those who claimed he would be a bust in the NBA might want to rethink that assessment, and it would be nice for them to step up and give him some credit!
- The first thing I noticed was how relaxed Brandon seemed to be. Obviously, he was in a good mood, which helps in any interview. I want him to show more excitement in his facial reactions, so the viewer feels his joy before he even speaks.
- Brandon can sometimes talk quickly, similar to his game on the court. At times, this will help him seem dynamic, but there are times when he may fall victim to some communications "speed wobbles." He has really worked on slowing down. When he slows down, he can also really think about what he wants to say and it’s also more interesting for the viewer because there is variation in his speed and delivery.
- He did a nice job describing what’s going on in the game and his practice/pre-game routine. He was clear and painted a nice picture.
- I was very pleased with Brandon’s smile. In the past, sometimes Brandon felt it was not “cool” to be excited. He would say bold statements with confidence but he would not add any facial affectation or he would add a smile when it wasn't necessary. This would sometimes be conveyed as arrogant instead of charming. I felt he was much more charming in this interview...and he now has some NBA statistics to back up his statements.
- He did a nice job allowing the audience to feel what he is feeling. He needs to find even more place to share his emotions so the viewer can experience the joy with him. It can be non verbal or verbal.
- I was pleased with the moment towards the end (3:44) where he really has fun with Eric Snow. He lightens up and seems to forget the camera is there but you can tell he is joking, unlike the comments he made prior to the draft about Ricky Rubio. Brandon does not disrespect Ricky. He thinks Ricky is a good basketball player, but Brandon is confident and he likes to have fun. If you put that combination together without facial reactions or any NBA experience, it can cause some issues. 55 points changes the entire perception of one’s words, doesn’t it?
- He needs to find moments to bring that relaxed style in the Basketball questions as well.
- He needs to be careful when the interviewer is asking the question. He tends to play with his mouth a bit and chew on lip. It’s not the worst thing but it distracts the viewer a bit.
Shenbaum concludes: In general, Brandon is much more relaxed as a communicator. But more importantly, he now has some credential to back up his "swagger." It's not just that he has changed, the viewer's perception of him has changed because he's not all talk. Action not only speak louder than words. Positive actions, both on and off the court, help support your words and make them more palatable.
Posted by Kevin Arnovitz
The Las Vegas Summer League is a lot like the Sundance Film Festival of the NBA. Whereas the pageantry of most NBA games has gotten out of control, Summer League games are small indie productions. The event certainly has its share of fanfare, but it also allows participants to brush shoulders with some notables they wouldn't ordinarily have access to during the grind of the NBA season. Just as festival-goers at Sundance might find themselves sitting next to an A-List movie star in a cozy bar, it's not unusual for Summer League attendees to sit down in the stands at Cox Pavilion, only to look over and see a high-profile general manager in cargo shorts and flip-flops.
Since team executives, agents, player development personnel, and veterans who've come to watch their younger teammates are all convened in one place for 10 days, Summer League is one big, casual schmoozefest, and a great place to take inventory of the state of the NBA.
What were all those big names talking about in Las Vegas this year? Here were eight hot topics:
A Lot of Competent Players, but Only One Sure-Fire All-Star
Since early spring, the 2009 talent pool has been regarded as a one-man draft. By and large, NBA folks left Las Vegas with that consensus intact. Blake Griffin was the story of Summer League. Though he wasn't able to replicate his explosive 27-point debut, Griffin's 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game stood out. There were other players who matched his statistical output, but few generated the enthusiasm Griffin did among those who got a look at the full roster of rookies. "It's not only his work ethic and competitiveness," said one scout. "It's the balance, athleticism, body, and control. The stuff he can't do yet? It'll happen in no time." When asked how many certain All-Stars would materialize from the class of 2009, interviewees set the over-under barely above one, with Tyreke Evans earning a few votes. Despite the low expectations for stardom, many observers were pleasantly surprised by the depth of solid, if unexceptional, players. The prevailing opinion in Vegas was that the 2009 group is a far cry from the notoriously fruitless class of 2000. Though there was little unanimity, James Harden, Austin Daye, Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, DeJuan Blair, and Earl Clark were all mentioned as possible contributors, or "third options" as one assistant general manager put it. But conversations about potential greatness consistently and almost exclusively returned to Griffin.
Anthony Randolph is Ridiculous
Summer League play always warrants a disclaimer, because the level of competition falls way short of what guys will confront in an NBA game, but the Warriors' 20-year-old forward seemed almost too advanced for Summer League play. Normally jaded execs and crusty sportswriters alike had their jaws agape watching Randolph command the game when he was out on the floor. Randolph came into the league as a candy dish of disparate talents, but he's graduated from curiosity to crackerjack. He has a band of admirers who gush over his range of talents, and that group got a lot bigger in Las Vegas, as his skill set was on full display. Randolph saw the court, ran the floor, passed the ball, blocked shots, got to the line, and drained mid-range jumpers as well as anyone in Summer League. In his four games, he averaged a Summer League-high 26.8 points per game on 60.9 percent shooting from the floor. He also got to the line 39 times and blocked 12 shots. But it was about more than the stats for Randolph. There's a moment when a player's talents unify into a single, coherent package. Judging from Randolph's performance, that moment has arrived.
The Global Economic Crisis
There's an area behind the near basket at Cox Pavilion where European coaches, general managers, and scouts sit and talk shop during the games. The NBA presents Summer League as a showcase of their future stars, but the real business in Las Vegas is being conducted by these guys, along with the agents and bridge-builders who are trying to get jobs overseas for the less recognizable names on Summer League rosters. Although there wasn't a visible black cloud hanging over this corner of the gym, the anxiety was palpable. They had a lot to be stressed about. Basketball clubs the world over are suffering, but none more than those in Europe. After years of escalating salaries and profits, the market has collapsed. "I've told all my European guys to expect, on average, salaries to go down between 30 and 40 percent," one European agent said. "It's definitely a buyer's market." This dynamic puts pressure on everyone -- the players who are facing a pay cut (even if they're coming off banner seasons), the agents who are terrified to communicate this to their clients out of fear of getting fired, and the teams who still haven't filled out their rosters because they're short on cash. The result is an impasse with neither players nor clubs budging, and a few teams on the verge of economic collapse.
Salary Cap Troubles & the NBA Financial Situation
The international game is in meltdown mode, while the NBA game is suffering from its own set of monetary issues. In Sections 104 and 115, where most of the NBA execs and team personnel sit, the dominant conversation of the week was about the financial pinch NBA franchises are feeling. In his press conference here in Vegas, NBA Commissioner David Stern said that fewer than half of NBA franchises made money last season. Ticket sales, sponsorships, and television contracts are all down. With the salary cap and luxury tax level dropping -- and scheduled to do so for the foreseeable future -- teams are having to calibrate their spreadsheets. This affects everyone: owners, general managers who are under pressure to build legitimate NBA rosters, free agents sitting on the sidelines, their agents, and also the journeymen and undrafted rookies trying to earn a spot on an NBA roster. To save money, a team that would normally carry 15 guys might trim that number down to 13 -- meaning fewer jobs. And players who would've inked rich, multi-year deals are finding that, with some exceptions, they have fewer suitors, with thinner wallets.
The Point Guard Class
Several point guards who came to Las Vegas made strong impressions. Jonny Flynn, despite all the turmoil surrounding Ricky Rubio, stood out. Though many in Vegas questioned the wisdom of playing Tyreke Evans at point guard long-term, few doubted that his strength, size, and capacity to get to the rim would make him a scoring machine. Observers had reserved praise for Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry, the former for his unrefined shot, the latter for looking more like a gunner than a floor general. Some of the mid-first-rounders earned a lot of praise. Dallas' Roddy Beaubois led Vegas point guards in oohs and aahs, zipping through the lane in traffic and filling it up from beyond the arc. Of all the point guards in Las Vegas last week, Darren Collison was among the most polished before going down with an ankle injury. After starting Summer League 1-for-15 from the field, Ty Lawson bounced back to turn in three dominant performances, averaging 23.7 points over that span. Lawson is the kind of point guard who needs to be surrounded by scorers to excel. He'll have that in Denver.
LO, AI, Booz, and the Blazer
s
As much as NBA fans love speculation about trades and free agency, nobody appreciates the rumor mill quite like the NBA chattering class. Talk of the disintegration of Lamar Odom's negotiations with the Lakers provided plenty of fodder for late-night dinners. The same was true of the l'affaire Allen Iverson, where Carlos Boozer may land, and what the Blazers will do with the money they threw at Paul Millsap. The Odom situation was far and away the most intriguing to the insiders. Odom and the Lakers are in the second act of a romantic comedy: They need each other. The Lakers would slip measurably without Odom, and Odom needs the Lakers to solidify his place among the Lakers greats -- or at least the Lakers very, very goods. The Iverson and Boozer matters exemplify the financial issues mentioned above. So far as Portland, few teams run as much informational interference, and even some of the wiliest insiders were stumped about what the Trail Blazers might do.
The Death of the Back-to-the-Basket Game
"Name one guy here who can hit a jump hook over their left shoulder," an NBA assistant general manager asked. "I can't think of one." Whether it's the trickle-down effect of the European game, the rule changes implemented by the league a few years ago, or college teams appropriating Mike D'Antoni-style basketball, the vast majority of the young bigs who were in Las Vegas are face-up players who work either along the perimeter or out of the pinch post: Anthony Randolph, Earl Clark, James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Dante Cunningham, DaJuan Summers, Austin Daye, and even Blake Griffin. Is this a momentary trend, or will the pendulum eventually swing back? "If I were a big man about to enter college, I would develop that back-to-the-basket game," the executive said. The implication: At some point, those skills will be at a premium, and that kid will be impossible to defend. Forward-looking teams are all about buying low and, right now, traditional post players are undervalued because they don't conform to the current climate of the NBA game.
Dysfunctional Organizational Structures Breed Dysfunctional Franchises
What is going on with Minnesota? That was a popular topic of conversation among senior NBA people in Las Vegas. The team still has no coach. Though it had one of the Summer League's most prolific players in Flynn, there's no telling if the system he played in over the 10 days will be the one installed by a new coach -- whoever that might be. This makes the Summer League evaluation process a lot less useful. Who's in charge? CEO Rob Moor? General manager David Kahn? Will the new coach be fully empowered to do his job? Critics also looked at Memphis. How did the Grizzlies end up with Hasheem Thabeet? Because owner Michael Heisley reportedly made the call. The Clippers, too, generated buzz this week with the Iverson speculation. While owner Donald Sterling wants to make a splash with Iverson, Clippers management would like to target Ramon Sessions. These historically beleaguered franchises all have one thing in common: There's no clear hierarchy that allows basketball people to make basketball decisions. The best franchises have well-defined roles that emanate from the top. Owners allow their senior executives to do their job. Those executives give their head coaches full reign, and so forth. Look no further than the San Antonio Spurs.
The Las Vegas Summer League is a lot like the Sundance Film Festival of the NBA. Whereas the pageantry of most NBA games has gotten out of control, Summer League games are small indie productions. The event certainly has its share of fanfare, but it also allows participants to brush shoulders with some notables they wouldn't ordinarily have access to during the grind of the NBA season. Just as festival-goers at Sundance might find themselves sitting next to an A-List movie star in a cozy bar, it's not unusual for Summer League attendees to sit down in the stands at Cox Pavilion, only to look over and see a high-profile general manager in cargo shorts and flip-flops.
Since team executives, agents, player development personnel, and veterans who've come to watch their younger teammates are all convened in one place for 10 days, Summer League is one big, casual schmoozefest, and a great place to take inventory of the state of the NBA.
What were all those big names talking about in Las Vegas this year? Here were eight hot topics:
A Lot of Competent Players, but Only One Sure-Fire All-Star
Since early spring, the 2009 talent pool has been regarded as a one-man draft. By and large, NBA folks left Las Vegas with that consensus intact. Blake Griffin was the story of Summer League. Though he wasn't able to replicate his explosive 27-point debut, Griffin's 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game stood out. There were other players who matched his statistical output, but few generated the enthusiasm Griffin did among those who got a look at the full roster of rookies. "It's not only his work ethic and competitiveness," said one scout. "It's the balance, athleticism, body, and control. The stuff he can't do yet? It'll happen in no time." When asked how many certain All-Stars would materialize from the class of 2009, interviewees set the over-under barely above one, with Tyreke Evans earning a few votes. Despite the low expectations for stardom, many observers were pleasantly surprised by the depth of solid, if unexceptional, players. The prevailing opinion in Vegas was that the 2009 group is a far cry from the notoriously fruitless class of 2000. Though there was little unanimity, James Harden, Austin Daye, Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, DeJuan Blair, and Earl Clark were all mentioned as possible contributors, or "third options" as one assistant general manager put it. But conversations about potential greatness consistently and almost exclusively returned to Griffin.
Anthony Randolph: All grown up?
(Photo by Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) |
Summer League play always warrants a disclaimer, because the level of competition falls way short of what guys will confront in an NBA game, but the Warriors' 20-year-old forward seemed almost too advanced for Summer League play. Normally jaded execs and crusty sportswriters alike had their jaws agape watching Randolph command the game when he was out on the floor. Randolph came into the league as a candy dish of disparate talents, but he's graduated from curiosity to crackerjack. He has a band of admirers who gush over his range of talents, and that group got a lot bigger in Las Vegas, as his skill set was on full display. Randolph saw the court, ran the floor, passed the ball, blocked shots, got to the line, and drained mid-range jumpers as well as anyone in Summer League. In his four games, he averaged a Summer League-high 26.8 points per game on 60.9 percent shooting from the floor. He also got to the line 39 times and blocked 12 shots. But it was about more than the stats for Randolph. There's a moment when a player's talents unify into a single, coherent package. Judging from Randolph's performance, that moment has arrived.
The Global Economic Crisis
There's an area behind the near basket at Cox Pavilion where European coaches, general managers, and scouts sit and talk shop during the games. The NBA presents Summer League as a showcase of their future stars, but the real business in Las Vegas is being conducted by these guys, along with the agents and bridge-builders who are trying to get jobs overseas for the less recognizable names on Summer League rosters. Although there wasn't a visible black cloud hanging over this corner of the gym, the anxiety was palpable. They had a lot to be stressed about. Basketball clubs the world over are suffering, but none more than those in Europe. After years of escalating salaries and profits, the market has collapsed. "I've told all my European guys to expect, on average, salaries to go down between 30 and 40 percent," one European agent said. "It's definitely a buyer's market." This dynamic puts pressure on everyone -- the players who are facing a pay cut (even if they're coming off banner seasons), the agents who are terrified to communicate this to their clients out of fear of getting fired, and the teams who still haven't filled out their rosters because they're short on cash. The result is an impasse with neither players nor clubs budging, and a few teams on the verge of economic collapse.
Salary Cap Troubles & the NBA Financial Situation
The international game is in meltdown mode, while the NBA game is suffering from its own set of monetary issues. In Sections 104 and 115, where most of the NBA execs and team personnel sit, the dominant conversation of the week was about the financial pinch NBA franchises are feeling. In his press conference here in Vegas, NBA Commissioner David Stern said that fewer than half of NBA franchises made money last season. Ticket sales, sponsorships, and television contracts are all down. With the salary cap and luxury tax level dropping -- and scheduled to do so for the foreseeable future -- teams are having to calibrate their spreadsheets. This affects everyone: owners, general managers who are under pressure to build legitimate NBA rosters, free agents sitting on the sidelines, their agents, and also the journeymen and undrafted rookies trying to earn a spot on an NBA roster. To save money, a team that would normally carry 15 guys might trim that number down to 13 -- meaning fewer jobs. And players who would've inked rich, multi-year deals are finding that, with some exceptions, they have fewer suitors, with thinner wallets.
The Point Guard Class
Several point guards who came to Las Vegas made strong impressions. Jonny Flynn, despite all the turmoil surrounding Ricky Rubio, stood out. Though many in Vegas questioned the wisdom of playing Tyreke Evans at point guard long-term, few doubted that his strength, size, and capacity to get to the rim would make him a scoring machine. Observers had reserved praise for Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry, the former for his unrefined shot, the latter for looking more like a gunner than a floor general. Some of the mid-first-rounders earned a lot of praise. Dallas' Roddy Beaubois led Vegas point guards in oohs and aahs, zipping through the lane in traffic and filling it up from beyond the arc. Of all the point guards in Las Vegas last week, Darren Collison was among the most polished before going down with an ankle injury. After starting Summer League 1-for-15 from the field, Ty Lawson bounced back to turn in three dominant performances, averaging 23.7 points over that span. Lawson is the kind of point guard who needs to be surrounded by scorers to excel. He'll have that in Denver.
LO, AI, Booz, and the Blazer
s
As much as NBA fans love speculation about trades and free agency, nobody appreciates the rumor mill quite like the NBA chattering class. Talk of the disintegration of Lamar Odom's negotiations with the Lakers provided plenty of fodder for late-night dinners. The same was true of the l'affaire Allen Iverson, where Carlos Boozer may land, and what the Blazers will do with the money they threw at Paul Millsap. The Odom situation was far and away the most intriguing to the insiders. Odom and the Lakers are in the second act of a romantic comedy: They need each other. The Lakers would slip measurably without Odom, and Odom needs the Lakers to solidify his place among the Lakers greats -- or at least the Lakers very, very goods. The Iverson and Boozer matters exemplify the financial issues mentioned above. So far as Portland, few teams run as much informational interference, and even some of the wiliest insiders were stumped about what the Trail Blazers might do.
The Death of the Back-to-the-Basket Game
"Name one guy here who can hit a jump hook over their left shoulder," an NBA assistant general manager asked. "I can't think of one." Whether it's the trickle-down effect of the European game, the rule changes implemented by the league a few years ago, or college teams appropriating Mike D'Antoni-style basketball, the vast majority of the young bigs who were in Las Vegas are face-up players who work either along the perimeter or out of the pinch post: Anthony Randolph, Earl Clark, James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Dante Cunningham, DaJuan Summers, Austin Daye, and even Blake Griffin. Is this a momentary trend, or will the pendulum eventually swing back? "If I were a big man about to enter college, I would develop that back-to-the-basket game," the executive said. The implication: At some point, those skills will be at a premium, and that kid will be impossible to defend. Forward-looking teams are all about buying low and, right now, traditional post players are undervalued because they don't conform to the current climate of the NBA game.
Dysfunctional Organizational Structures Breed Dysfunctional Franchises
What is going on with Minnesota? That was a popular topic of conversation among senior NBA people in Las Vegas. The team still has no coach. Though it had one of the Summer League's most prolific players in Flynn, there's no telling if the system he played in over the 10 days will be the one installed by a new coach -- whoever that might be. This makes the Summer League evaluation process a lot less useful. Who's in charge? CEO Rob Moor? General manager David Kahn? Will the new coach be fully empowered to do his job? Critics also looked at Memphis. How did the Grizzlies end up with Hasheem Thabeet? Because owner Michael Heisley reportedly made the call. The Clippers, too, generated buzz this week with the Iverson speculation. While owner Donald Sterling wants to make a splash with Iverson, Clippers management would like to target Ramon Sessions. These historically beleaguered franchises all have one thing in common: There's no clear hierarchy that allows basketball people to make basketball decisions. The best franchises have well-defined roles that emanate from the top. Owners allow their senior executives to do their job. Those executives give their head coaches full reign, and so forth. Look no further than the San Antonio Spurs.

Anthony Randolph: All grown up?

