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As David Stern once said, every team is one player away ... Shaquille O’Neal.

But for most unfortunate teams, the enduring question is how to compete for championships without that type of league-altering talent. Without one, the goal is to get into position to acquire a franchise cornerstone, but how does that happen? And if it does, when is the right time to make the big splash?

On the “Franchises in Transition” panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, decision-makers from different sports, in charge of organizations at different points on the development spectrum, shed light on their processes and the challenges they face.

Conference organizer Daryl Morey provided the NBA general manager’s perspective, but his fellow panelists helped to underscore both the fruits of and the commitment to forming a plan and sticking to it.

Paraag Marathe (coming off of an unlikely division championship in his first season as COO of the San Francisco 49ers), George Postolos (entering his first season as President and CEO of the rebuilding Houston Astros), Drew Carey (minority owner of the MLS Seattle Sounders), and Rita Benson LeBlanc (owner and executive VP of the New Orleans Saints) apply these values differently in the contexts of the economic models of their respective leagues, but many of their messages were consistent throughout.

They all preached building through the draft and trades, rather than spending big money on the open market. Each sport is different -- the Astros, for example, could outspend other teams and sign every All-Star free agent on the market if their owner so chose and the All-Stars so agreed -- but the consensus among this group was that the most sustainable way to build a team into a contender is to invest in young talent.

And that investment, which Marathe compared to shopping wholesale, pales in comparison to the cost of competing with every other team for premium free agent talent, during which you are often forced to pay retail prices.

Morey referred to “The Winner’s Curse,” that almost every time you sign a fee agent, it means you paid more than anyone else was offering. Short of true superstars, that’s often a dangerous proposition. In the NBA in particular -- with the forces of a strict salary cap, maximum contracts and built-in market disadvantages -- simply offering maximum contracts to the most talented players is often not enough.

Morey inherited two such stars (Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, both of whom he called top-10 players), but has been charged with building the Rockets back into a contender since Yao retired and a hobbled McGrady moved on.

In an effort to “shift the odds in (his) favor,” Morey has attempted to do so simply by bringing in high-quality players. The idea is that by doing so, he will have what it takes to acquire another cornerstone should one become available. This approach has worked with players such as Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola, Chandler Parsons, Aaron Brooks and Goran Dragic.

That his team has been competitive every year has been both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, the fan base can count on a consistent brand of play that generally has the team in playoff contention. However, in a sport where superstars are most often taken in the first couple of picks in the draft, the Rockets are a great example of the downside of patiently building a team -- they aren’t bad enough to give themselves much of a chance at winning the lottery.

As every other panelist alluded to, this component of fielding a competitive team with which fans can connect is vital, at least to some degree. Carey, whose Seattle Sounders have no television contract and depend exclusively on their relationship with fans for revenue, has helped to implement radical initiatives such as a fan council to vote on the GM’s job every four years.

Benson believes strongly that the Saints commitment to the city of New Orleans went hand in hand with creating the right atmosphere to attract and foster the success of Drew Brees, but she also acknowledged the importance of offering the quarterback more money than the Dolphins were offering.

Morey believes that interacting with fans is essential, and that it’s the general manager’s job to sell them on the organization’s plan. He has done that in Houston, but he remains short of his ultimate goal of building a winner.

The biggest challenge for clubs is to honestly assess where they fall on the spectrum. Polostos points out that a lot of teams think and behave like they are one or two players away, but as Morey said, analytics make it hard to argue you are that close when you aren’t.

He believes that only when you are one piece away from title contention do you “overpay” for that missing piece, and he is ready to make his big move. He tried once as a part of the failed first Chris Paul trade, and with the trade deadline less than two weeks away, you can bet that he’ll be busy working to consolidate the assets he’s acquired and cultivated into the star for whom he has so meticulously worked.

Shaquille O’Neal is no longer the final piece for an NBA team, but for a team in Houston’s situation, the player they need might be out there. If they stick to the plan, it’s just a trade away.

There might not be a player in the league with a more confounding game than Kevin Martin. Take a look at the odd, left-leaning release on his jumper and you can imagine a nation of high school basketball coaches cringing. Martin's field-goal percentage and defensive game have never been all that impressive on the surface. But once you get past traditional measures -- both aesthetic and statistical -- you'll find a uniquely efficient perimeter player who thrives in systems that take advantage of those gifts.

Rick Adelman's read-and-react offense in Houston is one such system. Although Martin is a capable one-on-one player, he's always been most effective running off screens, cutting, curling or fading to the arc when the defense sags. Martin harbors an appreciation for his days in Sacramento, where he went from an obscure late first-rounder out of Western Carolina to the first option in the offense. But he's thrilled to be back with his first NBA coach, whom Martin credits with helping him become that marquee player.

We caught up by phone with Martin in Houston last week, and talked about the change in culture he's experienced since the trade that sent him from Sacramento to Houston, the limitations of his game and the influence of Brad Miller:

So what's your summer day like?
I decided to get a place in Tampa so I could do some extensive training.

What are you working on in specific?
The basics. Getting my form back because I had surgery on my left wrist last year, so we wanted to get my 3-point shot back. There were a couple of minor mechanical things. Also, defenses load up on me, so I'm working on a lot of counter-moves for when the defense stops that first move.

When you're not in the gym, what do you do in your down time? You a beach guy?
I'm more of a city guy. I like to roam around, maybe check out a restaurant. I also like playing with my electronics -- like the new iPad.

So you're a proud member of the Apple cult?
Yeah!

Sacramento to Houston -- the perception is that's a huge cultural move for you. "Culture" is a term that sportswriters -- and front office people when they're talking to sportswriters -- throw around a lot, but does "team culture" really exist from a player's standpoint?
There definitely is such a thing as team culture. It starts with the organization, what kind of veteran players they have. Here in Houston, Shane [Battier] and Yao [Ming] are the veterans. They set the tone for us on how to be professionals. They've been around the community a lot. They set a big example for young fellas and are just two great leaders with what they do.

So if someone were to drop you in a random locker room of some team you didn't know, you could totally tell whether it was a winning or a losing locker room?
Unfortunately, yes. I've been on both sides of it. We're all paid to play this sport we love. If you're on a team like that as a team leader, you wish it didn't happen and you try to minimize it, but you can only control so much. It's up to the players to be professional about it. But you can definitely tell the difference.

How do they do things differently in Houston?
First, it's a veteran ball club with guys who just want to win. We all made names for ourselves in the league and the only legacy we're trying to leave now is winning. We can all put up nice numbers and things like that. You have to give credit to [general manager] Daryl [Morey] for bringing in those kind of people -- players with a lot of class and who are motivated. Of all the guys on our roster, there's really only one player who came into the league with big expectations, and that's Yao. The rest of us -- we've been the hard workers. I was like the 15th player on the roster my rookie year and had to work my way up. Then I was the No. 1 player for three years. This isn't to disrespect guys, but it's not about hype in Houston. These are guys who have worked their way up the ladder. I'm definitely happy to be in an organization like this. You know what you need to do and you just go out there and get it done. You don't need anyone on your throat all the time.

With Trevor Ariza on the move, what does the situation look like at the small forward on the court for the Rockets?
It shows how much faith Daryl has put in our other 3s -- in Shane and Chase [Budinger]. With the starting lineup we have now, Shane is the defensive stopper, and that helps us a lot there. Those guys will have to pick up Trevor's production on both ends of the court. I think we have a great system that allows other guys to do that.

How do you rate yourself as a defensive player?
Great question. I've never had anyone ask me that. I get judged a lot on it. I try to work hard, but the last three years I was a guy who had to put up 25 points a game just to not lose by 10. But my first two years under Rick Adelman, that's how I stayed on the court. It was because of defense. And I could because I had four offensive players around me. I know I have to get back to that, but I also think Houston is a better place to allow me to get back to that because I won't have to be the No. 1 option every night. Now I can do other things on the court.

So it's true that guys conserve energy on the defensive end because so much is asked of them offensively? That means their defense is less intense.
For some players that's true. Everyone has their roles.

Stat-heads love you because your true shooting percentage -- which takes into account 3-pointers and free throws -- is always impressive. You have this knack for drawing contact and getting to the line, or just draining the 3. But one thing I've never completely understood is how a player like you makes decisions. When you have the ball in your hands out on the perimeter, are you looking to either shoot or draw contact? I'm either going to get a clean shot or I'm drawing a foul? Are you looking to do both? How do you decide in the moment?
There are always different scouting reports on how to guard me. Guys know my first step is so quick so they might back up off me. Right there, I'm just going to take the open shot because I'd rather do that then try to go in there against all those big guys and get hammered on the floor. Then other nights, guys are like, "He's such a great shooter," and they try to get up on me. That's when I use my quickness. Once I get by you, I just know the rules -- you can't bump a guy off his path. If I'm going to the hole, and I've gotten past you, you can't get back in my path. That's how I get a lot of those calls. It's tricky and you have to have a lot of moves in your arsenal and trust your game. As the No. 1 guy the last three years, I've gotten knowledgeable about knowing how the defense plays me.

You didn't pass the ball a lot in Sacramento. Was that a function of the system or is that just not your game?
If you watched those games, when I'm making a move, I'm going to make that move and try to score. Also, there's time where my assists weren't there because maybe I'm not the greatest playmaker, but I will pass the ball and give other guys chances. That's how that went. Over my three years in Sactown, they got rid of (Ron) Artest and I was playing with a lot of guys who were trying to make names for themselves in the league. They were young guys and just learning the game. Once Artest was gone, I was playing with four starters who had never started before. But I also think that's what made me the player I am today because I had all the attention of opposing teams.

So we should expect your assist totals to go up this year, just by virtue of Rick Adelman's system?
Yes.

When we say that a perimeter player knows how "to play off a big man," what does that mean?
I've always wanted to play with a guy like Yao. I think the trick is to keep them happy. You give them the ball when they're in great scoring position and you make the right plays when they give you the ball -- like me and Brad [Miller]. My offensive game is where it is today because of Brad Miller. The way he and Rick taught me how to cut and things like that made me so much better. The last three years in Sacramento, it was all, like, one-on-one. Now I'm back in a system where I can cut. Playing with big guys like Yao who get rebounds for you, you feed them back. Keep them happy.

Let's talk more about Brad Miller and Rick's system.
Rick's system is all about read-and-react. When you're young and watching film, you like to watch a couple of guys who you're modeling your game after, and mine was always Rip Hamilton. I always looked at how he came off screens. That's where my shooting and curling evolved. That was my bread and butter my first three years. Then I moved on to other things. Playing with Brad, he's the one who taught me how to cut at the right time -- not cut too early. When I started doing more iso stuff, I watched film of [Dwyane] Wade iso situations. You put all this together and that's how you become a more complete player.

So Brad was like Yoda Big Man? How did he impart this knowledge to you?
With Brad and me, it was always on the court. And I also got a chance to watch him and Peja [Stojakovic] play a lot my first year because I didn't really play too much. He and Peja had a great connection. I knew I was a lot quicker and had a lot more agility than Peja. So at the beginning, I would always do everything so fast. I'd be too fast before the cut, during the cut, after the cut. Brad would say, "Slow down! You're faster than everybody out here, but you have to read it!" He showed me the ins and outs of making those cuts and reads -- when to come around. Like when a guy plays under you, come around and take the jumper. And when a guy is playing you tight, you just go back door. Brad taught me how to play.

• I like Phoenix over Portland in a tough, 7-game series, but Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns aptly points to a huge concern for Phoenix: "I’m not sure if the Suns have a plan to keep Camby off the boards, but they sure need one. When the Suns win the rebounding battle, they often win the game, and believe it or not they out-rebound their opponents. Controlling Camby is one of Phoenix’s biggest keys to the series in my mind."
• Daryl Morey to Jason Friedman on elite free agency movement this summer: "I actually think they’ll all go sign-and-trade. Even the teams with room often will sign-and-trade into the room and get something back from the team. A free agent is picking where he wants to go more or less, so he eventually tells the team, 'I want to go there,' and the team doesn’t want to lose him for nothing, so they try to work out some sort of arrangement."
• For those who believe Shawn Marion lacks that killer instinct. (Hat Tip: Two Man Game)
• Orlando-Charlotte might be the series with the lowest Q Rating, but it's a chance to watch a chess match between two of the more cerebral coaches in basketball. Eddy Rivera of Magic Basketball talks with Queen City Hoops' Brett Hainline about what the Bobcats need to do to compete with the Magic. Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don't Lie makes a pointed argument that the Magic can't afford to have Rashard Lewis go M.I.A. if they want to be playing in June.
• Few teams have a less certain future than the Chicago Bulls, writes Matt McHale of By the Horns: "Rose and Noah are the foundation of the team. Beyond that, anything is possible. The Bulls are going to be rebuilt over the summer. In the end, this season has been about developing Derrick, Joakim, and even Taj. To that extent, the season was a success."
• At Basketball Prospectus, Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle offer all kinds of great stuff headed into the first weekend of the postseason. In the Lakers-Thunder preview, Pelton touches on my biggest concern for Oklahoma City: "When Durant has the basketball and the starting lineup is on the floor, only Jeff Green (33.3 percent) is any kind of threat from beyond the arc, which will allow the Lakers to offer help to Artest." As vulnerable as the Lakers seem right now, their proficiency for overloading defensively in the half court is still very, very strong. A team like the Thunder which doesn't shoot well from the perimeter and has few ball-movers can have a lot of trouble against that kind of strong-side pressure.
• The 1st Annual Tarence Kinsey Award goes to ...
• Liberty Ballers itemize what's gone wrong in Philadelphia.
• Darius Soriano of Forum Blue & Gold jots down a playoff wish list that includes more insults from Ty Lawson and traffic paralysis in central Los Angeles sometime in mid-June. As someone who uses Figueroa Street as a primary north-south thoroughfare, I'll concur on the first and punt on the second.
• Bethlehem Shoals and Tom Ziller apply Bill James' log5 method to prognosticate the first-round playoff series. Bulls fans, look away.
• You'll need at least $200 for a seat in the lower bowl at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City next Thursday night for the Thunder's first home playoff game.
• How a New England transplant and die-hard Red Sox fan came to love the Thunder and started to warm to the NBA.
• Zaza Pachulia isn't impressed with Mo Evans' spring fashion.

This morning Houston Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey said on Twitter that the Rockets are the best NBA team ever without an All-Star.

Wow. Really? Could that be so? The Rockets are 40-38 right now, with games against the Bobcats, Suns, Kings and Hornets on the docket. They'd have to win half their remaining games just to finish above .500. They've been out of the playoff hunt for a while now.

Has every team better than that, in NBA history, really had an All-Star?

I looked at this year's standings for a moment, and quickly came up with the Milwaukee Bucks. They have 44 wins already and I sure don't remember seeing any Bucks in that All-Star game in the Dallas Cowboys' Death Star.

Morey clarified by e-mail, saying the Rockets are the "only team since ABA/NBA merger (1976) with over a .500 record without an All-Star playing over 100 minutes. Michael Redd played 492 minutes for Bucks this year..."

He went on to explain that by "All-Star" he meant anyone who had ever been an All-Star, not just a current one, a measure by which the Bucks would be further disqualified thanks to Jerry Stackhouse.

Nobody sets out to be the best starless team ever. Not if you finish out of the playoffs. There's nothing dreamy about it. But it's still a nifty distinction for a Yao-less season in Houston. It's a decent feather in the cap of Morey's merry band of stat geeks, too, I suppose. Not only can they find the best role players, but they can also find this obscure statistic.

The interesting thing about it is that it's at once a tribute to Rick Adelman and the less famous Rockets he coaches -- nice going Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola and the gang -- while also a powerful ode to superstars, who are evidently entirely essential.

UPDATE: Justin Kubatko of Basketball-Reference digs in and finds several teams that won more, but had players who went on to be All-Stars:

• The Rockets still need to win two more games to clinch a winning record and the top spot on this list.
• If any one of the Rockets regular players (Kevin Martin, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, etc.) is selected to an All-Star Game in the future, the 2009-10 Rockets will drop off of this list.

Brent Barry has been thinking about statistics.

"Statistics," he says, "are like bikinis. They're really nice to look at but they don't tell you the whole story."

Barry attended the recent MIT Sloan Sports Conference with an NBA camera crew, and captured meaningful insight from the likes of Bill Simmons, Daryl Morey, Adam Silver and Mark Cuban.

My favorite moment comes when Barry asks Johnson if stats have ever really helped him as a coach, and Johnson talks about when he coached the Mavericks in a playoff series against the Rockets.

The numbers showed that Dallas was getting killed whenever Brent's brother, Jon Barry, checked into the game.

Brent, at this point, accuses Johnson of lying.

Then Johnson goes on to explain how, with this insight, the Mavericks changed tactics and went small whenever Jon Barry checked into the game, and it turned things around for them.

The marquee panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on Saturday was titled, "What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball," moderated by Michael Lewis. There's little doubt that the analytics movement in sports has strong momentum, but are there elements that practitioners of advanced stats are missing? M. Haubs has an insightful dispatch from the session at The Painted Area. Among the highlights of the discussion:

Lewis asked Morey if he believed in clutch stats, long a controversial difference between common fans - who worship the art of the clutch - and statheads - who tend to believe that the idea of clutch statistics are not definitive and conclusive.

Morey artfully answered, "We don't make any decisions based on the belief of that." Interestingly, Cuban disagreed, and said that that was one reason he wanted Kidd, whom he believes plays differently in "win time" than he does in the other 45 minutes of the game.

Yesterday, Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty made a nice little chart showing that the Kings have had the least consistent playing rotations in the NBA this season.

On the same day, Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee quoted three Kings: Sean May, Spencer Hawes, and Tyreke Evans, talking about how the strange minutes distribution (pity Donte Greene, who started a game, sat after four minutes, and never got back in) has been difficult for players.

To my reading, the most pointed quotes of all came from Evans, who was clear that he thinks the coach's decisions are hurting performance:

"Guys never know when they'll be having their time to play or they might be (starting)," Evans said.

"They're going into the game confused, and when they get into the game they want to impress the coach and (try) to play well. … It's probably hard for a player to keep that focus when they know that if they're playing bad they might not go in again."

Hawes, meanwhile, was mushier, mostly just saying that it was tough, which is fairly obvious:

"All year we've kind of been dealing with that," he said. "When you think you have kind of gotten over that hump, it comes back up again. That's the philosophy, so you've just got to deal with it.

"Everyone up and down the roster has had a taste of that, so everyone can relate. I think it's kind of tough, the not-knowing part on a game-to-game basis, to get in that rhythm. But that's the way it's going and there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

In any case, rather than reacting to all that feedback with some ode to improved consistency, Westphal instead decided to try another new roster manuever. He made Hawes (and only Hawes) inactive last night against Detroit. That was specifically in response to those kinds of comments. Hawes has started the majority of the games this season. Westphal explained the move to the Bee's Jason Jones:

"I saw where he's having a hard time understanding his role," said Kings coach Paul Westphal. "He should understand it (after) tonight."

I know what you're thinking. What a lot of drama! I wonder what the next conversation between Hawes and Westphal will be like?

They could make a reality show out of that locker room scene!

Well, in a hilarious, imagined, animated robotic way, they did. I insist you watch that. Honestly.

UPDATE: Similar insight into Daryl Morey's negotiations with Donnie Walsh.

• The Rockets made out like bandits in yesterday's three-team trade with Sacramento and New York. Jason Friedman gets to the heart of what Daryl Morey & Company were able to accomplish: "In Martin, the Rockets have filled a glaring void at the 2-guard spot. And this isn’t simply some band-aid, stop-gap solution. Martin is one of the NBA’s most efficient scoring weapons, a player who drains 3s and draws fouls in bunches, which has allowed him to post a True Shooting Percentage above 60% for four consecutive seasons. In other words, he’s the perfect fit for a team which treats efficiency like it’s the Holy Grail ... Then there are those draft picks. Oh, those wonderful draft picks ... the Rockets now own a pair of first round picks in 2011 and 2012 which gives Morey more of an opportunity to weave his magic, be it through savvy selections or additional wheeling and dealing. We’re talking about laying down this franchise’s foundation of the future here, people; one which suddenly looks so very bright not just for the rest of this year and (especially) the next – but for the years to come as well."
• At Hardwood Paroxysm, Wyn Douglas takes a historical look at the success and failure of teams after the trade deadline. Also at Hardwood Paroxysm, Jared Wade isn't ready to bury Tracy McGrady just yet. He wonders if McGrady can revive his career as a Grant Hill-like facilitator, and runs through the list of other superstar journeymen who have played for multiple teams.
• Lots of fun with player comps in a two-parter from Neil Paine at Basketball Reference. Fascinating stuff: Paine's project makes Andrei Kirilenko the modern equivalent of Marques Johnson.
• At the deadline, the Chicago Bulls acquired four ... gremlins?
• Byron Scott and Mychal Thompson engaged in a real-life boxing match. There's some disagreement about which former Laker won on points. In the same interview, Scott says that the Clippers head coaching job is intriguing: "I do think the Clipper job is a pretty good job for me. They have got some young talent.Obviously they are going to have a lot of cap room and another lottery pick coming in."
• The worst thing about blogging the Cavs, according to John Krolik of Cavs: the Blog.
• Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company looks at Carmelo Anthony's big shot against LeBron James.
• Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns delves into the host of questions surrounding Amare Stoudemire's staying put in Phoenix.
• "Shake" -- not just a liquified dessert, but a way to measure a player's consistency.
• You know that remixed "Defense" NBA spot? The most amusing clip in the ad is the unintentional irony of Eddie House in the Celtics huddle yelling, "Keep playing defense!" House was dealt from Boston to New York yesterday. At Celtics Hub, Zach Lowe bids farewell to the C's inveterate shooter, focusing on his favorite House moment, which occurred in the fourth quarter of Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals.
• Matthew Bunch of Hot Hot Hoops says sometimes the best move at the deadline is no move at all.
• The best thing about the Bucks' deal for John Salmons? Milwaukee hung onto its picks and got some draft considerations from Chicago.
• Knickerblogger draws up an extensive report card on New York's deadline moves.

24 hours ago, nobody would have picked Minnesota at Houston as the game of the night, but that's why they play the games! You never know what's going to happen, and that one turned into a triple overtime thriller, which the home team won by a millimeter.

The play of the night, in case you haven't seen it already, came at the end of regulation when Corey Brewer -- a player whose 3-point shooting stats are marred by the fact that he throws up half-court buzzer-beaters every chance he gets -- showed why every player should send up prayers:


Despite that make, this was really a story of misses.

The Timberwolves, the NBA's 29th-ranked offense, know what it's like to be cold. For the Rockets, it was apparently a story of playing on the second night of a back-to-back and just not feeling it.

Houston's offense typically features players like Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier and Kyle Lowry standing on the wings, ready to catch the ball and score points. Those three missed everything they threw up in the first quarter. Battier and Ariza made one each in the second quarter, and Battier made two field goals in the third quarter. None made a field goal in the fourth quarter or first overtime, but not for lack of trying. They finished a combined 12 of 37 from the field, which is bad even for three players who are averaging just south of 40% from the floor this season.

Houston needed a savior, and early in the fourth quarter, one of the younger, best-conditioned Rockets -- Aaron Brooks (who played 59 minutes in this game, more than any other player this season) -- turned it on. He finished with 43 points.


Now that's a guy with a hot hand.

Right? Did you see that last play? Aaron Brooks basically beat all five Minnesota defenders by himself.

But ... that play made me think. Doesn't Aaron Brooks play for Houston GM Daryl Morey, who organized the conference in Boston (this year's is coming up, by the way -- get on that) where John Huizinga (the agent of Yao Ming, who also plays for Morey) and Sandy Weil presented a convincing paper demonstrating that the hot hand, if it exists at all, is extremely rare?

Is there such a thing as hotness? Was Aaron Brooks really infused with something special last night?

"I," says David Thorpe, "absolutely believe in the hot hand. No doubt about it."

Watch that highlight reel above again, and stop if with 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter. There's Brooks, in the paint, staring down the entire state of Minnesota. Wide open to his left is the cold Battier. Wide open to his right is the colder Trevor Ariza. What's the best play for the Rockets? Small man vs. big world, or wide-open shooters?

If you believe Brooks was hot, and Battier and Ariza were cold, then you'll take Brooks. But if you don't believe in the hot hand, then don't you have to go with the open shooters?

Morey shared some thoughts on this by e-mail. He had no specific answer about whether or not Brooks should have shot or passed on that play. But he did care that Brooks was rolling: "I believe that generally younger players play better (and this can include shot making) when confident, and making shots absolutely impacts their confidence. Shane Battier, Luis Scola and David Andersen are all very consistent players whose play seems unaffected by whether their last shot has gone in or the game situation (e.g. end of a close game), etc. I do think the rest of the team is affected by their recent play and the game situation to different degrees depending on the player."

That could be taken as an argument that, having made some shots, Brooks was poised to play better than average.

If hotness exists, however, then so does coldness. I pointed out a possession to Morey, late in the game, when Battier seemed to be demonstrating belief in his own coldness -- having just missed a long jumper, he was open for a second attempt, but didn't even look at the hoop. If the research at Morey's conference was correct, Battier should not let a few misses keep him from taking a good shot. "If Shane passes up an open 3-point look, that is obviously not something we want," says Morey, "but often when he does it is because he sees the possibility of getting something better (e.g. he will pass it up for a deep post touch)."

By and large, Morey says the Rockets are looking for a good shot, without regard to who's hot, which is in keeping with the research. But he leaves himself some wiggle room for one of the most cherished ideas in hoops, that players get hot. "I think I can speak for the coaches in that we are just looking for a solid shot each possession, regardless of what has happened in the recent past," writes Morey. But he adds that "Coach will often fluctuate minutes based on if players are having a good/poor night overall," he writes, "which can include shot making ('hot hand') but is generally all encompassing (they are playing solid defense, their matchup is good, etc.).

Brooks cooled off in the overtimes, making two of his seven field goals (both 3s, although he made seven-of-eight overtime free throws.)

With 8.4 seconds left in the second overtime, the Rockets inbounded, in a tie game. It was deja vu. Brooks drove into all of the Minnesota defense. It was the exact same play that had been the highlight of the Rockets' fourth quarter. Ariza, Battier and Lowry were dotted around the perimeter, wide open. Once again, Brooks ignored them all, and wound his way through defenders eager not to foul.

This time, he missed. On to the third overtime.

Had the Rockets made a mistake in not using the open shooters that are the bread and butter of their offense?

In the final overtime, the Rockets clung to a three-point lead. All night, despite Brooks' excellence, the Rockets had been unable to build a meaningful lead when it mattered. Then, with 1:54 left, something amazing happened. One of Houston's three cold wing players finally hit a 3. Battier got one to fall from the corner, and the Rockets, up six, never looked back.

Still at issue: Quadruple- or quintuple-teamed, is it smarter have Brooks shoot or pass? It was the same play in the fourth quarter, and in the second overtime. One tough make and one tough miss. Was Brooks, in fact, hot? Or was he keeping the Rockets from their best available shots with the idea that he was hot?

It's something basketball people are going to argue about for a long time.

Rockets.com's Jason Friedman interviewed Daryl Morey about whether or not he's getting a lot of trade offers this time of year. Morey jokes that he's running a big box store:

This is the third biggest trade discussion time of the year. The trade deadline is the biggest obviously, then the draft and also now since as of two days ago almost all the players became available. So, yeah, a lot of phone calls and I do agree that we have a lot of players that teams want. We can provide financial relief, we can provide players who can help you win now, we can provide players who can help you for the future -- so we’re sort of like Target right now in that we can provide everything under one roof. We can give it all and handle any need.

Obviously our goals are high though, so I’d expect nothing will happen. But if the right thing comes along and we can upgrade the team then that’s why I’m here.

Worth pointing out: Morey goes to some trouble to point out that he doesn't actually see players as "pieces" to be traded, but instead as humans, which is nice.

Later in the conversation, Morey addresses the nickname Bill Simmons gave him: Dork Elvis.

I don’t think that’s accurate, actually. I’m much more under the radar and stay out of the spotlight. I think I’m more like the Dork Cat Stevens.

Posted by Timothy Varner of 48 Minutes of Hell.

Woody Allen likes to tell a joke. A mother and the local priest go to see her son's boxing match. Through the opening rounds the mother is horrified to see her son get clobbered by his opponent, a much more aggressive, skilled fighter. Unable to watch the beating, she turns to her priest with a desperate plea, "Father, Father, please won't you pray for him?" "I'd be happy to pray for him," the priest responds, "but it would help if he landed some punches."

I often think of that joke in relation to college stars trying to find their way into the NBA.  As someone who chronicles the Spurs, my appreciation runs deep for players who take an early beating but eventually land enough punches to make a fight of it. It's a lesson in the psychology of a Spurs fan. Call it Bruce Bowen sentimentalism.

Central Florida's Jermaine Taylor signed with the Rockets yesterday. He's landing punches.

Taylor's professional career is in its infancy, but he already knows the hard truth about life as a professional athlete.  It's a struggle.

This spring Taylor was on the draft bubble. But he converted a strong showing at Portsmouth into an early second round selection. That early second round selection became an opportunity to register a solid week of play at summer league. After summer league, Jermaine Taylor made good for himself at the annual oasis in the desert that is Tim Grgurich's carefully guarded camp.

Players like Taylor give me reason to cheer. 

The Shawn Marion deal is grounds for cautious optimism for Dallas. The Antonio McDyess signing means that Spurs ownership will take a hit in the pocketbook. And the quasi-Trevor Ariza-Ron Artest swap in Houston stirs mixed emotions. 

Rob Mahoney of Two Man Game: "While the Mavs won't be confused with the SSoL Suns, it's still easy to see [Shawn] Marion fulfilling his same duties as a one-man fast break. But more than anything, the Mavs are somewhat reliant on the notion that putting more weapons around Marion will boost his effectiveness and his efficiency on offense. Marion was a second offensive option on his last two stops, but with the Mavs he moves a bit further down the totem pole. The Mavs have an elite scoring talent in Dirk [Nowitzki], but also boast shot-creators in Jason Terry and Josh Howard. The attention that those three draw should definitely relieve some of the pressure from Marion, but the question is: Will it be enough? ... It's hard to say exactly where the Mavs' moves thus far put them in the context of the Western Conference ... For every little flaw I've picked at in this post, this is still Shawn fricking Marion. Even Shawn's harshest critics would have to concede that Dallas improved as a result of this deal. For every minor issue Marion brings to the forefront, he solves a handful of others. While he may not fit like a glove, the acquisition of Marion is far from forcing a square peg into a round hole. Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban showed some creativity in getting Marion to Dallas, and now it's up to Rick Carlisle to show some creativity in getting him to excel here."

Graydon Gordian of 48 Minutes of Hell: "By signing [Antonio] McDyess to the full Mid-Level Exception and [Marcus] Haislip to the full Bi-Annual Exception (most likely), the Spurs are now a solid $10 million over the line ... Peter Holt took a serious financial hit yesterday and he did so for the good of the franchise you love. It's hard to feel sympathy for a man whose net worth is counted not just in millions but in tens of millions, but compare Holt's situation to Mark Cuban's, whose net worth is presumed to be north of $2 billion, and you begin to recognize the commitment Holt is making to the franchise. When the Mavericks head into the luxury tax, Cuban hardly feels the prick of a pin. Holt and the rest of the Spurs ownership group commit a significant fraction of the franchise's net worth to the team's success. Mr. Holt's financial commitment to the team is significant to no one more than the 3 individuals we adore most: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Whether by only requesting reasonable contracts or restructuring their contracts to allow the team to acquire the necessary supporting cast, over the last several years the big three have done their part to ensure the Spurs are in a position to compete for championships. By allowing the front office to take the steps they took today, Holt has kept up his end of the bargain."

Anup Shah of Rockets Buzz: "The wan, dreary days that have been the two weeks since the draft finally parted the clouds for a glimmer of hope today. The Rockets were granted an exception for Yao, and now Daryl Morey can make the moves to at least give the Rockets a chance next season. And with the money they got from the exception, the Rockets officially inked [Trevor] Ariza for $5.7 million and still have $5.7 million more to spend on someone else. The hype won't match that of a year ago, but it certainly allows the Rockets to be more proactive -- to, as much as I hate to say it, start thinking past the TMac-Yao era. Then there was this video I watched more than once today. You hear [Ron] Artest say how he 'always wanted to be a Laker' and that this decision was a 'no-brainer.' To Rockets fans, pull the knives out of your back and patch up that cut. If you watch this video, every time Artest shoots the ball, you'll see a teammate calling for the ball back. And you remember the bad that came with the good. The 4-for-21 nights. The nights Artest was NOT the facilitator of the offense. I don't know what the future holds for the Rockets this year, but it'll be something new, and fans have come to trust Daryl Morey's judgment."

THE FINAL WORD
3 Shades of Blue: A blogger-owner dialogue with Michael Heisley.
Knickerblogger: Smart breakdown of salary cap arcana.
Bucksketball: Free agent signings -- not all they're cracked up to be.

(Photos by Streeter Lecka, Noah Graham, Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)

Posted by Kevin Arnovitz

LOS ANGELES -- Maybe they're pumping nitrous oxide into the Clippers training facility in Playa Vista, where the Houston Rockets are practicing while in Los Angeles, but if the Rockets were any looser, they'd be unconscious. Even the normally reserved and media-shy Kyle Lowry was flashing smiles and entertaining reporters. 

"I've been dreaming about this," Lowry said. "Second round, game five, playing against the Lakers and Kobe Bryant! It gets no better." Lowry's response tailed off with a little chuckle.

Meanwhile, the word fun surfaced ten times in Aaron Brooks' four minute schmooze with the press -- but not without a disclaimer. "I just found out that funner is not a word," Brooks said.

Asked how Brooks will deal with what will inevitably be a much more aggressive brand of pick-and-roll defense from the Lakers, Brooks with utter cool answered, "I'll pass the ball." 

Brooks then cracked a smile and continued. "If they're doubling me then, if my math is right...hmmm...[stroking his chin professorially]...that's our four against their three. If they rush two at me, I hope one of them is slow, and I'll attack that person."

Brooks might be a court jester, but he's no fool. "We just have to attack them," Brooks said. "Chuck [Hayes] can make plays. He's a better ball-handler than Yao is." 

As Lowry and Brooks held court, the Rockets' big men engaged in a fierce half-court shooting contest that was going nowhere, but was incredibly entertaining. Off to the side, Shane Battier answered a question about whether it bothered him that his political hero, Barack Obama, picked North Carolina in the NCAA tournament. "So did I," Battier confessed. "We're trying to putt for dough here, not drive for show." 

Battier then went on to credit the Rockets' cult status among stat geeks to Rockets' general manager, Daryl Morey. "It's who we are," Battier said. "I don't think we're going to get the love of the six foot blonde bombshell. That's what the Lakers are here for. It's alright, I like our demographic." 

Last Saturday I filled most of a notebook with thoughts from the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference. It's all good fodder for TrueHoop. Pieces have made their way onto TrueHoop. More to come.

But it has been a busy week ever since (there is no rest when you're determined to write about Trevor Ariza every ten minutes!) and I don't want to let those thoughts slip through the cracks.

Some notes:

1. John Huizinga, University of Chicago Business school professor (and Yao Ming agent) says sports businesses need to cater to people's recession feelings. "You want to eat meatloaf in a recession," he says, "and sushi in a boom." The idea is that comforting things will be popular now, and adventerous things might be more appealing when the economy is healthier.

2. Sporting events are comforting! Brightly colored uniforms. Effort. And a forum without financial news. The NBA has been trotting out numbers saying that attendance is not bad, which seemed to defy the broader economy. Who knows how those numbers hold up over time, but Dr. Roger Brinner of the Parthenon Group presented data showing that attending sporting events is a small part of the economy that picks up in a recession. Pretty convincing graphs showed good attendance in bad times.

3. Salary caps are good for owners, duh, but here's an interesting look at how profoundly: Jonathan Kraft, owner of the Patriots, said that he would have put in a serious offer to buy a major European soccer club. He loved the market, and he felt some business practices from the Patriots could make it extremely profitable. You would think that one of savviest businessmen in sports, with very deep pockets, would have made the league stronger. But the lack of a salary cap was a deal-breaker. He says he had no way of knowing how much it would cost to keep competitive with clubs run by Russian oligarchs. Kraft was determined to run the club in a "business-like" manner, and was scared off.

4. Every time I hear about the government needing "shovel ready" projects to invest in as economic stimulus, I can't help but think: Governments pay for stadiums anyway. Surely somebody is going to get some stadium stimulus dollars. Tim Romani from Icon Venue Group addressed that. He said he thought there would be stimulus money for "horizontal" costs associated with new arenas (parking, rail, infrastructure) but not "vertical" (the arena itself).

5. Many people were asked to guess at "the black swan." What's the thing that's coming that no one's expecting? Most said that a terrorist attack at a major sporting event would change everything. Another potential disaster would be corruption along the lines of the Tim Donaghy scandal.

6. Somebody asked Jonathan Kraft what his players felt about being forced to play overseas. He was pretty politic about it, but eventually got around to admitting that three quarters of the Patriots did not even have passports, and the team and the coaching staff were pretty much against it. But Kraft and the NFL thought it made long-term business sense, and "that's why [players and coaches] aren't making strategy decisions for the league." As the NBA gets more and more global, I could see similar things playing out in basketball.

7. There was a funny moment, when John Huizinga was asked to speculate about where LeBron James might end up after free agency. This was the night after James and his Cavaliers had played in Boston. Huizinga made the case that top level players play because they want to win, and if James thought he could win a title in Cleveland, he'd stay. Celtics broadcaster Mike Gorman quickly quipped: "We found out last night he can't do that."

8. Huizinga and Sandy Weil were responsible for the hot hand research that I still promise will be on TrueHoop in more detail at some point. It was a huge research project. It shook out a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with hot hands, too. For instance, how you get the ball matters tremendously to how likely you are to score with it. If you get the ball in a liveball turnover (a steal for instance) your shooting percentage is 12% higher than normal. If you get the ball from an offensive rebound, it's 8% higher. Home teams, meanwhile, shoot 1.5% better -- so you can see these advantages are major. This is part of the reason players who force turnovers are more valuable than they might first appear. Another special thing about steals is that (I can't remember who told me this) it may well be a marker for players with great hands, which can have great benefits beyond steals.

9. Researchers on that project and others are desperate for more complete stats from the NBA. Was that jumper contested or uncontested? And if you're fouled in the act of shooting, what kind of shot was it? That's not recorded, and it probaby ought to be, as more and more teams are trying to use the NBA's data to make smart decisions.

10. Huizinga and Weil found that possession is nine tenths of the law, meaning ... If a big man hits a shot, he's slightly more likely to get the ball again next time. If a guard hits a shot, he's very likely take the next shot. Guards, of course, decide who gets the ball, which is probably no coincidence.

11. Mark Cuban talked about a lot of the sophisticated statistics the Mavericks use. And then he was asked what kind of data they share with players. The example he gave was so basic -- they would tell someone if they were hot from a particular spot. Another team stat guy told me that he would keep his advanced insights to himself, unless it was encouragement to keep doing what they're doing, which was always welcomed by players and coaches. Mike Zarren says that on the Celtics, he shares what he believes to be important. "I've never been told: Don't tell me that," he reports. "I have," retorts the Nuggets' Dean Oliver. Oliver's case seems to be the more typical. Which makes me think that there must be a lot of insight that is not being put to use, and therefore there might be a little premium on players and coaches who are savvy in integrating this kind of input.

12. Right now, any team that wants to be very stat savvy has to hire tons of people to chart years of games. (Mark Cuban says the Maverick database, now with eight years of data, is starting to become much more interesting.) Then they can mine all that data (who was guarding whom, passing, where everybody shot from, etc.) to answer questions. But it's very expensive. So the question is: Why don't teams or the league band together to pay people to log all those plays? Then they can dig in at will. And the answer is, teams are way too protective of their processes for stuff like this, and are unwilling to share any element of it, even if it costs them extra. One day, I suspect, the data will be more of a commodity, and how to slice and dice it will be what matters.

13. A recurring theme was that in Houston, Daryl Morey has a big team of analysts. Way bigger than any other teams, it appears. Dean Oliver, for instance, says: "I'm a one man shop. He's sitting over there with ten or eleven guys." John Hollinger adds: "Luckily for Daryl, there's no luxury tax on analysts."

14. Mike Zarren of the Celtics hammered a key point: That being really smart is not nearly enough. He thinks the key skill for a stat person to have is excellent communication skills -- because without it the ideas won't get across to those who need to learn them. Zarren has generally worked alone on Celtic stats stuff, but recently hired David Sparks, who previously wrote for a TrueHoop Network blog, Hardwood Paroxysm.

15. Dean Oliver said he is working with an outside business to help analyze basketball. This sport is so complicated, he says, that if you can figure it out statistically, you can use some of lessons in making models for really complicated kinds of real-world applications  -- and that's just what this business plans to do. I'd love to know more about that. Basketball as a model for .. what ... War? Health care? Politics?

16. Mark Cuban talked about maybe one day systematically analyzing players and coaches in how they address the media in post-game video, as insight into their character and nature.

17. Daryl Morey said that basketball is not like many professions. The goal is to be the very best. One team out of thirty goes home happy. On Wall Street, or in most things, it is enough to be really good year in and year out. But in basketball, you have to be the absolute best, or else you have failed. Morey believes that, in that environment, one is justified in taking great risks. Why does it seem like he's talking about Ron Artest?

18. Brian Burke, president and GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, said that every team, over 30 years, wins about half their games. It may well be true. But as he said it, I leaned over to David Thorpe and said "I don't think R.C. Buford believes that."

19. Mark Cuban was clear that he thought a key factor in Kevin Garnett ending up in Boston was Danny Ainge's relationship with Minnesota's Kevin McHale. Cuban says the Mavericks were one of several teams that thought they had a deal done to acquire Garnett (he also mentioned Golden State) and had even heard from Garnett's agent who was wondering about an extension. But it didn't happen. "At the end of the day," says Cuban, with a wry smile, "relationships matter in the NBA."

20. Mark Cuban: "Hiring coaches is the hardest job that there is. Period. End of story." Part of his assessment of Rick Carlisle, he explained, involved noticing that Carlisle very often played lineups that Cuban's database deemed to be the most effective from the available roster.

21. Daryl Morey said that one of the things that is most knowable, from the modern use of statistics, is when to go for the two-for-one as the clock is expiring. On this one little thing, there are thousands and thousands of examples, the efficacy of which can be easily sliced and diced. Unfortunately, he didn't share the specific lessons.

22. Morey also said that he really did not consult with his players on personnel moves, because it would be awkward if he consulted them, they said they didn't like the move, and then Morey made the trade or signing anyway. In the aftermath, however, he says he explains the rationale. UPDATE: I originally wrote this note saying he didn't consult coaches, which is how I had it in my notes. Morey assures me he does consult coaches.

23. Mark Cuban says teams and the NBA suffer from "so many self-inflicted wounds." For instance, he couldn't fathom why the NBA would have a scheme where draft prospects could not be worked out in a five-on-five setting.

24. I moderated a panel about team chemistry. One of the key things I learned in preparation was about was that social cohesion -- liking each other off the court -- did not necessarily correlate with task cohesion -- working effectively together. But several of the panelists (NFL Hall of Famer Andre Tippett, Suns Executive David Griffin, Celtic Assistant Coach Armond Hill, and Bulls' team psychologist Dr. Steven Julius) believed the social cohesion was more or less essential.

25. Dr. Julius says that Michael Jordan had a key moment when he came to believe in team chemistry. In the 1991 NBA Finals, there was a moment when Jordan was entirely dominating the ball. According to Julius, Phil Jackson called a timeout to tell him to pass it around. Jordan ignored him. Jackson called another timeout, and said that he would bench Jordan if he didn't start trusting his teammates. Jordan did start to trust his teammates, and the Bulls won six titles.