TrueHoop: David Kahn
Will running more equate to winning more?
The line Lowe used to end his piece really stuck with me though.
“Winning in the NBA is a complicated business, and running more for the sake of running more won’t get you there if you don’t have the right pieces in place.”
When David Kahn held his press conference to announce the three-month long process of deciding whether or not Kurt Rambis should coach a 17-win team next season, he continually mentioned the word “up-tempo” and talked about how the fans wanted to see up-tempo basketball. Perhaps, he was thinking along the lines that Lowe was thinking. The Wolves’ pace last year was the highest in the league but their transition game was sort of a disaster. Maybe the idea of playing more up-tempo had nothing to do with possessions and more to do with how they used those possessions.
Where I disagree with Kahn’s assessment that Wolves fans want to see up-tempo basketball is in the word “want.” To say Wolves fans just want to see up-tempo basketball seems to be extremely shortsighted. I think Wolves fans are willing to settle for up-tempo basketball if the wins aren’t going to be pouring in any time soon. If up-tempo basketball is going to make the Wolves more competitive than they were last season, I think it’s something we’d all settle for.
However, more than anything Wolves fans just want this team win more games. It sounds simple and maybe it is. 32 wins in two combined seasons will do that to you. If the Wolves had to grind out 78-77 wins every night to be a .500 team, I would take that over a 25-win team that made the all of the highlight reels. If that isn’t a possibility with the current personnel and whoever the incoming head coach will be, then I’ll definitely settle for seeing more exciting basketball.
If anything, this concept of the fans wanting to see faster paced basketball with Ricky Rubio running the show seems more like a marketing tool than a strategy for turning the Wolves around right now. It’s rebranding the image of a poor product.
Over the past 10 seasons, 45 teams in the NBA have had a pace of 94 possessions per game or higher, according the basketball-reference.com. 21 of those teams had a winning record, one of those teams finished 41-41, and 23 of those teams finished with a losing record. Last season, the Wolves had a pace of 96.5 and finished with the worst record in the league.
Of the teams that finished in the top 10 of the NBA in pace last season, only the Knicks, Nuggets and Rockets finished with a winning record. In the 2009-10 season, only three teams in the top 10 in pace ended up finishing with a winning record too. Teams like the Suns and Nuggets have made it work over the past few years because they know the difference between chaos and controlled chaos in an up-tempo setting.
The problem with forcing the tempo when you aren’t a very good team is you’re saying the best strategy to compete against better opponents is to give those opponents extra possessions against you. If anything, it seems more logical to limit possessions so there is less likelihood of your opponent getting the opportunity to make up for any miscues throughout the game. If your players are overmatched by their opponents most nights, why accentuate the disparity in talent by creating more chances for them to be inferior?
Does this mean the Wolves should grind it out and turn things into a defensive battle this coming season? Not really. They don’t have the roster to do so at the moment. This Wolves team is set up to run more than they are to bring back the style of the 2004 Pistons. The biggest difference with the Wolves current roster and the one from last year is they now have a true floor general with Ricky Rubio running the show. And they're going to try to utilize his skills immediately.
Despite having the most possessions per game last season, the Wolves were 25th in total assists. They didn’t have the offense or the point guard to truly set up scoring opportunities. While Ricky Rubio’s scoring ability and defensive capabilities are in question, his sense for finding open teammates and getting them the ball has never really been doubted. Rubio’s vision on the floor will be instrumental in turning the Wolves from an up-tempo team to a transition juggernaut.
The Wolves are basically stuck in their own way on the court right now. Through Rubio’s conducting, the Wolves could be in much better shape offensively. In theory, they’ll get better looks in transition and during the secondary breaks. They shot the ball extremely well from 3-point range last year (fifth in the NBA) but were 27th in overall field goal percentage. However, by running more on the court, they’re putting their 27th ranked defense at jeopardy of having to play more possessions each game.
It may seem like I’m contradicting myself here and playing both sides. That’s probably because I am. There is good, bad, and ultimately confusion with the Wolves’ plan of trying to turn the top-ranked tempo in the NBA last year into an even faster team.
Running more doesn’t really mean more wins or even better basketball. Running just for the sake of running seems like a way to try to bring outside interest to the team, rather than guaranteeing a strategy that will translate to wins. This is the reality Wolves fans have to settle for right now as we hope the franchise is ready to turn the corner.
It’s like Lowe said: “Winning in the NBA is a complicated business, and running more for the sake of running more won’t get you there if you don’t have the right pieces in place.”
- Minnesota president of basketball operations David Kahn emphatically vowed that his next head coach will embody "uptempo DNA." Beckley Mason of HoopSpeak notes that last season's Timberwolves squad played at one of the fastest clips in recent NBA history. The problem isn't pace, it's a lack of precision required to translate that speed into success: "Michael Beasley’s speeding arrest ... is a tidy metaphor for the way the Timberwolves played last year: A young person with a history of making bad decisions goes too fast and gets punished in embarrassing, if not monetarily consequential, fashion." In related news, Marc Stein reports that Don Nelson -- he of the uptempo DNA -- has interest in the Wolves.
- J.M. Poulard of WarriorsWorld on what could've been had Chris Webber remained in Oakland for the duration.
- For ACC basketball fans, N.C. State's Julius Hodge was a dazzling sideshow. The Pack never resided at the top of the conference, but Hodge's intensity was infectious. His epic battles with Chris Paul were electrifying and his game-winner against UConn in the 2005 NCAA tourney was a sequence for the ages (call by Gus Johnson). Hodge has never had more than a cup of coffee in the NBA and has spent the past few seasons playing pro ball in Australia. But this week, he's going mano-a-mano with John Wall in the North Carolina Pro-Am Summer League -- and holding his own.
- For those who scratched their head when the Lakers drafted Sudanese prospect Ater Majok in last month's draft, here's some video via Inside Hoops of Majok playing streetball in New York's famed Rucker Park.
- Talk to enough NBA execs and you'll hear Kelvin Sampson mentioned as a natural candidate for a head coaching gig. In the meantime, he'll join Kevin McHale's staff in Houston, along with J.B. Bickerstaff.
- How a one-word answer from an NBA executive induced a threat of a seven-figure fine.
- NBA teams in search of a free agent point guard are going to find that the shelf is pretty bare.
- Sactown Royalty does a nice survey of small forwards on the market. It's a measurably better field than the point guards, but a menu that's still lacking elite impact players.
- Part Three of the Byran Colangelo report card from Raptors Republic.
- After the Pistons declined to extend a qualifying offer to DaJuan Summers, the young forward signed with Siena in Italy. One of his first stops in his new home? The World War II Memorial.
- The American Century Celebrity Gold Tournament tweets that Michael Jordan will not be allowed to play alongside any active NBA players. (Hat tip: Greg Wiley)
- If you see Sean May driving without a grande coffee in the cup holder, it might be best to pull over.
- Al-Farouq Aminu via Twitter: "I don't need a shirt that says making it rain .... I need one that says I pay bills lol"
Was Kurt Rambis really that bad?
With a team of Shaquille O’Neal, a 20-year-old Kobe Bryant, Eddie Jones, Glen Rice and budding role players who eventually would help restore glory to the Lakers, Rambis took over 13 games into the 1998-99 lockout-shortened campaign and had a regular-season coaching record of 24-13. He coached Los Angeles past the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs before they were swept by the Spurs in the second round.
Although it’s a small sample size to examine, I think it’s reasonable to say that Rambis was capable of coaching really good players. He helped coach the Lakers to the fourth seed in the conference after a 7-6 start before losing to the eventual NBA champions.
After a brief stint as the Lakers' assistant general manager while moonlighting as Coach Cleary on the TV show "7th Heaven" (no, seriously), he was brought back to the coaching ranks as an assistant to Phil Jackson in 2002. Over the next seven years, when Jackson was coaching, Rambis was assisting him and learning from every bit of knowledge Jackson kicked his way.
When Minnesota hired Rambis in 2009 to be David Kahn’s first head-coaching hire, there was both good and bad with the move. Taking the triangle system he learned from Jackson and Tex Winter and applying it to the lowly Timberwolves seemed like an odd move. The triangle had worked only when run/broken off by two of the greatest scorers in NBA history had been involved. Plus, you essentially needed at least two stars to be a part of it, and counting Al Jefferson and second-year player Kevin Love, the Wolves had exactly zero stars to help execute the complicated system at the start.
Not only that, but Kahn had just selected back-to-back point guards with the fifth and sixth picks in the '09 draft, and neither of those players had skills conducive to shining in the triangle system. The Wolves' plan was supposedly to play fast, then run the triangle when the game pace slowed down. However, only five times in Jackson’s 20 years of coaching did his team finish higher than 14th in the NBA in pace.
Aside from Love, the majority of the roster didn’t seem to fit the triangle system at all. Rambis was given Ramon Sessions and Jonny Flynn as his point guards the first season and Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair and an injured Flynn the second season. In his first season, he had Corey Brewer and Ryan Gomes as his best wing scorers. Last season, he had Michael Beasley inefficiently throwing the ball at the rim with Martell Webster as the next-best wing option. Love shined last season (after finally being given consistent minutes), but Darko Milicic ended up being one of the worst offensive weapons in the NBA, despite his reportedly legendary passing ability.
Defensively, the Wolves' best interior defender has been a close race between Ryan Hollins and Milicic. Love barely looked like he was finally starting to understand rotating on defense by the end of last season. The rest of the team was constantly out of position, not staying in front of its matchups, too small to bang inside and unable to get back on defense.
A lot of those issues can be linked to coaching, but a lot of them also can be linked to just not having good enough NBA talent.
Kahn has been the laughingstock of the NBA because he’s been both arrogant in the way he discusses his moves and because of the moves themselves. Rambis was never the right hire for this job, considering he wasn’t involved initially at the beginning of this Kahn-led rebuilding process.
Between the time Kahn took over the team in late May 2009, and when Rambis was hired in early August 2009, Kahn had already made five trades involving 17 different players. He also had butchered four of the 30 first-round picks in the 2009 draft.
Rambis was not a very good coach over the past two years. His teams were inefficient offensively and abhorrent defensively. Last season, it seemed that he was one of the worst fourth-quarter coaches in the entire league because of how the Wolves seemed to kick away leads. (Yes, they actually had fourth-quarter leads.) But I’m not so sure he was as bad as his 32-132 record would suggest.
Rambis is not a good coach when he’s given a bad team. That’s been proved. However, the way he’s been treated by Kahn and the Wolves organization in the past two months might be the most embarrassing part of this entire era. Rambis should have been fired right after the regular season ended. There was no real reason to drag this out. It’s just another case of the Wolves mismanaging a personnel decision within the organization. The Wolves already should have a head coach and be ready to make roster decisions once the lockout ends. Instead, they've once again been making moves without a head coach in place for the upcoming season.
Just as it’s nearly impossible to know whether Rambis is a good coach based on 37 games plus playoffs from a lockout-sliced NBA season more then a decade ago, it’s not really fair to judge him based on the past two years he endured in Minnesota.
Will facilitate for potential
This past summer, David Kahn essentially traded a 2011 second-round pick to the Miami Heat for Michael Beasley. It helped clear cap room for the Heat to acquire LeBron James and Chris Bosh while retaining Dwyane Wade’s services. Yesterday, Kahn jumped into a superstar venue change once again by taking the remaining months of Eddy Curry’s basketball career and the unrequited potential of Anthony Randolph in exchange for Corey Brewer. It helped Carmelo Anthony go to the Knicks.
And this is where the Wolves stand in the NBA. As a fan, we watch other teams get built at our expense while hoping that seemingly busted lottery picks can be galvanized at the Target Center. It’s become the Betty Ford Clinic of untapped, athletic potential.
I know I should be excited about acquiring someone who allegedly has a high ceiling, but I just don’t get it. People used to blame Randolph not becoming a young star because of Don Nelson. Then he moved on to the Knicks and couldn’t find minutes on a team that could really use a young, athletic player with rim-protecting capabilities.
Why should I assume he can put it all together in one of the more complicated offensive systems in the NBA?
The Wolves gave up Corey Brewer. I get that it doesn’t seem like a huge loss for this team and ultimately, it won’t be. He’s a decent role player. He could be a very decent role player on a good team. But you know what you’re going to get with Corey. That’s no longer something you can say about this Wolves roster, outside of Kevin Love’s nightly rebounding barrage.
Randolph will come in and immediately be behind the Wolves' two best players in Love and Beasley. My fear is that if Randolph shows any glimmer of hope in these next couple months, it will give Kahn the excuse to trade away Love to finally get rid of the last remaining Kevin McHale acquisitions (Brewer was second to last). Then he will be left with his own team and another grace period of seeing if potential can be realized.
Kahn has put together a collection of low risk, high reward players. It’s a smart plan in terms of job security. These guys could pan out and become franchise building blocks. If they don’t, they were damaged goods to begin with. It allows Kahn to show he’s gambling for team success without actually putting any money on the table.
Beasley averages nearly 20 points per game. Darko Milicic is third in the NBA in blocked shots. Superficially, these look like wins for Kahn and his regime. But Beasley has given up more points per possession than he’s scored (according to Synergy Sports), and when Darko takes 10 shots or more in a game the Wolves’ already low winning percentage goes down six points (from 23 percent to 17 percent).
None of what Kahn has done in these 20 months on the job has actually led to a more successful team. The team now has more potential, but lots of young, bad teams have had the potential to eventually get better. How often does it seem to work?
The Wolves are putting together a roster of castaway lottery picks. The players can either become really good or they can be repackaged and shipped off for better pieces. But Minnesota needs a team to play facilitator in order to pull that off. They need a team willing to gamble on untapped potential to pretend they’re actually getting better.
Unfortunately, they can’t trade with themselves.
But I have hardly ever bought tickets.
It's not because I don't want to go. It's not even because I can sit in the media section for free. I would like to go with friends and family, and hoot and holler. Instead of wearing starchy business garb at my laptop on press row, it would be fun to do what sports fans everywhere do -- to wear jeans and drink a beer. That difference is worth some money to me.
But not that much money. Holy cow, in a lot of cities to get a pair of reasonably good seats -- not amazing seats, but reasonably good seats -- is something like $300 before parking and beer and all that. Those are prices for corporate customers. People who are entertaining clients. People who are, frankly, writing off the expense.
It has been written a zillion times before: Because of those prices, the crowds at NBA games can be a little stiff. They're in starchy business garb too -- which makes sense, 'cause a lot of those people are there to work. To see and be seen. To impress people. To deal. To look good.
Sports are great ice-breakers. It is a great place to bring a client you hardly know. But if you do that, you are not going to let yourself act like a maniac fan, all delirious, boisterous and tipsy. You're unlikely to wear jeans, or go hoarse.
Cheap tickets would seem to be the only real way to address that.
The Timberwolves are now officially working the cheap tickets angle hard. In March, tickets are as much as half off, and there are even lower bowl season tickets that are ten dollars a game. They say it's going very well. "After one week," the team has announced, "the Minnesota Timberwolves 'Run with the Pack' ticket sales and renewal campaign resulted in the most new season tickets sold by the franchise in a one-week time since the NBA announced a franchise was coming to Minnesota. The team sold 300 new full season tickets during the record-setting week, while also renewing 30% of its current season ticket holders. At the same point last year, the team had only renewed 1.5% of its season ticket holders."
Timberwolves president of basketball operations David Kahn was part of a conversation with the business office that led to the drastic price reductions. "We want to start to re-energize the fan base next year as we start, we hope, a climb," Kahn explains. "It'll be easier to make that climb to the top with a very full, vibrant, loud building. This was an opportunity for us to start to reconnect, and to rebuild the fan base which at one point was one of the most rabid in the League."
Kahn then took a few of my questions about the decision.
A lot of NBA tickets are sold to people with corporate expense accounts, or people who can get tax write-offs for buying the tickets to entertain clients. I can't help but feel that hurts the atmosphere in the building. It's a little starchy, and less loud.
I agree with the overall premise. You want the building to be loud. But I've seen some people in suits and ties be pretty loud. I spent some time in New York. With a 41-game season, it's really hard for a lot of people, in today's society, to attend that many games. So when a business, small or large, buys those tickets, a lot of times it makes sense that they distribute those to all different people.
I don't think it's a case of wanting a certain kind of fan. We want those who are loud and boisterous. If it's your theory that those people tend not to work at businesses, I'm not sure I can ascribe to that. I've seen people in suits and ties be very loud.
I know this. This building was extraordinarily loud at one point, especially when the team made a run to the conference finals in 2004. I think it can return to that, and I think it will return to that. And this is a step toward making it so.
Have you heard from any of the other 29 teams, or the NBA about this? I could see somebody making an argument that you're devaluing the brand a bit. Ten-dollar lower bowl seats could theoretically make $100 lower bowl seats a tougher sell in another market.
The pricing of the very best seats are hardly ten dollars. There's some prime beachfront real estate, and the pricing is still quite expensive by anybody's standards. But the analogy that I've used is to think of the iPhone. Check me on this but I believe when it first came out, it was priced at $399. It came back a year later for $199 and with a better phone. I don't think anybody thought the iPhone had become devalued. It was just a way for it to broaden its usage, and it became even more iconic.
I see this as being a very similar product. Are tickets are being reduced in price in many cases, but I still believe there's enormous value, and hopefully this will mean there are more users.
If you're selling these tickets so cheaply, presumably that hurts how much you could spend on free agents down the road. Does this pricing decision point to the ongoing issues between large and small markets?
I don't want to say anything in defiance of the League's wishes that we stay quiet on collective bargaining. But I'll echo what the commissioner said at All-Star, there should be a more robust revenue-sharing program out of this agreement. I will say though, that having worked at Indiana for nine years, and now here, there's no question that he difference in broadcast markets has an impact on your revenues. I mean, that's just obvious. New York, L.A., Chicago, the Bay Area, they're in the top ten, and especially those first three, have the opportunity to drive revenues that simply don't exist for the rest of us. TV, radio, cable and even new media now ... ticket prices have always been a way for other markets to keep pace, but that's difficult to have that persist over a long period of time, whether there's an economic downturn or not. [In small markets] you ultimately have fewer consumers and have to keep raising prices to keep up.
I'm hopeful that the end result here is that the pricing decrease here will be made up with a fuller building and more buyers, and a better atmosphere for our team and our fans.
And I want to say this to you, really seriously. I get asked this a lot, by people as I travel with the team. How has attendance been this year? I actually think is has been better than I anticipated. I thought it would be a more difficult picture. With the exception of two or three home games, I think it has been reasonably OK. But no question, we can do better, and this is one way to do so.
I guess getting more people in the building can inspire other value for the team. More people who might watch on TV, who might buy some team merchandise, or talk their friends into going to a game.
Absolutely. The best thing for us is for people to be talking about us. This is one of those cases where you can't be anything but please if people are buying the tickets. And the more the merrier. ... And it adds value to every ticketholder. I always used to say, when I was in Indiana, that if the courtside seatholder can look up to the upper deck or the balcony and see those seats filled, it adds value to his ticket. Even though there's no real relationship there, he sees the amount of people who are there, and it confirms the fact that he made a wise choice to purchase his very high-priced ticket.
Only good things can come from a full building.
Ricky Rubio will not play in Minnesota this year. According to several reports and a statement from DKV Joventut, he will instead play for Regal Barcelona, which has negotiated for his rights.
ESPN's Chris Sheridan and Ric Bucher report:
The news came as a blow to Wolves general manager David Kahn, who spent the past several days in Spain negotiating with officials from DKV Joventut, trying to present a worthy counteroffer to the one already on the table from Barcelona for the rights to the 18-year-old point guard.
Joventut had shown itself willing to accept a discount on Rubio's astronomical $8.11 million buyout, with FC Barcelona reportedly offering $5.28 million.
The Timberwolves' offer, which could include only $500,000 in cash under NBA rules, would presumably have revenue streams from Rubio's endorsement deals and his four-year, $15.2 million NBA rookie-scale contract ($3.27 million salary in 09-10, $3.51 million in '10-11, with team options for $3.76 million in '11-12 and $4.76 million in '12-13).
 At a distance: Ricky Rubio is further from the NBA than he was a few days ago. (Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE/Getty Images) |
The Promises of a Young Man
You see those numbers up there? The amount he'd make in the NBA is much more than the buyout Barcelona will pay Joventut. I would need an army of international tax lawyers to confirm this (is his Spanish buyout an untaxed business expense that counts against his U.S. income?), but presumably, we can conclude that even after taxes Rubio would have had income playing in the NBA, even before endorsement income was considered.
Which means he lied to us when he said, in no uncertain terms, that he would play in the NBA for free if his buyout was too much. He was, he said in June, that excited about the NBA.
Now, for whatever reason, things have changed. Can't say I blame him, he's a teenager and all, but this is precisely what I asked him about, and it's precisely what he said he would not do.
In a statement, Kahn sounds a little betrayed, too:
On Saturday night, an agreement was reached between Dan Fegan, the agent for Ricky Rubio, Jordi Villacampa, the president of Joventut Badalona, and myself on behalf of the Minnesota Timberwolves to buy out the last two years of Ricky's contract with Joventut so that he could play in the NBA next season.
While the term sheet was being finalized Monday night, Ricky informed me that, despite considering us his first option the previous weekend - and, admittedly, after some back and forth throughout the summer - he preferred to stay at home to play for FC Barcelona, which earlier this summer had made a buyout offer to Joventut. He also reaffirmed that it was his intention to join us in Minnesota two years from now when he will be 20.
In a conference call Tuesday afternoon, Kahn added that he suspected Joventut would have slightly preferred making a deal with the Timberwolves, as opposed to losing a player to a crosstown rival. But it's clear in Rubio's contract that he would have to agree to any deal, and Rubio preferred going to Barcelona.
We sometimes write about how American teenagers (and their families) are unprepared for the responsibilities of professional basketball. Guess what! They don't have a monopoly on immaturity. I imagine a more mature Rubio would never sign a contract like his last one, that paid him so little but had such a huge buyout. I imagine he'd never again sour fans and waste the efforts of important basketball by saying one thing and doing another. I imagine he'd never again announce the launch of his ship to America while it is still tethered to the dock in Spain.
But these were the errors that are part and parcel of life's natural trial and error. People aren't born knowing how to be international superstars. In his mistakes, he's like many teenagers, and sometimes the system does a poor job of allowing such youngsters to be young, no matter where they're from.
 Here's Jonny: With Rubio in Spain, Flynn is poised to become the soul of the rebuilding Timberwolves. (Nathaniel Butler/NBAE/Getty Images) |
An Educated Guess: Ricky Rubio's First NBA Team Will Not Be Minnesota
Everybody loves Jonny Flynn.
Seriously. He's small and dribbles too much. Those are lethal flaws for many NBA prospects. But Flynn has something uncommon: He blows everybody away when they meet him in person. He eats psychological evaluations for breakfast. He has sit down interviews with GMs for dessert. He is a leader.
I have to believe that, now that Sebastian Telfair and Ricky Rubio are out of the picture, the path is clear for Flynn to drive his way right into the hearts of the underdog Timberwolves and their fans. Kahn says the team will be looking for point guards, but in all likelihood Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Corey Brewer ... even Kurt Rambis ... they are going to be in the foxhole with Flynn day in and day out for the next two years, and whether or not they win, the good bet is that he is going to win their devotion with his relentless tenacity and heart.
Two years is an eternity, and so many things can change. But assuming Flynn was worth a lottery pick, and assuming the Timberwolves are showing positive signs of improvement by 2011, I have to assume that Ricky Rubio will want to play somewhere else, where he has a chance to be the emotional nerve center of the team.
Rubio told me before the draft that making his teammates happy was the best thing about basketball. If his teammates are happy when he's on the bench, that's not going to be a good match.
Kahn says there are far too many variables to predict anything two years from now, but when I asked him about how Flynn's success could change things, he agreed, to a point.
"Today when I met with Ricky, I explained that I can't predict the future. I did specifically mention that Jonny would be two years ahead of him now," says Kahn. "When we drafted him, I felt that, based on his pro experience, if you had a depth chart at training camp, [Rubio] would be the number one point guard. Now that you look at it, it's possible he wouldn't be. ... If Jonny were to develop as you describe, logically if Ricky were to come, he'd come as the backup."
Assuming Flynn is entrenched as the Timberwolves' starter by the summer of 2011, and assuming the Rubio camp will want to be traded to another NBA team, they'll have a ton of leverage to force a trade. They proved today that the lure of the NBA is not everything to them, and Rubio will always be able to make money in Europe.
Reassessing Draft Night
Here and there David Kahn is being painted as foolish for selecting Rubio fifth and then Flynn sixth.
He should have drafted someone who could actually suit up for his team, they say. He shouldn't have drafted two point guards and made the Rubios unsure about Ricky's ro
le. He should have known that Rubio might fall that far and been prepared to realize the value of such a pick. He should have had a better end game in sight.
The truth, to me, is -- in that scenario Kahn's draft night is being judged short-term while it is really a long-term plan. (Not to mention, have you heard David Kahn talk? He is not dumb. Anyone could tell you that.)
But mainly my point is: If you are arguing he should not have taken Rubio, you need to also argue who he should have taken instead. Stephen Curry? Maybe, but you still have the two point guard problem. The same goes for Brandon Jennings. On the wing, where the Wolves have real need, some people love Demar DeRozan, I guess, or Gerald Henderson.
There is no way the Timberwolves needed another non-center big man like Jordan Hill to sit behind Kevin Love and Al Jefferson.
The point: It was tricky. There was no low-risk proposition. You either take Rubio, widely considered to be one of the two or three best prospects in the draft, or you take ... someone with a higher probability of reporting to camp, but a lower ceiling as a player.
And close your eyes a moment and imagine Ricky Rubio, NBA All-Star. If ever that happens, people will then reverse engineer how he got there, and make somebody look like a genius. They don't hand out the rights to all-stars for free, though. What they do hand out for free, however, on draft night, are the rights to players who have chances at becoming All-Stars.
"I still believe this was absolutely the highest and best value pick we could have made," says Kahn. And it's hard to argue with him. Rubio could still be playing in twenty years ... hard to assess his career before his nineteenth birthday.
Whether it means waiting two years or five (Rubio has no obligation to ever come to the NBA) some NBA GM will probably one day benefit from the maturation of Rubio. Kahn is gambling that, either by getting him in a uniform, or trading his rights, it'll be him.
Every Pick is a Gamble
Like everything in basketball, getting Rubio's rights was a gamble.
But having him stay in Spain is not the same as losing all your chips. Now another team has dealt with Rubio's big buyout (replacing it, Kahn says, with a million-Euro buyout in 2011) while also financing Rubio's maturation. The Timberwolves gain a roster spot and cash to use on whatever else they please. He has also probably slightly increased the Timberwolves' chances of keeping their pick in next year's draft (it's protected if it's in the top ten), while offering flexibility to make more moves next summer (as Kahn has suggested).
It might even be better for Rubio's NBA career.
"I was speaking to Coach Rambis as recently as yesterday, and he said that he and a couple of people on his soon-to-be staff were talking about this, and he reported to me that if they could make a list of reasons why [Rubio] should come now and a list of reasons why he shouldn't come now, for our purposes. And that the lists were fairly even. ... He's still so young, the youngest player that was in the draft. ... He'll be 20 years old and two years developed further, I could think of a lot worse things that could happen to us as a franchise. ... This could be the better way to do it."
Rambis and Kahn don't intend to meddle with Barcelona's handling of Rubio, but they have made it clear that it would be great if a priority of the next couple of years were for Rubio to become a deadeye long-distance shooter.
If Rubio matures like that, his stock really will go up, and Kahn will once again look like a genius.
Kahn suggested on draft night that the Timberwolves were more than ready to wait for Rubio to make it to the United States when he could. The guess is that his value will rise, but it's a long-term play. Those plays can look foolish in the short term, but are generally smart -- even if they don't result in Rubio playing in a Minnesota uniform this season, or ever.
In the meantime, Kahn says we're in a waiting period where it may be better to focus on players not named Rubio. "I told Ricky today that he has to understand now that I can't be thinking about him," says Kahn. "He did understand that. It's almost like if a player were injured. You have to just kind of move on. And so tomorrow we move on, if not already today."
On my desk is the Minnesota Timberwolves' newest media guide. It's about ten months old, and still has that "freshly printed" smell.
But I'm about to throw it away. The Timberwolves have changed so much, and so quickly, that the book is almost worthless.
Thirteen of the players, a head coach or two, and the face and brain trust of the team through its first two decades -- Kevin McHale: All gone.
In their place: One of the most profound and rapid rebuilds the NBA has ever seen, highlighted by the frenetic activity of hardworking new president of basketball operations David Kahn. He has ushered in new young players like Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio, a new coach in Kurt Rambis, a small collection of returning players highlighted by Al Jefferson and Kevin Love ... and a thousand questions.
Rookies at point guard, rookies in the executive office, and (but for half a lockout season) a rookie head coach. It's a high-risk, shoot-for-the-moon, long-term approach, which is delightful for what it is not: More of the same.
"I have absolutely no desire," says Kahn, "to build a team that perennially wins 40 to 45 games and scratches and claws for the first round."
In other words, he has no desire to run, well, the Timberwolves.
It's a brand new day for professional basketball in the Twin Cities.
Ripping Right Down to the Studs
David Kahn objects to my saying that he has "ripped the team down to the studs.""I mean," he retorts, "we kept Al Jefferson, we still have Kevin Love ..."
Only later did I think that I should have responded: "You don't think they're studs?"
Call it what you will, but it's certainly a historical bit of redirection. New head coach Kurt Rambis is the team's best-known quantity, but in his current post he boasts 37 games of experience, which took place a decade ago (on top of a more meaningful decade-and-a-half assisting in the front office and on the sidelines).
Upon arrival, Rambis talked a little bit about the team's assets, but more about changing the culture of the team. But how much culture could be left to change? The only Timberwolves who have been around for even just a year are Corey Brewer, Brian Cardinal, Ryan Gomes, Al Jefferson and Kevin Love.
"Amazing isn't it?" laughs Love. "One year, and I'm already one of the old guys."
"We are in the midst of re-building," says team president Chris Wright. "It is no secret that we are not going to be competing for an NBA championship this upcoming season. ... We are going to play our young players and allow them to grow and develop together on the court. Are we going to take some lumps along the way? Sure, we are. But, the only way our young core will continue to improve is to play together and experience first-hand all of the various situations within an NBA game."
Wright declined to offer insight into ticket sales this summer -- last season the Timberwolves famously offered some five-dollar tickets, which was seen as a strong sign of a weak economy -- but he says the media and blog buzz about the team has ratcheted up, while "there is a renewed excitement about Timberwolves basketball here in the Twin Cities."
No current Timberwolf has had time to enter the bloodstream of Minnesota fans the way Kevin Garnett once did. The player with the most minutes played in a Minnesota uniform is 26-year-old Gomes, who has played about 5,000 minutes since arriving in a trade for Garnett. Five thousand minutes is nothing to sneeze at, but, for instance, Kobe Bryant has played nearly 35,000 minutes for the Lakers.
Rambis singled out Jefferson, Love, Brewer, Rubio and Flynn as "nice pieces," to build around. But his decision to leave the Lakers also centered around the length of his contract, the upcoming draft picks and cap room, and promised input into personnel.
Basketball executives and coaches are relentlessly sunny, in public, about the prospects of their teams. Yet on the day he was hired, the coach was talking about long-term projects. Translation: This could take a while.
But there's more to life than one season's win total, and clearly the new management team has owner Glen Taylor's blessing to take some time in redefining the organization, which may well prove brilliant."The singular objective," says Kahn, "is to be a championship-contending team. I don't want to put a time frame on it, but it seems that three to four years is probably realistic."
Kahn spells out that this season will be an exploration of how the existing roster works. Next summer there will be several more new players to be added through the draft and free agency. "2010-2011 could be something of a laboratory, too," says Kahn. "There are so many things that can change, but with the path we're on, I think the third year is the first time we can really expect to make a playoff push."
Counting on Al Jefferson
Al Jefferson, the team's MVP and the star they received in the Garnett trade, flatly rejects that schedule, saying "It shouldn't be no three years."
While hardly bitter, Jefferson is not guzzling the kool-aid of rebuilding either. "I was a little disappointed about Kevin McHale leaving, and also a little disappointed about Sebastian Telfair leaving," he says. "But I understand it's a business, and I understand David Kahn is here to do a job and he's doing it. ... The team becomes part of your family. You get close to guys, and to see them go, it hurts. ... I miss the guys. But you move on, and it's a new beginning."
(Love is similarly cautious in sizing up the new direction, stopping well short of an endorsement: "All the changes ... We just got to sit back and see. Hopefully it will work in our favor.")
Jefferson also rejects the slow rebuild out of sheer confidence. "When you look at how quickly things turned around in Portland," he says, "when they got Brandon Roy and those young players ... it's up to us. We have some young players, but if we do what we're supposed to do we can make this happen faster."
Jefferson is the team's only unquestioned star, but even he comes wrapped in uncertainty. Not only is he recovering from a torn ACL, but he is forced to play long minutes as an undersized center. The team has a shortage of real 5s, and Love needs minutes at power forward. (The only real center on the roster is Ryan Hollins.)
Jefferson says his injury ought not be a concern. After ACL surgery last winter, he's still not cleared for contact, but is scheduled to see the doctor on August 24 and swears he'll be on the court and ready to play by training camp.
Jefferson says he has been "doing everything I was supposed to do, and not doing everything I wasn't supposed to do." To play center, he had bulked up to 285 or bigger last season. This summer, after seeing the team draft speedster point guards Rubio and Flynn, and knowing he'd be running more than ever, he resolved to get back to his rookie weight of 265 (he's at 270 right now).
How does one drop weight while taking it easy on a healing knee? "Easy," he says. "I didn't go home to Mississippi and eat all that fried food. I stayed in Minnesota."
Kahn and Rambis have insisted that the up-tempo style they plan to play can use
Jefferson on the secondary break, or when the team can't run. Jefferson, for his part, says he'll be like Amare Stoudemire, out there running and finishing on the primary break, and he's looking forward to it.
As for Jefferson and Love's coexistence, Rambis bats aside the concern that they can't play together: "Kevin Love and Al Jefferson can definitely play together. They're going to be the initiators of the break, and they're both very, very capable rebounders in this league. As Pat Riley talked about many years ago, no rebounds, no rings."
Both Love (third) and Jefferson (25th) are highly rated rebounders, and Jefferson had the 10th best PER in the NBA last season. His All-Star level of play, combined with a five-year career of playing for rebuilding teams, may make him one of the biggest victims of this latest and most profound organizational redirect.
Jefferson's impressed with Rambis, however: "The No. 1 thing that amazed me was how he left the Lakers. A championship team, probably was going to be the head coach in the next couple of years, who knows? To come here, and to help turn the Timberwolves around, that gained my respect. I just met him today. He already got my respect for that, because a lot of people don't want to come to Minnesota. I'm here and I want to be here, and I want do something this team has never done before, we're going to need all the main pieces to get us there. Bringing Coach here could be the beginning.""The Spanish Kid"
Of the Timberwolves' many summer soap operas, the most closely watched one has been that of fifth overall pick Ricky Rubio (whom Jefferson referred to thrice as "the Spanish kid," and never as "Rubio," in one 10-minute interview). Some suggest the 18-year-old Spanish heartthrob has the potential to be the best point guard of his generation, and are shocked that he lasted to the fifth spot in the draft. Kahn himself expressed delight and surprise at finding Rubio available.
And yet Rubio has yet to sign a Minnesota contract and it's unclear when he will.
Sources indicated his initial reticence at joining a team with Flynn, another highly touted young point guard. More recently, indications are that Rubio's entirely happy to join the Timberwolves, but buyout talks with DKV Joventut, his Spanish team, have not been smooth.
When Rubio was 15, he signed a contract that paid him very little for a professional basketball player -- an annual income of less than $100,000 for most of his time there -- but had a massive buyout clause of 5.7 million Euros, or about $8 million. It is believed to be the biggest buyout in Spanish basketball history.
It remains to be seen if Rubio's lawyers would push the issue, but recognizing that teenagers and their families are ripe for exploitation in negotiating with savvy teams -- it would take decades of work for him to afford the buyout -- Spanish law offers certain protections that may apply in Rubio's case.
Meanwhile, Rubio has long been clear that he intended to go to the NBA, and for a time Joventut made noises, publicly, about a willingness to negotiate should the NBA come calling. (The buyout, in a setting like that, would protect Joventut against richer European teams trying to steal Rubio.) As recently as this summer there was talk of negotiating a severely reduced buyout to help Rubio pursue his NBA dream.
But the more recent storylines in the Spanish press have featured a new uncompromising line from Joventut. Team president Jordi Villacampa recently said that relations had deteriorated and he implied that Rubio would not be welcome to return to play for the team. The Timberwolves are only allowed to contribute $500,000 towards his buyout, so Rubio would seem to have few options beyond haggling further, and deciding how much he can afford to pay out of the roughly $6.8 million he'll be guaranteed from his rookie contract, plus whatever he can get from sponsors.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have been careful not to say anything about limiting Rubio's playing time or role, apparently wary of deflating his NBA aspirations.
"I have a gut feeling, right now, that Ricky would be the starter," says Rambis. "Flynn with his speed and and nastiness as a defender, I see him being a key player off the bench ... but it's not set in stone."
What Rambis says is unlikely, however, is Flynn and Rubio starting together.
Kahn had spun a yarn, since the draft, that Flynn and Rubio could play together, in the backcourt, at the same time, for the long term. "Right now I see them playing a little bit on the floor together, but that will be extremely difficult to do for long periods of time particularly in the Western Conference," says Rambis, "because of the quality of the point guards, as well as the quality 2 guards. Defensively, that'll be a tough matchup for either one of them."
Rambis adds, however, that training camp could prove him wrong. "We want them to get as much playing time and experience as possible. They're going to learn the most about the NBA by being out there on the floor. ... There will certainly be times when they will be playing together. They could certainly prove me wrong."
2010 Offseason: Even More Change
The Timberwolves will spend this season, essentially, getting to know each other.But just when the dizziness wears off, there's every reason to think the roster-shifting will resume. Minnesota is poised for action in next summer's free agent market, and has the potential to have as many as three (or as few as zero) first-round picks:
- Minnesota's own pick in 2010 is owed to the Clippers but is top-10 protected, meaning unless the Timberwolves play well enough to end up with the 11th pick or worse, they'll keep their pick. (Assuming they keep the 2010 pick, however, the 2011 pick is the Clippers' with no protections at all, which could prove painful.)
- Charlotte's pick in 2010, which is protected if it's top 12.
- Utah's pick in 2010, which stays with Utah if it's in the top 15.
"At a minimum," says Kahn, "I expect we'll be $10 or $12 million under the cap in the summer of 2010. If we have that cap space, and we can spend judiciously on a player who will help our team, we are absolutely ready to spend that money."
In deference to that cap space, Kahn says that he will not take on any more contracts that last beyond next summer, and is "pretty much done with major changes to the roster" beyond "some pruning and trimming."
"The biggest change that could be coming to our roster for this season is finding out whether or not we'll get Ricky Rubio this season," he says.
This is the kind of rebuild that many teams are too timid to attempt, and it's fun to see it in action. It'll take years, however, to know whether it's brilliant, insane, or somewhere in between.
For 'Wolves fans, everything is changing. One thing that won't change, however, is that around this time next summer, we'll probably still be talking about how it will take time to see what the Timberwolves will become, and
I'll probably once again be throwing out my Minnesota Timberwolves media guide before it's even a year old.
(Rambis photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images. Al Jefferson photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Rubio photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
Kurt Rambis will reportedly replace Kevin McHale as the head coach of the Timberwolves.
In Game 4 the 1984 NBA Finals, the Celtics needed the win of their season. They had given up home-court advantage and trailed 2-1 to Magic Johnson's Lakers.
Laker forward Kurt Rambis caught a pass on the fast break, and rambled to the hoop down the right side of the lane. After one dribble, and just as he started his layup, Kevin McHale stretched out his long left arm and extended it across Rambis's chest and neck. As Rambis elevated, at a run, McHale pulled backwards, sending Rambis to the floor, hard and horizontal.
It's among the most famous dirty plays in NBA history, and changed the tone of a series that the Celtics went on to win in seven games.
In 2008, Rambis talked about it in an interview with TrueHoop:
There are things that you are not supposed to do. In the heat of the moment, those things do happen anyway, sometimes. You get your competitive fires going. I don't know why it happens, exactly, but players do things they would erase, if they could go back in time.
But you are not supposed to do, for instance, what Kevin McHale did to me when I was in the air. You are supposed to make a play on the ball. There are so many leapers in this league, so many basket attackers. Usually when the defense attacks, they attack the ball, and there might be body contact, but not just body contact.
How ironic then, that David Kahn, the Timberwolves president of baskeball operations (who was in his early 20s at the time) has a chance to symobolically reverse the impact of that 1984 event. Now it is McHale who has been pushed aside, and Rambis who emerges victorious.
What kind of coach would Kurt Rambis be? One can examine the 37 Laker games he coached a decade ago for evidence, but more meaningful might be his own comments. He offered some insight in that same 2008 interview, including:
- On the triangle offense: "If the staff had their druthers, we'd be using the triangle at all times. And I think that any basketball purist would rather see more player movement, more passing, and less dribbling. The result of all that should be a quality shot: a layup, or a wide open jump shot within the player's range. Making that shot -- that just depends on the skill level of the player. But if you end up with a shot like that, the offense has accomplished its job, whether or not it goes in. On the other hand, if a player comes down and misses a shot from three-to-five feet behind the three-point line, they might say they were open, but the answer is 'yeah, but who would guard you out there?' Our objective is to penetrate the defense and find high-quality shots."
- On zone defense: "With the talent level in the NBA, however, where there are a lot of quality shooters, the zone is less effective over the long haul. Those shooters spread out your zone, but the whole idea of the zone is to protect the heart of the court. But if it gets spread out, that opens the middle, and then people can pick the zone apart, get to the seams, move the ball, and attack the back side. So a zone has shock value, but it shouldn't last very long. It also makes it hard to rebound."
- On player development: "I have always thought that we should not try to pigeonhole guys by putting them into specific positions. Maybe it should be more like Europe (although I haven't been to see what they actually do). Maybe we could teach everyone to dribble, pass, and shoot, regardless of size. Teach everyone to play facing the basket, or back to the basket. Teach them how to be basketball players, and then let them gravitate to what they are best suited to do."
- On simple play: "When players do something of transcendent athleticism, the twist, turn, jump, pike, flip, or whatever, and they miss the shot, the crowd goes ooh, ooh, oh. But it's just a missed shot. To me a much simpler way to play the game is better. The beauty is in the ball movement, the passing, and a lot less dribbling."
- On whether he'd like to be a head coach again: "Oh, absolutely. That's what I'm working towards."
Posted by Kevin Arnovitz
Mark Madsen logged only 116 minutes for Minnesota last season, but was the longest-tenured T-Wolf, a presence on the bench for six seasons. He's also one of the league's most expressive players.
In his blog today, he said goodbye to his fans in the Twin Cities:
I wanted to take a minute to tell the fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves a heart felt thank you for all of the support and enthusiasm for the team over the past few years. Even though the past couple of years had been tough from a wins and losses perspective, when I will think of my time in Minneapolis, I will always think about that 2004 team that almost made it to the NBA Finals. At that time, Kevin Garnett was the MVP of the entire league, Sam Cassell was an All-Star and Latrell Sprewell was one of our emotional leaders. I remember during the playoff run that year how driving to and from games was absolutely crazy with part of downtown shut down so that cars could get through. This was all possible because of you, the fans and your amazing support.
From a different standpoint, Minneapolis has come to feel like an absolute second home for me personally. Having grown up in Northern California, I never really knew much about Minnesota until Kevin McHale and Glen Taylor signed me to play for the Timberwolves. Needless to say, the past several years have been some of the best years of my life and I am grateful for the opportunity, the support from the community and the fact that you truly made me feel at home in new place. Thank you for your friendship and for the giving me the chance to play for the team. When friends from out of town came to visit Minnesota I would always take them to the stone arch bridge downtown, the state Capital, or the Mill City Museum. Exploring new parts of the Twin Cities became one of my passions while I was there.
After I learned of my trade to the LA Clippers, David Kahn left me a voicemail and it was great. To you, the fans, David Kahn is going to do a great job as the General Manager. He is going to tirelessly do everything in his power to return the team to the same form of that special 2004 season. And to Glen Taylor, I express my thanks for allowing me to contribute to a great team. I'm sure that you will get the team back to the high expectations that you and the community have for the team. It has been an honor to play for the team over the past number of years and to be part of your organization.
But above all, I want to thank you the fans. I wish all of you the best and I hope that I will see you down the road and perhaps at a Timberwolves vs. LA Clippers game in the future!
The Las Vegas Summer League is a lot like the Sundance Film Festival of the NBA. Whereas the pageantry of most NBA games has gotten out of control, Summer League games are small indie productions. The event certainly has its share of fanfare, but it also allows participants to brush shoulders with some notables they wouldn't ordinarily have access to during the grind of the NBA season. Just as festival-goers at Sundance might find themselves sitting next to an A-List movie star in a cozy bar, it's not unusual for Summer League attendees to sit down in the stands at Cox Pavilion, only to look over and see a high-profile general manager in cargo shorts and flip-flops.
Since team executives, agents, player development personnel, and veterans who've come to watch their younger teammates are all convened in one place for 10 days, Summer League is one big, casual schmoozefest, and a great place to take inventory of the state of the NBA.
What were all those big names talking about in Las Vegas this year? Here were eight hot topics:
A Lot of Competent Players, but Only One Sure-Fire All-Star
Since early spring, the 2009 talent pool has been regarded as a one-man draft. By and large, NBA folks left Las Vegas with that consensus intact. Blake Griffin was the story of Summer League. Though he wasn't able to replicate his explosive 27-point debut, Griffin's 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game stood out. There were other players who matched his statistical output, but few generated the enthusiasm Griffin did among those who got a look at the full roster of rookies. "It's not only his work ethic and competitiveness," said one scout. "It's the balance, athleticism, body, and control. The stuff he can't do yet? It'll happen in no time." When asked how many certain All-Stars would materialize from the class of 2009, interviewees set the over-under barely above one, with Tyreke Evans earning a few votes. Despite the low expectations for stardom, many observers were pleasantly surprised by the depth of solid, if unexceptional, players. The prevailing opinion in Vegas was that the 2009 group is a far cry from the notoriously fruitless class of 2000. Though there was little unanimity, James Harden, Austin Daye, Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, DeJuan Blair, and Earl Clark were all mentioned as possible contributors, or "third options" as one assistant general manager put it. But conversations about potential greatness consistently and almost exclusively returned to Griffin.
 Anthony Randolph: All grown up?
(Photo by Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) |
Summer League play always warrants a disclaimer, because the level of competition falls way short of what guys will confront in an NBA game, but the Warriors' 20-year-old forward seemed almost too advanced for Summer League play. Normally jaded execs and crusty sportswriters alike had their jaws agape watching Randolph command the game when he was out on the floor. Randolph came into the league as a candy dish of disparate talents, but he's graduated from curiosity to crackerjack. He has a band of admirers who gush over his range of talents, and that group got a lot bigger in Las Vegas, as his skill set was on full display. Randolph saw the court, ran the floor, passed the ball, blocked shots, got to the line, and drained mid-range jumpers as well as anyone in Summer League. In his four games, he averaged a Summer League-high 26.8 points per game on 60.9 percent shooting from the floor. He also got to the line 39 times and blocked 12 shots. But it was about more than the stats for Randolph. There's a moment when a player's talents unify into a single, coherent package. Judging from Randolph's performance, that moment has arrived.
The Global Economic Crisis
There's an area behind the near basket at Cox Pavilion where European coaches, general managers, and scouts sit and talk shop during the games. The NBA presents Summer League as a showcase of their future stars, but the real business in Las Vegas is being conducted by these guys, along with the agents and bridge-builders who are trying to get jobs overseas for the less recognizable names on Summer League rosters. Although there wasn't a visible black cloud hanging over this corner of the gym, the anxiety was palpable. They had a lot to be stressed about. Basketball clubs the world over are suffering, but none more than those in Europe. After years of escalating salaries and profits, the market has collapsed. "I've told all my European guys to expect, on average, salaries to go down between 30 and 40 percent," one European agent said. "It's definitely a buyer's market." This dynamic puts pressure on everyone -- the players who are facing a pay cut (even if they're coming off banner seasons), the agents who are terrified to communicate this to their clients out of fear of getting fired, and the teams who still haven't filled out their rosters because they're short on cash. The result is an impasse with neither players nor clubs budging, and a few teams on the verge of economic collapse.
Salary Cap Troubles & the NBA Financial Situation
The international game is in meltdown mode, while the NBA game is suffering from its own set of monetary issues. In Sections 104 and 115, where most of the NBA execs and team personnel sit, the dominant conversation of the week was about the financial pinch NBA franchises are feeling. In his press conference here in Vegas, NBA Commissioner David Stern said that fewer than half of NBA franchises made money last season. Ticket sales, sponsorships, and television contracts are all down. With the salary cap and luxury tax level dropping -- and scheduled to do so for the foreseeable future -- teams are having to calibrate their spreadsheets. This affects everyone: owners, general managers who are under pressure to build legitimate NBA rosters, free agents sitting on the sidelines, their agents, and also the journeymen and undrafted rookies trying to earn a spot on an NBA roster. To save money, a team that would normally carry 15 guys might trim that number down to 13 -- meaning fewer jobs. And players who would've inked rich, multi-year deals are finding that, with some exceptions, they have fewer suitors, with thinner wallets.
The Point Guard Class
Several point guards who came to Las Vegas made strong impressions. Jonny Flynn, despite all the turmoil surrounding Ricky Rubio, stood out. Though many in Vegas questioned the wisdom of playing Tyreke Evans at point guard long-term, few doubted that his strength, size, and capacity to get to the rim would make him a scoring machine. Observers had reserved praise for Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry, the former for his unrefined shot, the latter for looking more like a gunner than a floor general. Some of the mid-first-rounders earned a lot of praise. Dallas' Roddy Beaubois led Vegas point guards in oohs and aahs, zipping through the lane in traffic and filling it up from beyond the arc. Of all the point guards in Las Vegas last week, Darren Collison was among the most polished before going down with an ankle injury. After starting Summer League 1-for-15 from the field, Ty Lawson bounced back to turn in three dominant performances, averaging 23.7 points over that span. Lawson is the kind of point guard who needs to be surrounded by scorers to excel. He'll have that in Denver.
LO, AI, Booz, and the Blazer
s
As much as NBA fans love speculation about trades and free agency, nobody appreciates the rumor mill quite like the NBA chattering class. Talk of the disintegration of Lamar Odom's negotiations with the Lakers provided plenty of fodder for late-night dinners. The same was true of the l'affaire Allen Iverson, where Carlos Boozer may land, and what the Blazers will do with the money they threw at Paul Millsap. The Odom situation was far and away the most intriguing to the insiders. Odom and the Lakers are in the second act of a romantic comedy: They need each other. The Lakers would slip measurably without Odom, and Odom needs the Lakers to solidify his place among the Lakers greats -- or at least the Lakers very, very goods. The Iverson and Boozer matters exemplify the financial issues mentioned above. So far as Portland, few teams run as much informational interference, and even some of the wiliest insiders were stumped about what the Trail Blazers might do.
The Death of the Back-to-the-Basket Game
"Name one guy here who can hit a jump hook over their left shoulder," an NBA assistant general manager asked. "I can't think of one." Whether it's the trickle-down effect of the European game, the rule changes implemented by the league a few years ago, or college teams appropriating Mike D'Antoni-style basketball, the vast majority of the young bigs who were in Las Vegas are face-up players who work either along the perimeter or out of the pinch post: Anthony Randolph, Earl Clark, James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Dante Cunningham, DaJuan Summers, Austin Daye, and even Blake Griffin. Is this a momentary trend, or will the pendulum eventually swing back? "If I were a big man about to enter college, I would develop that back-to-the-basket game," the executive said. The implication: At some point, those skills will be at a premium, and that kid will be impossible to defend. Forward-looking teams are all about buying low and, right now, traditional post players are undervalued because they don't conform to the current climate of the NBA game.
Dysfunctional Organizational Structures Breed Dysfunctional Franchises
What is going on with Minnesota? That was a popular topic of conversation among senior NBA people in Las Vegas. The team still has no coach. Though it had one of the Summer League's most prolific players in Flynn, there's no telling if the system he played in over the 10 days will be the one installed by a new coach -- whoever that might be. This makes the Summer League evaluation process a lot less useful. Who's in charge? CEO Rob Moor? General manager David Kahn? Will the new coach be fully empowered to do his job? Critics also looked at Memphis. How did the Grizzlies end up with Hasheem Thabeet? Because owner Michael Heisley reportedly made the call. The Clippers, too, generated buzz this week with the Iverson speculation. While owner Donald Sterling wants to make a splash with Iverson, Clippers management would like to target Ramon Sessions. These historically beleaguered franchises all have one thing in common: There's no clear hierarchy that allows basketball people to make basketball decisions. The best franchises have well-defined roles that emanate from the top. Owners allow their senior executives to do their job. Those executives give their head coaches full reign, and so forth. Look no further than the San Antonio Spurs.
The Minnesota Timberwolves' new president of basketball operations, David Kahn, created draft night intrigue when he drafted point guards with both the fifth (Ricky Rubio) and sixth (Jonny Flynn) picks.
In the week-and-a-half since, the Timberwolves have held press conferences to introduce draft picks like Flynn and Wayne Ellington, but not Rubio, who has made ambiguous comments about playing for the Timberwolves.
Rubio is under contract in Europe, and would need to negotiate a large buyout from DKV Joventut before he could join the NBA. Since the draft, there has been an uptick in talk that Rubio may stay in Europe for another season or two. Theories differ as to why, with the presence of Flynn, the enormity of the buyout, Rubio's lower-than-expected draft position and the climate in Minnesota chief among them.
Here is some of what Kahn had to say in a phone conversation Tuesday morning:
One of the things that I found surprising was that the day before the draft, Ricky Rubio told us that he was coming to the NBA no matter what happened with his buyout. The first person I heard suggesting that his buyout could be a big obstacle was you, on TV on draft night.
His agent had informed us that day that he might have to play overseas because of the buyout. I just wanted to be clear that we are the kind of team that can afford to wait.
 David Kahn: "The likeliest scenario by far is that Ricky Rubio will be in a Timberwolves uniform. Now, I have always couched my comments on that topic just in case someone floors us with some offer. But I'm highly skeptical that someone will floor us." (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) |
Shortly after you made the picks, I talked to people in front offices for a lot of other teams, and none of them could fathom that your plan would really be to play Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn together.
I'm not a person who believes that every player is neatly packaged and fits with other players only in certain ways. I'm not hard-headed. I think there are lots of different ways players can fit together. ... And this notion that we have to play them together for 48 minutes, I don't expect that's what we'd do. Ultimately, we will have a coach here who will figure out how to best play our players together.
And as for people from other teams telling you this, isn't that a little like me telling you what I think the Toronto Raptors are going to do?
Ricky Rubio didn't come to Minnesota to meet 'Wolves fans, there has been more talk he might play overseas. The people I talked to seem to think that has a lot to do with the presence of Flynn, but not much to do with the buyout, which is seen as something of a red herring, as lots of parties would have an interest in paying that off.
You presume he hasn't been here to visit. ... And as for the suggestion that Flynn being here is a problem, I haven't been told that.
What is the state of his buyout?
I don't know. We're not running the point on that. It's really a question for Dan Fegan.
What about the state of relations between the Rubios and the Timberwolves?
The buyout comes first, right? Not too much can happen until that's taken care of.
Have you been getting a lot of offers for Ricky Rubio?
A lot the week of the draft, yes. But we have stated our position that we are not interested in trading him, and the offers have slowed right down.
What about the idea that the buyout is a red herring?
Does $5.7 million seem like no big deal to you? $5.7 million is nothing to sneeze at.
Your questions are legitimate, but a lot of them are about atmospherics. Right now we're in a stage where Ricky and his family have to figure out what makes sense for them.
What's your best guess as to what's next?
It's very fluid. It's going to be topsy-turvy for some time. We knew stepping into this that it would be a little fuzzy. But there is no concern in my mind about how things have gone so far. He has a significant buyout, and they're sorting through that now.
From reading online, it seems like there has been a lot of excitement among Timberwolves fans. People want to see Ricky Rubio in a Timberwolves uniform. To the extent you do consider trade offers, does this fan reaction drive the price up? If maybe on draft night you would have considered taking player X, do you now want players X and Y?
The politicians always say that you shouldn't answer hypotheticals. I'm going to be like Barack Obama on this one. ... The likeliest scenario by far is that Ricky Rubio will be in a Timberwolves uniform. Now, I have always couched my comments on that topic just in case someone floors us with some offer. But I'm highly skeptical that someone will floor us.
How's the coaching search going?
Great. We're a third of the way through preliminary interviews. There's no time pressure on this process, so we're going to take some time.
Already it seems a thousand articles have been written about the intricate dance unfolding between Ricky Rubio and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
One thing that really impresses me: Minnesota GM David Kahn has skillfully removed the Rubio camp's biggest threat. In any normal situation they would have said give us what we want or we'll stay in Europe. But before the music even really started, right there on draft night, Kahn was assuring everyone that Rubio might stay in Europe and that's just fine. The Timberwolves, he said, are more than willing to wait.
That sends the message to everyone that the Timberwolves are ready for good offers, but not bad ones.
The Rubio camp does still have a big hammer, though, and it's one that has almost never been used.
Rubio can sit out a year, and re-enter next year's draft.
The way the collective bargaining agreement works, the Timberwolves hold Rubio's NBA rights so long as they make him an offer, and he plays professional ball in some FIBA-sanctioned league, which is just about all of the leagues he'd consider playing in.
But if he doesn't play professionally anywhere, then he can be right back in next year's draft.
You can only do this once -- no one can be drafted more than twice.
Clearly, this is an illogical move. To leave his Spanish team, he'd still have a buyout, only now coupled with almost no income at all. (Barnstorming Nike tour, anyone?)
But he could certainly get himself some elite basketball training, maybe a year of being a college student, followed by a career with a team more to his liking. It might at least be worth threatening that, as a way to imbue the Timberwolves with some urgency.
You know what would be just hilarious, though? If Rubio actually did sit out the year, and somehow or another the Timberwolves drafted him again.
We have been teased. As NBA fans, we were told we would get to see Ricky Rubio, one of the most exciting players on the planet, evolve into greatness before our eyes. Now plenty of people are suggesting -- insiders around Rubio, the GM of the team that drafted him, the father of the player himself -- Rubio may be headed back to Europe for a year or two.
 You want me to play where? (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images) |
All this just two days after Rubio stared into the camera and said he wanted to come to the NBA so badly he'd play for free.
Now, instead of elite basketball, we get to watch elite poker. Bluffs, counterbluffs and gamesmanship -- perhaps, as sources suggest, with all parties: Rubio, his agent, and the Timberwolves working together to find a new NBA home for the young point guard.
David Kahn sent a letter to Timberwolves season ticket holders that included this:
With the sixth pick, we selected Jonny Flynn. I truly believe that Jonny is as much a scorer as a playmaker and will thrive playing off of Ricky. I also believe that, together, we will have one of the most dynamic defensive backcourts in the NBA over time. You will love Jonny Flynn. He, too, will be special.
And I also believe that there is a tendency in the NBA for all of us (myself included) to become too formulaic in our thinking. If you think of the Detroit Pistons backcourt during their championship run, with Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars and Vinnie Johnson, or the Celtics with their backcourt of Danny Ainge and Dennis Johnson (and before Ainge there was Gerald Henderson), or the Lakers with Jerry West and Gail Goodrich, or the Knicks with Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe, there are many instances of championship success that is not so paint-by-the-numbers.
It can and will work.
I have talked to sources in several NBA front offices -- and elsewhere -- who are knowledgeable of the situation. Want to know how many of them buy Kahn's reasoning? None. Not one believes it even a little bit. Collectively, the executives rank the likelihood of a long-term Rubio and Flynn tandem at precisely zero.
This game has a lot more cards than may have been immediately apparent. Here's my attempt to frame the game in its current state:
- Rubio's reluctance to go to Minnesota, all agree, probably has not all that much to do with the cold. Lots of NBA cities are cold, and Rubio would be unlikely to delay his dream because of an aversion to a city he has never visited. (Quick! Get him to visit before winter returns in September.)
- There is an idea that had Minnesota traded up to draft him second, instead of fifth, he would have been much happier. Over four years, the difference in income between the second and fifth picks is around $5 million, which roughly approximates Rubio's buyout from DKV Joventut. Executives suggest the buyout is something of a red herring. The team that Ricky Rubio plays for in Spain does not sell a ton of tickets, does not have much of a fan base, and does not make a lot of money. Yet Rubio has global star power. That sets up a dynamic where everyone involved -- Ricky Rubio, his agent Dan Fegan, Nike, David Stern, the Spanish IRS that may or may not hold his contract now, even DKV Joventut himself -- is better off financially if Rubio comes to the NBA where he can realize his star value on and off the court. In the event Rubio can't get those other parties to pay some or all of his buyout, there are plenty of people willing to float him a loan for the difference.
- Therefore, sources suggest that the reason Rubio is not pro-Minnesota is the presence of Flynn.
- Now here's where things get interesting. The conventional wisdom is that teams won't bid high to a GM holding a player he has to move. But sources like Kahn's position for counterintuitive reasons. They suggest his cards aren't bad now, and could improve with time. Rubio would have more value if his buyout was finalized, for instance. Likewise if Rubio's wrist was proven wholly repaired, other teams might be readier with good offers. Even in the scenario where Rubio returns to Europe, he's at an age where he's almost certain to improve. An improved shooting ability, for instance, could set off a frenzy. Meanwhile, the list of suitors could evolve. Through injuries or trades, more teams might find they could use a young point guard, raising his value still further. And the worst-case scenario probably isn't so bad. If the best offers don't come in for Rubio, Kahn could always trade Flynn.
- How's this for playing patient poker? Here's Kahn at a Friday press conference, asked about Rubio's father's comments about staying in Europe: "To the extent that if it means we have to wait a year, we wait a year. If it means two years, two years. He's 18. If we had to wait, god forbid, two years, he'd be 20 when he got here. That's pretty young. The last thing we need to do is become overwrought today. The way I look at it, this was a gift. I didn't see any plausible scenario this occur. When you also want to examine it from the standpoint of the Foye/Miller trade, we trade Randy and Mike in the last year of their contract for Ricky Rubio."
- Kahn has an unusual asset: No coach. Kahn said in a press conference that "one thing I'll guarantee you: It won't be an easy ride. It'll be a bumpy ride." As Kahn fields offers from other teams for Rubio, he can convincingly tell them that if Rubio stays in Europe, it's no big deal to him. So the Wolves might lose a few more games. It'll help their long-term strategy. On any normal team, the person who would be irate when expressing a willingness to lose games would be the coach. But there is no coach to worry about. If he wants to, Kahn can make a strong case that what happens this coming year is of no real concern.
- Several teams remain eager to employ Rubio, and Kahn has been frank that he has been fielding offers. Worth noting is that in Indiana, for years, Kahn worked very closely with ... current Knicks honcho Donnie Walsh. And the Knicks are one of the teams that is said to be most enamored with Rubio (although it's very hard to imagine what the Knicks could offer of equivalent value). The point: Minnesota fans know personal ties can play a role in big trades.
- If anyone is to blame for the dilemma, how about the Kings' front office? The Kings need someone to distribute the ball. The Kings need perimeter players who play defense. The Kings need someone to sell tickets. The Kings had the fourth pick, and the sun. Yet they passed on Rubio. Much to Minnesota GM David Kahn's surprise, Rubio fell all the way to the fifth pick, where he was blatantly too talented to pass up. And of course, Minnesota also had the sixth pick, which means Kahn barely had any choice at all. If you're attempting to rebuild a franchise on the fly, you can't very well pass on Ricky freaking Rubio twice, and let him fall to seventh. What's the likelihood Rubio becomes an All-Star? 30 percent? 60 percent? Whatever the number is, that's about the same likelihood David Kahn would have become an NBA laughingstock if he hadn't take Rubio.
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