TrueHoop: Dirk Nowitzki

Pacers' starting five is punishing the Heat

May, 18, 2012
May 18
1:32
PM ET
By Ryan Feldman
ESPN.com
Archive

Michael Hickey/US PresswireThe Pacers starting five has given LeBron James and the Heat fits in the first three games.
The longer the Indiana Pacers can keep their starting five on the court, the better chance they have to eliminate the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Indiana’s starting five of Paul George, Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, George Hill and David West has been the most successful five-man lineup in this year’s postseason. It has a better plus-minus, has scored more points and has a better rebounding margin than any other five-man lineup in the playoffs.

In eight postseason games, Indiana's starting five has outscored its opponents by 79 points and outrebounded them by 68.

During the regular season, George, Granger, Hibbert, Hill and West started just eight games together, and the Pacers were 7-1 in those games. They played just 229 minutes together and outscored their opponents by 72 points.

In the playoffs, they’ve already played together for 176 minutes, and the formula continues to be successful.

This postseason, Indiana’s starting five:

• Has more than double the second-chance points (70) of any other five-man lineup. (Second are the Lakers and Magic with 30.)

• Leads all lineups in points in the paint (152) and points off turnovers (58).

• Has outscored its opponents by 56 points in the paint (152-96), has 30 more second-chance points (74-44) and 18 more fast-break points (42-24).

When George, Granger, Hibbert, Hill and West were on the court in Game 3, they outscored the Heat 68-40.

The starting five shot 52 percent from the field (including 6-of-10 on 3-pointers) and outrebounded the Heat 32-15. That lineup held the Heat to 33 percent shooting from the field and 1-of-10 on 3-point attempts. They also outscored the Heat 13-0 on second-chance points.

Every other Pacers lineup was outscored by nine.

Since the 2008 playoffs, only four lineups have finished with a plus-minus that’s been as good as Indiana’s +79. Three of those teams reached the NBA Finals and two won the NBA championship, including the Mavericks’ lineup last year of Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry.

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.

Flop of the Night: Dirk Nowitzki

May, 1, 2012
May 1
11:39
AM ET
By Beckley Mason and Zach Harper
ESPN.com
Dirk Nowitzki
Brett Deering/Getty Images Sport
Dirk Nowitzki knows plenty of tricks when it comes to drawing fouls.

HoopIdea wants to #StopTheFlop. To spotlight the biggest fakers, we present Flop of the Night. You can help us separate the pretenders from the defenders -- details below:

Poor Derek Fisher.

Flopping in the playoffs is supposed to be his thing! But Monday night, Dirk Nowitzki showed Fisher a thing or two by convincing officials that the 6-foot guard actually chucked Dirk out of bounds in pursuit of a fourth quarter rebound.

Here he is pulling the same trick in last year's Finals.

Nowitzki is a master at drawing contact when looking to score and a master of conjuring the appearance of contact when he's going for a rebound.

With just three minutes remaining in Monday night's game, Fisher's foul put Nowitzki on the line for two shots to bring Dallas within one point of the Thunder. Of course, the Thunder went on to prevail thanks to eight straight free throws of their own, but moments like these show how flopping threatens the outcome of important games.

There's very little downside for Dirk to flop in that situation, no negative recourse other than that it might take him out of the play for a moment or two. But if he gets the call and can make the free throws, his team is two points closer to stealing home court advantage. As much as we respect the gamesmanship and skill of a player like Nowitzki, do we really want the most important games of the season decided this way?

When you see an egregious flop that deserves proper recognition, send us a link to the video so we can consider it for Flop of the Night. Here's how to make your submission:
  • Alert HoopIdea to super flops with the Twitter hashtag #FlopOfTheNight (follow us on Twitter here).
  • Use the #FlopOfTheNight hashtag in Daily Dime Live.
  • E-mail us at hoopidea@gmail.com

Killer Lineup: Dirk and the D

March, 21, 2012
Mar 21
1:44
PM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive



Dallas Mavericks
PG Jason Kidd | SG Vince Carter | SF Shawn Marion | PF Dirk Nowitzki | C Brendan Haywood
Minutes Played: 154
Offensive Rating: 107.4 points per 100 possessions
Defensive Rating: 84.6 points per 100 possessions

How it works offensively
It would be insulting to call the Mavericks' offense rudimentary, but when you cue up the tape and watch a stream of possessions with this group of guys, one thing is so readily apparent:

They make basketball easy.

There's rarely a wasted movement or pass, and each time this Dallas unit crosses the time line, it has a singular purpose: It wants to extend your defense -- and it's going to use Dirk Nowitzki to do it.

It all starts with feeding Nowitzki at his favorite spot on the right side of the floor. Ever since Karl Malone retired, we've heard coaches and analysts refer to the "Karl Malone area" just off the mid-left post. Pretty soon, the "Dirk spot" off the right elbow will become commonplace for basketball commentators and geographers.

Most nights, the Mavs have a matchup advantage with Nowitzki, and they'll get him the ball promptly with either a quick entry pass or a pick-and-pop. Against more advanced defenses -- or just to switch things up -- Kidd will run a little misdirection on the left side (maybe with Shawn Marion), while Brendan Haywood frees up Nowitzki by pinning his defender with a down screen.

Once Nowitzki has the ball in his hands, he can feast on a shorter or less-capable defender. He'll bounce off his left foot, kick with his right and drain fadeaways from that spot all night.

Send a double-team at Dirk, and the gamesmanship begins. Nowitzki is 7 feet tall and he's been doing this basketball thing for a while now, so an extra defender doesn't faze him. Send that guy from the top of the floor, and Nowitzki will find Vince Carter or Kidd.

The Vinsanity ended a long time ago, but Carter is still capable of hitting a wide-open shot or attacking a rotating defender. As for Kidd, whose long-range shot is just beginning to reappear after its prolonged absence, he'll either attempt an open jumper or, more often, quickly identify where there's an opportunity.

Marion is the wild card on the floor for this lineup. After many seasons as a freakishly athletic curio with a wonky release on his shot, something interesting has happened -- Marion has become one of the more indispensable two-way players in the game in the half court. When Nowitzki creates defensive chaos for opponents, Marion is often the guy who will read the floor and exploit an opening. Sometimes, it's a backdoor cut along the baseline to the rim, where Kidd, Carter or Nowitzki will find him. Other times, Marion will rub his defender off a teammate at the left elbow, catch the ball on the move and finish.

There are plenty of other reliable options for this unit in the half court. They like to use a pick-and-roll on the left side between Kidd and Haywood, with Carter as a post option against smaller defenders. Haywood gets a few duck-ins because teams are often forced to rotate to Dirk from the baseline, or just choose to take their chances by playing off the center.

This unit still hasn't played 200 minutes together, as Haywood's playing time varies. Ian Mahinmi continues to develop, while Haywood has coped with a series of nagging injuries (he's currently suffering from a mild knee sprain).

How it works defensively
Just so we understand -- the best defensive unit in basketball includes a 38-year-old point guard, an aging Carter (who, even in his prime, never cared all that much about D) and Nowitzki?

Crazy as it sounds, that's right -- there isn't a lineup in the NBA that has played more minutes and given up fewer points per possession than this five-man unit.

So how does this work exactly?

Step 1: Assign Marion to the opponent's most important offensive facilitator -- whether that person is a point guard, slasher, sharpshooter or multitalented power forward. Marion is a lanky and intuitive defender who's hyperaware of where you want to go and how you want to get there. Those long arms shrink passing lanes to the size of a coffee stirrer and he's difficult to post up.

The luxury of matching up Marion one-on-one against the most dynamic player on the floor allows the rest of the Mavericks to stay at home as base defenders. This isn't a fast group, so there's not a lot of gambling and you'll rarely see a lot of aggressive fronting. What this unit does exceptionally well is communicate. Kidd is constantly scanning the floor for potential problem areas and will shout out instructions to Haywood the instant there's penetration.

Carter is an underrated post defender in the half court, and he's more than capable of bodying up against most wings. Size doesn't slump, so while Nowitzki might not earn a lot of votes for the NBA's all-defensive team, he's taller than most of his counterparts at the 4-slot. And though he might never be Kevin Garnett, Nowitzki's pick-and-roll defense is smart and efficient. He doesn't overextend himself jumping out and he's always thinking recovery.

Haywood isn't the planet's most aggressive pick-and-roll defender -- rather than a hard show, the Mavs' coverages seem to have Haywood defending those actions "flat" -- but his big body and long arms buy Kidd, Carter and Marion plenty of time to get back into a play. Haywood is also a quality rim protector who slides along the baseline with relative ease.

This unit will throw the occasional zone at an offense to stifle penetration, but its most defining characteristic is collective smarts. This lineup doesn't make many mistakes. Despite a lack of speed, they rarely foul and manage to amass a ton of turnovers by simply anticipating where the offense wants to go with the ball. When shots go up, fewer than one-fifth of them are collected by the offense for second-chance opportunities.

Come April, we constantly hear how it's the veteran teams -- not the most athletic ones -- that win rings. This unit of oldsters illustrates why.

The 2012 All-Flop Teams

March, 20, 2012
Mar 20
2:49
PM ET
Mason By Beckley Mason
ESPN.com
Archive
When Shane Battier, the patron baller of HoopIdea, called out former teammate Luis Scola for being one of the most accomplished actors in the league, it got us thinking: Who are the most egregious floppers around?

We asked the TrueHoop Network for help, and the result is our first ever All-Flop Teams.

FIRST TEAM

Chris Paul, PG: Paul quickly emerged as the consensus Most Floppy Player. As this video from Daily Thunder’s Royce Young shows, Paul is truly a fantastic two-way talent. Graydon Gordian elaborates, “I think Royce's video demonstrated two really distinct things Chris Paul does: (a) He stops dead in his tracks, backs up into a player who's behind him and then falls forward, and (b) he maintains possession of the ball and/or makes a pass while going to the ground. He doesn't lose the ball when flopping, which lots of guys do.”

Raja Bell/Manu Ginobili, SG: Controversial decision to include both of them here, but really these two have given so much to the game. Manu with his whiplash-inducing head thrashes as he drives to the basket and Raja Bell with his ability to be thrown backwards by the slightest of contact. Here’s the Raja-Manu mixtape of floppery.

Paul Pierce, SF: Pierce is another two-way player who isn’t afraid to artistically embellish any contact (real or imagined) with a sometimes ludicrous flourish.

Luis Scola, PF: Battier put it best: “The more hair you have, the better. My boy Luis Scola, he’s got that long hair and when it gets sweaty and he starts flopping and flailing, it looks like he’s getting murdered out there.”

Ben Wallace, C: Writes Patrick Hayes of Piston Powered: "Wallace is adept at going for rebounds in heavy traffic, but he also uses that traffic to his advantage. If a shot is missed and he doesn't have a great angle to get to it, he's patented a move where he jumps forward and lurches his body while simultaneously letting out a loud 'OOOPH,' which over the years has pretty regularly convinced officials he was pushed in the back. Often, video evidence suggests otherwise. Wallace's artful flopping on rebound attempts has been just another valuable skill he's brought to the Pistons that doesn't show up in his stats. Oh, and don't ever mention to him that he flops ... he doesn't like that.”

SECOND TEAM

Rajon Rondo, PG: Rondo’s habit of throwing himself into a defender 50 feet from the hoop and firing off a prayer as time expires isn’t why he’s a celebrated flopper. It’s because, as Brendan Jackson of Celtics Hub noted, he’ll fall over as a defense mechanism whenever he gets in trouble with his dribble, especially along the baseline. (Also receiving votes: Tony Parker, Derek Fisher, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups.)

Jamal Crawford, SG: A unique flopper, as Kevin Arnovitz explains, “There's a reason Jamal Crawford holds the all-time NBA record for 4-point plays. As the sharpshooter elevates and releases his shot, he'll gracefully hinge his hips forward, kick his legs into his defender and often land on his tuchus in the process.” (Also receiving votes: Dwyane Wade, James Harden, Kobe Bryant.)

Corey Maggette, SF: Ethan Sherwood Strauss paints us a picture of a typical Maggette flop: “Two dribbles hoop-ward and he’s already leaning for contact. It’s an offensive foul, or at least it would be were it not for Corey’s sleight of hand. Somehow this ball of muscles flies backward from the 'contact.' It’s a visual trick -- Maggette uses an off arm to redirect his body movement. The ball? That thing’s flying into the stands, chased by the sound waves of Corey’s wounded animal bleat.” (Also receiving votes: Kevin Durant, Vince Carter, Nicolas Batum.)

Dirk Nowitzki, PF: Dirk is a do-it-all flopper. He can flop while driving, shooting, playing defense and rebounding, perhaps the most underrated facet of his flop game. Dirk may never jump higher than when he’s flying away from a rebound after a “nudge” in the back. (Also receiving votes: Blake Griffin, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan.)

Reggie Evans, C: Evans has a reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the NBA, but don’t try any of that stuff on him. Reggie can induce whistles with the best of them, but only while doing the only things he does well on the court: setting screens, rebounding and exchanging elbows under the rim. (Also receiving votes: Marc Gasol, JaVale McGee.)


One thing you'll notice is that this list contains almost every great player in the league. That's not an accident, part of excelling in the NBA is being able to manipulate officials to benefit your team.

It's not that players are sneaky or devious, they're just pragmatic. The system won't penalize flopping and will sometimes reward it, so what's the downside?

So let's change the system. What kind of penalties for flopping would you like to see, and how would they be implemented?

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

You can give us your ideas and talk with us and other fans in the following places:
And for the truly ambitious: Shoot a short video of yourself explaining your HoopIdea, upload it to YouTube and share the link with us on Twitter or Google+.

From diamond to hardwood: lessons in data

March, 9, 2012
Mar 9
2:55
PM ET
Haberstroh By Tom Haberstroh
ESPN.com
Archive
Dirk Nowitzki
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Dirk throwing out a World Series first pitch isn't the only crossover between baseball and basketball.

What’s happening now in the NBA happened to the MLB about five years ago.

There’s no denying that the basketball world sits on the brink of a data explosion. A good chunk of the basketball community -- NBA execs, writers, students, casual observers -- who attended this past weekend’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston left with a feeling of fiery anticipation of what’s on the horizon.

Thanks to an invasion of super-fancy technology and tracking devices like STATS LLC’s SportVU, the basketball community is on the verge of something big and scary and wonderful. SportVU is a camera system being installed in NBA arenas that will track every movement on the basketball court. The ball, the 10 players, the referees, flying bats, everything. All of it will be digitally tracked and the results will be spit out in a report that features about a million data points per game.

These are exciting times in the sport and there’s no question that it can feel daunting as well. But we’re not alone in this journey. Because about a half-decade ago, a tidal wave of data plowed through another sport, baseball, and it’s never been the same since.

There’s a SportVU already in place for baseball and it’s called Pitch f/x. Back in 2007, a similar technology that is crashing the hardwood already hit the baseball diamond and it has altered the way analysts, teams, writers and fans digested the so-called national pastime. Since then, other products from the Pitch f/x company, Sportvision, have arrived on the scene. Pitch f/x tracks pitches, Hit f/x tracks batted balls, and Field f/x tracks the player movement on the field.

Stat geeks -- and I say that with the utmost respect for fellow numerically-slanted brethren -- pounced on the data and tirelessly crunched the numbers so we could make fun charts that you see in the mainstream today. Or instead of looking at batting average rankings, we can now glance at FanGraphs to see which starting pitcher’s slider has the most horizontal movement. And that’s just what’s out in public.

But the data wasn’t useful for just the nerds. Nowadays, in the palm of your hand, fans can follow a Dodgers-Giants game and learn just how fast Tim Lincecum threw his blazing 0-2 pitch to Matt Kemp, precisely how many inches it broke before it reached the plate and where it hit the catcher’s mitt. Not only that, you can watch an animated trajectory of the pitch within a few seconds after the pitch is released from Lincecum’s hand. All on your handy smartphone.

We don’t have anything like that in the NBA, but if you’re looking into the future of the basketball, take a glance at what’s going on in the MLB. Depending on who you ask, it appears that the baseball world, at least in sheer volume of data and what they’re doing with it, is about 5-10 years ahead of the basketball world. We’re catching up though, thanks to SportVU, Synergy Sports Technology and other tracking services.

So what can we learn from the baseball world?

1. Patience is a virtue
After talking to baseball folks in and around the game, it’s imperative that we preach patience. The revolution will not happen overnight. Having the data and being able to do something meaningful with it are two very different things. And it takes time.

Consider this. According to SportVU, each game produces about 800,000 data points for every game. There are 1,230 NBA games played in a full 82-game season (remember those?). Use the trusty multiplication function on your calculator and you’ll discover that we’re talking 984,000,000 data points in a regular season. Throw in the playoffs and we’re getting into the trillions. And you thought the box score had a lot of numbers.

The lesson is that there will be times early on where ambitious writers can find trends on the spreadsheet surface and do something about it. Take for instance Fangraphs and ESPN Insider writer Dave Cameron, who wrote to the Mariners pitching coach and asked him to let Felix Hernandez know that he throws too many fastballs early on, something he discovered playing around with the data. And it worked. Cameron, through Pitch f/x data, actually altered Hernandez’ pitch selection. Something similar could happen with say, Kevin Durant and his shot selection, but it’s going to take months and possibly years before we get to that place.

2. Computer geeks are the new market inefficiency
There’s a reason why Mike Zarren, the assistant general manager of the Boston Celtics, actually announced to the audience during the Basketball Analytics panel at Sloan that he was looking to hire someone who can build and manage a database from scratch. This really happened. As expected, a stampede of super-smart computer programmers and SQL experts rushed over to Zarren after the panel. Zarren survived. I think.

These quants are in demand. More of this will happen in the NBA and that wave has already happened in baseball (just look at the alumni list of Baseball Prospectus and Hardball Times stats guys – several are with teams now). When Pitch f/x fell into their laps, MLB clubs scooped up computer geeks faster than you can say, “Troy Tulowitzki.”

Because when you look at it, there’s a five step process that NBA teams will adopt in the coming years: Acquire the data, harness the data, analyze the data, translate the data, apply the data. Those last two steps might be the trickiest but the first three tasks will be the jobs of computer geeks. Sure, we could come up with tons of fun, but mostly trivial superlatives (who throws the fastest fastball? Which center jumps the highest for rebounds?) just by sorting a column in the spreadsheet. But the more important stuff comes when you have geophysicists trying to build a model that can detect how Jamie Moyer’s arm angle changes for off-speed pitches (the Rays actually did this very thing prepping for the World Series).

3. The myth of scouts vs. stats
With this data in hand, soon we’ll begin to answer questions like: Who’s the best shooter when given a foot of space to fire off his shot? Who tallies the most hockey assists in the game? Who is the most frequent dribbler across the league? Who’s the slowest baseline-to-baseline player in the game?

We could dabble in those questions from now until the end of time, but really, what can you do with that information? With data analysts, we can answer the “what” part of the question, but often times, the “why?” part is the one that matters. Sure, it could be helpful to know who scores the most when entering the paint, but diagramming and preparing for that is what will end up changing the NBA landscape.

And in order to apply the kernels of data, there needs to be a conversation with the scouts and the coaching staff. When the rise of pitch f/x and data analysts didn’t make scouts extinct; they brought them closer together. If a computer geek discovers that Jonathan Papelbon’s curveball generates more swings and misses on the outside part of the plate, good luck trying to tell him how to pitch. That’s where the scouts and managers (or coaches) come in. If they don’t listen or embrace the data, then how will the team ever get any use out of it?

Quants won’t replace advanced scouts in the NBA, just like they didn’t in MLB. It’s all about the quest for information. That’s why at the Baseball Analytics panel at Sloan, the father of sabermetrics Bill James was probably just as eager to hear what former baseball player Rocco Baldelli had to say as Baldelli was to hear James speak. It's a two-way street. Every team seeks information in all shapes in sizes because every team craves that next competitive edge.

The NBA will look a lot different in 2017 when SportVU and other technologies take their place in the game. But as we’re learning in baseball, there will always be a seat at the table for both scouts and the stats. We’ll never have perfect knowledge of the sport, but with a wave of data in our sights, we’re probably moving in the right direction toward that unreachable ideal.

Superman, 3-pointers fly for Magic

February, 9, 2012
Feb 9
3:07
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com
Archive
Dwight Howard became the first NBA player this season to record a double-double in the first quarter on the way to finishing with 25 points and 24 rebounds as the Orlando Magic beat the Miami Heat.

It was the sixth 20-20 game of the season for Howard. No other player in the league has more than two such games, and the rest of the league has combined to only match Howard’s total. That’s not a unique position for Howard; during the 2008-09 season, he had nine 20-20 games while the rest of the league combined for eight.

Howard doesn’t often shoot from behind the arc, but he did attempt his fifth 3-pointer of the season on Wednesday. He wasn’t the only Magic player to go long-range in the game. Orlando attempted a franchise-record 42 3-pointers. The Magic were the fifth team since the 1996-97 season to attempt more shots from 3-point range than inside the arc in a single game.

Stop the Lin-sanity
Jeremy Lin continues to take New York by storm. In his second NBA start, Lin scored 23 points and dished out 10 assists to finish with his first career double-double to lead the New York Knicks pas the Washington Wizards.

Lin is the first player since LeBron James in 2003 to score at least 20 points and hand out at least 8 assists in his first two NBA starts. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only five players have done it since the merger. Greg Anthony (1991-92), Negele Knight (1990-91) and Billy McKinney (1978-79) were the other three.

Even before he moved into the starting lineup, the Knicks offense had been much better with Lin on the court than sitting on the bench. New York scores nearly 12 more points per 48 minutes with Lin on the court, with most of the difference coming due to getting open shots in the paint.

Statistical Feats of the Night
The Houston Rockets bench outscored the starters 66-37 in the team’s win at the Portland Trail Blazers. The 66 bench points tied for second-most in the NBA this season, behind the 68 scored by the Dallas Mavericks against the Sacramento Kings on Jan. 14.

Tony Parker was 12-for-24 from the field and 13-for-13 from the free-throw line against the Philadelphia 76ers. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last Spurs starting guard to make at least half his field-goal attempts and convert all his free throws in a game (minimum: 10 made FG and FT) was George Gervin during the 1983-84 season.

Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 points, his third straight game with at least 24 points after only topping that mark twice in his first 19 games this season. Nowitzki moved past Adrian Dantley into 21st on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.

Chase Budinger
Budinger
Plus-Minus Note of the Night
All 10 starters for the Rockets and Trail Blazers finished the game with a negative plus-minus. All five Rockets bench players finished in positive territory. Chase Budinger, who scored a game-high 22 points, recorded a game-high plus-15. Jamal Crawford, who led the Blazers with 21 points off the bench, was the only Portland player to avoid a minus, finishing at plus-8.

Doubting Dallas

December, 29, 2011
12/29/11
4:57
PM ET
Mason By Beckley Mason
ESPN.com
Archive
Last year Jason Terry had the audacity to get the Larry O’Brien Trophy etched into bicep.

Last year Tyson Chandler and assistant coach Dwane Casey elevated the Dallas defense to elite levels.

Last year Dallas raced to a blistering 24-5 record before stumbling over Dirk Nowtizki’s twisted knee and limping into the playoffs with a three seed.

Last year the Dallas Mavericks made fools of those who scoffed at the notion of the Mavericks escaping a first round matchup with the feisty and physical Portland Trailblazers.

This year Jason Terry can touch the real life Larry whenever he chooses.

This year Tyson Chandler and Dwane Casey are gone--Chandler for a fat check in the big city and Casey for a long overdue chance to coach his own team.

This year Dallas is 0-2, spanked twice by playoff teams, and faces another hungry foe in the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

This year Dallas might not make the playoffs.

---------

NBA Champions often return from the offseason without the sense of urgency and all-consuming drive that took them to the top. Pat Riley called it “the disease of more.” His theory was that after winning a ring, the ultimate team accomplishment, players tend to look inward to their own goals of more playing time, more shots and more money.

It’s always tricky to speculate on the psyche of players thousands of miles away, but even from farflung couches one can see that this Mavericks squad has a severe and perhaps untreatable case of the disease of less--less talent and less belief. With little practice time and a bunch of new players, the Mavericks also have less time to right the ship.

Despite how devotedly Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd bail out the the boat, water will continue to flood the hull.

Riley’s theory is conveniently player-focused. It wasn’t his fault that the players he coached or signed couldn’t muster the requisite competitive zeal. But what is happening in Dallas is a direct result of front office personnel decisions that have almost nothing to do with this season or even last season.

For example Tyson Chandler had the best offensive rating in the NBA during last season’s regular season and playoffs. Simply put: when Chandler was on the court, the Mavericks scored more points per possession than did any other line up on any other team. As you might expect, Dallas’s most consistent defensive lineups also included Chandler.

Was $14.5 million per year over four years too high a price to keep a 29 year old center with 10 years on his injury prone legs? Maybe not, if the goal is to make a great run at winning again this year.

What about José Juan Barea, DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler--three overpriced (well, not Stevenson) but useful wing players Dallas let walk for nothing. On-court chemistry was an important part of what made Dallas special last year, but keep in mind that the graves of former champions are dug with imprudent signings of replacement value players.

These moves make perfect sense if the off-season goal isn’t to reload for a repeat run at a ring but to scrub your cap sheet in hopes of landing Dwight Howard or Deron Williams in 2012.

That’s probably a wise decision. Williams grew up in Dallas and Howard scribbled the Mavs on his shortlist of places he’d like to play. Nowitzki needs a stud to play with in the twilight of his career, and both would be a fantastic compliment to the sweet-shooting big man. Even if neither ever wear a Maverick uniform, Dallas will still have about $25 mil to bring in better talent next year.

But think about how these decisions must appear to players like Jason Kidd and Lamar Odom.

Kidd is still capable but has spent more time playing against some of the other coaches in the league than he has against the likes of Derrick Rose. He’s old and he’s aware that he doesn’t have many more seasons left. Now he’s toiling in what is in effect a stop-gap season.

Odom went from a perennial contender that always made the big move to put itself in finals contention to a team that is obviously renting him for one season to free up cap space. He’s gone from 6th Man of the Year and rotation player for the league’s best franchise to a player whose primary value is that you don’t have to pay him for more than one year.

Even Nowitzki, he of tireless work ethic, mentioned that his motivation was down following the euphoria of his brilliant playoff run and subsequent slog at the Euros.

In their first two games of the season, the Mavericks’ characteristically sharp passing and incisive offense haven’t just been rusty, but dull.

It’s not possible to quantify spirit, but the their struggles so far are nothing so esoteric as “wanting it.” They just don’t have as many good players and this happened on purpose.

The message that Mark Cuban has been trying to spin is that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was the impetus for him gutting Mavericks roster. He told Dallas radio that “this is 100 percent about the CBA and understanding the impact it will have on the market."

That may be true, and it may very well be the smart play. But the the message to the entire team and coaching staff was “do your best this year, but your immediate success isn’t really our main concern.”

When, rightly or wrongly, the management views the current season as an afterthought, it must be difficult to muster the focus and passion that make last year’s Mavericks so special.

Beckley Mason is the founder of HoopSpeak. You can follow him on Twitter at @BeckleyMason.

Monday Bullets

December, 19, 2011
12/19/11
1:25
PM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive
  • Classmates of Kim Jong Il's son, Kim Jong-un, testify that the presumed successor in North Korea wasn't all that interested in politics when he was at school in Switzerland. What really got him going was basketball. "He worshipped basketball players in the NBA. A friend who visited his apartment at #10, Kirchstrasse, Liebefeld, recalls that Kim had a room filled with NBA-memorabilia. 'He proudly showed off photographs of himself standing with Toni Kukoc of the Chicago Bulls and Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers. It is unclear where the pictures were taken. On at least one occasion, a car from the North Korean Embassy drove Pak Un to Paris to watch an NBA exhibition game,' the [Washington Post] said. In class, Pak Un was generally shy and awkward with girls, but he became a different person on basketball court, according to his classmates. 'A fiercely competitive player,' said classmate Nikola Kovacevic. 'He was very explosive. He could make things happen. He was the playmaker.'"
  • Michael Pina of Red94 composes a stellar post on the psyche of trade bait. There are those, like Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups, who take it a little personally. Others, like Lamar Odom, are driven to tears. Then there are Luis Scola, Rajon Rondo and Pau Gasol, who are able to convey detachment -- at least publicly.
  • The Heat have pledged to switch up their offense this season by incorporating more fast-break attacks and putting more of a premium on spacing. Beckley Mason of HoopSpeak exchanges with a reader who explains what "the Invert" offense in lacrosse can teach us about defending the Heat.
  • Charlie Widdoes of ClipperBlog feels the Clippers gave up too much for Chris Paul, and that staying the course with Eric Gordon and the salary flexibility that would've come with Chris Kaman's expiring contract was the right call.
  • Aaron McGuire of Gothic Ginobili on the composition of the reigning champions in Dallas: "So where does that leave you? A short stint with a lineup where Lamar Odom is the primary ballhandler, employing Dirk and Marion as roll men with Delonte and Carter in the wings if the play goes sour? Does the team manage a point-by-committee sort of strategy? And who defends what? Dirk’s defense has gotten better over the years, but at this point Odom is essentially the best defensive talent in the Mavs’ big rotation. Do you cross-match Odom on the opposing center and hope he can draw them out of the paint? Do you keep Dirk at center and live with the terrifying defensive results? I really don’t know, and I’m not sure anyone else does either. And that’s part of what makes this Mavs team so interesting."
  • Kris Humphries chalks up impressive numbers on the Wins Produced metric, prompting Andres Alvarez of Wages of Win to ask why the power forward remains unsigned.
  • When Boris Diaw was growing up in France, his mom -- a former player -- ordered him not to join the throng of kids who'd storm the scorebook immediately after the game to tally their point totals.
  • Watching Al Jefferson's deliberate but effective post game drives Zach Harper to thumbing through periodicals during live play, but Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams are shiny!
  • The amnesty deadline passed and Rashard Lewis is still a Wizard. Lewis is setting up house in Washington, where his daughter has enrolled at nearby Sidwell Friends, where the Obama girls attend school.
  • Who would you rather be -- the Lakers or the Clippers?
  • Kevin Durant's fans will scour North America for his backpack like it's an afikoman.

Friday Bullets

November, 11, 2011
11/11/11
1:33
PM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive

video

Trust and perception rule the legacy

July, 26, 2011
7/26/11
5:44
PM ET
Harper By Zach Harper
ESPN.com
Archive
A few weeks ago, I answered in one of the 5-on-5’s that Dirk Nowitzki was the breakout star of the 2010-11 NBA season.

On the surface, that looks completely asinine. He was already a star in the NBA. My reasoning was that his legacy and perception had vaulted into territories he hadn’t really ever approached before. During the regular season, I argued with fans in the Daily Dime Live many nights and tried to convince a significant number of chatters that Dirk was not overrated and was actually quite clutch. It seemed insane to me that people could look at Dirk throughout his career and consider him a choke artist.

People viewed a couple of missed free throws in the 2006 Finals as the all-encompassing nature of what he is and always has been, despite a lot of evidence that said otherwise.

The reason I had him pegged as the breakout star of last season was that he went from a guy who was arguably in the top 50 players of all time to being considered a top 20 player of all time by a lot of pundits and fans. By the end of the playoffs, Dirk was no longer a question. He was simply the presumed dagger to every ending.

Maybe part of that was a large portion of people seemingly rooting for Dirk to take down the Miami Heat. Maybe it was his insane play coinciding with the success of his team that was surging his legacy and reputation to new heights. Whatever the reason was, Dirk was now an unquestioned NBA legend. The claims that he wasn’t clutch were universally preposterous after the Mavs swept the Lakers. When he dismantled the Thunder, he was now being sold as a truly unstoppable force.

The funny thing about his run in the playoffs is he’s had better numbers and been more efficient before. While it seems like he never missed during the 2011 title run, he actually had much higher true shooting percentages and effective field goal percentages the previous two playoffs. He had only his seventh highest career playoff PER in 2011. The difference this time was his team’s success.

Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel had an article a couple days ago discussing the concept of choking. In it, he talked to former NBA player Alonzo Mourning and college football analyst Spencer Tillman about it.
“I think it happens to everybody,” says former Heat great Alonzo Mourning, now a team community-relations executive. “We, as professional athletes, when we’re put in that situation, the public, the team, everybody watching expects you to respond at that moment because you’re a highly paid athlete.”

But these are human beings, not machines, so more often than anyone would care to admit our sporting contests are decided by who blinks first.

“There are certain pressure points where the sense of responsibility rises,” Mourning says. “Anxiety increases and people, for lack of a better word, get nervous. People tighten up. You do things that you would not do when you’re at a comfort level.”

That’s not just a sports phenomenon either.

“All choking is,” says CBS college football analyst Spencer Tillman, “is when external situations impact what has traditionally been routine and normal for you.”
Rob Mahoney from NBC Sports’ Pro Basketball Talk elaborated on this point further:
More accurately, “choking,” is whatever the public consensus decides that it should be, which usually serves to confirm a widely held belief of a player or is sparked and sustained by a single and brilliant irrefutable play.

Hit a game-winning shot in a big playoff game, and your reputation is made. Miss a crucial free throw with the game on the line, and that same rep is sunk…so long as the adoring public is willing to let the visions of clutch greatness go. The memory of the basketball fan collective is astoundingly selective, and whatever evidence is deemed admissible is twisted and spun in a way that simultaneously creates a clutch résumé and amends the very fluid definition of the term itself. Then come the arguments based on such a malleable foundation, a discussion that pretends to be based on a shared notion but only remains bound by the most abstract of concepts.

“Clutch,” is whatever we want it to be.

The reason people argue that Kobe is clutch isn’t because of the numbers or necessarily an overwhelming set of consistent evidence. It’s because they trust him with the ball in his hands when the Lakers need a big shot. They can claim that the evidence is taken out of context or that Henry Abbott has a vendetta against Kobe (which is an absolutely hilarious notion). But really the only thing that matters when discussing who is and isn’t clutch is whether or not you trust them.

Kobe Bryant has made enough shots and won enough games with the result in question to make fans generally comfortable with him getting the next clutch shot. Carmelo Anthony is pretty much in that circle of trust as well. Paul Pierce is very much in that realm. Ray Allen might be the mayor of this place of trust.

LeBron James is not someone who has earned that universal trust with his play. For a lot of basketball fans before the 2011 playoffs, Dirk hadn’t won a title and “choked away” his shot at one in 2006. People who measure greatness by jewelry earned didn’t exactly trust him.

The perception of the individual fan discussing whether or not someone is clutch or not clutch, overrated or underrated, underpaid or overpaid is really the only thing that matters in such discussions. It’s nearly impossible to look at the entire body of evidence when debating these topics because two fans can look at the exact same play and see it two completely different ways.

Sports are always such a personal, internal catalyst for how we feel about the things we see. We look for an animalistic satisfaction in the way things happen on the field. We want to see overpowering moments of success. We want to see domination. But we also want to see someone come down to the final shot and come through during the most pressure-packed moments. We want to feel the drama of what’s happening, trust that our guy will come through when it counts the most, and feel that validation of knowing he would succeed.

Before this season, mostly Mavericks fans felt comfortable with Dirk holding their fate in his hands. It wasn’t a completely shared perception around the basketball annals of fans’ minds. After the latest 21 of his career 124 playoff games, Dirk has turned that impression around.

The next true breakout star in the NBA probably won’t be a young player who begins a legacy before our very eyes. It might just be someone who changes the universal perception of an existing one.

Monday Bullets

July, 25, 2011
7/25/11
11:24
AM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive
  • J.A. Adande joined Baron Davis on the campus of UCLA, where the Cavs point guard will try to maintain a GPA, not a PER. At Hardwood Paroxysm, Holly MacKenzie shares a story about how, several seasons back, Davis blew her off in a locker room in Seattle, only to track her down later on in the tunnel to make amends: "[Davis] taught me a lesson: players can be cranky, and sometimes you’ll approach them after a bad loss or performance when they’re angry or bitter or caught up in something. But often times, how someone treats you on that single occasion isn’t a fair representation of who that person is."
  • Davis coached LeBron James in a Drew League game on Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles. Marc Spears of Yahoo! Sports: "[Drew League director Dino] Smiley said many fans tweeted and sent text messages about James’ arrival. 'Every edge' of the court in the tiny gym, Smiley said, was packed. Smiley said the gym doors were eventually closed shut during James’ game by law enforcement officers, who told fans if they left they couldn’t return"
  • Thunderground Radio evaluates how Sam Presti fared in 2010-11. Was the Perkins-Green trade necessary? Can Reggie Jackson make an impact in the backcourt?
  • Blake Griffin is a monster and, barring injury, projects to be a indomitable franchise player. For the Clippers, that's the easy part. The more elastic variable for the team is Eric Gordon. If the Clippers aren't able to land a marquee superstar, could they still be a force in the West with Gordon as their featured perimeter threat with Griffin down low, provided DeAndre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe continue to grow? Nick Flynt of ClipperBlog takes a look.
  • What happened to the Trail Blazers after they broke up their Finals core in 1993? A retrospective from Blazers Edge.
  • I'm a sucker for any basketball post that prominently features Bob Walk, who pitched for the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. A pitcher named Walk would the equivalent of a hoopster named Travel. But the thrust of the Negative Dunkalectics' post by Chris George is not the dubiously-named Walk, but the playing career of Warriors head coach Mark Jackson: "Mark Jackson was a comparatively small and non-athletic man, largely informed by a street game, who managed to use a few moves over and over again to put up much better numbers than he 'should' have. The combination of the back down, the baby hook, the no-look passes, the teardrop, and the push shot made him one of the most frustrating point guards of his era, even if he never had the ability to be a true star."
  • Jason Terry delivered the first pitch at Sunday's Texas Rangers game to Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler. Dirk Nowitzki via Twitter: "Was jet's first pitch at rangers game better than mine? Didn't anyone see it? Let me know."
  • Who is Manuel Velez Pangilinan? He's the very wealthy, very influential guy behind the pair of exhibition games at Araneta Coliseum in Manila between a slew of NBA stars and standouts from the Philippine Basketball Association. The two games were standing room only and tickets on the secondary market ran as much as four times face value.
  • The WNBA named its 15 best players ever. Ball in Europe follows with its 15 best Euroleague women players in history.
  • Hakeem Olajuwon, Marco Belinelli and Hedo Turkoglu: Each initially excited Raps fans when he signed on the dotted line, only to fall way short of expectations. For good measure, five Raptors draft picks that raised eyebrows.
  • Six years prior to putting on a Raptors jersey, Olajuwon logged 39 points and 17 rebounds in the Game 6 clincher of the 1995 Western Conference finals against the Spurs. NBA Off-Season presents another in their Lockout Classics series.
  • If Kobe Bryant is Derek Jeter, then Derek Fisher is Jorge Posada. Does that make Robert Horry Scott Brosius?
  • Look out, Monday. Wes Matthews is in mission mode.
  • Kings big man Jason Thompson: "Congrats to the NFL on ending their Lockout....NOW its OUR TURN!!!!"

Yao Ming's impressive stats in brief career

July, 20, 2011
7/20/11
11:19
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com
Archive
Yao Ming's legacy reaches far beyond his nine years in the NBA. He arrived on the scene as the top pick of the Houston Rockets in the 2002 NBA Draft, the fifth player taken No. 1 overall by the Rockets, and third 7-footer following Ralph Sampson (1983) and Hakeem Olajuwon (1984).

He finished with career averages of 19.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, including two seasons when he averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds. He retires sixth in Rockets history in points (9,247) and rebounds (4,494), and trails only Olajuwon in blocks.
Yao Ming
Yao Ming

From 2002-09 -- the first seven seasons of his career -- no center scored more points than Yao, who also ranked in the top four at the position in rebounds, blocks and field goals.

In his last full season (2008-09), Yao ranked second among centers in scoring (19.7 PPG) and did much of his damage in the post. That season, no player shot a better percentage from the floor on post-up plays (52.9), and his 964 post-up points were the most anyone scored in a single season since the 2005-06 season.

At 7 feet, 6 inches, Yao goes down as the tallest player in Rockets history, and among the tallest to ever play in the NBA along with Gheorghe Muresan (7-7), Manute Bol (7-7) and Shawn Bradley (7-6). In fact, among players listed at 7 feet, 2 inches or taller only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar finished with a higher career scoring average (24.6).

Yao also was a terrific free throw shooter -- especially for his size. Among players with at least 1,000 free throws made, Yao ranked second among 7-footers in highest free throw percentage (83.3), behind only Dirk Nowitzki's 87.7.

However, injuries cut short his career. He missed 250 of a possible 492 regular-season games in his last six seasons, including the entire 2009-10 campaign. In fact, his eight seasons played (which includes five games he played last season) is tied for the second-fewest of any player taken No. 1 overall in the common era of the draft (1966). Only LaRue Martin, taken by the Trail Blazers in 1972, spent less time in the NBA (four seasons).

Nowitzki, Mavs are too clutch for Heat

June, 13, 2011
6/13/11
3:55
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Info
ESPN.com
Archive
The Dallas Mavericks won their first NBA championship behind 27 points from Jason Terry and 21 points and 11 rebounds from Dirk Nowitzki. The latter took home the Finals MVP award after averaging 26 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in the series.

Nowitzki is the 11th player in NBA history with at least 10 NBA All-Star appearances, an MVP award and a Finals MVP award. Seven of the other 10 are members of the Basketball Hall of Fame and the other three -- Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant -- are near-locks to be enshrined once they are eligible.

Although Nowitzki was outscored by a teammate off the bench in the clinching game, he still scored 10 in the fourth quarter and played well the whole series when it mattered most.

Only O’Neal and Michael Jordan averaged more points in the fourth quarter in the NBA Finals in the past 20 seasons.

Terry struggled in the first three games of the series and went scoreless when guarded by LeBron James in the fourth quarter. Then he questioned whether James could guard him for the entire series and went about proving himself right. He increased his scoring by nearly 50 percent and nearly tripled his fourth-quarter scoring output in the final three games of the series.

Terry’s 368 points were the most by a bench player in a single postseason in the past 25 years, and his 18 points per game was the highest in the NBA Finals for a player who didn’t start a game since Freddie Brown averaged 19.1 for the Sonics in 1978.

While Nowitzki shined, Miami struggled late in games.

The Mavs outscored the Heat 75-49 in the last five minutes of the six games, nearly doubled their rebounding total (29-15) and forced 14 turnovers while committing just six of their own.

In fact, Nowitzki scored as many fourth-quarter points by himself as James and Dwyane Wade combined in the series. In crunch time -- defined as the last five minutes of the game with the score within five points -- he outscored the entire Miami roster.

James went 0-for-7 from the field and went scoreless during crunch time in this series and didn’t even attempt a free throw.

That continued a pattern of decreasing aggressiveness -- he averaged 8.4 free throws per game during the regular season and 9.1 in his first three postseason series. In the NBA Finals, he averaged just 3.3 free throws per game and never had more than four in a single game.

In 86 previous postseason games, James had never come close to attempting so few free throws in any six-game span. In his playoff career, his teams are 4-9 when he attempts four or fewer free throws and 52-27 when he takes five or more.

Prior to the 2011 NBA Finals, under the current 2-3-2 format (which began in 1985) in the NBA Finals, when a series was tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 won the series 100 percent of the time (11-0). The Miami Heat became the first team in NBA history to win Game 3 under those circumstances and lose the NBA Finals.

Dirk shines again in 4th, brings home title

June, 13, 2011
6/13/11
12:31
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com
Archive
For the first time in NBA history, the Larry O’Brien Trophy is headed to Dallas.

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Miami Heat 105-95, becoming the fourth franchise in the past 20 postseasons to claim their first NBA title (2006 Heat, 1999 San Antonio Spurs and 1994 Houston Rockets).

They became the fifth team to win the NBA title as a No. 3 seed or lower since the current NBA playoff format began in 1984.

Jason Terry led the Mavericks with a game-high 27 points off the bench, scoring 19 in the first half.

Terry tied for the most points off the bench by a player in a series-clinching NBA Finals win since the NBA-ABA merger, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Manu Ginobili had 27 points when the Spurs beat the Cleveland Cavaliers (and LeBron James) in 2007.

Dirk Nowitzki
Nowitzki
Despite shooting 9-of-27 from the field in the series clincher, Dirk Nowitzki finished with 21 points including 10 in the fourth quarter.

Such efforts down the stretch, in addition to his overall performance for the series, earned Nowitzki the NBA Finals MVP. Nowitzki is just the fourth player born outside the U.S. to win the Finals MVP.

Nowitzki entered this postseason having scored 22,792 points in the regular season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that is the fourth-most by a player at the time of his first NBA title, trailing only Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain, and West.

LeBron James led Miami with 21 points and Dwyane Wade added 17 points, but the two combined for 11 of the Heat's 17 turnovers.

For the series, James and Wade combined for 62 fourth-quarter points. Nowitzki, by himself, scored a total of 62 points in the fourth quarter of the series.

While James had a better showing in the fourth quarter in Game 6 than in previous games, his overall scoring was still well below his standards.

He finished with a 17.8 scoring average for the series, 8.9 points worse than what he averaged during the regular season (26.7).

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 8.9 points per game differential is the largest dropoff from the regular season to the NBA Finals in NBA history (among players who averaged at least 25 PPG during the regular season).

Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle improves to 11-3 all-time in potential series-clinching games, the best record in such games in NBA history (min. 10 games).

Carlisle joins Pat Riley (1982 Lakers) as the only coaches in the last 30 seasons to win an NBA title in their Finals coaching debut with a team that had a worse regular season record than its opponent.

And at 38 years old Jason Kidd became the second-oldest player to start in and win the NBA Finals. Only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was older. He won in 1987 and 1988 with the Lakers at ages 39 and 40.

Kidd and Nowitzki become the fifth and sixth players in NBA history to win their first NBA title after already making 10 or more All-Star teams.

The others? Jerry West, Kevin Garnett, Oscar Robertson and Elvin Hayes.
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