TrueHoop: Josh Childress

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August, 25, 2010
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Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
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August, 19, 2010
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August, 16, 2010
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April, 28, 2010
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Remember last summer when Josh Childress signed his big deal with Olympiacos in Greece?

It was fueled largely by the fact that the dollar was weak, European currencies were strong, and therefore Europeans could buy American things (including lanky wings with killer hair) at what was, to them, a discount.

An anonymous TrueHoop reader just sent me a link to an older economics blog post with a killer graph which points out how the Euro has tanked vs. the dollar since then, and Childress may have lost so much money from that reality that he could have made more staying in Atlanta.

Those Euros that were such an asset last summer might not feel so great now ...

However, at the time this all happened, Childress' agent Jim Tanner told me something that seemed pretty smart at the time, but really smart now.

Childress' contract is in dollars.

Which has the effect of locking in the magically good exchange rate from the moment the contract was signed. It also means that now that the dollar is much stronger than it was, if Childress spends his own money in Europe (he gets a ton of stuff, including housing, provided by the team) now it's all on sale for him.

That could be handy this weekend, when he makes his way to Germany for the EuroLeague Final Four.

UPDATE: TrueHoop reader Matt points out that Childress is like the anti-Gisele.

Great interview, that I somehow missed when it was new a few days ago, with the former Hawk who is playing for Olympiacos.

He talks about money, the process of going to Europe, how nice the team is to him, and how a lot of NBA players seem to be interested in how it's going for him.

He also talks about the difference in the European game. In Europe, he says, there is much more of an emphasis on doing the things that actually win games, instead of scoring points.

For instance, Childress tells Pete Thamel of The New York Times:

In the N.B.A., your top guys like LeBron and Kobe average 40-plus minutes a game. Here, I might average 27. That's how he operates. The games here are 40 minutes. I think people get things a little skewed when they see the numbers and how guys are scoring.

It's tougher to score here. There's no defensive three seconds. They play zone. There's all kinds of ways that make it tougher to score; the game is a lot more physical. It's more of a team game. It's a little more evenly spread. Like you said, 15 points in 27 minutes is a good number.

But that's not important. The guys that score big numbers here are on bad teams. The M.V.P. of the Euroleague last year, Theodoros Papaloukas, he's on our team now. He may average 10 points and 5, 6, 7 assists. They really look at who changes the game, who is the most valuable for their team. Not just who puts up 30. So it's a different mind-set.

Last game against Tel Aviv, after the game I was a little down. I had some missed opportunities. We still won, but as a competitor I want to do my best. Papaloukas comes up to me and says: "Hey man, relax. You put your body in there and got a steal and we won the game." It's more of a thing where they appreciate the little things that you do to win games. If I had scored 30 and we lost, they probably would have been mad. I think I had 15 and I got a good steal, and it's like, "Good game."

If it really is true -- that little things that win games are more valued in Europe -- then that confirms just about every negative stereotype of American basketball development. And it fits perfectly with the message from just about every new-breed statistical expert: That scoring is overvalued here, at the expense of other things that are hugely important but less obvious.

Big Doings in Europe

July, 30, 2008
7/30/08
1:59
PM ET

A couple of days ago, Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress conducted a fascinating interview with Manos Manouselis, who is an assistant coach for Josh Childress' new European team, Olympiacos.

There is a lot of talk about how Childress wound up at Olympiacos.

And then there is some intrigue, about the future of European basketball. 

Quoting Manouselis:

The owners of Olympiacos, Panagiotis and George Angelopoulos, are one of the most financially strong ownership groups in all of sports. ...

We understand that the business model for basketball in Europe is different from the NBA, but there are many things our owners, Panagiotis and George Angelopoulos, are trying to do to improve our model. We have a new arena that we are planning for the 2011 season that will significantly improve revenue, as well as many other ideas to improve revenue streams.

People forget that the NBA was not very profitable before the David Stern era and look at them now...and actually basketball is the 3rd sport in the USA after football and baseball. I have family in the States so I have personally seen this evolution since the early 80's. Is European basketball presently now what the NBA was in the early 80's? Maybe. If that is true there should be tremendous business upside.

Actually, since the Josh Childress signing team sponsorship request are at an all time high, even though that was not our intent. I would never bet against our owners when it comes to getting a monetary return on their investment.

Then read this last part, which drove this whole blog post: 

They have a long term plan that everyone will have to wait to see unfold, and that plan does not just include Olympiacos, but rather European basketball as a whole.

So we have some deep-pocketed owners, building a new stadium, and thinking big, secretive, long-term things about basketball in Europe. 

I'll bet any amount that that new stadium they're working on will conform to NBA guidelines for what makes a profitable stadium. Even if you plan to compete against the NBA ... at a time when David Stern has talked about European expansion, and there is all kinds of talk about how London and Berlin have "NBA-ready" stadiums, how could you not consider the NBA when spending on a big new building in Europe?

This is just one of a thousand suggestions over the last few years that perhaps one day before too long the NBA may expand to Europe (despite apparent fan apprehension). Then the Hawks might get to avenge their loss of Childress by knocking Olympiacos out of the playoffs.

Yesterday, in the wake of the Josh Childress news, a TrueHoop reader mused about the possibility that one day it might be possible for an NBA team to trade a player to an overseas team.

Far-fetched, huh? That's what I thought. 

Then we learned, later in the day, that in fact such a thing had apparently already happened. There are records of a sort, and media mentions, of the time in 1988 when the Utah Jazz traded Mel Turpin to Spain's CAI Zaragoza in exchange for Jose Ortiz.

Some checking with the Utah Jazz, however, reveals that it was a trade-like agreement, but not actually a trade. At the core of the deal was the synchronized release of two players from existing contracts -- with the expectation that each would then sign with the other franchise.

So there really still is no precedent for an NBA team trading with a non-NBA team, as far as I know. 

Jonathan Rinehart of the Jazz PR staff (who is up to his eyeballs in Rocky Mountain Revue) was nice enough to talk to Scott Layden, David Fredman, and (Ortiz's agent at the time) Warren LeGarie to get the specifics.

"The Jazz drafted Jose Ortiz in 1987," explains Rinehart. Ortiz, I should point out, is a legend of Puerto Rican basketball, and had been a standout at Oregon State, where he played alongside Gary Payton for a time. He made smaller waves once he got to the NBA. "Ortiz was on the Puerto Rican national team, however, and was interested in playing in the 1988 Olympics. At that time, if he had come straight to the NBA, he would not have been eligible to play for his country at the Olympics. So he signed a three-year contract to play in Zaragoza, with an NBA out."

(That means he had a clause letting him get out of his contract before three years if he was leaving for the NBA.)

"After his year in Spain," Rinehart continues, "negotiations began to get Ortiz to the Jazz. The Spanish team was interested in some kind of compensation in exchange for letting him go. They were interested in Mel Turpin, and the Jazz had a delegation over to scout him.

"An agreement was struck that Zaragoza would release Ortiz -- a player whose NBA rights the Jazz already owned -- from his Spanish contract so that he could sign here, and about the same time the Jazz would waive Mel Turpin, who would then sign with Zaragoza. It was billed as a trade in the media at the time, but in fact it was not a trade, because there was no framework to make a trade with a team outside the NBA. The Jazz placed Turpin on waivers on September 7, 1988, and he cleared waivers on September 9. We signed Ortiz about that same time."

So, as it happens, we really have no precedent for future players like Josh Childress being traded to foreign teams -- instead of leaving for nothing. However, thanks to the people in Zaragoza and at Salt Lake City, we do have precedent for teams using negotiations and outside-the-box thinking to get some value from overseas when they might lose a player for nothing.

Thursday Bullets

July, 24, 2008
7/24/08
1:36
PM ET
  • Lengthy new video interview with LeBron James in which he guarantees U.S. victory in Beijing.
  • Carl Landry's agent threatens to "go Euro" too.
  • TrueHoop reader Matt e-mails: "I think you should let everybody know that my NBA fanhood is open for business. After the events that took place on Wednesday, I can no longer call myself an Atlanta Hawks fan. If Hawks management doesn't care about me, why should I care about them? I'm not going to live my life depressed. I don't want to be in the draft lottery nine more years, in a row. I'm tired of always being disappointed, frustrated, and dumbfounded by management's decisions. So, here I am America (not Greece)! I want to be a fan of a NBA team that cares about it's players, coaches and fans."
  • Hall of Famer Nancy Lieberman will play in the WNBA at 50. That reminds me of this cartoon.
  • David Berri of the Wages of Wins comments on some ESPN.com coverage of the Josh Childress move and adds: "The NBA's collective bargaining agreement has rules that confer monopsonistic power to teams. What does this mean? A monopoly is a single seller of a good. A monopsony is a single buyer. When the population of buyers or sellers in a market is restricted, market power tends to get transferred to the smaller population. In the case of the NBA, Childress had trouble finding another buyer for his services in the NBA. This is probably because other NBA teams figured the Hawks would match an offer for Childress, and hence it was not be worth the effort to open negotiations. When offers are restricted, monopsonistic power develops and the buyer can make the purchase with less money. And it's important to note, that is the purpose of these rules. The NBA limits the free market for a player's services to transfer money from players to teams. It's not about competitive balance. Of course all this will only work if you can maintain monopsonistic power. What Childress has demonstrated is that European basketball teams -- who are not part of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement - are potential buyers of top basketball talent. With European teams entering the market, the NBA's ability to exploit (i.e. pay workers less than the revenue the worker generates) professional basketball players is mitigated. And this means the NBA is going to have to either a. live with players like Childress emigrating to the Europe. b. devise new rules so that NBA teams can pay wages that are closer to what the player is worth."
  • A decade and a half after leaving the NBA early for the NBA, Corie Blount gets his college degree from the University of Cincinnati. Talia Bargil writes about the event for the Legends of Basketball website: "A 39-year-old Blount -- graduation cap and gown in tow -- made the symbolic graduation walk across the stage June 14, 2008, as he clinched another meaningful victory ... earning his college diploma. 'I sacrificed a lot for that piece of paper,' said Blount, whose degree in criminal justice came from the University of Cincinnati. 'My last semester I had all A's and B's, and I had never done that before in my entire life!' A husband and father of five, Blount graduated in front of his family, friends and mentors. Esteemed guests included former U.C. Basketball Coach Bob Huggins, and NBA Hall of Famer, Oscar Robertson, who earned a bachelor of business administration degree from the University in 1960."
  • For the low price of $1.75 and an empty beer bottle, Rod Benson can help you strike up conversation in a singles bar. I'm quite sure this would also impress four-year-olds, which is something I spend a lot of time trying to do.
  • Tomorrow, in a friendly warm-up to the Olympics, Team USA will face Canada and Carl English, a sweet shooter with a terribly sad family story.
  • We talk a lot about new breed basketball statistics on this site, but when we do, what the hell are we actually talking about? Take a few minutes and read this nice little primer, with links to other nice little primers.
  • Chris Mullin floats the idea that if Golden State had offered Baron Davis the same contract he got from the Clippers, Davis might not have taken it.
  • The Kings reportedly sign Bobby Brown, a point guard who can certainly shoot. Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty, noting that Brown was expected to sign in Europe, writes: "Kings > Europe > Hawks."
  • The first place I have seen it suggested that Robin Lopez may one day be seen as a better professional player than his twin brother Brook.
  • All discussion of credentialing NBA bloggers ought to now include reference to this BlazersEdge post.

New place. New surroundings. New world.

Plans to stay for quite some time. 

Anyone could get a little homesick. Anyone could feel that longing for the familiar surroundings of home.

Experts say the thing to do is to not become a shut-in. To get used to going out and about. To learn, over time, to find enjoyment from new kinds of things.

For Josh Childress, newly arrived in Greece, mission accomplished

(Thanks to Aristidis for the link.) 

Josh Childress, former sixth overall pick in the NBA draft, and a player who played very well for an Atlanta team that put a real scare into the eventual champions, is leaving the NBA to play for Greece.

He signed a contract today with Greek powerhouse Olympiacos, in Athens, at 2:30 p.m. local time. (You can see pictures of Childress smiling over his contract.)

His agents made clear in a conference call today that when taxes and incentives -- including the use of a very nice home -- are factored in, Childress can make more playing in Greece then he can in the NBA.

There have been plenty of NBA players who have turned down NBA jobs to play overseas, including Juan Carlos Navarro, Tiago Splitter, Bostjan Nachbar, Carlos Delfino, Primoz Brezec, and Fran Vazquez. There have also been Americans like Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Loren Woods who have chosen European contracts over hanging around and hoping an NBA team will pick them up.

But Childress is the first American player in line to make big money as a key part of a good team who has decided to ditch the NBA.

As NBA fans, how should we take this?

Just about every reaction I have seen from NBA fans has been along the lines of "oh no, this is bad for us."

My reaction is exactly the opposite. Unless you're a fan of the Atlanta Hawks, have a party! This might be a little bit of a short-term black eye for the NBA, but this is great for NBA fans, and ultimately, the NBA.

There are lots of reasons I say that, and they all have something to do with real deal free market capitalism -- with its many pressures to prove, daily, that you're the best -- coming to parts of the NBA where they have long been absent.

With all due respect to the ABA, the NBA does not have competition, and has not since the merger with the original ABA. That is good in some ways, I guess. It keeps things tidy for us fans. But it's not so good for keeping the League office, the team front offices, the players, and everyone else on their toes.

In most businesses, if you do things in an inefficient manner, eventually your competition will come along and do it better, cheaper, faster, etc., and they will hurt your bottom line or put you out of business entirely. That's how the free market forces efficiency on us all. It's painful at times, but it sure teaches some strong lessons about figuring out what's most important and constantly evolving.

The NBA really does not have to deal with that. They have to win fans away from other entertainment options, yes. But they really don't have to win fans from other professional basketball leagues.

I can think of a thousand ways that the NBA is inefficient. Off the top of my head:

  • There is a vast "boys club" that manages many NBA teams. You know the names. Once you are in the club of people who make big NBA basketball decisions, you're in whether you're particularly good at your job or not. Meanwhile, there are all kinds of people who were born to do the work, but are locked out because they lack the basketball pedigree. (Sometimes a Jeff or Stan Van Gundy, Lawrence Frank, Ed Stefanski, etc. will buck the trend.) If, as an NBA owner, you're competing strictly against other teams that select their leaders from the same small pool of candidates, then you're probably not going to suffer too much from recycling the same coaches and GMs again and again. But if some teams are really casting a wide net and finding better coaches, better front office people, better trainers, better player development people, and better players from all over the world then that brings around a level of basketball that is just higher, and that is good for us fans. This Childress move is a step in that direction, as in some small way, a real deal NBA player signing in Greece tells us that NBA teams are, in fact, competing with Euroleague teams in ways we had not thought they ever would. (One of Childress's agents, Lon Babby, said today that when the negotiations were unfolding, the Hawks organization "obviously never contemplated that we'd go outside the NBA.") There have been lots of reasons for smart NBA people to learn from Europe, and vice-versa. Now here's one more.
  • The NBA has a deeply entrenched superstar system, built around those who score the most points. Despite what the League might tell you, the stars get the calls, the stars get the ball, and the stars get the marketing dollars. The stars can even get coaches fired. There are reasons for all of that. But the truth remains that, if it's just about winning basketball games, that star system, and an obsession with points, can be a burden. (A lot of "stat geek" work is really the quest to isolate what, beyond obvious stuff like points, really matters to winning.) Childress made clear that in his conversations with Olympiacos, and with other people knowledgeable about European basketball, he learned that the system was different in Europe. "I assumed that I'd have to go average 20, 22 points a game here," he explains. "But the Euroleague MVP most years averages like 12 points, five rebounds, and five assists. It's an award that the guy who actually helps his team win the most wins. ... My coaches here just want me to be versatile, and to play four positions, and to help the team win as many ways as I can." Some of that mentality wouldn't hurt the NBA any.
  • The NBA's collective bargaining agreement includes a ton of complicated clauses. Each serves a purpose, and you can make a case that, all told, it's a good and fairly fair system. But regulation is always burdensome, and this league, famously run by lawyers, is knee-deep in legalese. In this instance, those rules created a really weird deal. According to Josh Childress, there were championship-contending NBA teams that were willing to pay him more than the Hawks would. A sign-and-trade couldn't be worked out, so Childress was stuck. But that makes a situation where here's an employee, a place that wanted to employ him, and an agreed upon price. In normal human life, that's all you need to make a deal. You can only tinker with the free market so much before it starts depressing normal economic activity. This is one of those cases. A rule (essentially, the salary cap) designed solely to keep NBA teams competitive with each other now ends up helping a whole different league. Will the NBA change the salary cap in some profound way to address that? Babby, for his part, says that he would "never underestimate the capacity of the NBA to respond to market trends."
  • On-court NBA rules could be hurting the game a little. For instance, Childress pointed out that in Europe he may suffer a little getting used to a league where more aggressive hand-checking is allowed. I like a game where little guys can get to the hoop, but if the NBA's interpretation of that rule is making players who can't compete as well, then that's worth knowing and possibly addressing.

The League itself, in the way it addresses the public and the players, often strikes me as arrogant. There are all kinds of stories swirling around about referees being crooked, and yet the NBA continues not to feel the need to speak frankly and openly with fans. That dress code sure seems paternalistic, doesn't it? No one is all that impressed with the process that got the SuperSonics to Oklahoma City.

Or, consider David Stern's handling of a John Hollinger question during the NBA Finals. At that moment, the Spurs had just lost top draft pick Tiago Splitter to a bigger contract overseas, which seemed to be the latest shot in a growing arms race between the NBA and Europe. Stern apparently knew nothing about it, and denigrated the very notion that the NBA could be hurt in such a manner.

In all those cases and many others, the NBA gets to handle things essentially however they want, because when it comes to elite professional basketball, they are the only game in town.

That all ch
anges when top talent starts going to other leagues. Josh Childress himself doesn't scare the League as a business. He's a potential starter on an OK team.

But if it makes sense for Childress, it's hard to promise that you'd never see a Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul give it a whirl.

Josh Childress has opened some doors.

One of them is to American fans, many of whom will check out European basketball for the first time this season. It's a good brand of basketball. It may open people's eyes to some ideas that could make the better.

There is also, of course, the chance that Childress will be a trend-setter.

I find that economists often have overly simplistic ways of analyzing things. Many will tell you, for instance, that if a business offers to pay employees more in Toledo than the similar factory in Kansas City, then workers will move to Toledo. (But what about their friends, I wonder, what about the corner coffee shop they'd hate to leave behind?)

For a long time, a good counterpoint has been American professional basketball players. Many could make more money in Europe (including a huge percentage of D-Leaguers), as Childress has done. But those Americans with offers to play in the NBA tended to play, even though plenty of Americans raved about life in Europe.

The main thing that kept them here was the brand. The NBA. Write those three letters as large and as bold as you'd like. They are the reason players stayed up late in eighth grade perfecting the jumper, or the leftie spin move. The NBA was, and is, the dream, even for some players who grew up in Europe.

In the eyes of many American players, more money from somewhere besides the NBA was just more money. It was not the NBA. It was not the dream.

But now Josh Childress -- an open-minded and intelligent Stanford guy -- is sending out a piece of news that he has done his homework, he has checked out the scene in Europe, and he finds the situation to be ... extremely nice. Nice enough that it's worth comparing the apples of an NBA contract with the oranges of a Euroleague contract.

That's a new way of thinking to Josh Childress's contemporaries, who are some of the best players in the world. If he ends up reporting that life continues to be nice in Athens, well then that has to change how almost everyone in power in the NBA thinks about things. They have to think globally, and be the best at what they do not just out of thirty teams, but anywhere in the world.

The NBA has a HUGE head start in that effort. NBA teams are, currently, the best (although who would be shocked if teams like CSKA Moscow steal a game or two against NBA competition this coming preseason). NBA teams have deep pockets, a business model that drives profits to most teams, and a brand that continues to have tremendous value in the minds of nearly everyone.

But what the NBA does not have, anymore, is a free pass to supremacy. And if you're a fan of good basketball, that's a good thing.

No Suspensions?
So, nobody from either Atlanta or Boston will be suspended for Game 5, and that's a big problem for people in ... Phoenix.

For instance, consider this e-mail from TrueHoop reader Damien:

HOW IN THE WORLD WERE THERE NO SUSPENSIONS??? I'm not a huge Suns fan, but if I was in Phoenix right now, I'd be rioting in the streets. The EXACT thing that Stern suspended the players for last season in the series against the Spurs now goes unpunished because it might hurt the Celtics chances of advancing to a possible Celtics / Lakers finals. To quote Stu Jackson from last season, "A precedent wasn't necessary here. The rule with respect to leaving the bench area during an altercation is very clear. Historically, if you break it, you will get suspended, regardless of what the circumstances are." Stern and Jackson also concluded last year that Duncan didn't deserve a suspension for stepping on the court during the Elson-Jones mess in game 4 because it was not deemed an altercation. Well what was last night? How is this not the ultimate example of a double standard? Duncan and Bowen don't get suspended during the game 4 situation, no one gets suspended from last night's game, but Stoudemire and Diaw got suspended? How can they possibly defend this?? Why was Tim Frank, NBA Spokesman, giving his response to this situation instead of Jackson or Stern, who were so quick to quote NBA rule 12-A-VII-c last season but ignore it now? Does this not all seem a little fishy? Why am I getting Donaghy flashbacks?

Atlanta fans were really hoping for suspensions. (Update: At least some of them. Micah Hart, who helps to run the team's website emails: "I should only speak for myself, but I can tell you at least that the Hawks as a team, and the people who work around the team, did NOT want them suspended. I think the Hawks, being a young team, have a tendency to play to the level of the competition. ... I don't want there to be anything that makes the Hawks think they can let up for even a second, even subconsciously.") For one thing, it would keep key Boston big man Kendrick Perkins out of the game. As an added bonus, it would force Mike Woodson to play Josh Childress in place of Marvin Williams, something a lot of Hawks fans have long advocated. (Check out the +/- discrepancy between the two last game: Childress was +18, Williams -10.)

For the record, here is my understanding of what happened in this case: If players leave theAl Horford area of the bench during an altercation, they are suspended for the next game. Period. That's the story, and that's what Stu Jackson and David Stern said so emphatically last year.

If you read the coverage of that big messy story at the time, you know that I am generally supportive of the league in this. Fair or not, bench-clearing brawls are a major problem for this sport, and they are way down thanks to this rule. And the players know this rule very well, so anyone who breaks it is, you know, asking for it.

But wow, if the rule is to be enforced without interpretation, it is to be enforced without interpretation, right?

Wrong. I have talked to the league, and I have learned there is an element of the rule that is interpreted by Stu Jackson and his staff, and that is whether or not a player has actually left "the bench area."

The kicker is, there's no real definition of "bench area."

But, apparently, it has been a false assumption that standing on the court at all is taboo. If you stay close to the bench, and I guess don't look like you mean business -- as both players did here -- then you are eligible for a free pass. Watch Kendrick Perkins in this video.

That won't satisfy Phoenix fans, and I'm not entirely certain how I feel about it, but -- consider yourself informed.

Now, on to actual basketball.

Al Horford: Great Draft Pick
I see Horford as more of a leader now than ever, and a key reason Atlanta has a shot at winning a best-of-three series against the best team in the land.

  • I already wrote about how impressed I was that he was the one to calm Zaza Pachulia down after that altercation with Kevin Garnett. (Same video as the last link.) A+.
  • In all honesty, after not screaming at people all season, his screaming at Paul Pierce gave his team a big-time shot in the arm. It's not what you want every game, or almost ever, but it was exactly what his team needed just then. It told everyone that the Hawks were not, in their minds, underlings.
  • Al Horford called down to his college video coordinator to get a copy of the Muhammad Ali documentary "When We Were Kings" to show to his teammates to get them fired up. Are you kidding me? Are a lot of rookies even thinking about how to lift up their teammates in this way? I think not.
  • He can play! Here's ESPN's David Thorpe, in his Scouts Inc. preview of tonight's game, calling for Horford to be a bigger part of the offense when it matters. "The energized crowd in Atlanta helped the Hawks crawl back into the game after they were behind early (13 points) and then again at the end of the third quarter (10). Doing so, once or twice, will be much tougher in Boston, so coach Mike Woodson has to pick three or four of his best plays to immediately go to when facing a strong Boston run. Horford inside is one, Smith in open space is a second and anything involving Johnson ranks after those two options."

Thorpe also talked a fair amount about Horford in his preview of Game 4. It makes me think Horford might have a little bit of what makes Tim Duncan such a great teammate: that "Mother Hen" instinct -- to want to make sure his teammates are all feeling good. Thorpe writes:

Boston also needs to respect Al Horford more than it has. He sometimes has gone unchecked in the paint when Boston has 'zoned up' underneath on perimeter ball screens. Both Kendrick Perkins and KG have made that mistake, resulting in a dunk or foul.

Finding Horford should be the No. 1 priority in those situations -- his hands are too good and he's too accomplished a finisher to be left unaccounted for inside. Horford was a larger part of the offense in Game 3 (only about three months late), routinely posting up and making easy kick-out passes when Boston did surround him, or hitting cutters for easy buckets. His six assists added up to 15 points, and his teammates moved smartly after the entry pass instead of standing and watching.

In many ways, Horford already is the best leader on this team. He is its spirit and has a lot of influence on Josh Smith, Atlanta's supreme X factor. Late in Game 3, when Smith seemed to relax and enjoy Atlanta's lead, it was Horford who grabbed Smith's head with both hands and talked with him for a few moments. Smith immediately stopped smiling and plugged back in to the Hawks' huddle. If Boston can
do a better job of derailing Horford, it will go a long way toward locking up Round 1.

Desire
When the playoffs started, there were two series which were clear cut. The two best teams to make the playoffs -- Boston and Detroit -- against the two worst teams to make the playoffs -- Atlanta and Philadelphia. Amazingly, those were also the only two series to even make it to 2-2. All the rest, after four games, were either finished, or 3-1.

So, what does that tell you? You can't help but get to questioning the motivation, preparation, and intensity of those top-ranked teams. Were they looking past their opponents? Did they think they could take it easy?

Detroit answered that criticism in devastating fashion in their Game 5 at home.

The Celtics come at their Game 5 led by the player who has been the very embodiment of "basketball passion" all season. They might stumble a third straight time, but it seems unlikely they'll be low-energy with this guy on the floor:

(Horford photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)

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