TrueHoop: Lebron James

Very tidy graphs showing LeBron James' foul rate

February, 1, 2010
Feb 1
6:18
PM ET
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By Henry Abbott
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LeBron James: Gimme a 'Y'

January, 30, 2010
Jan 30
6:01
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz
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Ashley Judd has done it:

I have had so many wonderful memories over the years, but I'll leave you with my most recent. It was March 7 and I was sick with bronchitis, but I made it to Rupp for Senior Day. During the first timeout of the second half, the UK cheerleaders spell out KENTUCKY, and a person from the crowd is asked to come out to make the Y.



And today at Rupp Arena in Lexington, it was LeBron James' turn:

Finding good looks for Kevin Durant

January, 25, 2010
Jan 25
2:35
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz
Archive
Prior to Saturday night's game between Cleveland and Oklahoma City, the Cleveland Plain-Dealer's Brian Windhorst wrote:

I believe the Durant-LeBron matchup could be better than the Kobe-LeBron matchup tonight and for years to come. Durant is a high efficiency scorer, he gets to the line at a high rate, shoots at a high rate and he rebounds better than Kobe. At this point in his career, at least this season because of injuries, Kobe has turned into a volume scorer on a lot of nights. Durant, and James for that matter, aren't. That is why I predict a quality duel.



True to Windhorst's forecast, the mano-a-mano battle was captivating. The two scorers combined for 71 points in a seesaw affair that saw five lead changes in a scintillating fourth quarter. A battle that was waged in the interior for three quarters -- and dominated by Shaquille O'Neal for much of that time -- moved further out to the perimeter in the fourth.

For all of Durant's uptick in efficiency (a PER of 24.58, vs. 20.85 last season), the Thunder have been winning basketball games this season on the strength of their defense, and we saw Oklahoma City make some gritty stands down the stretch. There's a reason it took some huge shot-making by Daniel Gibson for the Cavs to put Oklahoma City away at the Q -- the Thunder clogged the middle, as they've been doing all season.

But just as we're not hearing enough about Oklahoma City's defense amidst the celebratory praise of everyone's favorite youth movement, there's not much discussion of this:

The Thunder have trouble scoring points.

In fact, only nine teams in the League have more trouble.

While that's a marked improvement from last season, when only the Clippers were worse than the Thunder in offensive efficiency, it's a little bit of a head-scratcher for a team blessed with a matchup nightmare like Durant.

Saturday night during the tight fourth quarter, we got a glimpse of the Thunder's struggles when they went more than five minutes without draining a shot from the field. There was a particularly ghastly stretch of seven possessions over which Oklahoma City generated only a single point on a Durant free throw.

What happened to the Thunder in those moments? Was Durant not finding shots he likes? Was it something akin to what the Lakers or Cavs experience at times when the other four guys on the floor stand around watching Bryant or James? Was Durant forcing the issue? Not forcing it enough?

Possession 1 (5:35)
Inefficient offensive units often have a tendency to squander a good 10 seconds before getting into their sets. Finding good shots against a defense as stingy as Cleveland's is a tough business, and the more time you budget to generate those looks the better. By milking 10 seconds off the clock, you also let your opponent off the hook because it requires far less energy to defend for 14 seconds than 24 seconds.

On this possession, rookie combo guard James Harden has the ball up top. It appears that the Thunder might be running a pin-down with Russell Westbrook on the right side to free up Durant, but if that's the case, Westbrook misses Durant's defender, Anthony Parker, altogether. When Durant gets the pass up top and begins working against Parker, James leaves Harden to double team. No surprise there.

Durant, sometimes criticized for being an unwilling passer, kicks the ball out to Harden, who passes up the 3-pointer (he's a 37.7 percent shooter from that distance). Harden instead works off the dribble, but it isn't long before he tosses the grenade back to Durant with the clock expiring. Durant has to settle for a long, contested shot from beyond the arc:



Possession 2 (4:46)
Another half-hearted down screen for Durant, this time by Jeff Green. Now might be a good time to send some film to the Thunder supporting cast of Kendrick Perkins laying out for Boston's perimeter scorers. Space matters, and the more room a team can generate for its primary scorer to work, the more efficient that offense is going to run. Fortunately for Durant, Serge Ibaka gets himself between Durant and Parker. This gives Durant one of his better looks at the basket in the fourth quarter, though it's not wide open. Why not?

Check out Shaquille O'Neal! You won't see him step up to challenge a shooter on a pick-and-roll very often, but here he sticks a big limb in Durant's face:



Possession 3 (4:23)
It's not a coincidence that Oklahoma City draws a foul early in the possession. Notice how much more quickly and decisively they challenge Cleveland, as Durant makes Parker chase him from the moment they cross the time line?

After the inbound, though, the Thunder have a difficult time freeing up Durant. Throw some credit Anthony Parker's way. Time and time again in the fourth quarter, he dodges Thunder picks, not yielding an inch to Durant. There's a telling moment at the 10-second mark. Watch:



See how Westbrook picks up his dribble? He assumes that he'll lob a simple entry pass to Durant, but Parker is doing such a good job denying that pass that Westbrook has to swing the ball over to Sefolosha in order to get his dribble back on the return. At that point, Westbrook has to freelance, and Daniel Gibson -- yes that Daniel Gibson -- blocks his runner as the clock expires.


(Read full post)

Saturday Bullets

January, 23, 2010
Jan 23
2:41
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz
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The Cranky Guy in the Easy Chair

January, 22, 2010
Jan 22
10:53
AM ET
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By Henry Abbott
Archive

When I watch basketball on TV, I take notes.

Near the end of last night's Cavaliers win over the Lakers, I scanned my notes and wondered: When did I become a cranky old man?

Some examples my inner Andy Rooney:
  • The Lakers in home yellow, the Cavaliers in wine and gold. Would it be so hard for the home team to wear a light color and the road team to wear their regular team color? (I know teams want to bleed every last penny from jersey collectors, but enough already. I miss the days when you could glance across a crowded bar and know who was playing, and where, from the uniforms. How about that Sundiata Gaines game the other night? The Jazz, a team whose colors are light blue, dark blue and white, and who traditionally wear white at home, wore green and yellow. The Cavaliers, who usually wear "wine and gold" on the road, wore white.)
  • With about 40 seconds left in the first quarter, Kobe Bryant completed one of the most amazing travels I have ever seen. He was running, initiating a fast-break. Before reaching half-court, he picked up his dribble with one hand, apparently to pass. Then he decided not to pass, switched hands with the ball, all while running, and started dribbling again. Watched it several times in slow-motion. The referees were sprinting to the other end themselves and were looking where they were going. If this had been pick-up basketball, Bryant would have just handed the ball to the other team without an argument.
  • You know what's wrong with basketball? Not guns, not gambling, not any of that. The biggest problem in basketball is free throws. If there was some way to severely reduce the amount of standing around in games, I think games would be a lot more fun to watch in TV or in person.
  • Ends of quarters really matter, not because of some weird "this is when winning teams score" voodoo. But because that's the only time in the game when a team can gain an extra possession. All game long, possessions alternate. (If my my team gets four straight offensive rebounds, that still counts as one possession. Possessions are not the same as plays, or scoring opportunities.) The only exception is at the end of the period -- because possession at the beginning of the next quarter is determined by who wins the opening tip. So here's a chance to take a shot, and make it or miss, and then (after the break) inbound the ball and take another shot. A typical NBA game is decided by three points or so. A couple of extra possessions matter! I think the Lakers know this -- they had the ball at the end of every single quarter of last night's game. In the first two quarters, they got it by fouling -- with seven seconds left in the first quarter, five in the second. I'm not saying those fouls were intentional, but in those moments, I'd sure coach my players to be extra aggressive. Either you get the stop, or you get the only fouls of the game that are rewarded with free possessions.
  • This game could go down in history as the "heat check" game. In the big spotlight, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant were both eager to prove how good they are, so they both indulged mightily in the worst parts of their games. If the Cavaliers had ended up losing, people would have had some serious questions about some of James' shot selection. (Also worth noting, Ron Artest also threw up some heat checks, but that's just what he does.)

  • Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images
    One of these players is bigger.




  • With about forty seconds left in the game, and the game tied, LeBron James drove to the left of the hoop and made a tough runner over two defenders -- his man Artest and the helping Lamar Odom. Remember this point. Superstar wing scoring over a helping big.
  • As soon as that happened, the Cavaliers wanted Anthony Parker in the game for Daniel Gibson. Phil Jackson didn't call a timeout to let that good defender into the game. Clever.
  • Then the Lakers ran a high pick-and-roll with Pau Gasol setting a high screen for Bryant. The brilliant part of this is that the guy guarding Gasol is charged with slowing Bryant so Delonte West could catch up. That guy was ... Shaquille O'Neal. There are a lot of things O'Neal can't do anymore. One of them is slow someone like Bryant on the perimeter. That requires nimble lateral movement, and it's not that O'Neal's lateral movement is slow at this point of his career. It's that it's gone. He just doesn't have that anymore. O'Neal made a little jab toward Bryant. The Laker star easily manuevered past and paraded into the paint unimpeded until other, more nimble Cavs were able to help, as O'Neal watched from a distance. (Prediction: O'Neal will sit for crunch time of many big playoff games. You can't play him on offense if you're ahead -- the other team would love to send that poor free-throw shooter to the line. And on defense, this is an example of what could happen against some teams.)
  • Once in the lane, Bryant attempted a shot much like the one James had just made -- a runner from the left side of the paint. West was there, but Bryant's real issue was a helping Anderson Varejao. Varejao flew in and bothered the shot, either by blocking it or making Bryant change it at the last moment. Some will point out that 100% healthy, Bryant would have scored easily, and thay may be true. On this night, his finger injury loomed large. I also believe, however, that if Bryant were the size of James, he could have brushed off Varejao, like James did Odom. But Bryant's a little smaller, and Varejao bothered that shot, despite Bryant's tremendous position near the hoop. It's not fair, or right, but size matters in this game, and James has a little more of it.

LeBron's new shoes say, 'I Love New York'

December, 31, 2009
Dec 31
2:28
PM ET
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By Royce Young

I have no idea what LeBron James plans to do this summer. I'm not smart enough to speculate nor do I really want to even try. I'm perfectly content with just waiting and seeing. But you must admit, things like his new shoe (which had photos leaked today), the Nike Air Max LeBron VII Hardwood Classic Edition, make this whole thing very... interesting.

Now, I'm no sneaker guy, so I don't really know much about it all, but the fact the shoe is clearly in Knick colors (even down the orange speckles on the shoe laces) is something to take note of. But then again, in the 80s, the Cavs wore orange and blue uniforms and LeBron's Cavs have been known to wear those unis as throwbacks. Ah, case closed. However, I don't think those old uniforms had an "I Love New York" patch on them. Well then.

UPDATE: I, among many, was had. The shoes are evidently a fake.

Thursday Bullets

December, 31, 2009
Dec 31
1:24
PM ET
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Posted by Royce Young
  • Brett LaGree of Hoopinion on the "malfunction": "On one hand, the Hawks' behavior on this possession is fairly typical of their second half possessions as a whole. That the Hawks were initiating their halfcourt offense relatively late in the shot clock was not, in and of itself, unusual. None of which negates the fact that the officials should have noticed a ten-second discrepancy on the shot clock, that the shot clock should have reset, or that the Hawks should have noticed and said something (or called a timeout) at the time rather than one possession later."
  • Video breakdown of three crucial possessions in the Clippers-Blazers game including two big 3-pointers by Steve Blake. Kevin Arnovitz adds this note: "Baron, like a lot of point guards, spends most of his time playing the ball and is less instinctive defending off it. He’s drawn to the ball, but his man, Blake, functions as a wing on this set. I suppose you could say that, as a defensive unit, you can never have too many bodies between Roy and the basket given the personnel out there for Portland. But the better play by Baron here is to squeeze Blake and, at the very least, make it a much tougher pass."
  • Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns says Phoenix may have gotten its swagger back after the big win over Boston: "A couple months down the line when we look back on the Dec. 30 game on Phoenix’s schedule, “Suns 116, Celtics 98” will look much better than it was in real life. The game notes say the Suns joined last year’s world champion Lakers as the only teams to sweep a season series from the Celtics before the Big Three joined up prior to the 2007-08 campaign. But anybody who watched this game knows that the Suns beat a woefully undermanned Boston team missing Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce that wouldn’t contend for the eighth spot in the East with the lineup they threw out there."
  • If you haven't checked out Hoopdata, you should right now. Like stop reading and check it out. You can spend hours just staring at the awesome advanced box scores. Tom Haberstoh had an interesting piece yesterday about how the Lakers give up the most shots at the rim: "The Lakers allow 29.9 shot attempts per game from at the rim but opponents only convert 57.5 percent of these shots, which ranks the sixth lowest in the league. So while the Lakers give up a lot of shot attempts at the rim, they are not necessarily easy buckets. Instead ... the Lakers defend the hoop by not fouling close to the basket and forcing opponents to shoot over trees in the form of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. In all likelihood, the Lakers utilize their length by standing tall to alter shots in the paint as opposed to overtly swatting lofted balls into the stands, given their league-average block rate, league-leading at rim shot frequency, and second-lowest opponent free throw rate."
  • David Berri tries to explain the incredible disappointment that is the Washington Wizards. Cliff notes: Play better. He makes it sound so simple.
  • Basketbawful noticed an interesting quote from Doc Rivers about the Celtics' 1-3 road trip. Said Rivers: "'The lesson that's learned on this trip is not from tonight. The lesson that we should learn on this trip is when you give away a game with the Clippers when you're healthy, then you do it again, then when you're injured you need those games back.' I love the fact that he singled out the Clippers and not the Warriors."

Seven questions for 2010

December, 30, 2009
Dec 30
7:50
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz
Archive
One of the simple ways of experiencing basketball is by talking about it with people who share your love of the game. One of the people I enjoy rapping with is John Krolik of Cavs the Blog and SLAM Online. The best conversations are the ones that produce interesting questions, then aim to answer them. Here are some of those questions about the NBA John and I have been bouncing around in our last couple of conversations:


D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images
Combo Plate: A ball-handling scorer ... and a scoring ball-handler.


As guys get freakier and more athletic, are we witnessing an end to positional orthodoxy?
JK: We're definitely seeing a lot of blurring in positional lines, particularly outside of the center position. One thing in particular I like is the rise of the true combo guard. Early in the decade, we got a lot of alleged "combo guards" who were really just superpowered bench gunners given control of teams with mixed results; Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, et cetera. (Iverson is Iverson.)

But now we're really starting to see effective players who are a cross between the one and the two in a good way, and they're being complimented with other multi-skilled guards rather than going with a strict point guard/shooting guard backcourt. In San Antonio, they put Tony Parker, who's a great scorer for a point, next to Manu, who's a great playmaker for a shooting guard, and things went well. The double-combo backcourt of Mo Williams and Delonte West turned Cleveland's backcourt from a disaster area to a huge strength last season. Even Jason Kidd, the truest of points, is playing with JET and JJ Barea, and has even become adept at knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s off of other people's assists. Phil Jackson's won only 10 championships using an offense that doesn't require a traditional point. And so many young combo guards are coming in with tons of talent: Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings and even John Wall, who should definitely be put next to a guy who can pass and shoot when he comes into the league so that he can spend some time in each game going on guilt-free scoring rampages. Wall might be the combo-guard messiah.

KA: This is a beautiful trend because it's created a much more diverse range of basketball styles. Very few teams around the league look alike, even though many of them run much of the same stuff. The fact that so many players can do so many different things on the floor creates an exponentially greater number of things a team can do schematically. On many teams, shots on the floor can be drawn up for almost any player at any spot! Part of this can be attributed to athleticism. One the things that made a power forward or a center a big men was his ability to perform big men tasks -- rebounding, shot-blocking, the ability to routinely get high-percentage shots close to the rim. Today's NBA perimeter players have the athleticism to do a lot of that -- and many of the bigger guys in the league have perimeter skills, as well.

This seems like a nice segue to ...

Do traditional big men have a future?
KA: Whether you chalk it up to the prohibition of hand-checking or the stylings of Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns teams (I'd argue that former rendered the latter), the professional game has undergone a seismic shift over the past decade. Perimeter play has taken over. Today's power forwards have big guard games and two of the top three players in 3-point attempts are 6-foot-10. It's a world gone mad, but you can't complain about the product on the court. The NBA has never been more fun to watch, and we're just getting started...

...or are we?

Trends have a way of feeling permanent while they're being experienced, but they rarely last forever. At some point, laws of macroeconomics take over. Right now, there aren't more than a handful of big men in basketball who have refined post moves and can drain a running right-handed hook with consistency. Teams don't value those attributes as much as speed and 3-point shooting. But as more and more players have the ability to drain 100-200 3-pointers per season at a 40 percent clip, the demand will shift. Kids who arrive on the NBA's doorstep with the ability to dominate the game inside with uncanny efficiency will be shopping skills that few teams will be able to defend.

JK: I'd say the hand-check rules imposed an artificial set of circumstances that forced a change, so I don't think we'll see the pendulum swing all the way back to where it was. But I think guys are finding out that even though big men need to be faster and more skilled than they used to be and can't count on getting minutes just because they can score with their backs to the basket and do nothing else (i.e. Eddy Curry), the post-up game is still a valuable weapon. Look at the Lakers. Andrew Bynum, when he's engaged, defends the rim, gets rebounds and is quick enough to find room and finish off of others, but also posts up. Pau Gasol plays the high-post, runs the floor, gets rebounds, passes beautifully and can knock down the mid-range jumper, but also has a wonderful post game. And of course Kobe can and does do just about anything that's possible for a basketball player to do, but also utilizes the post game.

I'd say that the post-up specialist won't be in vogue again in the foreseeable future, but more and more bigs and wings who can do what's demanded of them in the post hand-check NBA are going to find that the actual post game is still a hugely valuable weapon, especially as fewer and fewer teams know how to defend it.

Of the current young up-and-coming teams, which ones are for real and which ones will provide an entertaining illusion of success?
KA: When sizing up a team's future prospects, the first thing I ask myself is, "Can I imagine this team ranking in the top half of the league defensively?"


Oklahoma City is the quintessential upstart squad. They're fun, charismatic, dynamic, athletic ... and not all that impressive as an offensive unit. It's the Thunder's defense that's led them to a 17-14 record this season. So long as tough, lanky defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha are patrolling the perimeter (and James Harden too), opponents are going to have a tough time scoring against them. With that Kevin Durant angle pick-and-roll as the anchor of their offense, they're a good bet to win a playoff series sometime soon.

Brandon Jennings has sparked any and all attention the Bucks have received this season, but Milwaukee's frontcourt of Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute have put up gritty defensive numbers. Mbah a Moute comes as no surprise, but I was shocked by Bogut's stats, until I looked at his figures under Scott Skiles last season -- also really, really good. Once they get a (healthy) shooting guard who can play drive-and-kick off the Jennings-Bogut pick-and-roll, the Bucks could be dangerous under a coach who was booted from his last gig in Chicago after assembling the league's top-ranked defense and the Eastern Conference's 3rd best record the previous season.

Sacramento's lousy defensive numbers don't concern me right now. They strike me as a team that's going to experience a major overhaul over the next 18 months, and a big part of that metamorphosis will be acquiring some pieces around Tyreke Evans who can defend. I have less faith in Memphis, Minnesota, Golden State and, to a slightly lesser extent, Philadelphia, who all have rosters riddled with defensive ciphers.

JK: I think Oklahoma City wins a playoff series when their backcourt clicks into place, and that's close to happening. I love Westbrook's game and think he has a ton of potential, but he just needs to be more disciplined. He pushes the ball, plays great defense, and does all these little things, but then he'll throw up a bad jumper, brick a full-speed reverse layup, or make a silly pass, and his true shooting percentage and turnover rates are way off of where they need to be because of that. It'll be interesting to see if the answer there is Harden maturing to the point where he can play 30-35 minutes a game and cover some of Westbrook's weaknesses with his shooting, playmaking and ability to create off the drive. (Combo guards!) But I think that young frontcourt is the envy of a lot of teams in the league, Sam Presti keeps getting valuable pieces without giving up much, and I'd call the future very bright there.

For Sacramento, the short-term question is how Tyreke is going to work with Kevin Martin. They might cancel each other out or become absolutely unstoppable together, although they might need to do the latter to make up for Martin's suspect defense. But Thompson, Hawes, Casspi, and even Brockman all look like keepers, and Tyreke has given every indication that he can be built around.

In Milwaukee, I think they should be having serious brainstorms on how they can hide Mbah a Moute on offense so they can keep him on the floor longer, maybe even looking for a stretch four so they can put Mbah a Moute closer to the basket offensively and use him like Detroit used Ben Wallace. He's that good defensively.

I agree with you about the rest of the teams, although I give Memphis some upside because I think it's a bit too early to completely give up on Hasheem Thabeet as an impact player defensively; if Orlando could build a defense around Howard and four perimeter guys, there's a chance Memphis can as well. (A chance, mind you.)

What is it about Stan Van Gundy that we like so much?
JK: I think we've got a pretty narrow view of how to evaluate coaches, because we don't see the vast majority of what they do and we're trained to look for their failures and not their successes. Coaches almost exist to be fired, and every time they make a mistake with their play-call or substitution, it'll get talked about the next day.

I think the biggest job of a coach isn't to call timeouts strategically or be a genius with his in game substitutions. (Although both are definitely important, especially the latter.) I think the job of an NBA coach is to set up a system that best utilizes the talents he has available to him, and that's where Stan Van Gundy comes in, especially last season. Of his five starters, he had three guys with below-average defensive reputations, Dwight Howard, and a rookie.

Instead of trying to have everyone play straight-up or stick Rashard Lewis at the three, he evaluated what he had -- the best shot-blocker in the league and more quickness on the perimeter than most other teams had. So he stuck Lewis at the 4 and never looked back, and built a defense around running other teams off threes and keeping Howard at home under the basket. What happened? The Magic gave up the second fewest made baskets at the rim, the second fewest made 3s per game, and more shots from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet than any other team in the league. They also had one of the league's three best defenses in terms of efficiency.

Offensively, he had Dwight Howard, who can catch and finish with the best of them but isn't a great post player, more shooting and playmaking at the forward spots than most anyone, and a bunch of guys who can shoot threes. So he had Howard look for catches at the rim, ran 3/4 screen-rolls, and had his players shoot a bunch of threes rather than try to do what everyone else was doing. Van Gundy's failures last season were there for the world to see, but what he did extremely well was more subtle.

KA: I like his press conferences, too. The irony of Van Gundy is that popular perception sometimes paints him as inflexible. But as you said, no coach sculpted a more sensible system for his personnel last season than Van Gundy. He did a full appraisal of his talent, saw where he had edges over his opponents at each position (ballhanding at the 3, shooting at the 4, mobility at the 5) and designed his offense to exploit those advantages.

This isn't to say there's anything wrong with building an elite team by first implementing the system, then by populating that system with players whose talents most conform to it. Whatever works, by all means. Just win. But the ability to create a system around a disparate collection of talent that was brought together randomly is in many ways even more impressive.

Should LeBron James be playing more power forward?
KA: Despite James’ size, strength and efficiency on the glass, Mike Brown has him firmly situated at the small forward slot. In fact, you have to go pretty far down the list of Cleveland’s 5-man lineups to find units in which James is playing power forward. But in the six lineups that feature James surrounded by one traditional big man and three smaller players for at least 10 minutes, the Cavs outscore their opponents 96-83 (prorated for 48 minutes).


Those numbers are enough for me, but let’s think about it in practical terms. We’ve already discussed how positional dogma is a thing of the past in an NBA that’s much smaller than it was 10 years ago. When thinking about how to best maximize LeBron in the half-court, wouldn't you prefer that he drag a bigger defender out to him in order to create more space on the floor for your offense? And defensively, wouldn’t a team like Cleveland, whose primary weakness has been its plodding frontcourt, be better served by having LeBron cover Rashard Lewis on Orlando’s pick-and-pop or Boston’s bigs on the Celtics’ rotating screen-and-rolls? Doesn’t it make more sense to challenge Stan Van Gundy and Doc Rivers to match up with a more athletic lineup? And wouldn’t Cleveland benefit from more transition opportunities?

Would team rebounding suffer? When you look at those aforementioned six lineups with LeBron at the 4, the answer is no. Apart from the political stickiness of limiting the minutes of the Cavs' veteran big men, I have trouble seeing how making the Cavs a more athletic team around LeBron comes with much downside.

JK: The short answer is that I'm extremely confused as to why LeBron doesn't get more time at the 4 position, at least for around 10 minutes of his time on the floor. I understand some of the reasoning behind not giving him significant minutes down there. The Cavs show hard on every perimeter screen, which would require LeBron expending more energy on the defensive end than the Cavs are comfortable with, especially in the first three quarters. And of course, the Cavs don't want LeBron in foul trouble under any circumstances. And generally speaking, the Cavs' big men are better players than Jamario Moon, who typically plays the 3 in the Cavs' small-ball lineup. But LeBron getting the ball in the 10-15 foot range and making his move from down there is absolutely deadly, and that small-ball lineup should definitely be something used more often to keep opposing teams on their toes.

What confuses me more than anything is that while the Shaq/Varejao frontcourt has some offensive issues and the Shaq/Hickson frontcourt has some serious defensive issues, a Shaq/LeBron frontcourt hasn't been tried at all this season, and I mean at all. I suppose the reasoning is that LeBron would be forced to expend way too much energy on the perimeter defensively as Shaq sags to the paint on pick-and-rolls (LeBron's never gotten minutes at the four alongside Z either), but with the Cavs supposedly looking for a "stretch 4" at the deadline to make life easier for Shaq, it's odd that they haven't at least tried using LeBron in that role.


Danny Bollinger/NBAE/Getty Images
There are nights when the Mavericks look deadly serious.


How Real is Dallas?
KA: Little known fact: Of the 50 5-man units that have played together the most this season, two of the top three in overall efficiency belong to the Dallas Mavericks. Whether it's Jason Terry or J.J. Barea at the shooting guard, the Mavs' big names are absolutely crushing their opponents on both ends of the floor. Dallas is a Top 5 defensive squad and features one of the game's great shotmakers in Dirk Nowitzki. They also have tremendous flexibility to match up with opponents on either end. They can play old-school or new-school. Want to tease the Mavs with small ball? That's fine, because they're perfectly good going with three guards and moving Shawn Marion and Nowitzki into the frontcourt. Want to try to outmuscle them? Erick Dampier may have an outsized contract, but he's also one of the better basket protectors and garbage collectors in the league. Opponents shoot a measly 57.4 percent at the rim against the Mavs -- only Boston, Cleveland and San Antonio are better.

More than anything, the Mavs strike me as a team composed of professionals. These are serious basketball players led by a serious coach. Is it possible that a squad with so many thirtysomethings breaks down physically over the course of an 82-game season? Perhaps. But where some see brittleness, I see experience. In fact, I see shades of the best San Antonio Spurs squads. I see a team that truly understands its collective talents and limitations and puts a premium on execution.

Can they compete with the Lakers in late May? I'm not sure anyone in the Western Conference can, but Dallas -- with its length, smarts, and perimeter prowess -- might just be the toughest competition the Lakers encounter.

JK: Dallas has a ton of talent, Dirk is right up there with the best players in the league, and the team defends. My caveat would be that they're thinner than people think, and much more dependent on Dirk. As of December 26th, Dallas was +11.6 points per 100 possessions with Dirk on the floor and a stunning -16.5 points per 100 with Dirk on the bench. As bad as LeBron and Kobe's benches are, their teams are only -8 when they sit, to offer some perspective.

A lot of that has to do with Drew Gooden; Gooden's plus-minus is -23.1, and as someone who's watched a good deal of Gooden in his life, I can tell you that's not random noise. Drew Gooden is the anti-Battier. I'm also not a huge J.J. Barea fan. He's fun to watch and works fairly well with Kidd offensively, but I believe you were the one who said he plays defense "like a man frantically searching for his car keys," and the plus-minus numbers support the theory that Barea's somewhat of a defensive liability. Dallas can play with anyone, especially when Dirk's on the floor, and if they do something to get a better backup for Dirk than Gooden and hide Barea's defense a little better (maybe play more Beaubois, who's gone through growing pains and will probably continue to do so, but has lockdown defensive potential), I'd call them a true force to be reckoned with in the West. If not, I'd say they have a solid puncher's chance of knocking the Lakers off their Western Conference throne.

How do we begin to make sense of adjusted plus-minus?
JK: Outside of the obvious conclusion, which is "no one stat or metric, no matter how advanced or intricate, is ever going to come close to saying everything about one player," I have two thoughts on adjusted plus-minus.

The first is that I get how the basic +/- you see in box scores and 82games.com's version of plus-minus work, but I still don't totally understand how advanced plus-minus works, and that's a problem. I mean, I get the theory, that it adjusts for having good or bad teammates or playing against good and bad opponents, but how exactly does it define "good" and "bad"? Is "good" based on the other guy's adjusted plus-minus, or is the value of others derived from something like Player Efficiency Rating? Aren't both approaches problematic? Right now, adjusted plus-minus is sort of "He's good. Trust me," which I have trouble swallowing as a fan and certainly can't use to convince friends or readers of a guy's value.

The second problem is one that will get fixed over time, which is that we still don't really know how to read plus-minus type stats yet. We know with a stat like field goal percentage that a shooting guard is going to have a lower field goal percentage than a center, but we also know that the guard is probably shooting more 3s, shooting his free throws better and taking tougher shots than the center. We know how to read that stat.

But because plus-minus is one number and so nebulous, we don't know which plus-minus numbers to take with a grain of salt and which ones not to. I'll bring up the semi-infamous Durant example here. Durant had terrible +/- ratings for his first two seasons, but has been incredible in year three. Was the Durant phenomenon ever even real, or did Durant actually improve this year in ways the stats didn't see? If we want plus-minus metrics to be as legitimate as the box score ones, we have to stress-test it like we have the conventional numbers that came before them.

KA: I'm drawn to adjusted plus-minus because I'm desperate to find any metric that will approximate a player's defensive value, something we just don't have the tools to do right now. I'm more faithful than I probably should be given the lack of stress tests you talk about. Your point is well-taken and I'd add that stats like these are only valuable to the extent that they're predictive. There will always be players who make colossal jumps or experience unusual crashes in productivity, but apart from outliers, a stat must be dependable enough to offer a clear -- if general -- estimation of what that player is worth in the past, present and likely future. I've begun to spend more time examining the adjusted plus-minus numbers of 5-man units rather than individuals, in part because it seems more practical.

I suspect we'll know a lot more in three to five years than we do now. The metric's practitioners (and the people who trust them) will have a better sense of where the numbers skews, what those number might miss and the kind of noise those numbers create. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the 2-year figures (and eventually 3-year, and 4-year). Any system that values Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant as the five best players in the NBA has to be on to something, right?

Wednesday Bullets

December, 30, 2009
Dec 30
12:19
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz
Archive
  • You know that old basketball meme that says a coach drawing a technical foul is one way to fire up his team? As Bret LaGree of Hoopinion enumerates, the possessions following Mike Woodson's technical last night in Atlanta were every bit as ugly as the ones that preceded it. Hoopinion also had this morsel in its recap of the Hawks' loss to Cleveland: "It's easier ... to work in isolation ... than to put in the hard, collaborative work to integrate five players in a productive concert of motion. It's easier to walk the ball up the court than it is to work hard to get the ball, be it via turnover or defensive rebound, then press on to push the ball up the court and attack a defense before it's set."
  • The Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman on the relationship between Alonzo Mourning-Michael Beasley: "Michael and Zo talk just about every day immediately after practice. Zo also pops his head into the locker room after games, looks at Beasley, shakes his head with a smile, and keeps on going. When Zo is looking to take his kid home after games, you're not sure if he means Trey, his 13 year old, or Michael, his 20 year old."
  • Dave McMenamin of ESPN Los Angeles on the mystery surrounding Ron Artest's concussion: "The problem is we still don't know what happened because he doesn't know what happened. During the course of the impromptu 10-minute long press conference at halftime, Artest said some variation of the phrase 'I can't remember' 15 times."
  • Rahat Huq of Red94 on the mixed emotions that accompany Tracy McGrady's departure: "This team, as currently composed, will need an elite player to attain the heights it seeks. While the vision had crumbled of McGrady once more becoming that player, I felt he could at least masquerade in the role, utilizing the vestiges that still remained of a once deadly arsenal, boosting the team through close fourth quarters. But that will not happen – Tracy McGrady is gone."
  • Zach Lowe noticed an interesting trend when the deliberate Celtics' offense confronts one of the league's get-out-and-run squads, at least prior to the Celtics' loss at Oakland Monday night: "Bizarrely, the C’s have had a lot more trouble against the hares of the league when they drag the hares down to Boston’s own tortoise pace. When they give in and run like crazy at the hares preferred speed, the C’s have been 6-0 against Golden State, Indiana, New York, Phoenix and Minnesota since the start of last season."
  • It's a pretty amazing feat: The last time the San Antonio Spurs weren't a top five team in defensive efficiency was 1996-97. This season, they rank 14th. Basketball Free For All examines the roster to figure out why.
  • Graydon Gordian of 48 Minutes of Hell gets the full Gregg Popovich treatment during the postgame press conference following the Spurs win over Minnesota.
  • The Bobcats and Raptors meet tonight in Toronto. In their last meeting at Charlotte, the Raps lost by 35. Zarar Siddiqi on the pre-Thanksgiving massacre: "You might recall the last Bobcats game, it’s the one where you almost stopped being a fan. You know how in movies when a violent crime is committed against somebody, the memory is a bit hazy and they only remember the most shocking parts, and when the police asks them to recall the events of that miserable night, they burst into tears because they just remembered how awful it all really was."
  • According to Dan Steinberg of D.C. Sports Bog, it appears as if the Washington Times won't have sports section after tomorrow.
  • What's sent the Wizards spiraling from respectability? Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm offers this theory: "In a way, LeBron killed it. And I know that hurts.But when he spoke to Gilbert at the line, something changed. Nothing was right after that. It was just disaster after disaster, be it the quiet unfortunate kind (the playoff elimination sans Gilbert), the abject demolition (the injury 08-09 season), or this year, the death of hope."
  • Clippers center DeAndre Jordan tweets: "My boy @Baron_Davis came to the plane in a cashmere robe and sweats, so we decided it was time for a photo shoot babyyyyyyy ... http://tl.gd/1d7io"

Monday Bullets

December, 28, 2009
Dec 28
5:20
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By Kevin Arnovitz
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Thursday Bullets

December, 24, 2009
Dec 24
3:03
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By Kevin Arnovitz
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LeBron James, thinking like an MVP

December, 4, 2009
Dec 4
10:03
AM ET
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By Henry Abbott
Archive
Terry Pluto and Brian Windhorst's new book "LeBron James: The Making of an MVP" capitalizes on the two Ohio-based sportswriters' deep knowledge of LeBron James and his career to date. They have been kind enough to let us excerpt the book on TrueHoop. Chapter 18 is called "I Have to be 10 Times Better" and occurs just after the Spurs humiliated the Cavaliers in the 2007 NBA Finals.

LeBron James' journey to the 2009 Most Valuable Player award began in silence.

It was the day after the Cleveland Cavaliers were swept out of the 2007 NBA Finals by the San Antonio Spurs. As is usual at the end of the season, the players arrived at the arena to clean out their lockers and talk a bit to the coaches and media about the season.

[+] EnlargeLeBron James: The Making of an MVP
Gray & Company, PublishersAvailable in paperback.
LeBron had nothing to say -- to anyone. He was exhausted. He was discouraged.

He didn't take much satisfaction from the Cavs knocking out the Detroit Pistons in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals. What bothered LeBron was knowing that the Cavaliers were not good enough to win a championship. He'd never say it, but when any serious basketball person thought of a starting backcourt for a contending team, Sasha Pavlovic and Larry Hughes didn't come to mind.

In fact, it was amazing the Cavs had won 50 games with those guards. That they had knocked off Detroit in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Or that a team with only three notable big men in Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao had even played in the Finals. The team needed work, and LeBron knew it.

He looked back at the San Antonio sweep and knew it wasn't all the fault (or lack of talent) of his teammates. In those four games, he shot 36 percent from the field. In those four games, he made 22 turnovers. In those four games, he couldn't get to the basket as he wanted; he couldn't find the touch on his jumper. In those four games, he felt very human. "I need to definitely get better," LeBron said immediately after the Finals. "Once I get better, our team will automatically get better, and I know that. I have to do everything that I've done well and try to improve in order for us to be a better team next year."

LeBron noticed the Spurs were daring him to shoot ... not just long distance from three-point range, but closer to the basket. They gave him open 18-footers. Open 15-footers. He even struggled at the foul line, making only 69 percent.

"We went up against a better team in this series, and everybody has to be better coming into next season," LeBron said. "I have to be ten times better. Our team has to be ten times better. We have to be better. Me, as an individual, I have to be much better on and off the court, and that will carry our team to higher levels. I think it starts with me first and then it will trickle down to everybody else."

This is where it's so easy to forget that LeBron was only 22 years old, so easy to forget that athletes of any age tend to make excuses for themselves and their teams -- or settle for finishing second. It would have been natural for LeBron to think about how no one expected the Cavs to beat Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals, much less play for a title. It would have been tempting for most players to shrug off the poor shooting in the Finals as a product of not having much help from his teammates. Larry Hughes was hurt, having played only two games and scored a grand total of two points. Zydrunas Ilgauskas had had a rough series, shooting only 45 percent and averaging 7.8 points. Other than Drew Gooden (12.8 points, 8.3 rebounds), no other Cavalier even played his normal game against the Spurs.

More than a few players in LeBron's position would say, Hey, I carried this team on my back all season. I had to score 29 of the last 30 points in Game 5 at Detroit to even put us in position to win the Piston series. But he didn't. Nor did he ever mention his stats from the final four games of the Detroit series -- all victories -- when he averaged an eye-popping 31.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists. Those are Hall of Fame-level numbers.

LeBron played more total minutes during the 2006-07 regular season than anyone in the NBA. He was asked about being tired as a reason for his poor performance in the Finals, but at the press conference, he said: "I felt great throughout the season. Everyone is injured at this point, everyone is a little fatigued. It's not an excuse ... My turnovers are uncharacteristic, a lot of unforced errors, me losing the ball or making bad passes. It's all things I can control, and I wasn't able to do that."

As a basketball player, this was the first time that LeBron believed he had failed. Not that he had expected the Cavs to beat the Spurs, although LeBron goes into every game, every series, convinced he can find a way to make his team win. But just as certain, LeBron never, ever, even in his worst nightmare, expected his team to be swept out in four games. This was worse than losing the state championship in his junior year at St. Vincent-St. Mary, when he failed to make a big play at the end of a close game. That was one game, one play. It hurt, and there were tears when it was over, but it felt more like a fluke. In that game, LeBron's team lost 71-63 to Cincinnati's Roger Bacon High School. LeBron scored 32 points, but had seven turnovers and only three rebounds and six assists. In his heart, LeBron believed if his high school team had played a best-of-7 series with Roger Bacon, it would have won.

And in his heart, LeBron knew that no matter how many games the series would be with those 2007 San Antonio Spurs, the Cavaliers would have lost. He had struggled against that defense. To shoot 36 percent? To make 22 turnovers in those four games? To not even be sure of where he wanted to go on the court to get a shot? Over and over, those thoughts haunted him. It wasn't just that his team had been swept. He believed he had let the team down.

That trip to the 2007 NBA Finals whispered this to LeBron, "You are not good enough. Other players are better." LeBron never said any of this out loud, but it haunted him when he took off two weeks following the season. It demanded that he realize something else -- by the Finals, he was physically tired, emotionally drained. He may have been one of the most unique physical specimens in the NBA, but LeBron came to the realization that not only must his game improve -- but he had to get in better shape.

LeBron didn't stay on the court to watch the Spurs receive their championship trophy. "I didn't turn around to look at it," he said. "I've seen other teams win a title before, me watching on TV. I knew what they were doing. But I didn't want to look at it."

After the series, Spurs star Tim Duncan told LeBron, "Someday, this league is going to belong to you."

Those words had significance for him, but he knew there was a long road for him to travel if he wanted to reach Duncan's MVP and championship level.

Adapted from the book "LeBron James: The Making of an MVP"Š 2009 by Terry Pluto and Brian Windhorst. Reprinted with permission of Gray & Company, Publishers. This text may not be reproduced in any form or manner without written permission of Gray & Company, Publishers. For more information about the book, visit the Gray & Company website.

LeBron James, full-court quarterback

December, 3, 2009
Dec 3
5:46
PM ET
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By Henry Abbott

Watch what LeBron James does with this football. If you miss it the first time, don't worry -- they replay it about a dozen times. And it's almost worth watching that many times.

LeBron James: How to perfect the nearly perfect

December, 1, 2009
Dec 1
5:41
PM ET
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By Kevin Arnovitz

Professionals in any field pick up new tricks all the time. To a great extent, that's what makes them professionals -- a willingness to sculpt their craft so finely that any remaining flaws are nearly invisible. Kobe Bryant spent a good amount of his offseason developing a more refined post game, even though he was already one of the more dominant post-up guards in the league. Bryant could probably subsist off his current skill set for several more years, especially when you consider his supporting cast and the offensive system in which he works. Did Bryant decide to improve his post moves because he has an insatiable appetite to become better or is it possible that, after 31 years on the planet, Bryant discovered that improvement would no longer come without deliberate pursuit?

Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images
The No. 1 item on James' to-do list: Elevating his post game.


LeBron James is considerably younger than Bryant, though already regarded as his equal (and, by some, his superior.) It's not unreasonable to expect that if James did nothing along the lines of creating a specialized summer workout regimen to strategically target some facet of his game, he'd still improve as a basketball player each of the next five or six years. This isn't to say that James doesn't have to work at his game, but so much of his growth as a player will evolve naturally. That's his gift.

John Krolik of Cavs the Blog watches as much LeBron James as anyone this side of the Cavaliers' video coordinators. For Krolik, the part of James' portfolio most in need of improvement is his work in the post. On Cavs the Blog, he offers James a "to-do list" to this effect.

Krolik sees three issues for James in the post: Comfort, Motivation and Power.

Comfort
James feels most settled on the floor as a potential playmaker, either for himself or others. But as he moves deeper into the paint, some of that playmaking potential is complicated:

When LeBron’s on the court, at least for the vast majority of the game, he never stops being a passer. And it’s clear that he’s just not as comfortable making plays from deep in the post as he is making them from further out, where he can see the defense better and there’s more room in the paint for cutters. LeBron doesn’t score very much in the post, but what he does do all the time is start backing his man down, wait for the double-team, and immediately pass to the open man, either hitting the man up top or skipping it all the way to the corner for a three. It’s not terribly effective, honestly, because he tends to hesitate a little too much and get the double 10-15 feet out, where the defense can still recover.

But it’s clearly a big reason LeBron doesn’t like to get deep in with his back to the basket is that he loses some of his passing angles when he does it, or at least isn’t comfortable with the ones he has when he’s down there. Any triangle offense enthusiast will be more than glad to tell you that assists rarely come from the low-post; much more often, what comes out of the low post is “the pass that leads to the pass” or a “hockey assist.” LeBron’s much more comfortable trying to make the home run play on his own than he is giving his team a slight advantage and hoping they work it out. Given the relative dearth of offensive talent LeBron’s always had around him, this strategy is somewhat understandable.

Motivation
LeBron is so capable from the perimeter, he often doesn't bother to explore opportunities that might exist closer to the rack:

One of the most frustrating things about LeBron’s post game, or lack thereof, is that he allows himself to get pushed off of deep post position way too easily. Either LeBron has some sort of weakness in a muscle group we don’t know about, or he’s so comfortable catching the ball in the 18-20 foot range and driving from there that he isn’t particularly interested in working hard to keep low-post position and risk the pass not getting to him. Again, there is an explanation for this behavior. There’s a reason post play has been dying off since the hand-check rules were passed: it’s a lot easier to go around defenders than it is to shoot over them nowadays. And LeBron is one of the best ever at going around guys. Even still, if LeBron wants to make his post game into a weapon, and he should, he needs to start by showing a desire to actually get the ball in the low post.

Power
(Or, "Keep it simple, stupid.") Part of James' problem might be that he visualizes his post game as something that needs to be choreographed, when a simple display of brute force might do the trick. Krolik uses the metaphor of a pitcher (baseball, not kitchenware):

LeBron should not be a starting pitcher in the post. LeBron should be a dominant closer. Heat, hellacious breaking ball, change-up to keep the hitter honest. Look at Pau Gasol, the best post-up big man in the NBA today. He doesn’t have a huge bag of tricks, but he’s got enough moves to keep the defense from sitting on one, and each move is deadly. Hook with either hand, evil spin to the basket when the defender tries to take away his hook, counter-pivot move around the basket when his man beats him to the spot, turnaround to keep his man honest. That’s pretty much it. And it works. Very well...

... he’s trying way too hard to be pretty. He’s trying all these tricky fadeaways and modified hooks from the mid-post, when he should be taking one or two extra power dribbles, getting to where he can go over either shoulder, and draining easy bunnies all day long. He’s falling into the Fetish of Skill and trying to impress with the most intricate post moves he can pull off instead of going back to the basics, focusing on his footwork, and creating easy shots. One of my chief arguments for LeBron as basketball’s best player over the years is that the most valuable skill in basketball is not the ability to convert difficult shots, but create easy ones. LeBron needs to remember that when he posts up, and use his athleticism and size with some footwork to get layups in the paint instead of trying to use his skill to drain tough shots from 8-14 feet.



In many respects, James' reluctance to be a force on the block stems from his embarrassment of riches. He has an amazing ability to find teammates, so why cut off many of those passing angles by moving low? He can do so much from 19 feet off the dribble to find open areas on the court, so why confine himself to a smaller space down in the block? His athleticism is unparalleled, so why reduce his game to nothing more than a exhibition of power?

The answer, of course, is the same reason why post players need proficient outside shots:

The best way to leverage your most impressive skills is by making your opponents honor your lesser ones.

"If I wanted to, I could quit basketball and play in the NFL."

October, 7, 2009
Oct 7
1:49
PM ET
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LeBron James, messing around as a wide receiver, assures the cameras he won't really do that.

I'm no football expert, but does anybody think he's wrong?

UPDATE: A load of professional football people have addressed this. There seems to be some questions about the speed necessary to be an NFL wide receiver, but in general everyone sounds sure that he could help a football team one way or another.

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