TrueHoop: Tyson Chandler

Pacers' starting five is punishing the Heat

May, 18, 2012
May 18
1:32
PM ET
By Ryan Feldman
ESPN.com
Archive

Michael Hickey/US PresswireThe Pacers starting five has given LeBron James and the Heat fits in the first three games.
The longer the Indiana Pacers can keep their starting five on the court, the better chance they have to eliminate the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Indiana’s starting five of Paul George, Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, George Hill and David West has been the most successful five-man lineup in this year’s postseason. It has a better plus-minus, has scored more points and has a better rebounding margin than any other five-man lineup in the playoffs.

In eight postseason games, Indiana's starting five has outscored its opponents by 79 points and outrebounded them by 68.

During the regular season, George, Granger, Hibbert, Hill and West started just eight games together, and the Pacers were 7-1 in those games. They played just 229 minutes together and outscored their opponents by 72 points.

In the playoffs, they’ve already played together for 176 minutes, and the formula continues to be successful.

This postseason, Indiana’s starting five:

• Has more than double the second-chance points (70) of any other five-man lineup. (Second are the Lakers and Magic with 30.)

• Leads all lineups in points in the paint (152) and points off turnovers (58).

• Has outscored its opponents by 56 points in the paint (152-96), has 30 more second-chance points (74-44) and 18 more fast-break points (42-24).

When George, Granger, Hibbert, Hill and West were on the court in Game 3, they outscored the Heat 68-40.

The starting five shot 52 percent from the field (including 6-of-10 on 3-pointers) and outrebounded the Heat 32-15. That lineup held the Heat to 33 percent shooting from the field and 1-of-10 on 3-point attempts. They also outscored the Heat 13-0 on second-chance points.

Every other Pacers lineup was outscored by nine.

Since the 2008 playoffs, only four lineups have finished with a plus-minus that’s been as good as Indiana’s +79. Three of those teams reached the NBA Finals and two won the NBA championship, including the Mavericks’ lineup last year of Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry.

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.

Derrick Favors, playing big

May, 8, 2012
May 8
4:32
PM ET
Mason By Beckley Mason
ESPN.com
Archive
Derrick Favors
Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE/Getty Images
Derrick Favors is a big part of the Utah Jazz's a high flying future.

Tiago Splitter is rolling to the right side of the rim, wide open -- but only for a moment -- because here comes Jazz big man Derrick Favors flying across the court.

The ball moves, but so does Favors. In an instant later, he is all the way on the left side of the key, where Gary Neal starts to turn the corner off a pick-and-roll. Favors glides into position, his quick feet wide and balanced, his long arms waving to obscure Neal's vision and deter any thought of driving.

There's a reason the Spurs finished the season with the best offense in the NBA, though. They find good shots. With Favors on the left, the ball goes back to Splitter on the right. Somehow, Favors recovers once more, this time meeting the Brazilian at the summit of his rim attack for a clean block.

It was only one play in a first-round series that deserves to be remembered only for its lopsidedness. The Spurs are, by far, the better team. But Jazz fans have plenty to like, and through the four straight losses, Favors still managed to show eye-popping potential.

In fact, on court/off court ratings from NBA.com suggest the Jazz rarely had success scoring or defending against the Spurs when Favors wasn’t on the court, because even mighty San Antonio has little in the way of answers for Favors' rare combination of size and athleticism.

The ability to make the play described above is unique amongst Jazz big men and exceedingly rare in the NBA. It’s the very kind of recognition, effort and athleticism that made Tyson Chandler, who combines stalwart rim-protection with astute pick-and-roll defense, this year’s Defensive Player of the Year.

And even though Favors defines “raw” on offense, his potential remains high. He has the ability to reliably catch the ball 15 feet from the hoop, and use one power dribble to finish with power. Most players never become the next Amare Stoudemire, obviously, but Favors is on the short list with the tools to even try.

Even though fellow Jazz forwards Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson are dynamite inside players, neither can reach the (literal) heights that Favors does as the dive-man in a pick-and-roll. It may seem basic, but precious few big men in the NBA can catch and finish anything on dives to the rim -- the list includes Josh Smith, Blake Griffin, Kenneth Faried and very few others.

Already, Favors distorts defenses. When he moves through the lane, teams go to great lengths to keep him from catching the ball, knowing that when he gets it, his dominance of the airspace will come to bear. This draws defenders his way, creating opportunities for teammates. A Tyson Chandler lob or cut presented a similar threat and was a big part of the Mavericks offense last season, though even Chandler doesn't have Favors' quick first step.

Meanwhile the Nets, the team that drafted Favors third overall then traded him before the end of his rookie season, are desperately hoping to get a top pick again this season. If they do, they will likely draft someone like Anthony Davis or Thomas Robinson -- a player who will rebound, finish above the rim and offer much needed resistance against drives into their paint.

A player like that can anchor a franchise.

A player like the one Derrick Favors is becoming in Utah.

Friday Bullets

April, 13, 2012
Apr 13
4:37
PM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive

Tuesday Bullets

March, 6, 2012
Mar 6
4:10
PM ET
Mason By Beckley Mason
ESPN.com
Archive
  • It's near impossible to stop Chris Paul, but the trend around the league is to use a long, athletic swingman to smother the 6-foot point guard. That tactic has been effective for Golden State and Dallas, which used Dominic McGuire and Shawn Marion, respectively, to slow down Paul and the Clippers. But after reading this excellent post (with a great video of Paul discussing how he attacks taller players), I'm thinking that it takes more than one tall guy with quick feet to shut down CP3.
  • Something new on Jeremy Lin: a stereotype scholar explains how racial stereotypes worked both for and against the Knicks point guard.
  • Unexpected: John Hollinger says the Knicks are playing better defense when DPOY candidate Tyson Chandler sits. Expected: This has a lot to do with Chandler sharing the court with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. (Insider)
  • Brandon Jennings has the foot speed to be a disruptive defender, but coach Scott Skiles would like to see him be a bit more conservative: “The thing that Brandon always has to battle is going for a steal, 'cause he can steal the ball. He had [Lou Williams] all bottled up, six, five left on the shot clock and he went for a steal, Lou went to his right hand and shot a dotted line jump shot. He’s still working on it, he’s just got to battle the urge to gamble when it’s just keep my man in front of me.”
  • Is Chris Bosh better than LeBron James or Dwyane Wade? No. But he may be less dispensable to the Heat's offense. Brian Windhorst reports that Chris Bosh will return to the Heat lineup tonight after missing three games (two of them losses) following the death of his grandmother.
  • The Raptors are fighting hard for new coach Dwane Casey, but it's still important that they lose their fair share of games in order to nab a high lottery pick. So, according to Prospect of Raptors Republic, last night was a perfect game: "The Raptors were outmatched, undermanned, but still somehow managed to put in a scrappy effort and almost won the game, pleasing tank nation while still giving the home fans a reason to show up."
  • D.J. Foster on why the Clippers should be nervous about the postseason:"The best teams in the league force you to pick your poison, but the Clippers don’t really do that — Paul just administers the poison on his own and kills you himself. Eventually though, teams will start doubling Paul as soon as he crosses half court. We’ve seen it before in New Orleans — it’s not that crazy of a thought. They’ll get the ball out of his hands, and if they fail at that, they’ll collapse on him as soon as he moves towards the rim. Defenses will make anyone other than Paul beat them. A good portion of the time Paul will still beat them, but at times it will come down to things like this: Can Blake Griffin hit a mid-range jumper? Can Caron Butler hit the open 3 from the corner? Can Randy Foye make the right decision?
  • Jan Vesely wants in the dunk contest. Anyone whose nickname is "Air Wolf" gets my blessing.
  • Evan Turner's first start of the season didn't go so well. Should he be starting at all?
  • For GQ, Bethlehem Shoals writes that fans give Lamar Odom the benefit of the doubt because he's never been shy about showing an emotional vulnerability that is unusual for professional athletes, but pretty common in most humans.
  • The Charlotte Bobcats are making a legitimate run at being the worst team of all time. Related: Boris Diaw remains hopelessly out of shape, which may mean he's consuming calories equivalent to 200 White Castle burgers a week.
  • Zach Lowe takes on the impossible task of quantifying Rajon Rondo's trade value.
  • Plenty of people want to see Steve Nash get traded to a contender. But moving Robin Lopez might be more beneficial to the Suns.
  • Despite missing Zach Randolph all season, the Grizzlies lurk as a sleeper to once again make a run in the Western Conference playoffs. But to do so, should they make a trade before the deadline?
  • A lot has already happened since the All-Star break. Here's a funny video recap of it all (and some made up stuff, too).

Rubio contains Lin in pick-and-roll offense

February, 12, 2012
Feb 12
6:24
AM ET
By Ryan Feldman, ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com
Jeremy Lin
Lin
Jeremy Lin had been one of the best pick-and-roll ball-handlers in the NBA. But against Ricky Rubio, he was one of the worst.

In the Knicks' 100-98 win over the Timberwolves on Saturday, Lin shot just 3-of-14 and scored eight points when defended by Rubio. In the second half, Lin was 0-for-7 and scored just one point against Rubio.

Against all other defenders, Lin shot 5-of-10 and scored 12 of his 20 points.

Unfortunately for Rubio and the Timberwolves, that one point was the game-winning free throw for Lin in the final seconds. It came after Lin couldn't get through Tyson Chandler's screen, and Lin turned the corner and got fouled by Luke Ridnour driving to the basket.

But that final play wasn't reminiscent of the defensive effort Rubio displayed against Lin all night long.

Among players with a minimum of 50 plays, Lin came into the game ranked third in the NBA in points per play on pick-and-roll ball-handler situations and first on pick-and-roll single-defender situations (plays without hedges). Lin was shooting 61 percent on pick-and-roll plays, which ranked first in the NBA.

Rubio came into the game as one of the poorer pick-and-roll defenders in the NBA. He was ranked among the bottom 20 percent of the NBA in points per play on pick-and-roll ball-handler situations and pick-and-roll single-defender situations, among players with a minimum of 50 plays.

But this game was different. The defensive end of the court is where Rubio made his mark against the Knicks.

Despite Rubio's struggles defending the pick-and-roll this season, the Timberwolves didn't hedge a single time on the 14 pick-and-roll plays in which Rubio defended Lin.

With Rubio serving as Lin's primary defender, the Knicks point guard had his worst shooting performance as a Knick (8-of-24) and turned the ball over six times.

Rubio defended Lin on 14 of his 16 pick-and-roll plays. On those 14 pick-and-roll plays, Lin scored five points (2-of-8 shooting) and had four turnovers. That equates to 0.36 points per play -- among players with a minimum of 50 plays, that would rank worst in the NBA if it were Lin's season average.

Lin's numbers on pick-and-roll plays against Rubio don't even compare to his 1.07 points per play and 61.8 percent shooting in his previous four games.

Rubio has been known as one of the best passing point guards in the NBA. His offensive game is what has gotten him so much notoriety. But against Lin, one of the most efficient pick-and-roll players in the league, Rubio took on the challenge and proved his worth on the defensive end.

Bulls, 76ers defend homecourt well

January, 10, 2012
Jan 10
3:04
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Info
ESPN.com
Archive
One of the most notable storylines in the early part of this NBA season is that offenses have not been in sync.

As a result, several teams have gotten out to great starts defensively. Two of them were on display Monday Night.

The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers set a new standard for defending their homecourt with their victories over the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers.

It’s a bit of an obscure record, but a notable mark nonetheless, one provided by the Elias Sports Bureau. In the NBA’s shot clock era (since 1954), this year’s Bulls (206) and 76ers (221) have allowed the fewest points in their first three home games.

The previous mark was set by the 2003-04 Spurs, who allowed 229 points in their first three home games.

After beating the Pistons 92-68, the Bulls have now held two of their three opponents at home to below 70 points. They held the Grizzlies to 64 points on New Year’s Day.

Also via Elias, the Bulls are now 13-0 against the Pistons over the last four calendar years, the best record for any NBA team against a particular opponent over that span.

The 76ers continue along in surprising fashion. Through eight games, they are holding opponents to just under 90 points per 100 possessions, which represents an early dramatic improvement from last season, in which they allowed 102.5 points per 100. Philadelphia’s +14.7 point differential is the best in the NBA.

Chandler getting into flow for Knicks
Tyson Chandler
Chandler
Tyson Chandler had his best game since joining the New York Knicks, going 7-for-8 from the field and scoring 20 points in a win over the Charlotte Bobcats.

Chandler had a pair of alley-oops among his seven baskets. He’s had four alley-oops in his last two games after netting five in his first seven games.

Plus-Minus Note of the Night
The Minnesota Timberwolves got far better production from their bench than their starters. All five Timberwolves reserves finished with a positive plus-minus, but each of their starters had a -11 plus-minus or worse in a 97-87 loss to the Toronto Raptors.

Most impressive was J.J. Barea. The Timberwolves outscored the Raptors by 21 points when Barea played and they were outscored by 31 when he was off the floor.

Rookie Ricky Rubio finished a +1 in 30 minutes. He is now a +49 through the Timberwolves first nine games.

What's wrong with the Knicks?

January, 6, 2012
Jan 6
4:51
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Info
ESPN.com
Archive
On Wednesday, the New York Knicks dropped a game to the Charlotte Bobcats, 118-110, to drop to 2-4 on the season and now sit four games back of the Miami Heat atop the Eastern Conference.

Three areas stand out for reasons for the Knicks’ early-season struggles.

Tyson Chandler: Not Helping?
The Knicks acquired Tyson Chandler to help their defense. Unfortunately, not only has the team performed better on defense when Chandler is not on the floor, he’s also had a depressing performance on the team’s offense. The Knicks put up a better points per 100 possessions, both offensively and defensively, when Chandler is not in the game.

If we look at it from a broader perspective, the Knicks’ overall numbers have not improved, either.

Two areas in which one would expect Chandler to have a significant impact would include, naturally, points allowed as well as rebound rate. The Knicks have not improved relative to the league in either of those categories. They've dropped from 21st to 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency, and have remained 28th in rebound rate.

Carmelo Anthony: Not a Savior?
Presumably, one of the reasons the Knicks went out and acquired Carmelo Anthony was because they viewed him as a franchise cornerstone, difference-maker type player. While no one doubts his scoring prowess, it’s fair to question whether he has a tangible impact on a team’s ability to win games.

Over the last two seasons, the Knicks are two games over .500 before acquiring Anthony, and two games under after Anthony became a Knick. Their points scored, allowed and field goal percentage are virtually the same before and after Anthony.

The Denver Nuggets, on the other hand, are 23-9 since trading Carmelo Anthony, after sitting at 32-25 last season before trading their superstar. Only the Bulls have a better record since Feb. 22, 2011, the date of the trade.

Amar'e Stoudemire: Hurt by Point Guards?
Amare Stoudemire
Stoudemire
Amar’e Stoudemire predates both Chandler and Anthony in New York, but it appears he’s being hurt by point guard play that has dropped off since last season.

With Toney Douglas this season, Stoudemire is averaging 5.3 shots in the restricted zone per 36 minutes. Last season, with Raymond Felton on the floor, Stoudemire was averaging 7.2 of those shots per 36 minutes.

His scoring, field goal percentage and free throw attempts per game have also dropped off this season with Douglas on the floor compared to his numbers last season with Felton.

This has matched scouting reports, that Douglas is more of a scoring point guard who may have trouble setting up teammates.

Doubting Dallas

December, 29, 2011
12/29/11
4:57
PM ET
Mason By Beckley Mason
ESPN.com
Archive
Last year Jason Terry had the audacity to get the Larry O’Brien Trophy etched into bicep.

Last year Tyson Chandler and assistant coach Dwane Casey elevated the Dallas defense to elite levels.

Last year Dallas raced to a blistering 24-5 record before stumbling over Dirk Nowtizki’s twisted knee and limping into the playoffs with a three seed.

Last year the Dallas Mavericks made fools of those who scoffed at the notion of the Mavericks escaping a first round matchup with the feisty and physical Portland Trailblazers.

This year Jason Terry can touch the real life Larry whenever he chooses.

This year Tyson Chandler and Dwane Casey are gone--Chandler for a fat check in the big city and Casey for a long overdue chance to coach his own team.

This year Dallas is 0-2, spanked twice by playoff teams, and faces another hungry foe in the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

This year Dallas might not make the playoffs.

---------

NBA Champions often return from the offseason without the sense of urgency and all-consuming drive that took them to the top. Pat Riley called it “the disease of more.” His theory was that after winning a ring, the ultimate team accomplishment, players tend to look inward to their own goals of more playing time, more shots and more money.

It’s always tricky to speculate on the psyche of players thousands of miles away, but even from farflung couches one can see that this Mavericks squad has a severe and perhaps untreatable case of the disease of less--less talent and less belief. With little practice time and a bunch of new players, the Mavericks also have less time to right the ship.

Despite how devotedly Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd bail out the the boat, water will continue to flood the hull.

Riley’s theory is conveniently player-focused. It wasn’t his fault that the players he coached or signed couldn’t muster the requisite competitive zeal. But what is happening in Dallas is a direct result of front office personnel decisions that have almost nothing to do with this season or even last season.

For example Tyson Chandler had the best offensive rating in the NBA during last season’s regular season and playoffs. Simply put: when Chandler was on the court, the Mavericks scored more points per possession than did any other line up on any other team. As you might expect, Dallas’s most consistent defensive lineups also included Chandler.

Was $14.5 million per year over four years too high a price to keep a 29 year old center with 10 years on his injury prone legs? Maybe not, if the goal is to make a great run at winning again this year.

What about José Juan Barea, DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler--three overpriced (well, not Stevenson) but useful wing players Dallas let walk for nothing. On-court chemistry was an important part of what made Dallas special last year, but keep in mind that the graves of former champions are dug with imprudent signings of replacement value players.

These moves make perfect sense if the off-season goal isn’t to reload for a repeat run at a ring but to scrub your cap sheet in hopes of landing Dwight Howard or Deron Williams in 2012.

That’s probably a wise decision. Williams grew up in Dallas and Howard scribbled the Mavs on his shortlist of places he’d like to play. Nowitzki needs a stud to play with in the twilight of his career, and both would be a fantastic compliment to the sweet-shooting big man. Even if neither ever wear a Maverick uniform, Dallas will still have about $25 mil to bring in better talent next year.

But think about how these decisions must appear to players like Jason Kidd and Lamar Odom.

Kidd is still capable but has spent more time playing against some of the other coaches in the league than he has against the likes of Derrick Rose. He’s old and he’s aware that he doesn’t have many more seasons left. Now he’s toiling in what is in effect a stop-gap season.

Odom went from a perennial contender that always made the big move to put itself in finals contention to a team that is obviously renting him for one season to free up cap space. He’s gone from 6th Man of the Year and rotation player for the league’s best franchise to a player whose primary value is that you don’t have to pay him for more than one year.

Even Nowitzki, he of tireless work ethic, mentioned that his motivation was down following the euphoria of his brilliant playoff run and subsequent slog at the Euros.

In their first two games of the season, the Mavericks’ characteristically sharp passing and incisive offense haven’t just been rusty, but dull.

It’s not possible to quantify spirit, but the their struggles so far are nothing so esoteric as “wanting it.” They just don’t have as many good players and this happened on purpose.

The message that Mark Cuban has been trying to spin is that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was the impetus for him gutting Mavericks roster. He told Dallas radio that “this is 100 percent about the CBA and understanding the impact it will have on the market."

That may be true, and it may very well be the smart play. But the the message to the entire team and coaching staff was “do your best this year, but your immediate success isn’t really our main concern.”

When, rightly or wrongly, the management views the current season as an afterthought, it must be difficult to muster the focus and passion that make last year’s Mavericks so special.

Beckley Mason is the founder of HoopSpeak. You can follow him on Twitter at @BeckleyMason.

What 2 Watch 4: NBA Season Preview

December, 24, 2011
12/24/11
12:00
PM ET
By Micah Adams and Jason Starrett, ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com
With the season set to tip-off on Christmas Day, here are four major statistical storylines to keep a close eye on:

Can the Mavericks repeat?
With the departure of Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson, the Dallas Mavericks will be the first defending champion since the 1998-99 Bulls to lose three of its top seven in minutes played from the previous season’s NBA Finals.

Added to the mix are Lamar Odom and Vince Carter. In Odom, the Mavericks added an incredibly efficient half-court scorer according to our video-tracking friends at Synergy Sports. Among all qualified forwards, he ranked third in the NBA in points per play in the half court, trailing only Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki.

Carter is also a good fit. Last season, only five teams scored more points on spot-up shots. In 2010-11 Carter ranked in the Top 25 in the NBA in field goal attempts per game, field goal percentage and points per game on spot-up shots.


How does Chris Paul improve the Clippers?
As a pick-and-roll ball handler last season, Chris Paul ranked sixth in the NBA in points per play among the 103 players with at least 100 pick-and-roll plays. As a team the Los Angeles Clippers ranked 17th in pick-and-roll efficiency while Paul’s old team in New Orleans ranked seventh.
Chris Paul
Paul
Look for Paul to help improve the Clippers jump-shooting woes as well. Last season the Clippers shot just 35.1 pct on jump shots which ranked dead last in the NBA. Paul ranked 20th in jump shot FG attempts, but did so with great efficiency, connecting on 44 percent. Of the 19 players which took more jumpers, only Dirk Nowitzki, Stephen Curry and Ray Allen shot a better percentage.

While the loss of Eric Gordon hurts, consider this: accounting for three-pointers, Gordon had a 48.5 adjusted FG pct on jump shots... worse than both Paul (49.8) and Chauncey Billups (52.7).


Will youth be served in Oklahoma City?
While James Harden and Serge Ibaka continue to improve, the main focus is on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Durant is looking to become the first player since Michael Jordan in 1997-98 to lead the league in scoring three straight seasons. Westbrook meanwhile is coming off a 2010-11 season in which he emerged as one of the league’s best finishers at the rim, ranking sixth in points scored within three feet.

Perhaps the biggest concern with the Thunder is the potential for an alpha-dog dispute. Durant was the unquestioned go-to guy down the stretch during the regular season, an assumption which was then challenged by Westbrook during the postseason (see chart).

Regardless of who takes the big shots, an improvement on their combined 3-26 effort would surely bring OKC closer to a title.

Bigger impact on the East: Richard Hamilton or Tyson Chandler?
While many presume we won’t know anything new about the Miami Heat until the playoffs, the same can’t be said for the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks who added major pieces in Richard Hamilton and Tyson Chandler.

The Bulls brought in Hamilton to take the place of Keith Bogans, who despite starting all 82 games, averaged just 4.4 PPG which was the fewest among all players with at least 50 starts. With Derrick Rose having the second-highest usage rate in the NBA last season, scoring without the ball is an essential skill for all other Bulls players. Among guards, Hamilton has the fifth-most assisted FG on shots beyond 15 feet over the last three seasons.

Chandler’s most significant responsibility will be to improve a Knicks interior defense which allowed opponents to shoot 45.3 percent on post ups last season (21st in the NBA). On post up plays in which he played single coverage, Chandler held opponents to 41.4 pct shooting. That is at least 5 points better than any of the players who saw minutes at center for the Knicks last season.

Tale of the tape: Chandler's value

December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
10:00
AM ET
By Mark Simon, ESPN Stats & Information
ESPN.com

Nathaniel Butler/Getty ImagesTyson Chandler is in his comfort zone when he's able to elevate for shots around the basket.

The Knicks enter the season with great expectations, in no small part because of the addition of big man Tyson Chandler.

Exactly how will he make a difference? We take a closer look at the key skills Chandler brings with the help of our Synergy video evaluation tool.

Contesting the Long Range Shot
The Mavericks lead the Washington Wizards by three points in the third quarter in a late-January game last season, but the Wizards are about to get a couple of shots to tie.

The ball swings to Nick Young in the corner opposite where it was just moments before.

Chandler is able to shift focus from one end to the other. He comes racing at Young, forcing an ugly miss.

After a second miss, Trevor Booker, grabs the rebound and throws it back to Rashard Lewis at the wing.

It's an open 3-pointer, but Lewis hesitates.


That allows Chandler to leap out again, raise his arms and contest Lewis' shot. Lewis ended up overshooting. The ball hit the back rim, no good.

The Knicks got crushed last season by long shots last season. They ranked 30th in the NBA in points allowed per shot on shots from 17 feet to the 3-point line and 28th in the league against 3-pointers.

Chandler will provide an improvement, ranking just above average at defending the mid-range jumper, and in the top one-quarter of the league when trying to deny a 3-pointer.

Defending the Pick-and-Roll
The score is tied with five minutes left in the fourth quarter of a late-January game with the Phoenix Suns. Steve Nash has the ball in his hands with eight seconds on the shot clock.

Nash moves left, setting up for a pick-and-roll. Chandler switches, moves off his man, and forces Nash outside.

Nash drives and curls around Chandler, but Chandler stays with him and raises his right arm as Nash prepares to shoot.

Nash twists and flips up an awkward shot. No good.


This is often what it’s like to go up against Chandler if you’re a point guard who likes to run the pick-and-roll.

Chandler ranks above average when guarding the ballhandler on pick-and-roll plays. But what’s key is that he outranked the Knicks big men by a considerable margin (see chart on right).

More than capable offensively
There are two-and-a-half minutes left in the fourth quarter, with the Mavericks down a point to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Kidd sets up Jason Terry for a 3-pointer from the left side that misses.


Chandler skies over a Timberwolves defender for the rebound and goes right back up, while getting hacked.

The ball drops through the hoop, and Chandler converts a subsequent free throw. Dallas goes on to win by eight.


Let’s look at that play from four perspectives:

The rebound: Chandler rated sixth in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage, an estimate of how frequently he was able to rebound a missed shot from his teammates.

The re-elevation: Chandler held on to the ball. He averaged only 1.5 turnovers per 36 minutes last season, a career-best.

The finish: Chandler shot 64 percent on his putback attempts. He got fouled enough to score at least one point on nearly two-thirds of his putbacks, the sixth-best rate in the NBA.

The free throw: Chandler improved significantly on his free throw shooting the last two seasons, shooting them at 72 percent.

In conclusion
“If you talk about guys who have had an impact on the team and basically changed the culture, that’s Tyson Chandler. He’s probably done that better than anybody in the league this year.”
-- Mark Cuban prior to last year's All-Star Break


Chandler is not a player who will overwhelm you with his contributions. But at least last season, the sum was greater than its parts.

There's a stat on Basketball-Reference.com that requires multiple pages of explanation -- Win Shares. It's representative of the sum of the parts a player contributes and can be broken down into 48-minute segments. The parts come from making plays like those described above.

Last season only four players had a higher Win Share per 48 rate than Chandler: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Chris Paul.

The Knicks can only hope he’ll be that valuable on both ends of the floor in 2011-12.

Baron Davis' uncertain future in Cleveland

December, 9, 2011
12/09/11
10:11
AM ET
Windhorst By Brian Windhorst
ESPN.com
Archive
With chaos raging around the league and their owner suddenly in the middle of it, the Cavs' front office is dealing with a different hot potato. How it plays out could affect several title contenders.

According to league sources, it has become clear that Baron Davis’ brief stay in Cleveland is likely coming to an end. How it comes to an end, though, is complex and could have an impact on where Davis ultimately lands next. As of Friday morning the Cavs had not decided how they wanted to proceed with Davis. Meanwhile, the point guard was in Cleveland and expected to report to training camp.

For some time Davis has been a candidate to be waived by the Cavs using the amnesty clause, which would remove the two years and $28 million the Cavs owe him from the team’s books and create more than $10 million in salary-cap space. This was not the plan all along. Things changed when the Cavs won the draft lottery and took Kyrie Irving, who is now their franchise player. In addition the team has a solid backup point guard, Ramon Sessions, on the roster.

In recent weeks, sources said, Davis had been counting on becoming a free agent and setting his sights on the Lakers, Knicks and Heat. His agents have been in talks with the Cavs to facilitate the process this week.

However, the Cavs are not sure they want to amnesty Davis. They still believe he has value to the team and think he could potentially become a strong trade asset later this season or next summer. The Cavs, sources said, were also turned off by the thought of Davis being paid by them but ultimately ending up in Miami helping LeBron James compete for a title.

Trying to work through the issues, Davis’ representation has also been involved in buyout talks with the Cavs, sources said. In a buyout, Davis might have to give up some of the money owed to him over the next two years but he would become an outright free agent. In this case, he would not have to pass through the league’s new amnesty waiver system where another team could bid and then acquire his rights.

Davis figures to be significantly in demand, especially in New York where starter Chauncey Billups appears on his way out to facilitate a Tyson Chandler signing. If the Lakers are unable to complete a trade for Chris Paul, they would also likely remain in the race if Davis gets out of Cleveland. The Heat are also in need of a point guard.

If Davis is amnestied another team could block those moves by bidding on Davis. After they finish making their moves, the Knicks, Lakers and Heat aren’t expected to have salary cap space and therefore could not bid on Davis.

Do-It-Yourself: Free-agent bargain shopping

December, 6, 2011
12/06/11
8:44
PM ET
By Will Cohen, ESPN Stats & Info
ESPN.com
The NBA offseason is finishing with a sprint as the schedule is released Tuesday night. Soon teams will be scrambling to fill out rosters with free-agent deals. Before your teams do that, you can go shopping yourself with our interactive graphic below.

Here are some takeaways that we saw:

Tyson Chandler is the prize
Tyson Chandler
Chandler

Believe it or not, Chandler was tied for fifth in the league in Win Shares per 48 minutes with Dwyane Wade. That is a rate stat so it can be a bit misleading but Chandler's 9.4 total Win Shares ranked 23rd in the league, ahead of more notable big men like Kevin Garnett and Amare Stoudemire. Chandler certainly won’t garner that superstar-level money which makes him a bargain for any team.

Chandler produces an elite rebounding rate – his 19.7% of total rebounds grabbed ranked seventh amongst players with at least 50 games played. Throw in the fact that that he shot 65.4 percent from the floor and you have a tremendously productive player at a scarce position.

Josh McRoberts could have a bright future
Remember when McRoberts was the 2005 McDonald’s All-America Player of the Year? He’s finally seems to be living up to some of that potential.

McRoberts quietly put together a very solid 2010-11 season while playing a career high 22 minutes per game and is the youngest unrestricted free agent available on the market at 24 years old. But it's his per-36 numbers that show he can do a little bit of everything: 12 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.3 BPG.

Perhaps the most important stat is that McRoberts dropped his fouls-per-36 from 5.2 in his age 21 and 22 seasons to 3.7 last year. At 0.147 Win Shares per 48, McRoberts is the second most valuable available forward who played at least 20 MPG last year.

Don’t overpay Jamal Crawford
Jamal Crawford
Crawford

Entering this free-agent period, the consensus seems to be that Crawford is the most valuable available guard. Unfortunately the numbers paint a less flattering picture.

Despite seeing 30 minutes per game last year off the bench, Crawford actually produced at a below league average rate. Known for his offense, Crawford’s ORtg of 105 was only 1.5 better than the league average. His DRtg of 111 (meaning he allowed 3.5 points more per 100 possessions than the average defender) couldn't overcome that slightly above-average offense. These numbers added up to a 14.2 PER, the lowest of his career since his age-20 rookie season. He now enters his age 31 season.

In a time when owners want to limit player salaries, the first test will be avoid overpaying for an underperformer such as Crawford.

Most valuable forward … Steve Novak?
Novak led all free-agent forwards last season with .195 Win Shares per 48 minutes. Instant caveat: he did this in only 7.2 minutes per game so there’s an obvious sample-size issue.

But even in that limited time, how did he manage to perform at such a high rate?

The key was his off-the-charts shooting. Novak shot 52 percent from the field last season and a whopping 56 percent from three-point range. He only played in 30 games so it’s not fair to expect that kind of production in the future, but his sharpshooting from outside isn’t an aberration. He’s averaged 42 percent from three-point range for his career. It's not likely that Novak can be more than a role player because he can’t do the dirty work expected of a 6-10 forward, but he can bring valuable efficient outside spot-up shooting with a low price tag.

Thanks to Basketball-Reference.com and Tableau.

Wednesday Bullets

November, 23, 2011
11/23/11
4:23
PM ET
Arnovitz By Kevin Arnovitz
ESPN.com
Archive
  • Whither the franchise tag -- or designated player -- that was one of the major talking points last summer when a discussion of the next collective bargaining agreement was just getting underway? Zach Lowe of Point Forward revisits the idea, and looks at the repercussions of such a rule.

    My general feeling is that, no matter how much you incentivize a player to stay put with his existing team, it's still inordinately difficult to convince a guy to stay in a place he deems undesirable. As Lowe points out, eliminating the sign-and-trade and extend-and-trade will prevent suitors from manipulating the system so that they can offer a defector more money and more years, but it's still hard to imagine a world where Top 20 players stick around for a extra dollars and an extra year. Regarding the latter, locking in an extra season isn't all that compelling to a young superstar. In many cases, he's likely to score a heftier salary in the first year of his next deal (To wit, look at how many superstars are negotiating opt-outs after the third year of lengthier deals). And as Miami's superstars proved last summer, superstars are willing to take less money in a more desirable locale.
  • Given how well Lamar Odom played during his stint with Team USA, Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Times says Odom would be wise to look overseas during the lockout.
  • Charles Barkley takes a victory lap for his clairvoyance (at 1:21:40 mark of interview with ESPN Chicago): "Oh I was the first one. If you go back and look, I remember I was on a TV show last year when the season was going on; they asked me about next year, and I said ‘dude, I don’t think there’s going to be a season at all next year.’ And everybody looked at me like ‘that dude’s crazy.’ What I always knew was the owners were going to get the deal they wanted or they were not going to play."
  • Politicians, restaurant owners and a vodka company's CEO will issue demands to the Knicks that the team has already granted -- full refunds with interest for season ticket holders.
  • Did Tyson Chandler's injury history coupled with his free agent status inform his decision to reportedly turn down an offer from the Zhejiang Guangsha Lions?
  • I was supposed to be at the Wizards-Celtics game in Washington last night. Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus continues his Sim Season series and tells us that I didn't miss anything, apart from a 3-for-14 night from John Wall. Doolittle's simulation doesn't track the keystone cop moments JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche had on defensive rotations along the back line, but the 108-94 final score in Boston's favor suggests they were plentiful.
  • Twenty-eight years ago tonight, the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets 156-116. After the game, Nuggets head coach Doug Moe confessed that, once the rout was on, he told his team to let the Trail Blazers score. Via the Oregonian: "'Our defense was getting so tenacious, I was afraid they (the Blazers) wouldn’t get to 150,' Moe said in laughing off his actions afterward. 'And they (the Portland fans) wanted it bad. I just told the team to back off and let them have it. I said, "Part the seas."'"
  • Luol Deng is loving Arsenal veteran Alex Song.
  • Metta World Peace: Courting danger on the dance floor.
  • Life after the Association for Lamond Murray.
video

Mavericks height neutralizing Lakers

May, 5, 2011
5/05/11
2:01
PM ET
By Dean Oliver & Pete Newmann
ESPN.com
The Los Angeles Lakers length was supposed to be a problem for opponents in the playoffs.

But people forget about the length of the Dallas Mavericks.

The Lakers (Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol) and Mavericks (Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki) were the only teams that regularly started two 7-footers during the regular season.

The Mavericks' size has caused problems for the Lakers, who typically had height advantages at the power forward and center positions of about an inch per player. In the Western Conference semifinals against the Mavericks, however, the Lakers' advantage has been reduced to about two-tenths of an inch. The Lakers played about 40 percent of their regular-season minutes with an overall average height advantage greater than half an inch. Against Dallas in this series, it’s been only 27 percent of the minutes with that advantage.

The Lakers' lineups that have had an average height smaller than the Mavericks have struggled, getting outscored 43-25 in the first two games.

When the Lakers have had a net height advantage of one player, they’re outscoring Dallas, 92-80. If the Lakers have no net height advantage, they’ve getting outscored 109-83. The Lakers cannot stop the Mavericks or score on them with no net height advantage.

• Over the course of the season, the Mavericks were the team with the lowest rate of attacking the paint off the dribble, about 10 fewer times per game than the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder, the leaders in attacking the paint off the dribble during the regular season.

The Mavericks scored 37.1 percent of their points in the paint in the regular season, the lowest percentage in the NBA. In the playoffs, that percentage has decreased to 35.5; however, the Mavericks have been making their perimeter shots in this series which has neutralized one of the Lakers’ advantages – their length and ability to defend in the paint.

With the Lakers spread out and not able to pack in the paint, it’s opened up passing lanes for Dallas. In this series, 14 of the Mavericks’ 17 layups or dunks in their halfcourt offense (82 percent) have been assisted. (The league average during the regular season is about 60 percent.) Also, all 15 of Dallas’ made 3-point shots in the halfcourt have been assisted.
BACK TO TOP