- John Keim, ESPN Washington Redskins reporter
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Here’s their rationale:
“From a fantasy perspective, RG III actually had his share of highlights last season. He had six games of 19 or more points, after eight 19-point games during his breakout rookie season. Still, some of the underlying indicators last year weren't great. He was the NFL's 31st-ranked QB on passes thrown 10 yards downfield, registering only 9.7 yards per vertical pass attempt. It helps that he'll be throwing to DeSean Jackson, who had more vertical yards (905) than Redskins receivers Pierre Garcon and Aldrick Robinson combined (813). Look for Griffin's on-field numbers to catch up with his fantasy numbers, but he's not in the elite tier at this point.”
My take: The struggles in downfield passing wasn’t a surprise and stemmed from a variety of reasons, starting with his own inaccuracy (aided by inconsistent mechanics). The line did not always allow him time to make certain throws; receivers did not always win routes. Add it up, and it led to him being ranked 31st in this area.
But in 2012, Griffin was second overall in this category, trailing only Colin Kaepernick (but when it came to quarterbacks who made at least 100 such passes, Griffin was tops). Griffin completed 74 of 127 passes of this distance with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. One note: His attempts were the 26th most in the league.
However, the overall point is that he was much better in this area as a rookie than he was a year ago. The Redskins did an excellent job of fooling defenses in the back seven, creating more gaps for him to find. Last season teams blitzed him more, with a greater variety, as well. At times his throws were off; other times he did not look comfortable in the pocket. Certain routes were covered better. There was rarely a good rhythm to the passing game, a function of multiple issues. But certainly Griffin’s lack of offseason and, therefore, development did not help.
Really, forget what this means to Griffin from a fantasy perspective, if he improves in this area, it will go a long way toward the offense being dangerous. With the new talent at receiver, and with a full offseason, Griffin can re-establish himself just by being more accurate on these throws.
Robert Griffin III should be a top-10 quarterback this season -- at least according to ESPN.com’s fantasy ratings. The Redskins, of course, hope that’s not just, well, a fantasy.