Commentary

Dueling projections: Pats' roster (v. 3.0)

Mike Reiss and Mike Rodak predict how the Patriots' roster will look come Sept. 12

Updated: August 26, 2011, 1:43 PM ET

By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- When projecting the Patriots' 53-man roster, one of the toughest positions to analyze is receiver.

Chad Ochocinco, Wes Welker and Deion Branch look like locks, and second-year receiver Taylor Price and third-year man Julian Edelman also seem to be safe. If that's the way it unfolds, it puts Brandon Tate, last year's No. 3 receiver and the team's top kickoff returner, closer to the roster bubble.

Given how often the Patriots utilize two tight ends, and with Aaron Hernandez a recever-like talent, it makes one wonder if keeping six pure receivers is a luxury the team can afford.

That was the most challenging area to analyze in the third version of "dueling" roster projections:

Patriots 53-man roster projection (v. 3.0)

Mike Reiss' projection	Mike Rodak's projection
Quarterback (3): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett	Quarterback (3): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett
Analysis: While the Colts signed previously retired veteran Kerry Collins to fill their backup void, the Patriots look well stocked.	Analysis: No change from last week.
Running back (4): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen	Running back (4): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen
Analysis: With each day, it looks more and more likely that Kevin Faulk will land on the reserve/physically unable to perform list. Veteran Sammy Morris, a pro's pro, is the tough cut. He should find work quickly if that happens.	Analysis: With roster spots coming at a premium, Morris is the odd man out. His veteran leadership is valuable though, and the team could bring him back after the start of the regular season.
Wide receiver (7): Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Matthew Slater	Wide receiver (7): Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Matthew Slater
Analysis: This is a high total, and while Tate's impact as a kickoff returner is lessened by the NFL's new rules, the feeling is that it's too early to give up on him even though he appears to be on the roster bubble. A key consideration is that Branch and Welker are in the final year of their contracts. Slater, a Larry Izzo-type performer on special teams, has had a solid camp.	Analysis: No changes from last week. Price hasn't practiced or played since his impressive preseason debut against Jacksonville, but he showed too much potential to be let go.
Tight end (3): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Will Yeatman	Tight end (3): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Will Yeatman
Analysis: Yeatman, a rookie free agent from Maryland, edges out fifth-round draft choice Lee Smith after playing 20 first-half snaps last week against the Buccaneers, with Smith relegated to second-half action. Garrett Mills sticks around on the practice squad.	Analysis: As fifth-round pick Lee Smith slides down the depth chart, Yeatman, an undrafted free agent, sneaks onto the squad. Recent addition Garrett Mills could head to the practice squad.
Offensive tackle (4): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Steve Maneri	Offensive tackle (4): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Steve Maneri
Analysis: The depth here was highlighted by the team releasing Mark LeVoir and then LeVoir landing on the Ravens' starting unit in their third preseason game.	Analysis: Mark LeVoir is cut by the team last week, leaving the last spot to Maneri, a second-year developmental player.
Guard/center (5): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Ryan Wendell, Rich Ohrnberger	Guard/center (5): Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, Rich Ohrnberger
Analysis:It seems likely that fifth-round draft choice Marcus Cannon will open the year on the reserve/non-football injury list. Thomas Austin, a practice squad player from 2010, put his best foot forward but is part of a numbers crunch.	Analysis: Ohrnberger gets added as Wendell's health remains a question mark, not having practiced since July 31.
Defensive end (5): Jermaine Cunningham, Eric Moore, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, Mark Anderson	Defensive end (4): Jermaine Cunningham, Eric Moore, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter
Analysis: Carter and Anderson look like the top pass-rushers. Cunningham and Moore fit as outside linebackers if the Patriots want to play a 3-4 alignment, which adds to their value.	Analysis: No changes from last week. With some strong preseason performances, Mark Anderson is one of the toughest cuts to make. His role is duplicated by players such as Carter and would not be enough to justify a spot on the 53-man roster.
Defensive tackle (5): Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth, Gerard Warren, Myron Pryor, Kyle Love	Defensive tackle (6): Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth, Mike Wright, Gerard Warren, Kyle Love, Myron Pryor
Analysis:One change from last week has Warren, the 11-year veteran, making the roster. He has looked impressive. Warren takes the spot of Mike Wright, last year's leading sacker (5.5), who has missed the past three weeks with an undisclosed injury.	Analysis:No changes from last week.
Linebacker (5): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Dane Fletcher, Rob Ninkovich	Linebacker (6): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Rob Ninkovich, Dane Fletcher, Tracy White
Analysis: Spikes has missed the past few weeks with an undisclosed injury, and Fletcher injured his right thumb last week in Tampa. If both aren't ready for the season opener, the Patriots will have to consider keeping others like Tracy White, Niko Koutouvides and Ricky Brown and would likely trim at receiver.	Analysis:No changes from last week. The health situations of Spikes and Fletcher will be monitored, but neither appears to be long-term injuries that would affect the makeup of the roster.
Cornerback (5): Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Darius Butler	Cornerback (4): Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington
Analysis: Depth at cornerback is valuable, so while there was a temptation to keep just four, that was deemed too thin. Butler, the 2009 second-round pick, has rebounded after a tough opening in camp.	Analysis: No changes from last week. Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite continue to battle to stay with the team, but as long as Dowling returns to full health by the start of the regular season, both players could be on the outside of the bubble.
Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, James Sanders, Sergio Brown	Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, James Sanders, Sergio Brown
Analysis: Meriweather's status bears monitoring, as the coaching staff is clearly attempting to light a fire under him. He could generate some trade interest, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots pull the trigger on something like that.	Analysis: Lockett suffers a season-ending groin injury, while Brown is rotated in with the first-team defense. New acquisition James Ihedigbo will likely have to shine on special teams to make it.
Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Matt Katula	Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Matt Katula
Analysis: Gostkowski is on schedule in his recovery from a torn right quad from 2010, which negates the need for a kickoff specialist, even though Chris Koepplin has done a nice job in that role.	Analysis: No changes from last week.

Mike Reiss

Patriots reporter, ESPNBoston.com

Covered Patriots since 1997
Blogging on Pats since 2004
Joined ESPNBoston.com in 2009

Dueling projections: Pats' roster (v. 3.0)

Mike Reiss and Mike Rodak predict how the Patriots' roster will look come Sept. 12

Patriots 53-man roster projection (v. 3.0)

Mike Reiss

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