Commentary

Pats 53-man roster projection (v. 1.1)

A three-headed prognostication of how the team will look come season opener

Updated: July 25, 2012, 5:28 PM ET

By Mike Reiss, Mike Rodak and Field Yates | ESPNBoston.com

Rank the Patriots on the bubble

SportsNation Which players on the Patriots' roster bubble have the best chance of making the 53-man roster? Rank 'em

Part of the Patriots' offseason strategy was to build better depth on the roster, and the goal seems to have been accomplished. The club looks to have a stronger "middle class" than it did last year.

This thought was reinforced when our team put together its first 53-man roster projection of the year (three versions), and there are some tough cuts.

Training camp could be the most competitive in Bill Belichick's 13 years as head coach, which is the way Belichick likes it. As always, an injury can alter the picture quickly, and a player's projected performance might unexpectedly head in a different direction. Those potential changes will be monitored in ensuing 53-man roster projections.

PATRIOTS 53-MAN ROSTER PROJECTION (V. 1.1)

Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett	Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett	Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett
Analysis: After drafting Mallett in the third round last year, Bill Belichick talked about how it's risky to have just two quarterbacks on the roster.	Analysis: Could the Patriots surprise and only keep two quarterbacks? That would require a trade, which would seem unlikely but is still possible.	Analysis: The only debate here is which young QB will earn the top backup job.
RUNNING BACKS
Reiss' projection (4)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (4)
Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen Danny Woodhead Brandon Bolden	Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen Danny Woodhead	Shane Vereen Stevan Ridley Danny Woodhead Brandon Bolden
Analysis: Had Joseph Addai making the roster before Wednesday's surprise announcement that he'd been cut. Enter Bolden.	Analysis: The Patriots need another player here, preferably a veteran. Is it possible they carry only three running backs? Yes, but still need competition in preseason.	Analysis: Bolden slides ahead of veteran Addai and emerges as the Patriots' top undrafted free agent.
FULLBACKS
Reiss' projection (0)	Rodak's projection (1)	Yates' projection (2)
	Spencer Larsen	Spencer Larsen Tony Fiammetta
Analysis: Belichick made the point that fullbacks Larsen, Fiammetta and Eric Kettani would be competing against tight ends, linebackers and possibly running backs for a roster spot (factoring in special teams). Those positions get the edge here.	Analysis: Most likely room for one player here. Larsen could be a key special-teams player.	Analysis: The Patriots may not use many two-back sets this season, but don't discount these players' special-teams value.
TIGHT ENDS
Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Visanthe Shiancoe	Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Daniel Fells	Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Daniel Fells
Analysis: The signing of Shiancoe opens up the possibility that the Patriots could keep Fells on the physically unable to perform list into the season as Belichick builds more depth.	Analysis: Fells' injury situation could bear watching, but the Patriots likely desire a third tight end after depth was thinned last season, and he fits the bill.	Analysis: The Patriots got even richer at an already-strong tight end position by adding the athletic Fells.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Reiss' projection (6)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (6)
Wes Welker Brandon Lloyd Jabar Gaffney Deion Branch Julian Edelman Matthew Slater	Brandon Lloyd Wes Welker Jabar Gaffney Julian Edelman Matthew Slater	Brandon Lloyd Wes Welker Jabar Gaffney Matthew Slater Julian Edelman Deion Branch
Analysis: Rookie Jeremy Ebert starts on the physically unable to perform list, and Donte' Stallworth is edged out by Branch. Slater is here for special-teams contributions, not as a pass-catcher.	Analysis: With three receivers ahead of him and two top-shelf tight ends, there just isn't enough passes to make Branch valuable enough on the roster, without special-teams contributions.	Analysis: Perhaps the most compelling positional battle, Branch clings to the last receiver spot over Stallworth.
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
Reiss' projection (4)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
Nate Solder Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon Matt Kopa	Nate Solder Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon	Nate Solder Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon
Analysis: Concern over Vollmer's health leads the team to add an extra layer of depth, and Matt Kopa (Stanford) has shown some promise behind the scenes.	Analysis: One position on the roster in which the Patriots could look to add another player. Vollmer's health will be something to watch as camp unfolds.	Analysis: The Patriots go thin at tackles with no true backup option behind Solder.
CENTERS/GUARDS
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (6)	Yates' projection (5)
Dan Connolly Logan Mankins Brian Waters Ryan Wendell Nick McDonald	Logan Mankins Brian Waters Dan Connolly Dan Koppen Robert Gallery Ryan Wendell	Logan Mankins Dan Connolly Brian Waters Robert Gallery Ryan Wendell
Analysis: Could see Koppen finding his way on to the roster, but in this case I leaned toward youth and the future with Wendell and McDonald. Meanwhile, Gallery's status could be tied to Mankins' health.	Analysis: Gallery slides back onto roster with report from Boston Globe that Waters did not report to training camp on Wednesday.	Analysis: The Patriots have strong starters and depth along the interior of the offensive line.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (4)	Yates' projection (5)
Rob Ninkovich Trevor Scott Chandler Jones Jonathan Fanene Jake Bequette	Rob Ninkovich Trevor Scott Chandler Jones Jake Bequette	Chandler Jones Jonathan Fanene Rob Ninkovich Trevor Scott Jake Bequette
Analysis: Seeing the numbers here makes one wonder if Andre Carter's return will happen. A lot of bodies. Jermaine Cunningham, who Bill Belichick said had a "great" offseason, is on the bubble.	Analysis: It's the end of the road for Cunningham, unless he can beat out the newcomer Scott.	Analysis: This unique group has versatility and athleticism.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES/LINEMEN
Reiss' projection (4)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (3)
Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Brandon Deaderick Marcus Forston	Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Brandon Deaderick Jonathan Fanene Myron Pryor	Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Myron Pryor
Analysis: Pryor can stay on the PUP list to potentially provide an in-season boost, while Forston (Miami) has some positive qualities that could make him this year's undrafted player to stick and help lighten Wilfork's load.	Analysis: With Deaderick and Fanene possibly having more interior roles, Ron Brace gets pushed off the roster, although Pryor's health is worth monitoring. Gerard Warren could return midseason, as he did in 2011.	Analysis: The Patriots don't need a stable of backups along the interior defensive line, given the amount of sub defense they project to play.
LINEBACKERS
Reiss' projection (6)	Rodak's projection (7)	Yates' projection (6)
Bobby Carpenter Dane Fletcher Dont'a Hightower Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Jeff Tarpinian	Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Dont'a Hightower Dane Fletcher Bobby Carpenter Tracy White Jeff Tarpinian	Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Dont'a Hightower Dane Fletcher Jeff Taripinian Bobby Carpenter
Analysis: Tracy White, one of the club's top special-teams players the past two seasons, faces competition from players who project to contribute more in the growing-in-importance sub defense (Carpenter, Tarpinian).	Analysis: The Patriots kept seven linebackers to begin 2011-12, and this projection has them doing the same. Carpenter and Fletcher could have significant roles in sub packages.	Analysis: The trio of Mayo, Spikes and Hightower offers strong potential.
CORNERBACKS
Reiss' projection (6)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Devin McCourty Ras-I Dowling Kyle Arrington Sterling Moore Alfonzo Dennard Marquice Cole	Devin McCourty Kyle Arrington Ras-I Dowling Sterling Moore Marquice Cole	Kyle Arrington Devin McCourty Ras-I Dowling Sterling Moore Marquice Cole
Analysis: Cole sticks for his work on special teams, while rookie Dennard showed solid ball skills in spring camps and a competitiveness that reflected he could be a keeper.	Analysis: There may not be room for rookie Dennard, unless he can emerge on special teams. Cole provides more value on the 46-man game-day roster, even if he lacks Dennard's potential.	Analysis: McCourty, Arrington and Dowling lead the way in a position that needs to be better in 2012.
SAFETIES
Reiss' projection (4)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson Will Allen	Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson James Ihedigbo Nate Ebner	Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson Nate Ebner James Ihedigbo
Analysis: Allen flexed between safety and corner in spring camps, and in sub packages his coverage skills and veteran know-how get the nod over Ihedigbo and Sergio Brown, while Ebner lands on the practice squad.	Analysis: Ihedigbo edges out Allen based on special-teams play, while the team moves on from Josh Barrett and Brown.	Analysis: You can pencil in Chung as one starter, but who joins alongside him is less clear heading into camp.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
Stephen Gostkowski (kicker) Zoltan Mesko (punter) Danny Aiken (snapper)	Stephen Gostkowski Zoltan Mesko Danny Aiken	Stephen Gostkowski Zoltan Mesko Danny Aiken
Analysis: Only at kicker is their competition in camp, with Chris Koepplin potentially pushing Gostkowski.	Analysis: Not much competition here, although the Patriots have shown they aren't shy to make a change at long snapper.	Analysis: Aiken and Mesko have no backups right now, and it would be a major upset if Gostkowski were to lose his job to Koepplin.

Field Yates

ESPN Insider

Field Yates has previous experience interning with the New England Patriots on both their coaching and scouting staffs. A graduate of Wesleyan University (CT), he is a regular contributor to ESPN Boston's Patriots coverage and ESPN Insider.

Pats 53-man roster projection (v. 1.1)

A three-headed prognostication of how the team will look come season opener

Rank the Patriots on the bubble

PATRIOTS 53-MAN ROSTER PROJECTION (V. 1.1)

Field Yates

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