Commentary

Pats' 53-man roster projection (v. 5.0)

A three-headed prognostication of how the team will look come Friday night

Updated: August 30, 2012, 5:45 PM ET

By Mike Reiss, Mike Rodak and Field Yates | ESPNBoston.com

By 9 p.m. ET on Friday, all NFL teams will have to trim rosters to 53. But ESPN Boston is jumping the gun with its final dueling roster projections.

There are sure to be surprises, and Bill Belichick has already raised the possibility of adding players from other teams.

As usual, it figures to be action-packed. Before it gets to that point, here are our best guesses:

PATRIOTS' 53-MAN ROSTER PROJECTION (V. 5.0)

Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett	Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett	Tom Brady Brian Hoyer Ryan Mallett
Analysis: I would imagine that Bill Belichick has considered going with just two -- Brady and Mallett -- but the feeling here is that's too risky when there isn't a viable practice squad option just in case. Hoyer's $1.9 million salary would be heavy if the coaching staff felt Mallett had earned the No. 2 spot.	Analysis: I don't think Mallett has done anything to unseat Hoyer, who has received sparse playing time this preseason. A roster move is unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility at this position.	Analysis: Although they played a comparable number of snaps this preseason, Hoyer still seems like the safe bet to serve as Brady's top backup in 2012.
RUNNING BACKS
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen Danny Woodhead Brandon Bolden Jeff Demps	Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen Danny Woodhead Brandon Bolden Jeff Demps	Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen Danny Woodhead Brandon Bolden Jeff Demps
Analysis: Bolden seems to have done enough as a rusher and on special-teams coverage units to warrant a spot on not just the 53-man roster but also the 46-man game-day roster.	Analysis: I would think the team keeps all five players here, at least to start. The condition of Vereen, who was injured in the third preseason game, is not known.	Analysis: With Demps serving as a niche player on kickoff return and Bolden able to be used as an occasional fullback, the Patriots can afford to keep five bodies at the position.
FULLBACKS
Reiss' projection (0)	Rodak's projection (0)	Yates' projection (0)

Analysis: An injury to front-runner Spencer Larsen, coupled with Tony Fiammetta landing on the exempt list, altered the picture. Eric Kettani accounted for himself well, but he comes up just short.	Analysis: With Larsen going on IR, the Patriots go without a fullback. Wouldn't rule out a waiver claim or trade here because it seems the Patriots want the flexibility of having a fullback on the roster.	Analysis: With Bolden in tow to serve as a situational fullback, the Patriots opt not to keep Eric Kettani on the active roster. Count him as a solid practice squad candidate.
TIGHT ENDS
Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Daniel Fells	Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Daniel Fells	Rob Gronkowski Aaron Hernandez Daniel Fells
Analysis: On the 98.5 The Sports Hub pregame show on Wednesday, both president Jonathan Kraft and coach Bill Belichick talked about how it helps with planning for the future knowing that Gronkowski (2019) and Hernandez (2018) are locked up for the long term.	Analysis: Still have to wonder about Visanthe Shiancoe, who signed a contract with $400,000 in guaranteed money. But three should be plenty here, and Shiancoe remains out with a hamstring injury.	Analysis: Fells provides a nice complement to Gronkowski and Hernandez, who will look to build on their dynamic 2011 seasons.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Wes Welker Brandon Lloyd Deion Branch Julian Edelman Matthew Slater	Wes Welker Brandon Lloyd Deion Branch Julian Edelman Matthew Slater	Wes Welker Brandon Lloyd Deion Branch Julian Edelman Matthew Slater
Analysis: Remember how we wrote all offseason about an overstocked receiver corps? Outside of Lloyd, it looks similar to 2011. Branch earned the spot, outperforming Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and others.	Analysis: No surprises here, after Gaffney and Stallworth were cut earlier in the week. Seventh-round pick Jeremy Ebert is a prime practice squad candidate.	Analysis: The wide receiver position battle came into focus with the recent releases of Gaffney and Stallworth. Branch's impressive camp shows he still has what it takes to be a weapon within this offense.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Reiss' projection (8)	Rodak's projection (8)	Yates' projection (9)
Nate Solder Logan Mankins Dan Connolly Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon Ryan Wendell Donald Thomas Brian Waters	Nate Solder Logan Mankins Dan Connolly Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon Ryan Wendell Donald Thomas Nick McDonald	Nate Solder Logan Mankins Dan Connolly Sebastian Vollmer Marcus Cannon Ryan Wendell Donald Thomas Brian Waters Nick McDonald
Analysis: I'm taking the leap and putting Waters back in the mix. The tough cut is Dan Koppen, the veteran center who was playing in the fourth quarter of the preseason finale, which is seldom a good sign. Thomas, on the bubble, has proved to have value -- to this team or another (trade possibility?). McDonald could return when healthy or stick if a roster exemption is granted for Waters.	Analysis: I'm not ruling out a Waters return here, but even if he returns, the Patriots likely would get a roster exemption for him. It looks like the end of the road for Koppen.	Analysis: Waters' return slides Connolly into the starting center role and squeezes Koppen out of a job.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
Reiss' projection (4)	Rodak's projection (4)	Yates' projection (4)
Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Ron Brace Brandon Deaderick	Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Ron Brace Brandon Deaderick	Vince Wilfork Kyle Love Ron Brace Brandon Deaderick
Analysis: The big story here was the unexpected release of free-agent signee Jonathan Fanene. Also, credit to Brace for turning in the best camp of his four-year career. He has looked strong.	Analysis: No surprises here. Either Brace or Deaderick, assuming they make the cut, becomes a game-day inactive.	Analysis: Wilfork has shown in recent seasons that endurance is no issue for him. Expect Love to continue to play an integral role along the defensive front.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
Reiss' projection (6)	Rodak's projection (6)	Yates' projection (5)
Chandler Jones Rob Ninkovich Jermaine Cunningham Trevor Scott Jake Bequette Justin Francis	Chandler Jones Rob Ninkovich Jermaine Cunningham Trevor Scott Jake Bequette Justin Francis	Chandler Jones Rob Ninkovich Jermaine Cunningham Trevor Scott Jake Bequette
Analysis: One could make the case that Francis -- the rookie free agent out of Rutgers -- has outperformed third-round pick Bequette (Arkansas). In this case, Bequette still gets a spot in a Taylor Price-type development role initially.	Analysis: The third-round pick, Bequette, has barely played this preseason but sticks on the roster because of his draft status. The other five players provide depth and flexibility at an increasingly important position.	Analysis: Ultimately, the Patriots opt for Scott's experience in favor of Francis, the impressive undrafted rookie out of Rutgers.
LINEBACKERS
Reiss' projection (6)	Rodak's projection (6)	Yates' projection (6)
Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Dont'a Hightower Bobby Carpenter Niko Koutouvides Jeff Tarpinian	Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Dont'a Hightower Bobby Carpenter Niko Koutouvides Jeff Tarpinian	Jerod Mayo Brandon Spikes Dont'a Hightower Bobby Carpenter Niko Koutouvides Tracy White
Analysis: Mike Rivera could get consideration if Spikes isn't cleared for the season opener. Depth a bit thin here, although Ninkovich could provide help in a pinch.	Analysis: A bit thin on the back end. White would be a welcome boost but simply doesn't appear to be healthy. A waiver claim or trade is possible.	Analysis: This projection involves a bit of a leap of faith to include White, who has missed extensive time in training camp due to an undisclosed injury. Ultimately, he gets the edge over Tarpinian.
CORNERBACKS
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Kyle Arrington Devin McCourty Ras-I Dowling Marquice Cole Alfonzo Dennard	Kyle Arrington Devin McCourty Ras-I Dowling Marquice Cole Sterling Moore	Kyle Arrington Devin McCourty Ras-I Dowling Marquice Cole Sterling Moore
Analysis: Dennard, the seventh-round value pick, gets the surprising nod over Moore. I liked the way Dennard competed in the preseason finale and want to see more. Moore still has practice squad eligibility.	Analysis: With Cole having locked down a spot, there is no room for rookie Dennard.	Analysis: It's hard to see rookie Dennard jumping up the depth chart, and the Patriots are well-equipped in keeping five cornerbacks.
SAFETIES
Reiss' projection (5)	Rodak's projection (5)	Yates' projection (5)
Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson Nate Ebner Sergio Brown	Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson Nate Ebner James Ihedigbo	Patrick Chung Steve Gregory Tavon Wilson Nate Ebner James Ihedigbo
Analysis: The surprising emergence of Ebner as a viable defensive option opens up a special-teams-only spot for Brown, whose strong effort on fourth down in the preseason finale caught the eye. Ihedigbo could always return later in the year.	Analysis: With Chung injured, keeping Ihedigbo, who can play strong safety, the "money" position in dime packages and special teams, provides depth. Wilson and Ebner have looked strong.	Analysis: Wilson could be called upon early to fill in for Chung, who was absent from the Patriots' final two preseason games.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Reiss' projection (3)	Rodak's projection (3)	Yates' projection (3)
Stephen Gostkowski (kicker) Zoltan Mesko (punter) Danny Aiken (long snapper)	Stephen Gostkowski Zoltan Mesko Danny Aiken	Stephen Gostkowski Zoltan Mesko Danny Aiken
Analysis: Aiken has been a little shaky of late, and with veteran Lonie Paxton available, a move isn't out of the question. But the Patriots' hope is to let this group grow together.	Analysis: No surprises here.	Analysis: No need to overthink it on this one, as this trio is locked in.

Field Yates

ESPN Insider

Field Yates has previous experience interning with the New England Patriots on both their coaching and scouting staffs. A graduate of Wesleyan University (CT), he is a regular contributor to ESPN Boston's Patriots coverage and ESPN Insider.

Pats' 53-man roster projection (v. 5.0)

A three-headed prognostication of how the team will look come Friday night

PATRIOTS' 53-MAN ROSTER PROJECTION (V. 5.0)

Field Yates

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