Commentary

Patriots game-by-game predictions

An early best guess at how the 2013 season might play out for New England

Updated: April 19, 2013, 5:26 PM ET

By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com

Predicting the outcome of the New England Patriots' 2013 schedule is a tough task because so much can change on a week-to-week basis in the NFL.

Who really had the Patriots losing to the Cardinals in the home opener last year?

Looking back at past predictions, this is how the record stacks up:

2010: 9-7

2011: 11-5

2012: 13-3

Let's see if we can top it this year.

2013 Predictions: Mike Reiss breaks down the Patriots' season, game by game

	Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. -- Patriots at Bills (CBS) In Bill Belichick's 14 seasons as Patriots coach, the Bills have been the most frequent season-opening opponent (2003, 2006, 2009, 2013). The '03 game was played in Orchard Park as well, and it was the last season opener the Patriots lost, 31-0, with the Drew Bledsoe-led Bills galvanized by the presence of safety Lawyer Milloy, who shockingly had been cut by the Patriots the week before. This game is going to be tougher than it looks. There's always an element of the unknown in the season opener, and that is compounded by the fact the Bills have a new coaching staff. Score (record): Patriots 31, Bills 23 (1-0)
	Thursday, Sept. 12, 8 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Jets (NFLN) The Butt Fumble, Part II? The Jets have a major quarterback question and it's hard to imagine them coming into Gillette Stadium and topping the Patriots in a home opener. Rex Ryan's ability to draw up solid defensive plans to slow down Tom Brady at times shouldn't be overlooked, but it would be a major surprise if the Patriots don't take care of business. Score (record): Patriots 27, Jets 17 (2-0)
	Sunday, Sept. 22, 8:20 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Buccaneers (FOX) Two top storylines to consider for this game: Bill Belichick vs. Greg Schiano -- two close friends with great respect for each other, and Patriots cornerback Aqib Talib facing his former team. The teams also meet in the preseason at Gillette Stadium, which is a nice break for the Buccaneers to become familiar with the stadium (their last visit was in 2005). One more thought: The Patriots will face cornerback Darrelle Revis in Week 2 or Week 3, no matter what happens with his potential trade from the Jets to Buccaneers. He's always a tough matchup. Score (record): Patriots 24, Buccaneers 20 (3-0)
	Sunday, Sept. 29, 8:30 p.m. -- Patriots at Falcons (NBC) This could be one of the best atmospheres that the Patriots play in all season. The Georgia Dome can get extremely loud. If there are any doubts about how much the Patriots' pass defense has improved, this will be a great barometer as the Falcons can get the ball down the field. One of the fun storylines in this one is how former Patriots director of college scouting Thomas Dimitroff, now in his sixth season as Falcons general manager, has built a Super Bowl contender that Belichick could be proud of -- even if they have different approaches in doing so. Can't wait to see the matchup of Julio Jones, the receiver Belichick advised Dimitroff against trading up for in the 2011 draft, according to Michael Holley's "Patriots Reign" book, against Aqib Talib & Co. Score (record): Falcons 38, Patriots 35 OT (3-1)
	Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m. -- Patriots at Bengals (CBS) The Bengals had one of the NFL's top defenses last year, but the question when looking at this game is whether they will have the firepower to stay with the Patriots. They looked anything but explosive at the end of 2012; then again, there's no guarantee that carries over to '13. It will be fun to catch up with Bengals running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one of the all-around good guys to come through the Patriots' locker room in recent years. The Law Firm might get his 100 yards in this one, but the Patriots will find a way to get the victory. Score (record): Patriots 23, Bengals 17 (4-1)
	Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Saints (FOX) This will be quarterback Drew Brees' first regular-season visit to Gillette Stadium as a member of the Saints, as the last time New Orleans played here in the regular season was 2005. Everyone knows about the Saints' explosive offense, which can stress a defense with its different packages and alignments, but another thing that can't be overlooked is the presence of first-year defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The last two times Ryan coordinated a plan against the Patriots, the Tom Brady-led attack was held to 14 points in a loss at Cleveland (2010) and 20 points in a win over the Cowboys at Gillette Stadium (2011). Score (record): Saints 27, Patriots 24 (4-2)
	Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 ET -- Patriots at Jets (CBS) This looks like a rebuilding year for the Jets, and by this point of the year, we should have a better idea if that is indeed the case. One thing to consider: This is the second game in two weeks against a Ryan-coached defense. This isn't to overblow the fact, but there is respect for some of the creative plans they've come up with against Tom Brady & Co. in past years. The Patriots still should win, but whatever potentially works the week before for Rob Ryan is likely to be seen in some form again in this game. Score (record): Patriots 23, Jets 20 (5-2)
	Sunday, Oct. 27, 1 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Dolphins (CBS) Has second-year Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill taken the next step in his progression? If so, this could be the Patriots' toughest game to date in the AFC East. The Dolphins have their bye in Week 6, then host the Bills, before the trip to Gillette Stadium and a quick turnaround for a Thursday home game against the Bengals. Many Patriots fans hope they can find a Mike Wallace-type receiver, and this will be a chance to see what type of difference the speedy Wallace has made in his first year with the Dolphins. Unlike last year, when the Dolphins came to Gillette for the late December season finale, they likely catch a weather-related break this time around. Score (record): Patriots 30, Dolphins 20 (6-2)
	Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:25 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Steelers (CBS) The Patriots will want to go into their bye week with solid momentum, especially since they won't be playing again for another 15 days, which is a long time without having the chance to get back into the win column. Before the game, we'll watch closely to see if Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders thanks Bill Belichick for getting him a $1.2 million raise this season. During the game, we can expect a physical slugfest. It always is when these teams meet. Score (record): Patriots 27, Steelers 24 (7-2)
	>> BYE WEEK <<
	Monday, Nov. 18, 8:40 p.m. -- Patriots at Panthers (ESPN) How did this one wind up on "Monday Night Football"? That was the first reaction when taking an initial glance at the Patriots' complete schedule. This will cap off a brutal stretch for the Panthers, who were 7-9 last season, as they will have hosted the Falcons, visited the 49ers, and then entertain the Patriots. The NFL loves its stars and this is a chance to highlight Panthers quarterback Cam Newton on the national stage, comparing him to Tom Brady. Score (record): Patriots 35, Panthers 17 (8-2)
	Sunday, Nov. 24, 8:30 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Broncos (NBC) This is the first week that the NFL can flex games into this prime-time spot, but league sources confirm there is a 0.0000001 chance of that happening. This is one of the marquee games on the entire NFL calendar. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Wes Welker's return. Outside of Week 2, this is the only time the Patriots will have a short week of preparation leading into the game. League sources also confirm that Welker will be cheered wildly by Patriots fans. Score (record): Patriots 31, Broncos 30 (9-2)
	Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:25 p.m. -- Patriots at Texans (CBS) Last year, the Texans drew the tough assignment of traveling to Gillette Stadium for a Dec. 10 contest that marked their third straight game on the road. This is the reverse scenario, as the home game against the Patriots marks the third straight game they will be at Reliant Stadium (following contests against the Raiders and Jaguars). Although the Texans didn't exactly impress in matchups against the Patriots last season, they are tougher at home and this looks like a tough spot for the Patriots, who will be coming off an emotionally charged game against the Broncos. Score (record): Texans 30, Patriots 24 (9-3)
	Sunday, Dec. 8, 1 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Browns (CBS) It's generally better for the Patriots when teams from warmer-weather climates come to town in December (the Buccaneers, Saints or Dolphins would have been ideal around this time), but the Browns know what it's like to play in the cold. If the Patriots can get ahead early, maybe this is the one time that Bill Belichick gives Tom Brady an early hook to showcase Ryan Mallett to the Browns for a possible offseason trade. Unlikely. The Browns could be better than people think. Score (record): Patriots 23, Browns 17 (10-3)
	Sunday, Dec. 15, 1 p.m. -- Patriots at Dolphins (CBS) Of all the Patriots' division games, this is the one that tops the list for a possible loss. But we're not completely sold on the Dolphins yet. Also, it used to be accurate to say that the Patriots have struggled in South Florida, but have you checked the recent results? A 41-14 win in 2010, a 38-24 win in the 2011 season opener and a 23-16 win in 2012. Until there is stronger evidence to go against it, this would set the Patriots up for another perfect record in division play. Score (record): Patriots 20, Dolphins 16 (11-3)
	Sunday, Dec. 22, 8:30 p.m. -- Patriots at Ravens (NBC) So much can happen between the start and the end of a season, but this looks like a real treat right now, a potential preview of a high-stakes playoff game. The Ravens are tough to beat at M&T Bank Stadium, and it could be frigid for this prime-time tilt. There have been times when the Patriots haven't truly been tested at the end of a season, and one wonders how that has affected them in the playoffs. That shouldn't be a problem this year. Score (record): Ravens 24, Patriots 23 (11-4)
	Sunday, Dec. 29, 1 p.m. -- Patriots vs. Bills (CBS) The Patriots open the season with a game against the Bills, and also close the season against them, just like in 2003. We remember what happened that year. The Patriots hope history repeats itself with a Super Bowl championship. The Bills haven't been to the playoffs since 1999, and it looks like that drought will continue. Score (record): Patriots 35, Bills 14 (12-4)