This kid ain't Cotto, folks
Make no mistake: Austin Trout deserves to be considered as an even-money proposition going into Saturday's fight against Canelo Alvarez. He is skilled, has solid fundamentals and knows how to maximize his physical talents and advantages. He has fast hands and great lateral movement, and we saw the fits that Alvarez endured when Alfonso Gomez -- Alfonso Gomez! - rat-a-tatted him early in their contest in September 2011.
Trout is surely superior to Gomez in most every way, but the key takeaway from that bout isn't that Gomez scored early; it's that he was stopped. Stopped prematurely, perhaps, but by then the direction of the fight was clear and the bout was going to end only one way. Like Floyd Mayweather Jr., Alvarez isn't afraid to give up a couple of early rounds to get used to an opponent's timing, in the belief that soon enough he'll gain the measure of his man and reel him in.
Another reason for the Trout enthusiasm is that all of us in boxing are very good at predicting what just happened. Trout just thoroughly outboxed a future Hall of Famer in Miguel Cotto. Cotto and Canelo have somewhat similar styles. Ergo, Trout outboxes Alvarez.
Except that the differences between Alvarez and Cotto are just as significant as the similarities. Although Cotto has been plying his trade at junior middleweight since 2010, he is realistically an average-sized welterweight. He was physically outmatched by Trout's longer reach. Alvarez, although still shorter than his American counterpart, is a more natural 154-pound fighter and should be less troubled by his foe's physical advantages.
Cotto, as Trout acknowledged, is also pretty extensively battle-scarred after years of hard fights against the best in the game. Alvarez, by contrast, is young and, even after 42 professional contests, fresh. Further, Cotto has at times shown a tendency toward being underprepared and lacking in stamina -- criticisms that have not been leveled at Canelo, whose work ethic is generally praised.
I can absolutely see Trout winning this. I can see him schooling Alvarez. Of course, this is Texas, so I can also picture him whupping the Mexican and getting tagged with a loss. But my gut tells me that the fight will go something like this:
Canelo will look to test Trout early, putting the pressure on him in an attempt to prevent him from getting into his box-and-move rhythm. For a couple of rounds, that will work, until Trout begins to time him and settles into something of a groove. Halfway through the fight, the contest will be delicately poised, perhaps with Trout fractionally ahead. But Alvarez will keep coming, and soon Trout will realize he is finding it harder and harder to deploy the lateral movement that is the key to his success. In turn, Alvarez -- whose footwork is better than he is sometimes given credit for -- will be able to pivot so that Trout finds it harder to escape and spends more time in front of Canelo, which is how the young Mexican star likes it. The final third of the fight will be all Alvarez as he pounds his way to a unanimous decision win.
Lefty Trout still too tricky
There is something commendable about the fact that the greatest advocate for Canelo Alvarez shaking the dreaded label of having been a protected fighter is the junior middleweight titlist himself.
As the tale goes, it was the Mexican sensation who went above the desires and fears of his promoter to demand that his opponent Saturday, in his first legitimate test to date, be fellow unbeaten titlist Austin Trout.
And let's face it: Alvarez clearly has walked a soft path to the outskirts of pound-for-pound consideration, not having been tested by a quality fighter in his prime, let alone one as slick and difficult as the southpaw Trout.
Alvarez has feasted exclusively on a diet of older and smaller opponents during his two-year title run. Any admonition to withhold criticism based on the fact Canelo is just 22 can be met with a reminder that he has been a professional for more than seven years and already has more pro fights than Sugar Ray Leonard put in over his entire career.
That's what makes Saturday's bout the ultimate risk/reward opportunity for Canelo and a chance at instant validation (or exposure). Although this isn't necessarily a trap fight -- Alvarez might be a slight betting favorite, but most experts have labeled it a pick 'em fight -- it's still one the Cinnamon Kid will have considerable trouble winning.
Trout is simply too crafty and polished for the straight-ahead and aggressive Alvarez, who carries the kind of power that grinds down his opponents over multiple rounds but doesn't often end a fight with one punch.
Let's be clear about something: Trout isn't just a difficult opponent based on Alvarez's age or inexperience. In fact, it's Canelo, who turned pro a month after Trout in 2005, who has already been in more title fights than his 27-year-old opponent. Trout is the type of fighter whose contrasting style seemingly would always give Alvarez trouble.
Trout's strengths as a cunning boxer who uses a combination of footwork, awkwardness and tremendous accuracy had been on display to relatively small audiences since he defeated Canelo's older brother, Rigoberto Alvarez, for a 154-pound title just over two years ago. Trout was the definition of an under-the-radar fighter who lacked a fan base or exciting style as he climbed the ladder by paying dues at faraway venues in Mexico, Canada and Panama.
All that changed when Trout was given a somewhat surprising chance to record the signature victory his career had lacked in an upset of Miguel Cotto at Madison Square Garden in December. The New Mexico native was so much more than simply the difficult out he was advertised to be. Trout proved a durable, tough and deceptively strong junior middleweight who stood his ground and fought back in exciting fashion, coming alive in the championship rounds to stamp his stunning victory.
Alvarez will surely prove to be a tougher challenge than the smaller, faded Cotto come Saturday. And there are still enough questions about Canelo's ceiling for it to be possible that he'll find an escape for every trap Trout is likely to set.
But in the end, it's that combination of size, speed and ring IQ that makes it difficult to doubt the savvy Trout will continue his run to the top with another convincing decision victory in front of a hostile enemy crowd.
PODCASTS
Play Podcast Kieran Mulvaney looks back on a wild weekend of fights and makes his prediction for Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Robert Guerrero.
Play Podcast Kieran Mulvaney considers what we learned from Canelo Alvarez's win over Austin Trout and previews a busy weekend of fights.
Play Podcast Kieran Mulvaney looks back at Guillermo Rigondeaux's emphatic win and aftermath and ahead to Saturday's clash in San Antonio.
Play Podcast In this week's podcast, Kieran Mulvaney previews Saturday's Macau card and is still in awe of Alvarado-Rios II.
Play Podcast Brian Campbell chats with new middleweight Donovan George, who is dropping from 168 pounds to take on David Lopez.
Play Podcast Brian Campbell talks to junior middleweight Willie Nelson about his recent highlight-reel knockout and promising future.
Play Podcast Kieran Mulvaney reviews Hopkins-Cloud, previews Bradley-Provodnikov and ponders Broner-Malignaggi.
Play Podcast Kieran Mulvaney previews Tavoris Cloud-Bernard Hopkins and reflects on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.'s suspension.

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Just filed the updated divisional #boxing rankings for Tuesday. Some changes at 140.
about 2 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Attention UK #FightFreaks: Going on @talkSPORT on the @tsExtraTime show to talk #boxing in a few minutes so tune in if you are up!
about 6 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
RT @tsExtraTime: @danrafaelespn joins us next with a look at how British boxing did over the weekend....
about 6 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Manager Cameron Dunkin told me that @Timbradleyjr has signed his contract for the fall fight with @jmmarquez_1 #boxing @trboxing @HBOboxing
about 7 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
If you missed my Monday Scorecard from this morning, here it is wrapping up a busy #boxing weekend: http://t.co/B4jXNVYdQQ
about 8 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna
RT @ALosGolpes_ESPN: Al aire en 25 min por @ESPNDeportes @Faitelson_ESPN @osunaespn @Jcchavez115 y el legendario referi Joe Cortez
about 9 hours ago
- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna

- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna
El referi salon de la fama Joe Cortez nos acompaña en @ALosGolpes_ESPN. Habla de su carrera y la polemica de Lebedev http://t.co/yiJAFItStb
about 10 hours ago
- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna

- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna
En @ALosGolpes_ESPN hablamos del categorico triunfo de Mathysse sobre Peterson con @Jcchavez115 y @Faitelson_ESPN http://t.co/I3m0yMx3Py
about 10 hours ago
- osunaespn Bernardo Osuna

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
@FloydMayweather Cannot believe I forgot to get my #MoneyTeam hat when I was at your fight with Guerrero!!!!
about 12 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Just got call from Arum going off on wretched WBC for what they did to @andreward and he doesnt even promote Ward. #wbcisdisgusting #boxing
about 12 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
My story on Australia's @realdealgeale coming to US to defend his 160 belt vs @DarrenBarker82 on @HBOboxing 8/17: http://t.co/xON4JTuqAp
about 12 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
In case I forgot to mention it: #wbcisdisgusting
about 13 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
RT @Gilberto_722: I have to agree with @danrafaelespn on all his tweets about WBC. The define what's wrong in boxing. #WBCisdisgusting
about 13 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
RT @BaileyMab225: @danrafaelespn did you not realise wbc stands for we be crooks
about 13 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
The wretched WBC does not apply is "rules" consistently and that is only one of many reasons why #wbcisdisgusting @andreward
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Floyd went 20 months between winning wretched WBC 147 & 1st defense & went to jail. Not stripped like @andreward #wbcisdisgusting
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Wretched WBC stripped @andreward yet Vitali Klitschko fought same day in Sept and no word about being stripped. #wbcisdisagusting
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Now the winner of Sakio Bika-MA Periban fight can go dumpster diving for the title that rightfully belongs to @andreward #wbcisdisgusting
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
Wretched WBC can take 'champ emeritus' & stuff it. I'm not as kind as @andreward's carefully worded statement but he knows #wbcisdisgusting
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael

- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
So @andreward no longer has a wretched WBC title but does any1 care? Is he still not No. 1 168-pounder? He proved it. #wbcisdisgusting
about 14 hours ago
- danrafaelespn Dan Rafael
COLUMNISTS
Cruel Hand Luke
Lucas Matthysse's power prevailed again on Saturday as a series of left hooks claimed Lamont Peterson as the latest knockout victim of "The Machine."
What Manny could learn from 'Money'
Manny Pacquiao's cavalier approach to business stands in contrast to Floyd Mayweather's savvy.


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