By Kieran Mulvaney
ESPN.com
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I'm not about to stand up and declare that Miguel Cotto will beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. on Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. I'm not sure I'd predict victory for anyone smaller than Wladimir Klitschko against Mayweather, on Saturday or any other night. But for Miguel Cotto fans who may be wondering whether the junior middleweight champ has any shot at all, or who are feeling aggrieved and anxious at the widespread dismissal of their man's chances, I offer two names by way of encouragement:

Jose Luis Castillo and Oscar De La Hoya.

These were, of course, the two men who came closest to defeating Mayweather. De La Hoya dropped a split decision to Mayweather almost exactly five years ago and remains the only professional to ever win on a scorecard against him. And Castillo fought so well against Mayweather that he remains the only boxer to have earned a rematch against the man then known as Pretty Boy. Indeed, there are those who still maintain the Mexican deserved the nod in their first contest.

Granted, just about every opponent since has announced his intention to follow the Castillo blueprint, and every one of them has failed. But several factors make Cotto the most likely to succeed where others have fallen short. First, like De La Hoya, he has an excellent jab; that jab gave Mayweather difficult moments until Oscar began to tire. And although Cotto doesn't have the height and reach advantages the Golden Boy enjoyed, when Cotto deploys his jab to full effect, it can be a thumping weapon, as Shane Mosley can testify.

If Cotto is able to use that jab to keep Mayweather on the back foot, Floyd will have a harder time gaining the leverage he needs for his fast counters. And if Cotto is able to trap Mayweather against the ropes, the champ has the style and ability to do what Castillo did: swarm Mayweather, stay on top of him, bully him, not give him room to breathe. Whereas many opponents make the mistake in that position of trying to hit Mayweather's head, Cotto is a natural body puncher, and his left hook can take the legs out of the best of fighters over 12 rounds.

Add to that the fact that Mayweather no longer deploys the lateral movement he did as a younger man, and the conditions are right for Cotto to pull off the upset. Will he do it? I'm still not prepared to go that far. But I'd argue that those who dismiss him entirely do so at their peril.