Hendry's rebuilding job not as impossible as it seems to many
October 6, 2009, 4:47 PM
By: Bruce Levine
Rebuilding the team that fell 14 games in the standings from 2008 might not be as difficult a chore for general manager Jim Hendry as some people might assume.
Carlos Zambrano was hampered by injuries this season, but still pitched well at times.
The Cubs have four of their five starting pitchers under contract for next season. All four had ERAs under 4.00, and all four had double-digit wins, except for Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster all spent a month or more on the disabled list, missing between five and six starts, and, for that matter, rookie Randy Wells didn't become a part of the rotation until the injuries started to take their toll on the other starters. Wells was one of the bright spots this season for the Cubs, compiling 12 wins and an ERA right around 3.00.
The most likely scenario in the offseason will have the team allowing right-hander Rich Harden to test the free-agent waters. The Cubs will not offer arbitration to Harden, who was their top strikeout pitcher in 2009. Credit should be given to the Cubs' medical and training staff, which did a fabulous job keeping the oft-injured pitcher on the mound the last year and a half. And to Harden's credit, the extra work he did last offseason was also a key factor in his ability to make 26 starts this season.
For 2010, a fifth starter may come out of the combination of left-hander Sean Marshall and former Notre Dame football star Jeff Samardzija, who will be pitching winter ball in Mexico. The Cubs were happy with his development late in the season as he was able to master some semblance of off-speed pitches.
The Cubs' bullpen in 2010 will be headed by closer Carlos Marmol, who was stellar down the stretch, closing out 11 straight save opportunities to end the season. As for the Cubs' setup role, the key is left-hander John Grabow, the 31-year old veteran acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh at the July 31st trade deadline. Grabow can become a free agent in November, but the Cubs have exclusive negotiating rights with him until the free-agent period begins ten days after the World Series concludes. The team hopes to sign Grabow to a two-year contract, and sources told me weeks ago that some preliminary discussions had already begun between the team and Grabow's agent.
Their right-handed setup man next season may be late-season call-up Esmailin Caridad. Caridad allowed just three earned runs in 14 outings, striking out 17 while walking only three hitters. Caridad will be working on his off-speed pitches during the winter ball season. Right-hander Aaron Heilman is also under Cubs protection, and although he is still unsigned Heilman could be used in a trade scenario. The Cubs also have LH Tom Gorzelanny and Marshall to consider for bullpen duty. Marshall will be eligible for arbitration for the first time in November, as will Marmol. Adding one or two other bullpen pitchers will be something the Cubs address in the offseason.
Catching will be an interesting area for the North Siders to consider. The 2008 rookie of the year Geovany Soto was a bust in 2009, hitting just .218. This was particularly puzzling to the Cubs since Soto made the All-Star team in 2008 and was one of the team leaders as they won 97 games. Most observers believe that Soto will rebound. "I'm going to work hard all offseason and be back and ready to have a great season next year," Soto told me. Backup Koyie Hill did a super job handling the pitching staff, throwing out 40 percent of would-be base stealers, one of the top percentages in the majors. However, Hill's .237 batting average and light slugging percentage works against him ever being considered the everyday guy.
Team speed and outfield offensive production are the major needs for the Cubs in 2010. The Angels' Chone Figgins is the leadoff man/second baseman the Cubs need to help their run production issues. At 32, Figgins will want at least four years and $40 million when he comes out as a free agent next month. The Angels infielder provides on-base percentage and base-stealing ability, something lacking from this year's Cubs team. The Cubs stole only 56 bases in 2009, the fewest in all of baseball. Figgins himself stole 42, although he was thrown out a major league-leading 17 times. The signing of Figgins also would supply another left-handed bat, an area they've looked to address over the last two or three seasons.
The team has been chasing a top run-producing outfielder since Moises Alou left the team after the 2005 season. Trading the contract of beleaguered outfielder Milton Bradley will be a key starting point in pursuing another offensive contributor. Bradley can be a very productive run producer in the right situation, that being on a small market club like Tampa Bay or Texas. The temperamental and talented Bradley is owed $21.5 million over the next two years: $8.5 million in 2010 and $13 million in 2011. The team will eat some of Bradley's contract, but not as much as the public thinks. For the last three weeks, Hendry has been hard at work using all of his creative skills trying to deal Bradley, and a possible deal for Tampa's Pat Burrell has been discussed (Burrell is owed $9m in 2010).
The Cubs will not eat as much of Milton Bradley's contract to move the troubled outfielder as some think.
The Cubs need a stronger bench going into next season. Jeff Baker, who came over from Colorado, will likely be back since he can back up both second and third base. After signing Baker, Reed Johnson, another would-be free agent, also makes sense to return even though the gritty outfielder has had injury issues the last two season, including a shaky back problem. Looking at other back-ups, both Aaron Miles and Mike Fontenot need to be replaced. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Miles is under contract for next season at $2.7 million. Another middle-infielder like veteran Orlando Cabrera might be a nice short-term sign for the Cubs, allowing minor league stud shortstop Starlin Castro a chance to get one more year of experience under his belt before jumping to the majors.
The Cubs have $117 million committed to ten players already for next season. Add into that the fact that both Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez can become free agents after 2010.
This offseason will be a busy one for the Cubs' GM. "We'll make the club better," Hendry said. "That we are confident about. Who goes and who stays and who comes in are yet to be determined. We're going to get after it with our scouts next week. We'll then get a final payroll number and go from there. You have to mix and match and hopefully make improvements that work. Sometimes they do, and in the last offseason they didn't. At this point you do all the preparation that you can."
With new owner Tom Ricketts set to take over the team in the next few weeks, having a face for the organization should provide better direction to both Hendry and Chairman of the Board Crane Kenney in the future.
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