Updated: August 5, 2009, 5:13 PM ET

Cubs need an Angel in the bullpen

Gregg not long-term answer for North Siders

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By Alvin Anol, Marty Callinan and Mark Francescutti
ESPN Stats & Information

Kevin Gregg is still the Chicago Cubs closer, despite two awful blown saves this weekend. But should he be?

Here's why Gregg could be replaced -- and why the Cubs' best choice statistically is right-hander Angel Guzman. All stats entering Monday unless noted.

GREGG RANKS POORLY AMONG CLOSERS

The Cubs acquired Gregg in Nov. 2008 from the Florida Marlins, which ended their relationship with Kerry Wood. The move came despite Gregg having nine blown saves in 2008 (Wood had just 6).

Gregg's hold on the closer's job appeared good after an excellent July (8-for-8 on save chances, 1.93 ERA).

But overall, Gregg is not an elite closer.

In fact, he's in the lower third in numerous statistics, including ERA, blown saves, save percentage, strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against.

BELOW AVERAGE

How Gregg ranks among the 30 MLB closers (entering Monday)

Category Stat Rank
ERA 4.17 24th
Blown saves 5 T-29th
Save percentage 80.8 24th
Strikeouts/walks ratio 2.4 21st
WHIP 1.35 25th
Opponents' batting average .237 21st

For a full breakdown of closers, check out ESPN's closer report

Even if Chicago sticks with Gregg, he doesn't look like a long-term option. He signed a one-year deal with the Cubs prior to the season.

MARMOL IS TOO WILD TO BE A CLOSER

Carlos Marmol has almost all the tools to be a closer except one: A GPS unit to find the strike zone.

Marmol led the league in walks among relievers with 48 (entering Monday). He also led the league in hit batsmen with (10). Mariano Rivera, by comparison, had six walks total.

Like Rivera, mowing hitters down isn't a problem for Marmol. He ranks in the top 10 among relievers in strikeouts -- but none of those 10 relievers have more than 30 walks (next closest is Seattle's David Aardsma with 27).

Scary stat of the season: When Marmol walks two or more batters, his ERA balloons to 9.75. When he walks zero or one batter, it's 1.49.

WALKING DOWN A DANGEROUS ROAD

The Cubs have three relievers amongst the leaders in walks for the 2009 season (entering Monday).

Player Team IP BB
Carlos Marmol CHC 51 48
Chad Durbin PHI 48.2 33
Seth McClung MIL 51.2 32
Aaron Heilman CHC 50.1 30
John Grabow CHC 49 30

WHY GUZMAN IS A BETTER CHOICE

The heavenly response to the Cubs' closer woes: They need an Angel.

Some aren't wowed by Guzman's stuff (his fastball is in the low 90s compared with mid-upper 90s for Marmol), but his numbers prove in many ways why he's a better choice than Marmol or Gregg.

Guzman is &

  • Stronger with runners in scoring position. Opponents are hitting just .075.

  • Throws fewer pitches per batter -- not allowing hitters to get deep into counts.

  • Induces more ground balls than Marmol or Gregg.

  • Walks fewer batters, though he strikes them out less often.

  • He doesn't put guys on base. His on-base percentage is low (.265) compared with Marmol's outrageous .371.

  • Throws first-pitch strikes at 59.1% -- about the same as Gregg (61.4%) and much better than Marmol (47.5%).

    • ANGEL RISES HIGHER

    How Angel Guzman compares with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol in several key categories (entering Monday)

    Category Guzman Gregg Marmol
    ERA 2.37 4.17 3.53
    P/PA 4.02 4.43 4.33
    K/BB 2.40 2.43 1.25
    OBP .265 .317 .371
    OPS .604 .750 .606
    Opp. BA w/RISP .075 .105 .183

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