Sept. 12
It's understandable -- and I've seen it before -- that a city gets in a tizzy when you talk about a move that could send its NFL team out of town.

	Irsay

Nevertheless, the Indianapolis Colts could be the Los Angeles Colts next year.

Or they could be the Indianapolis Colts for the next 10 years, just as they were the Baltimore Colts 18 years ago. In other words, they come and they go.

As one high-ranking league official said, "We never wanted, and we never approved, a team in Indianapolis ... but we also have worked very hard at stabilizing all our markets. So we're working with them right now, not against them."

New Indianapolis mayor Bart Peterson has visited the league offices in New York and has maintained a recent dialogue with officials, according to league sources (the problem with the violent "denials" is that everyone erroneously assumes that NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue is always the league contact). Peterson wants to save his city and save the Colts. That's a noble thing. That's good politics.

	"	L.A. is a very sensitive, diverse and fragile market ... we have to be careful. L.A. may be bigger than Irsay can chew on. "
		— an NFL official

Jim Irsay, the Colts owner, also reiterated last week that he is "hopeful" and "I'm an optimist ... although I have people I trust who think I'm hopelessly optimistic about this situation." Translated, Irsay is working hard with mayor Peterson to come up with a solution while his confidants believe the solution isn't easy.

Leverage for a new stadium? Nope. Irsay has been honest enough to state clearly in the past year that a new stadium is not a cure-all to the Colts' problems.

The Indianapolis market does not project the means to make this a success story. It's unlikely it can sell all the luxury suites, club seats and season tickets that it will take to make the Colts a financially competitive franchise in today's NFL. Moreover, the subsidization arrangement currently in place -- in which the city writes the team a check to cover a shortage in revenues -- is now frowned upon by the league. For one, it's morally wrong. For another, it's a band-aid, not a long-term solution, and ultimately creates ill will, such as the Chargers are experiencing in San Diego.

Indianapolis a tough market for NFL
The Indianapolis Star reported in Thursday's edition that the city's payments to the Colts could jump to more than $10 million annually by 2004 -- "money on top of substantial payments Indianapolis already makes to the Colts."

The subsidization plan between Indianapolis and the Colts also could be the focal point of a major brouhaha at the end of this season if Irsay tries to walk away from his lease. The deal between the two parties was restructured in 1999 and -- depending on whom you want to believe -- leaves the Colts an out as early as 2003 if certain financial stipulations are not met.

There are enough variables in the formulas to create a path out of Indianapolis, according to team and league sources, that possibly would lead to playing next season in the Rose Bowl, which has recently hired Maryland consultant John Moag. Moag is the Maryland consultant who was instrumental in attracting the Cleveland Browns to Baltimore.

Sources say that Irsay has a couple of "deadlines" in mind as he weighs his options. One is around Dec. 1, when a source says Irsay "will see where he's at with things." The other deadline is around Feb. 1, which was described by the source as "something close to a drop-dead date."

Irsay hasn't just had his hand out. He has poured approximately $115 million of his own cash into the franchise over the past few years in building what he believes is the biggest scouting department in the NFL. He also has infused money into marketing, hoping to reinvigorate his fan base, and held the line on ticket prices only to be frustrated by season-ticket sales that have dipped below 40,000.

It's not as if the Colts don't have something to offer. They had what Irsay considers a "magical run" in 1995 when the Colts fell one Hail Mary pass short of a Super Bowl trip. They have averaged 10 wins per season over the past three years. They have some of the NFL's top stars in Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison, a five-time executive of the year in Bill Polian and a winning coach in Tony Dungy.

"Short of actually going to the Super Bowl, (Irsay) believes that he's done everything possible to induce the market -- but the pulse is still 36,000 season tickets, and that bothers him a lot," a team source said. It bothers more than Irsay. An offseason media survey that said Indianapolis fans still prefer the NBA's Indiana Pacers and basketball drew the ire of several Colts players -- especially Manning, according to sources. The quarterback was accustomed to 100,000-plus crowds as a collegian at Tennessee.

NFL wouldn't rubber-stamp move to L.A.
Irsay will not get a free pass to Los Angeles, if he tries to make a move, according to league sources. Tagliabue has appointed a working group comprised of five owners and executives to oversee the Los Angeles project.

One member said, "I'd rather doubt that (Irsay) would be allowed to make this move. Remember, we have very specific policies and guidelines in place and you just can't get up and move like his father (Robert) did. I think Jimmy would meet considerable resistance. He'd have to have a compelling case, which may be hard to make when you have a city as proactive as Indianapolis has been in terms of the politicians and leaders there trying to make this work ... but we are also aware that the market has real problems, too."

Another league official said there's concern about whether Irsay is the right owner for the Los Angeles market.

"L.A. is a very sensitive, diverse and fragile market with the stadium issues very unresolved," the official said. "We have to be careful. L.A. may be bigger than Irsay can chew on. On the other hand, he does have a very identifiable franchise because of the Colts history, and he does have marquee players, which an entertainment base like L.A demands."

Another league source suggested that the only way Irsay would be allowed to move is if he "took on a major ownership partner in Los Angeles." That is not necessarily a venture that Irsay would embrace, which is another reason why he is willing to work things out with mayor Peterson.