ESPN College Sports

With two weeks to go until the field of 64 is chosen for the NCAA baseball tournament, it's time to crank up the bracketology machine and see where we stand.

There hasn't been much movement among the national seeds over the past month or so, but Florida State's series win over NC State on Monday night moved the Seminoles into the final national seed spot at the Wolfpack's expense. Clemson has made a late-season charge as well and could claim the spot with a series win in Tallahassee this weekend.

Barring any major collapses over the final two weeks of the season, the other seven national seeds are secure: Vanderbilt and LSU from the SEC, North Carolina and Virginia from the ACC, Oregon State and Oregon from the Pac-12 and Cal State Fullerton from the Big West have all been near the top of the polls and RPI rankings all season.

Filling this season's role of Cinderella from the north is Indiana. The Hoosiers are 38-11 overall and in first place in the Big Ten. With an RPI in the top 20 and a brand new stadium, postseason baseball will be coming to Bloomington this season. If the Hoosiers sweep the regular season and conference tournament titles, they could sneak in as a national seed.

Indiana isn't the only team outside the traditional baseball powers that could be hosting a regional this season. Kansas State is atop the Big 12 and hovering near the top 20 in RPI, while South Alabama leads the Sun Belt (which is fifth in RPI) and joins Indiana in the top 15 in RPI. The NCAA loves to reward schools outside the traditional power base for strong seasons -- especially those that don't normally host regionals. That could be enough to push these teams past some of the usual suspects from the SEC.

Speaking of the SEC, the conference provides some interesting cases for the selection committee. Vanderbilt and LSU are secure as regional hosts, and South Carolina isn't far behind at fourth in the conference and boasting a strong RPI.

But the other candidates to host a regional have disparities among their conference standing and RPI. Arkansas has the third-best conference record but an RPI outside the top 40. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are in the top 20 in RPI but are further down in the conference standings. Odds are that whoever gets hottest among the Razorbacks, Rebels and Bulldogs down the stretch will claim a fourth hosting spot for the SEC.

Those disparities among RPI and conference standings, not to mention the human polls, could make this one of the more interesting NCAA tournament selection days in recent years. Which criteria will the committee emphasize? Let's look at two examples:

1. West Virginia: The Mountaineers are 30-22 overall and tied for second in the Big 12, which is the fourth-ranked conference in RPI. But despite having a winning record against the RPI top 100, West Virginia is barely in the RPI top 100 itself.

2. Maryland: The Terrapins are in the top 30 in RPI and have played more than half of their games against the RPI top 50. But they have limped to a 7-20 record in those games and are ninth in the ACC after losing eight of nine conference series.

Last year, the pendulum swung toward conference standing over RPI, especially for schools from non-power conferences. Given the similar composition of the selection committee this year, these projections followed that formula.

That could lead to some traditional powers being left out when the field is announced. Oklahoma is tied for second in the Big 12, so it should be able to overcome an RPI that's barely in the top 50. But Rice could miss the tournament for the first time since 1994, and even Miami isn't safe after slipping to eighth in the ACC late in the season.

But the biggest surprises could be in the Pac-12. The conference is third in RPI, but most of the heavy lifting has been done by the top four teams -- Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State. Stanford and defending national champion Arizona are in fifth and sixth, respectively, but both are outside the top 75 in RPI. The Wildcats are likely to be the first defending champion to miss the NCAA tournament since Oregon State in 2008 after the Beavers won back-to-back titles.

Here are my projections, as of May 14:

Nashville Regional No. 1 Vanderbilt Virginia Tech Austin Peay Columbia	Louisville Regional    Louisville    Oklahoma    Ohio State    Kent State
Tallahassee Regional No. 8 Florida State Florida Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman	Mobile Regional    South Alabama    Mississippi State    Rice    Alabama State
Charlottesville Regional No. 5 Virginia UNC Wilmington William & Mary Pittsburgh	Bloomington Regional    Indiana    Ole Miss    Notre Dame    Milwaukee
Corvallis Regional No. 4 Oregon State Oklahoma State New Mexico South Dakota State	Clemson Regional    Clemson    Mercer    Alabama    Maine
Chapel Hill Regional No. 2 North Carolina Coastal Carolina West Virginia Western Carolina	Columbia Regional     South Carolina    Georgia Tech    Seton Hall    Rider
Eugene Regional No. 7 Oregon Cal Poly Auburn Gonzaga	Raleigh Regional    North Carolina State    Campbell    Troy    Holy Cross
Fullerton Regional No. 6 Cal State Fullerton Arizona State San Diego Saint Louis	Los Angeles Regional    UCLA    Miami    UC Irvine    Cal State Bakersfield
Baton Rouge Regional No. 3 LSU Louisiana-Lafayette Sam Houston State Bryant	Manhattan Regional    Kansas State    Arkansas    Illinois    Creighton

Last five in: Auburn, Ohio State, William & Mary, Illinois, West Virginia

First nine out: Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland, North Florida, Michigan State, Houston, UC Santa Barbara, San Francisco, Stanford

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

Overview: Arizona won its fourth national title and first since 1986 with a 4-1 victory over South Carolina to sweep the best-of-three championship series at the College World Series. The Wildcats rode the right arm of James Farris, who had not pitched since June 3 in the regional title game, a 16-3 Arizona win over Louisville. Farris allowed one run on two hits in 7 2/3 innings to extend the Wildcats' run of strong starting pitching performances. In 10 postseason games -- all victories -- every Arizona starter pitched into the eighth inning. The Wildcats scored in the top of the third and added three runs in the ninth, the game winner on Brandon Dixon's one-out double. Freshman reliever Mathew Troupe worked out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the bottom of the ninth to clinch it.

How the game was won: Dixon, a sophomore who entered for Joseph Maggi as a defensive replacement in the sixth inning, lined a 1-1 pitch from South Carolina closer Matt Price just inside third base to the left-field corner to score Robert Refsnyder from second base. Refsnyder had singled off Price, the career CWS leader with five victories, to open the ninth. Refsnyder moved into scoring position on Seth Mejias-Brean's sacrifice before the clutch hit from Dixon. Trent Gilbert then delivered a two-out single to right field to score Bobby Brown and Dixon.

Turning point: The Gamecocks stole momentum from Arizona in the bottom of the seventh inning, tying the game at 1 on Kyle Martin's RBI groundout to score Christian Walker. Two defensive lapses from the Wildcats aided South Carolina's lone run. Farris then hit Grayson Greiner to open the eighth. After a fielder's choice grounder, Chase Vergason stole second and took third base on a throwing error by catcher Riley Moore. Carolina looked ready to pounce, knocking Farris from the game. But Troupe got a called third strike on a full-count pitch to Joey Pankake. It ended the Gamecocks' threat and returned the edge to Arizona, setting the stage for its big top of the ninth.

Star player: Arizona used a simple formula of superb starting pitching to roll through an undefeated postseason. Farris kept up his end of the deal Monday. The sophomore from Gilbert, Ariz., struck out four and held the Gamecocks hitless until LB Dantzler's two-out single in the fourth inning. No Gamecock reached second base until the seventh. Even then, with Walker at third with one out, Farris got a bouncer from Martin to Dixon at first base. Dixon likely could have nailed Walker at the plate but looked toward second base, then took the sure out at first. Farris escaped the inning and kept the score tied by getting Tanner English on a fly ball to center field.

Editor's note: The 2012 NCAA baseball tournament bracket will be unveiled on Monday, May 28 at noon ET on ESPNU.

The regional sites have been announced, and all 30 automatic bids have been claimed. With only two regional hosts among the automatic bids, that means 44 of the 64 tournament teams have been determined.

Which 20 schools will join them when the field is announced?

The committee seemed to tip its hand by selecting Miami (Coral Gables) over Kentucky (Lexington) as a regional host. Miami had two major advantages over Kentucky -- a higher RPI and much better nonconference strength of schedule. Last year, the rationale for excluding LSU from the tournament was that the Tigers didn't challenge themselves enough in nonconference play. That was reinforced by this decision, which could provide some insight into the composition of the final bracket.

That could also open up the race for the final national seed. South Carolina is the most vulnerable of the potential national seeds -- its RPI is outside the top 10, and the Gamecocks don't have a conference title to hang their hats on. According to the Boyd's World website, Purdue has quietly climbed into the top 10 in the RPI following its Big Ten tournament title. The Boilermakers also have a gaudy 22-8 record in true road games and a 30-9 record away from home. That, combined with Purdue's northern location, might be enough to land it in the top eight.

There's also the chance for some movement among the Pac-12 hosts. Oregon was swept in its final series at Oregon State, which cost the Ducks a shot at the regular-season league title and possibly a national seed. Arizona claimed a share of the conference title, losing the automatic bid to UCLA based on the teams' head-to-head series. Oregon won the head-to-head series against Arizona and has a better overall résumé, which should keep the Ducks ahead in the national seed chase.

Los Angeles Regional No. 1 UCLA Cal State Fullerton Missouri State Army	Raleigh Regional    NC State    Vanderbilt    East Carolina    Dayton
Gary Regional No. 8 Purdue Kentucky Indiana State Valparaiso	Palo Alto Regional    Stanford    Pepperdine    Missouri    Fresno State
Waco Regional No. 5 Baylor TCU Texas-Arlington Oral Roberts	Houston Regional    Rice    Oklahoma    Michigan State    Cornell
Baton Rouge Regional No. 4 LSU Louisville Southeastern Louisiana Louisiana-Monroe	College Station Regional    Texas A&M    Dallas Baptist    Sam Houston State    Prairie View
Gainesville Regional No. 2 Florida Georgia Tech Belmont Bethune-Cookman	Coral Gables Regional    Miami    UCF    Ole Miss    Kent State
Eugene Regional No. 7 Oregon Arkansas New Mexico Sacred Heart	Charlottesville Regional    Virginia    Oregon State    St. John's    Manhattan
Chapel Hill Regional No. 6 North Carolina Coastal Carolina UNC Wilmington Stony Brook	Columbia Regional    South Carolina    Clemson    Appalachian State    Austin Peay
Tallahassee Regional No. 3 Florida State Mississippi State Samford UAB	Tucson Regional    Arizona    San Diego    New Mexico State    Creighton

Last five in: Sam Houston State, Indiana State, New Mexico State, East Carolina, Michigan State

First nine out: Wake Forest, Texas, Wichita State, Maryland, Utah Valley, Tulane, Georgia, Gonzaga, College of Charleston

Based on the rationale the committee apparently used for choosing Coral Gables over Lexington as a regional hosting site, the advantage for the final team in the field goes to a northern team with a top 50 RPI over an ACC team with a top 40 RPI. Michigan State has a 16-8 record on the road and a winning record over the top 100 in RPI. Wake Forest was below .500 against top 100 opponents -- though it did play twice as many games against those teams as the Spartans -- and was just 7-17 on the road.

Texas' at-large hopes may fall victim to Missouri winning the Big 12's automatic bid and the perception that this was a down year for the conference. After finishing in the top two in the nation in ERA the past three years, the Longhorns' pitching staff is outside the top 50 this season. If the Longhorns don't receive an at-large bid, they'll miss the tournament for the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999.

Tulane and Wichita State are also hurt by long shot teams winning their conference tournaments. Conference USA's automatic bid was won by UAB, which finished seventh in the regular season. In the Missouri Valley Conference, last-place Creighton took the title home. There isn't enough room for a fifth C-USA team or a fourth MVC team, so the bubble has seemingly burst for the Green Wave and Shockers.

The most intriguing decision when the bracket is announced will be whether Utah Valley is included in the field of 64. The Wolverines are 20-10 on the road and have wins against Arizona and Arizona State. However, only seven of their 47 wins are against teams in the RPI top 200. Their résumé looks very similar to Stony Brook, which took the America East automatic bid but only played three games against the RPI top 100 (and was swept at East Carolina). Will a 32-game winning streak be enough to get Utah Valley into a regional without an automatic bid for the Great West?

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

Editor's note: The 2012 NCAA baseball tournament bracket will be unveiled on Monday, May 28 at noon ET on ESPNU.

As most schools head into conference tournaments, there isn't much time left to impress the selection committee. What's at stake over the last week of the regular season for at-large and top-seed contenders?

ACC tournament (Greensboro, N.C., May 23-27): Two teams from the conference are likely to earn national seeds. Florida State is a lock, and North Carolina has the inside track over NC State based on its overall résumé, though a Wolfpack run to the title game could shift the balance. Those three are all locks to host regionals and will likely be joined by Virginia. Though it's unlikely to happen, the Cavaliers could be overtaken by a fifth SEC team or UCF when hosts are announced, especially with a subpar performance in Greensboro.

Miami and Clemson are safely in the NCAA tournament. Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are on the right side of the bubble, but either could fall off with an 0-3 week and upsets elsewhere. Maryland and Virginia Tech have strong overall bodies of work, but without a chance to impress in the ACC tournament, they're likely to meet the same fate as LSU last year and be left sitting at home in June.

Big 12 (Oklahoma City, May 23-27): Baylor lost four of its last six conference games after starting 18-0 in Big 12 play, but is still a slam dunk as a national seed. Texas A&M is a lock to host, and a conference tournament title could get it into the national seed discussion. Oklahoma's late surge, especially the sweep against Baylor, has the Sooners pretty safely off the bubble. Texas is an interesting case after finishing third in the conference but with a weaker RPI than the Sooners. The Longhorns should be in, but a couple of wins in Oklahoma City would make it easier to sleep.

Big East (Clearwater, Fla., May 23-27): Louisville won a share of the regular-season title and has an RPI that places it firmly on the right side of the bubble. St John's was the co-champion, but lost the season series to the Cardinals. The Red Storm are in much the same position as last year when they received an unexpected NCAA tournament bid. A few wins in Clearwater would make them breathe easier on selection day on Monday. The only route for the other six teams in the tournament is to win the automatic bid.

Big South (High Point, N.C., May 22-26): Regular-season champion Coastal Carolina has a regional invite wrapped up. The rest of the conference is looking to burst someone else's bubble by taking the conference tournament.

Big Ten (Columbus, Ohio, May 23-26): Even after dropping its final series of the year against Iowa, Purdue is safely in the field and still a likely host. A quick exit from the Big Ten tournament might mean the Boilermakers are hosting as a No. 2 seed, though. Michigan State's at-large status depends on the committee; if it emphasizes road record and other factors over RPI for northern teams, as it did last year, the Spartans have a good chance to make the field. The rest of the field in Columbus needs to win the automatic bid to keep playing.

Big West: There is no conference tournament in the Big West, but the top two teams meet in the final series of the year. Cal State Fullerton travels to Long Beach State, with the winner of the series claiming the automatic bid. The Titans took two of three in a nonconference series earlier in the year. Fullerton needs to win the title to host a regional, but even then could be squeezed out by a fourth Pac-12 team.

Colonial (Harrisonburg, Va., May 23-26): UNC Wilmington should be playing in June regardless of how it plays at the conference tournament. The other five teams need to win the automatic bid to keep their season alive.

Conference USA (Pearl, Miss., May 23-27): Rice and UCF are safely in the NCAA tournament. With a tournament title to go with its regular-season crown, Rice could be in the discussion for a national seed. UCF is in the mix to host a regional, especially with a solid run in Pearl. East Carolina finished sixth in the conference, but unless the Pirates go 0-3, their RPI should land them a regional spot. Tulane needs a solid tournament run, and even that might not be enough if there are lots of upsets elsewhere.

Great West (Orem, Utah, May 22-26): Utah Valley saw its winning streak come to an end at 32 games, but finished 28-0 in conference and should breeze through the conference tournament at home. Their inclusion in the projections this week is more an indication of how weak the bubble is -- they'll be the first team knocked out of at-large consideration when a lower seed from a mid-major conference steals a bid.

Missouri Valley (Springfield, Mo., May 22-26): Indiana State won the regular-season title but has the worst RPI of the top three teams. Missouri State won the season series against the Sycamores and has the best RPI in the league. That should ensure two bids for the league. Wichita State and Illinois State are both in the at-large discussion with solid RPI numbers, and the Shockers' overall body of work might be good enough to land a third bid, especially with a strong tournament showing. Illinois State and the other four teams in the conference need to win the tournament title.

Mountain West (Las Vegas, May 24-27): New Mexico and TCU finished the season tied for first and split six regular-season meetings. TCU is in a regional regardless of how it does at the MWC tournament but the Lobos likely need to win in Las Vegas, or at the very least make the title game. They are in as the auto bid this week, and would be vulnerable to upsets elsewhere without it.

Pac-12: One of three conferences with no tournament, the title comes down to the final weekend. Oregon leads Arizona by a game, with UCLA and Stanford lurking just behind them. None of the four play each other in the final weekend, as the slate wraps up with each team playing its natural rival. The Ducks (league leader) and Bruins (top RPI in the nation) are best positioned for national seeds. Along with those two, Stanford is pretty secure as a regional host heading into the final series. Arizona, which is battling Cal State Fullerton among possible hosting locations, finishes with a home series against Arizona State. Oregon State is safely in the tournament, while Washington has gone 1-6 over the past two weeks and needs to bounce back against Seattle and Washington State to stay on the right side of the bubble.

SEC (Hoover, Ala., May 22-27): LSU (regular-season title) and Florida (best RPI in the best conference) should be national seeds even if they go two-and-out. South Carolina could use a couple of wins to wrap up a national seed, depending on results elsewhere. Kentucky, Arkansas and Mississippi State are playing to host regionals. The Wildcats are in the best position, but a late slide has made them vulnerable. Ole Miss is safely in the NCAA tournament, and Vanderbilt should be in unless there are numerous mid-major upsets. At this point, it looks like only a trip to the title game would get Auburn or Georgia into a regional if the committee uses the same emphasis as last season.

Southern (Greenville, S.C., May 23-27): Regular-season co-champions Appalachian State and College of Charleston can breathe easy -- both should hear their names called on selection day whatever happens the final week. Elon and Samford are both on the wrong side of the bubble; a run to the title game would help, but a tournament title and auto-bid is the only way either would be truly safe.

Southland (San Marcos, Texas, May 23-26): If the past is any indication, nobody is safe at the Southland Conference tournament. Sam Houston State won the regular-season title by four games and has an RPI in the top 50, but teams with similar résumés have missed out after going 0-2 in the Southland tournament, leaving the Bearkats in a safe position but with work still to do. Southeastern Louisiana has just as good a résumé but no regular-season title, so a few wins in San Marcos would help. Tournament host Texas State is still in the discussion and a run to the title game could net it an at-large bid.

West Coast: Like the Big West, the WCC doesn't have a conference tournament. Also like the Big West, the schedule-makers got it right. Pepperdine and San Diego head into the final weekend tied atop the standings, with the Toreros traveling to Malibu, Calif., to take on the Waves. Both teams should be safe on selection day regardless of who wins the series. Gonzaga has played its way out of the field over the past month, and even a season-ending sweep of BYU is likely to be enough to get them on the right side of the bubble.

Tallahassee Regional No. 1 Florida State UCF Ole Miss Bethune-Cookman	Palo Alto Regional    Stanford    Pepperdine    Vanderbilt    Saint Louis
Columbia Regional No. 8 South Carolina Clemson College of Charleston Mercer	Raleigh Regional    NC State    Appalachian State    East Carolina    Stony Brook
Gainesville Regional No. 5 Florida Miami Michigan State Florida Atlantic	Tucson Regional    Arizona    San Diego    New Mexico State    Utah Valley State
LSU Regional No. 4 LSU Dallas Baptist Tulane Kent State	College Station Regional    Texas A&M    Arkansas    Sam Houston State    Prairie View
Eugene Regional No. 2 Oregon Missouri State Oklahoma New Mexico	Charlottesville Regional    Virginia    Oregon State    St. John's    Manhattan
Chapel Hill Regional No. 7 North Carolina Coastal Carolina UNC Wilmington Sacred Heart	Lexington Regional    Kentucky    Louisville    Wake Forest    Austin Peay
Los Angeles Regional No. 6 UCLA Cal State Fullerton Georgia Tech Army	Gary Regional    Purdue    Mississippi State    Indiana State    Valparaiso
Waco Regional No. 3 Baylor TCU Washington Oral Roberts	Houston Regional    Rice    Texas    Southeastern Louisiana    Cornell

Last five in: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Washington, Tulane, Utah Valley

First nine out: Maryland, Georgia, Wichita State, Elon, Samford, Texas State, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Gonzaga

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

There are some changes in seeding but no changes among the eight teams earning national seeds this week. This weekend's results could be end up being the perfect storm that ends in four national seeds for the SEC.

Kentucky moved back into first place in the SEC with its sweep of last-place Alabama, but despite head-to-head series wins over South Carolina and LSU, the Wildcats have the weakest overall résumé of the four national seed contenders in the SEC due to a weaker nonconference schedule. Kentucky has 15 wins against the bottom 100 in RPI; none of the projected national seeds have more than five against the same RPI range.

Despite its gaudy record, Baylor has the weakest overall résumé of the top eight national seeds. The Bears have the fewest wins against the RPI top 50 among contenders, posting a 9-7 record so far with a regular-season series remaining against Texas. In their favor, they clinched the Big 12 regular-season title with two weeks left and are 16-1 against teams ranked 51-100 in RPI.

Besides Kentucky, which other teams could play their way into a national seed over the final two weeks of the season? NC State finishes the regular season against Florida State; a recent 12-game winning streak has the Wolfpack just outside the RPI top 10. Rice plays for the regular-season C-USA crown at UCF this weekend, and capturing both the regular-season and tournament title would give the Owls a shot. In the Pac-12, Arizona could get a national seed with a conference title, while Stanford has the RPI to compete for one. With a Big West title, Cal State Fullerton will be in the conversation even with an RPI outside the top 10 (see UC Irvine in 2009).

With a 21-8 record against the top 100 in RPI and 20-6 record on the road, don't count out Purdue, whose schedule isn't as weak as most people think. To prove that point, consider these blind résumés:

There's not a whole lot to separate the teams. Team C is the best against the RPI top 50 but has only one game against RPI 51-100. Teams A and B are similar against the Top 100, with Team A having a few more opportunities. Team B trails by a bit in both RPI categories but has done most of its damage away from home (6-1 in neutral site games in addition to 26 true road games).

Team A is Big 12 leader and current national seed Baylor. Team B is Purdue. Team C is SEC leader Kentucky.

Elsewhere, there's one shift in hosting responsibilities this week to keep with the likely result of four teams hosting from the West Coast. Regionals in Los Angeles and Eugene, Ore., seem to be secure. That leaves Arizona, Cal State Fullerton and Stanford jostling for the final two home spots. Fullerton gets the nod as a probable conference champion. In the Pac-12, Arizona is one game out of first place and won the season series against fourth-place Stanford. That trumps the Cardinal's better RPI and lands a regional in Tucson.

Tallahassee Regional No. 1 Florida State UCF Mississippi State Bethune-Cookman	Tucson Regional    Arizona    Clemson    New Mexico State    Utah Valley
Baton Rouge Regional No. 8 LSU Georgia Tech Tulane Southern	College Station Regional    Texas A&M    Arkansas    Southeastern Louisiana    Manhattan
Gainesville Regional No. 5 Florida Miami Washington Florida Atlantic	Charlottesville Regional    Virginia    Oregon State    St. John's    Kent State
Waco Regional No. 4 Baylor TCU Sam Houston State Oral Roberts	Houston Regional    Rice    Dallas Baptist    Texas    Cornell
Eugene Regional No. 2 Oregon Ole Miss Michigan State Saint Louis	Gary Regional    Purdue    Indiana State    Oklahoma    Wright State
Chapel Hill Regional No. 7 North Carolina Appalachian State East Carolina UNC Wilmington	Lexington Regional    Kentucky    Louisville    Virginia Tech    Austin Peay
Los Angeles Regional No. 6 UCLA San Diego Missouri State Army	Fullerton Regional    Cal State Fullerton    Stanford    Pepperdine    Stony Brook
Columbia Regional No. 3 South Carolina Coastal Carolina Elon South Carolina-Upstate	Raleigh Regional    NC State    Georgia    College of Charleston    Monmouth

Last five in: Southeastern Louisiana, Washington, Oklahoma, Tulane, Utah Valley

First nine out: Maryland, Long Beach State, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Auburn, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Stetson, Gonzaga

While there weren't many changes at the top of the bracket, it was a wild week on the bubble.

Auburn and Vanderbilt both won road series against teams in the RPI top 20, clinching spots in the SEC tournament and bolstering their résumés. Vanderbilt got its record above .500 for the first time this season, a requirement for an at-large bid. With a home series against Ole Miss remaining plus the SEC tournament, the Commodores' overall strength of schedule should get them into the NCAA tournament if they can stay above .500. Auburn is outside the RPI top 50, but a good two weeks against Florida and at the SEC tournament could land the SEC 10 bids.

The ACC also has a case for 10 bids this year. Maryland and Wake Forest are currently on the outside looking in despite top-40 RPIs and double-digit wins over the RPI top 50. History favors the eight teams that make the ACC tournament, but it is possible that at least one team that misses out on the conference tournament in Greensboro, N.C., could make a regional.

It's usually better to remain unemotional when crafting a bracket, especially since the goal is to predict what the committee will do rather than what I would like to see. I bent that rule this week and included Utah Valley as the final at-large team. I'm still not sure they'll be able to overcome playing only 13 games against the RPI top 100 and playing in a conference without an automatic bid, but it has a chance based on two assumptions: First, the Wolverines need to win their final nine games and finish the season on a Division I record 41-game winning streak. They also need help on the bubble, most notably by avoiding bid stealers from what would otherwise be one-bid leagues. So while Utah Valley hosts the Great West tournament, it will also be pulling for teams such as Coastal Carolina, New Mexico State and TCU to win their conference championships.

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

Conference races are entering the home stretch, so let's take a look at the leagues currently projected to send a single team to the NCAA tournament.

Four teams are within three games of the top spot in the Atlantic Sun. Belmont started the season hot, but lost its last three conference series. Stetson has the best RPI, and a chance for an at-large bid, but hasn't beaten a Top-50 RPI team. South Carolina-Upstate is in first, with a chance to earn a regional bid in its first year of Division I eligibility.

A recent eight-game win streak by Coastal Carolina elevated the Chanticleers to their normal spot atop the conference. Campbell, Liberty and Radford all have RPIs in the top 100, but their overall résumés suggest they need to win the conference tournament to steal a bid.

The most surprising name on the single-bid conference list is the Big West. If current leader Cal State Fullerton wins the conference, then the Big West could earn a single bid. The Big West has sent just two teams to regionals the past two years after sending four in 2007 and 2008. Long Beach State and UC Irvine are both on the wrong side of the bubble; Irvine lost its series against Fullerton, while the Dirtbags finish the season hosting the Titans.

UNC Wilmington has a three-game lead in the Colonial and hasn't lost a conference series all season. The conference tournament is at defending champion James Madison, but at this point the Dukes wouldn't even qualify for the six-team field.

As a newly formed conference, the Great West does not receive an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. That means that Utah Valley and its current 28-game winning streak might not even make the field of 64. The Wolverines have moved into at-large consideration, but with 27 of their 35 wins (and eight of their remaining nine games) against teams in the bottom 100 of RPI, it's still a long shot.

Valparaiso took two out of three games over the weekend at Wright State to hand the Raiders their first conference series loss and tie the Raiders atop the standings. The next closest team is 4½ games back.

Cornell got a walk-off 11th-inning home run from Chris Cruz to beat Dartmouth and reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1977. The Big Red have a school-record 31 wins this season.

The race for the top of the MAAC is muddled, with four teams within three games of the top of the standings. Only two teams -- Canisius and Marist -- have overall records above .500. Marist is currently in third place, but has won the season series against two of the other top four teams and hosts Canisius next weekend.

Kent State leads the Eastern Division of the MAC by six games, and leads Western Division leader Toledo by five games. Barring an upset in the conference tournament, the Golden Flashes are well on the way to their fourth straight regional.

With the MEAC separating into divisions this year, it's harder to determine the best team in the league. Delaware State is 33-14 and has won 15 straight games to lead the North, while Bethune-Cookman is in control in the South. Cookman was just swept in a nonconference series at Miami, with two of the losses by a single run. The conference tournament in Norfolk will show whether or not the South is still the dominant half of the league.

TCU and New Mexico are tied at the top of the Mountain West standings, and each won two of three games at home against the other. However, the Lobos struggled in nonconference play and are outside the RPI range normally considered for an at-large spot. TCU is secure as an at-large, so the MWC will get multiple bids if another team wins the tournament.

The regular-season race is tight between Bryant and Monmouth, who split their series in New Jersey earlier this year. Fortunately for the rest of the league, Bryant isn't eligible for the postseason yet after moving up to Division I. With one weekend left in conference play, only Monmouth has clinched a spot in the conference tournament; with ace Pat Light, it has the inside track to a regional.

The race for the Ohio Valley title is one of the tightest in the country. Defending champion Austin Peay leads Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State by half a game, with Eastern Illinois only two games back. For now, the bid goes to Jacksonville State, which won series at Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky and hosts Eastern Illinois to finish the season.

The Patriot League playoffs begin this weekend, with regular-season champion Army hosting Lafayette and Holy Cross hosting Navy. The winners of those best-of-three series meet in the best-of-three championship series the following weekend. Army is 37-12 this season and lost only two conference games in the regular season. Those two losses were to second-place Holy Cross in the last weekend of regular-season play.

After years of Oral Roberts running away with the conference, the Summit League standings are tight with two weeks left in the season. Oral Roberts and Oakland split their series and are tied atop the standings. North Dakota State is 35-13 overall and half a game back in the standings but has yet to play the top two. Oral Roberts hosts the conference tournament, which gives it a leg up.

Like the Big West, it's surprising to see the Sun Belt on the single-bid list. The conference has sent three teams to regionals the past two seasons. This year, Florida Atlantic is the only team in the RPI Top 100, and only the tournament champion is likely to keep playing. Arkansas State and Florida International round out the top three in the standings.

With the regular season complete in the SWAC, Jackson State and Southern are the division champions. While the teams didn't meet in conference play, Southern swept a home-and-home series in late April and hosts the conference tournament.

Tallahassee Regional No. 1 Florida State UCF Mississippi State Bethune-Cookman	Palo Alto Regional    Stanford    New Mexico State    Georgia Tech    Cornell
Los Angeles Regional No. 8 UCLA San Diego Virginia Tech Army	Fullerton Regional    Cal State Fullerton    Arizona    Pepperdine    Rhode Island
Chapel Hill Regional No. 5 North Carolina Coastal Carolina East Carolina UNC Wilmington	Lexington Regional    Kentucky    Louisville    Michigan State    Kent State
Eugene Regional No. 4 Oregon Ole Miss Gonzaga Hawaii	Charlottesville Regional    Virginia    Appalachian State    St. John's    Monmouth
Baton Rouge Regional No. 2 LSU Missouri State Tulane Southern	College Station Regional     Texas A&M    Arkansas    Southeastern Louisiana    Jacksonville State
Gainesville Regional No. 7 Florida Miami Washington Florida Atlantic	Gary Regional    Purdue    Oregon State    Indiana State    Wright State
Columbia Regional No. 6 South Carolina Clemson Elon USC-Upstate	Raleigh Regional    NC State    College of Charleston    Georgia    Marist
Waco Regional No. 3 Baylor Dallas Baptist Sam Houston State Oral Roberts	Houston Regional    Rice    TCU    Texas    Stony Brook

Last five in: Indiana State, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Tulane, Elon

First nine out: Maryland, Long Beach State, Wichita State, Auburn, Wake Forest, Utah Valley, Texas State, Stetson, Oklahoma State

There are two changes in national seeds and one change in hosts over the weekend.

South Carolina took over first place in the SEC East with a series win at Arkansas while Florida took two out of three at Kentucky. Based on conference standing and recent play, the Gamecocks join LSU and Florida as a national seed, knocking Kentucky down to a non-national No. 1 seed.

A week after taking two of three games at UCLA, Stanford loses two out of three games at Oregon State. Meanwhile in Westwood, the Bruins took two out of three from a Purdue team that is in the top 10 in RPI. Bump UCLA ahead of Stanford in the race for a national seed.

It continues to appear that there will be four regionals in the west. With Oregon, UCLA and Stanford seemingly safe, the fight for the last hosting spot is between Arizona and Cal State Fullerton. This weekend, Fullerton swept last-place Pacific to move into first place in the Big West while Arizona lost two of three at home to national seed Oregon. With similar résumés, the advantage goes to the team leading its conference. As an added benefit, that makes scheduling super regionals easier for the NCAA, since a Fullerton regional can be paired with a Los Angeles regional to minimize travel costs.

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

The ACC, Pac-12 and SEC continue to dominate the national landscape. With around 60 percent of the at-large bids likely to come from those three conferences, let's breakdown the pecking order for Selection Monday.

ACC
Sitting atop the polls and RPI, Florida State is pretty much a slam dunk for a national seed. North Carolina leads the Coastal Division and is in the top 10 in RPI -- a safe spot for hosting consideration as well as a contender for a national seed. NC State, Virginia and Miami are all in the top 20 in the RPI and in the top half of the conference, but the Hurricanes have struggled in eight games without catcher Peter O'Brien. As such, Raleigh, N.C., and Charlottesville, Va., land regionals, while Miami travels in the opening round.

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland all have similar résumés and RPIs in the 30s. In similar situations in the past, the key has been making it to the conference tournament. At this point, Wake Forest and Maryland are on the outside looking in. Both could play their way into the conference tournament but face tough finishing stretches. The Demon Deacons travel to Miami and host Clemson, while the Terrapins travel to Florida State and host Virginia. For now, those are the two teams excluded from the field.

SEC
Four teams in the top 10 in RPI land the SEC at the top of the national stage once again. And since Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina and Florida meet in conference play, the argument will be decided on the field. Four of the six series between contenders have already happened, with Florida traveling to Kentucky this weekend and LSU finishing the season at South Carolina. In head-to-head meetings, Kentucky beat LSU and South Carolina; LSU beat Florida; and Florida beat South Carolina. The Gators' series losses to Arkansas and Ole Miss complicate the situation somewhat, since they are two games behind South Carolina in the SEC East, but for now the Gamecocks are the odd team out of the national seed hunt. If Florida loses the series in Lexington or the Gamecocks beat LSU to close the season, the roles likely reverse.

After struggling in the middle of conference play, Arkansas played its way back into hosting contention with a series win at Florida. The Razorbacks, as well as future SEC member Texas A&M, are likely battling for a hosting spot. Magnolia State rivals Mississippi State and Ole Miss are securely in the field with top 30 RPI rankings, as long as they make the SEC tournament. The SEC bubble includes the three teams likely to make it to Hoover, Ala., that are ranked in the 40s in the RPI -- Auburn, Georgia and Vanderbilt. The Commodores are currently under .500 overall and are excluded from the field. Auburn's sixth-place standing in the SEC earns it the final bid over Georgia, but the Bulldogs could turn the tables with a home series against the Tigers this weekend.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is trickier for seeding purposes based on the disparity between RPI and conference standing/head-to-head results. In the past, the NCAA has placed a greater emphasis on conference standing when seeding the western teams -- just look back to last year, when conference champion UCLA was a somewhat surprising host and No. 1 seed. Additionally, UC Irvine was a national seed in 2009 with an RPI barely in the top 20 after winning the Big West. If the past is any indication, there could be more surprises this year.

Oregon sports an RPI outside the top 15 but sits atop the conference and has won head-to-head series against UCLA and Stanford, both of which are in the top 10 in RPI. That puts the Ducks on the inside track for a national seed. The conference is likely to get a second national seed from either of its RPI big boys, UCLA or Stanford. For now, Stanford's head-to-head series victory earns the Cardinal the spot over the Bruins. UCLA is a near-lock for a regional, while Arizona matches up favorably with Big West stalwart Cal State Fullerton for a fourth regional out west.

Things get more complicated once you get outside the top four in the conference, and the culprit, as usual, is the RPI. Oregon State is the only other Pac-12 team with a top 30 RPI, so the Beavers are easily in. With Arizona State ineligible for the postseason, two more bids are likely to come from the bottom half of the conference. Washington and USC have better RPI numbers, while Washington State and California languish in the 70s. California is on the outside looking in with the worst résumé and a tough finishing stretch. The other three résumés are nearly identical, though Washington State has a chance to play its way in with upcoming series against Cal and Washington. But for now, the RPI keeps the Cougars out of the field while Washington and USC grab the final two Pac-12 spots.

Tallahassee Regional No. 1 Florida State UCF Auburn Bethune-Cookman	Tucson Regional    Arizona    New Mexico State    Georgia Tech    New Mexico
Eugene Regional No. 8 Oregon Ole Miss Gonzaga North Dakota State	Gary Regional    Purdue    Oregon State    Indiana State    Wright State
Palo Alto Regional No. 5 Stanford Cal State Fullerton Pepperdine Cornell	Raleigh Regional    NC State    East Carolina    Mississippi State    Jacksonville State
Chapel Hill Regional No. 4 North Carolina Coastal Carolina Washington Kent State	Columbia Regional    South Carolina    Clemson    UNC-Wilmington    USC-Upstate
Waco Regional No. 2 Baylor Sam Houston State Dallas Baptist Stony Brook	Houston Regional     Rice    TCU    Texas    Monmouth
Gainesville Regional No. 7 Florida Miami Missouri State Florida Atlantic	Los Angeles Regional    UCLA    San Diego    Long Beach State    Army
Baton Rouge Regional No. 6 LSU Appalachian State Southeastern Louisiana Southern	College Station Regional    Texas A&M    Arkansas    USC    Manhattan
Lexington Regional No. 3 Kentucky Louisville Virginia Tech Rhode Island	Charlotteville Regional    Virginia    College of Charleston    Michigan State    St. John's

Last five in: Virginia Tech, Southeastern Louisiana, Indiana State, USC, Gonzaga

First nine out: Wake Forest, Georgia, Washington State, Elon, Maryland, Oklahoma, Texas State, Wichita State, Stetson

Two conferences finished regular-season action this past weekend and will determine their champions before the rush of conference tournaments in the final week of May.

Dartmouth and Cornell will play a best-of-three series this weekend in Ithaca, N.Y., to determine the Ivy League champion. The Big Red won the two regular-season meetings between the schools, including a no-hitter by Connor Kaufmann in the opener.

The Patriot League takes a week off before the conference tournament gets underway, with regular-season champion Army hosting Lafayette and runner-up Holy Cross hosting Navy in best-of-three semifinal series. The Black Knights finished conference play with an 18-2 record, with both losses coming at Holy Cross in the final weekend.

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

With just over a month until the regional field is selected, it's time to start dissecting how the field might look in June.

With the conference races taking shape, the national seed picture is becoming clearer. Kentucky has the chance to earn the top overall seed in baseball to go along with its basketball championship. The rest of the top five in RPI -- Florida, Florida State, Baylor and UCLA -- are also well on their way to national seeds.

The SEC could become the first conference to earn four national seeds in one season. After tying the record with three national seeds last year, the SEC has four teams in the conversation this year. Baylor running away with the Big 12 and Florida State doing the same in the ACC increases the chances that each of those conferences will have only one national seed. After losing its series against Florida and Kentucky, South Carolina can help its cause with a series win against LSU to wrap up the regular season.

The wild card in the national seed discussion is Purdue. The Boilermakers are in the top 10 in RPI and No. 13 in the coaches' poll with a 31-6 record. However, Lambert Field in West Lafayette, Ind., doesn't have lights and though Purdue has a new stadium under construction it won't be completed by June. The NCAA would love to have a regional in the Midwest, so if Purdue can find an adequate facility it will likely earn at least one round at home.

The race for hosting spots out west is as contentious as always, even with Arizona State ineligible for the postseason this year. The most likely outcome is that Cal State Fullerton joins three Pac-12 teams as regional hosts. That means that one team out of Arizona, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford will be sent on the road. Stanford has the most work to do, as the Cardinal were swept by Arizona and lost a series to Oregon and currently sit tied for fourth in the Pac-12.

Lexington Regional No. 1 Kentucky Louisville Michigan State Wright State	Raleigh Regional    NC State    East Carolina    Appalachian State    Coastal Carolina
Gary Regional No. 8 Purdue Ole Miss Indiana State Kent State	Tucson Regional    Arizona    New Mexico State    Oklahoma    North Dakota State
Baton Rouge Regional No. 5 LSU Oregon State Southeastern Louisiana Southern	College Station Regional    Texas A&M    Sam Houston State    Washington    Stony Brook
Los Angeles Regional No. 4 UCLA San Diego Wake Forest Army	Fullerton Regional    Cal State Fullerton    Stanford    Pepperdine    Rhode Island
Gainesville Regional No. 6 Florida Virginia Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman	Orlando Regional     UCF    Miami    USC    South Florida
Waco Regional No. 3 Baylor Dallas Baptist TCU Monmouth	Houston Regional    Rice    Texas    Cal    Cornell
Chapel Hill Regional No. 7 North Carolina College of Charleston Georgia UNC Wilmington	Columbia Regional    South Carolina    Clemson    Elon    USC-Upstate
Tallahassee Regional No. 2 Florida State Missouri State Mississippi State Austin Peay	Eugene Regional    Oregon    Arkansas    Gonzaga    Manhattan

Last five in: Gonzaga, Washington, USC, Indiana State, Michigan State

First nine out: Georgia Tech, Liberty, Auburn, Maryland, Texas State, Tennessee, St. John's, Southern Miss, Stetson

It's been a crazy year, especially in three of the traditional power conferences. The Big 12, Big West and Conference USA are all having down years. If the field were chosen based on accomplishments as of today, the Big 12 would likely earn only three bids. Oklahoma will need to continue its recent charge to make the field. Unless Long Beach State or UC Santa Barbara wins the conference, Cal State Fullerton is likely to be the only Big West team in the field. While Rice and UCF are both in position to host, East Carolina appears to be the only other regional team from Conference USA.

With those conferences earning fewer bids than normal, somebody stands to pick up the lost spots. At this point, the West Coast Conference is in the best position to benefit. San Diego, Pepperdine and Gonzaga are all in the top 30 in RPI. Gonzaga has the most work to do over the final month, as the Bulldogs are currently tied for sixth in the conference. Some traditional one-bid conferences, most notably the Missouri Valley and Big Ten, could pick up second bids as well.

The rest of the difference will be made up by the depth of the ACC, SEC and Pac-12. All three conferences should get at least seven teams into the field, and the ACC and SEC could get as many as 10 teams. The SEC tournament expands to 10 teams this season, and the chance for teams like Tennessee and Auburn to win a few games at Hoover could be the difference between playing in a regional and sitting at home in June. In the ACC, two teams in the top 40 in RPI are likely to miss the conference tournament and face longer odds to qualify for the NCAA tournament.

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

As the 2012 NCAA baseball season gets under way this weekend, it seems a fitting time to ramp up the projections for the NCAA tournament.

The first pitch is scheduled for Friday; from there, it will be a quick 15 weekends until the field of 64 is selected on Monday, May 28. So, let the speculation begin.

First, a quick review of last year's February bracket projection. As is the nature of the beast, it had plenty of positives and negatives.

Four of the teams that I tabbed as national seeds ended up as national seeds in June  Florida, Vanderbilt, Virginia and Texas. Three of my other national seeds (UCLA, TCU, Cal State Fullerton) ended up hosting regionals, with the biggest miss being Oklahoma (preseason national No. 4 seed, ended up as the No. 2 seed in TCU). Three of the teams I had in the 9-16 range ended up as national seeds (South Carolina, Florida State, Rice), while eventual National No. 3 seed North Carolina was projected in the 17-32 range.

That's in line with the predictive ability of the preseason coaches' poll. Four of the eventual national seeds came from the top 10, while the others ranged from No. 11 (Florida State) to unranked (North Carolina).

What were the biggest misses overall? The biggest culprits were in the Pac-10. I had UCLA as the overall national No. 1 seed (matching the preseason rankings), while the Bruins barely ended up hosting a regional. Oregon missed the field after clocking in as a regional host (and No. 10 in the preseason poll) in the preseason. That's the opposite of Oregon State's fate, as the Beavers went from a regional No. 3 seed in the preseason to a regional host in June. Also out west, San Diego finished nine games under .500 after being slotted as a No. 2 seed.

The best call was Virginia. The Cavaliers had lost a lot of pieces from 2010 and were in the mid-teens in the preseason rankings but ended up matching my call for a national seed. While Connecticut didn't end up as a regional host, they won the regional in Clemson to show that the preseason consideration was merited.

With those caveats about the long season ahead of us, here is my initial projection for the 2012 field:

Gainesville Regional No. 1 Florida Miami Florida International Bethune-Cookman	Tallahassee Regional    Florida State    UCF    Jacksonville    Monmouth
Fayatteville Regional No. 8 Arkansas Oklahoma Missouri State Oral Roberts	Tucson Regional    Arizona    Vanderbilt    Connecticut    Navy
College Station Regional No. 5 Texas A&M California Troy Alcorn State	Fort Worth Regional    TCU    Baylor    Dallas Baptist    Michigan State
Palo Alto Regional No. 4 Stanford UC Irvine Mississippi State Fresno State	Fullerton Regional    Cal State Fullerton    UCLA    Creighton    San Diego State
Atlanta Regional No. 6 Georgia Tech Southern Miss Mississippi Jacksonville State	Athens Regional     Georgia    Georgia Southern    Stetson    Kent State
Chapel Hill Regional No. 3 North Carolina Louisville East Carolina UNC Wilmington	Brooklyn Regional    St. John's    Virginia    Oregon    Manhattan
Houston Regional No. 7 Rice LSU Oklahoma State Dartmouth	Austin Regional    Texas    Oregon State    Texas State    Stony Brook
Columbia Regional No. 2 South Carolina Coastal Carolina NC State Charlotte	Clemson Regional    Clemson    College of Charleston    Alabama    Wright State

Last five in: Oklahoma State, Mississippi, Jacksonville, NC State, Connecticut

First nine out: Texas Tech, Southeastern Louisiana, Cal State Bakersfield, Seton Hall, Long Beach State, Wichita State, Tulane, Tennessee, Elon

The Pac-12 adds one baseball-playing member in Utah (Colorado doesn't sponsor baseball), but loses Arizona State from June baseball due to a one-year postseason ban handed down from the NCAA. That could knock the conference down to five bids, with Oregon and USC on the bubble.

There's always a high-flier from the north in the preseason, and this year it's St. John's. The Red Storm return all four starting pitchers from last year to go along with slugger Jeremy Baltz. If the Johnnies live up to expectation, they could host a regional even if they don't finish the season as a No. 1 seed. As proven over the last two years by Ohio State and Connecticut, it can be hard to play with a big bullseye on your back. If St. John's lives up to expectations, it could host a regional either at its home stadium or the minor-league ballpark in Brooklyn.

The northern teams could be helped this season by the mild weather this year. Teams that are usually forced to practice inside all the way to opening day have been able to hit the field from the start of practice. There's still plenty of time for the weather to take a turn for the worse, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the Big East and Big Ten early in the season to see if their nonconference results improve over past years.

The SEC tournament expands to 10 teams this year, and that could immediately benefit the conference with an extra NCAA tournament bid. In past years, an invitation to Hoover, Ala., was usually enough to land an at-large spot while teams that failed to make the SEC tournament needed to sweat out the bubble. For the two extra teams in the field, that could reduce the stress on Selection Monday. There are nine teams (and three national seeds) in the initial projection and any of the 12 teams could make the field if the chips fall right.

The other power conferences all seem set to send an average number of teams into June. That means a combined 31 bids for the biggest five players (SEC: 9, ACC: 7, Pac-12: 6, Big 12: 5, C-USA: 4). That still leaves plenty of spots for some of the "mid-majors," with 11 conferences meriting multiple bids at this point.

Jeremy Mills is a researcher for ESPN and is a contributor to ESPN.com's college baseball coverage.

OMAHA, Neb. -- Live by the bullpen, die by the bullpen. Almost, anyway.

Florida began Friday 41-1 this season when it led to start the seventh inning. Make it 42-1, but not until Vanderbilt nearly beat the Gators at their best. The Commodores came from three runs down to force a tie before Florida produced a pair of eighth-inning runs to win 6-4 in the most thrilling game of this College World Series.

The Gators advance to the best-of-three championship series, to begin Monday at TD Ameritrade Park.

They might need the weekend off to regain their breath.

Usually reliable, Florida's bullpen coughed up a 4-1 lead. Coach Kevin O'Sullivan used five pitchers in relief of starter Alex Panteliodis, who fired six innings of three-hit ball and threw just 86 pitches. Panteliodis retired the final eight Vanderbilt hitters he saw and allowed just one runner past first base after Aaron Westlake's first-inning homer.

With a rested and deep staff of pitchers, this almost looked like a case of overmanaging the situation, although O'Sullivan disputed the notion.

"It's always easy, in retrospect, to say, 'I wish I would have done this. I wish I wouldn't have done that,'" O'Sullivan said. "If I had it to do again, I would have done everything exactly the same."

After all, he said, that bullpen ranks as the main reason Florida reached Omaha.

"We had nine outs to go and a three-run lead," O'Sullivan said. "We like our 'pen. It didn't go quite the way we wanted it today, but the bottom line is those guys needed to throw."

That was some time to get in work -- three innings from a chance to play for the program's first national title.

The Vandy comeback began with one out in the seventh against reliever Tommy Toledo, among the Florida pitchers who did not appear in the Gators' first two CWS games this year.

The Commodores produced a run on three singles and made it 4-3 on a bases-loaded walk by reliever Nick Maronde to pinch hitter Bryan Johns. Maronde then walked Tony Kemp before Greg Larson entered to get Anthony Gomez on a fly to right field.

"I'd be lying if I said the nerves weren't there," Florida first baseman Preston Tucker said. "I was kind of nervous. They were starting to get something going, but we got out of it. We did a great job of making pitches when we needed to."

The rough road continued in the eighth inning as Curt Casali and Mike Yastrzemski singled with one out off Steven Rodriguez. Closer Austin Maddox, who hadn't pitched since May 29 because of a foot injury, then surrendered a game-tying single to Jason Esposito.

Maddox hit Conrad Gregor with a pitch and escaped with help from a diving grab by shortstop Nolan Fontana of a Connor Harrell line drive.

"This is a pressure-packed game," the coach said. "I think everyone here felt it."

Panteliodis felt it, he said, especially after leaving the mound. He said he could have pitched into the seventh inning but trusted O'Sullivan's decision to use the bullpen.

"On this team," the starting pitcher said, "you're confident in that situation you're going to get a win."

Florida's eighth-inning rally sent Vanderbilt to its fifth loss in six meetings with the Gators this year.

Maddox worked around a two-out double to Westlake in the ninth, getting Casali on a fly to left field for the win.

"They're the best bullpen we've seen," Westlake said, "so I thought we did a great job. It's just one of those things where we came up short. And that's a credit to them."

Expect O'Sullivan to rely just as heavily on his relievers in the championship series. By the time it starts, Florida will have played just three games in 13 days.

Translation: a well-rested group of starters and relievers.

Hudson Randall and Karsten Whitson will start the first two games for the Gators. O'Sullivan said he also plans to use Brian Johnson, who has not pitched since he suffered a concussion in the Southeastern Conference tournament.

"They're all going to need to contribute if we're going to win this thing," O'Sullivan said.

Mitch Sherman is a senior writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at mshermanespn@gmail.com.

Follow Mitch Sherman on Twitter: @mitchsherman