Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game in which a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.
Upset Watch: Seattle (+4) at Chicago
Chicago Bears fans are thankful that Jay Cutler's recent concussion cost him only one game. When the Bears were forced to start Jason Campbell in Week 11, their offense was horrible. With Cutler back, their offense has gone back to being, well, pretty much just as horrible.
Yes, the Bears had a strong offensive game last week when they slammed the fading Minnesota Vikings, but overall this has been a bad offense with or without Cutler in the lineup. The Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA, but if you take out the game without Cutler and the Week 3 game where the Bears didn't have Matt Forte, they improve -- to 24th in offensive DVOA. Huzzah, I guess.