FINAL FOUR PREVIEW: March 27
South No. 5 seed INDIANA vs. West No. 2 seed OKLAHOMA | Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
Maryland-Kansas preview

Let's break down Saturday's first national semifinal between Oklahoma and Indiana. This matchup will come down to whether Indiana can get good looks from beyond the 3-point line.

I believe the Sooners will deny the Hoosiers good looks from 3-point range.

The Hoosiers shot a sensational 15-of-19 on trifectas against Kent State and poor Stan Heath in the Elite Eight. The rookie coach had to feel the brunt of Indiana's 3-point barrage.

This was the same Hoosier team that went 1-of-15 from behind the arc against the aggressive defense of Miami (Fla.) earlier this season. It was also the same team that knocked down 17 trifectas to embarrass Illinois.

Which Indiana team will show up in this national semifinal? You know Indiana needs the experience and leadership of guard Tom Coverdale. He hurt his ankle against Kent State and is considered questionable for Saturday's showdown. The MVP of the regionals, Coverdale can make big shots and distribute the basketball; he has a special understanding of how to play and win.

In the matchup on the perimeter, Oklahoma will apply its suffocating defense. The Sooners' quickness is going to be a factor. I really believe the Sooners will deny good looks from 3-point range for Coverdale (if he plays), Dane Fife and Kyle Hornsby. Indiana will have a tough time getting clean looks.

With a week to prepare, Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson will be pounding into his players' heads a simple philosophy: Let them beat us off the dribble if they can, but lock up the 3-point line. Oklahoma knows it doesn't want to be the victim of a 15-of-19 explosion. Indiana hit eight trifectas in a row to start the Kent State game. How can you overcome that?

The Sooners have been battle-tested all season long. They have wins over Maryland, Kansas and Connecticut. How are the Sooners at defending the trifecta? Go ask Arizona coach Lute Olson -- his Wildcats shot 5-of-22 against them in the West regional semifinal.

I see the Sooners defending the perimeter well in this contest. Oklahoma's transition game should lead to offensive opportunities. I give the edge to Sampson and his Sooners to advance to Monday night's title game.