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BP Daily: Mariners have a title shot

Seattle's start could shake up team's thinking on rebuild

Originally Published: April 27, 2009
By Christina Kahrl | Baseball Prospectus

If you're one of those statheads inclined to pooh-pooh early-season action, avoid hasty conclusions and prattle on about small sample sizes -- and count me among them -- there is one thing we might not have believed three weeks ago. Out in the AL West, the Mariners should be taken seriously as a team with win-now potential.

No, really. Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, you'll see that our daily million-season exercise in forecasting based on today's standings suggests the M's have a 35 percent chance of reaching October action, 33 percent by virtue of winning the West outright. PECOTA projection-enhanced forecasts see the Mariners do better still, winning their division almost 37 percent of the time.

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