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Considering the 'impact' of the draw

Updated: December 7, 2009, 11:17 AM ET
By Nate Silver | Special to ESPN.com

There is arguably more on the line tomorrow than on any day of actual soccer competition. Based on the way Charlize Theron draws the pingpong balls in Cape Town, South Africa, the United States could have as much as a 63 percent chance of advancing to the knockout stages in next summer's World Cup -- or as little as a 25 percent chance. England could be anywhere from 94 percent to 69 percent.

The difference for some other teams may be even larger: Ivory Coast, for instance, has an 89 ...

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