OK, I'll say it: Texas 16, Alabama 14

Updated: January 7, 2010, 1:16 PM ET
By Bruce Feldman

Unless you live in Texas, you've probably noticed that about 80 percent of the people predicting the winner of Thursday night's BCS National Championship Game are going with the Alabama Crimson Tide. I can understand why: dominant defense, played a tougher schedule, were more impressive in their last game out, other reasons. OK, I get that.

The experts in Vegas made Bama the favorite for all those reasons and then some, as my pal Chad Millman pointed out:

    "In the eyes of bookmakers, the difference between the SEC and the Big 12 is as big as the Texas horizon, at least this season. No matter how dominant Texas was, Alabama went undefeated in a stronger conference. Also, as Brown pointed out, in the most recent game each team played, Texas struggled against Nebraska while Bama destroyed the Gators. That counts for a lot when the spread is being made. Not just because it gives bookmakers an indication of who is better, but also because it helps them determine who the public will favor.

Fine. I'm picking Texas in the upset.