The most widely bet SB ever (maybe)
Editor's note: If you want to get involved in Millman's Super Bowl prop bet contest, please click here.
I have six more days to get ready. I am studying the play-by-plays of all 18 games for both Super Bowl teams. I am looking for trends: When is Drew Brees most likely to throw a pick? How often does each team gain first downs? What percentage of their drives end in field goals?
Come Sunday, I will not make a play on the winner of the Super Bowl. I don't want my head to be clouded, because I will be hanging at the M Resort outside Las Vegas with my buddy Matt and sports bet handicapper Teddy Covers, betting on just about every play of the game. And I don't want to root against my bet.
In the fall I wrote about the M's new in-game wagering option. The place has a handheld device, and from your seat you can make plays as the game progresses.
Some of the options: Will the current drive yield a first down? Or will the current drive result in a punt, field goal, touchdown or interception/fumble? Cantor Gaming, which developed the system, has math geniuses who wrote algorithms calculating the odds of such events as the game is played. They are changing constantly depending on the situation. And this past year, Cantor estimates, in-game wagering accounted for 5 percent of all sports betting in Nevada. In Europe, where sports betting is more widely accepted than in the U.S., mobile betting has been available for three years. In 2007, it accounted for $1 billion in bets. This year, its estimated total is $8.9 billion.
I will record every bet I make so I can give a final tally on my efforts in next Monday's column. Matt will handle the device and punch in the bets while I take notes. Covers will make sure I don't hock my plane ticket home for a few more bets.
Whether I play a side or not, I will be part of what may be the most widely bet Super Bowl ever. How high will the total amount go? $90 million? $100 million? I did a bunch of radio interviews this past week about betting on the Super Bowl, and that was one of the most frequent questions asked.
Well, there are two ways to answer that question.
This in-game wagering is fairly cool, no? In the second half of his blog entry, Chad Millman discusses the line -- which has fluctuated from Colts minus-6½ to Colts minus-3½ -- and what you should think about it six days out. For this information -- vital given that someone you know probably is betting on this game -- you need to be an ESPN Insider.