Discussion

SPI in review: How did it do?

Originally Published: July 19, 2010
By Nate Silver | Special to ESPN.com

It was almost two tournaments in one. This year's World Cup abruptly shifted gears from an unpredictable affair dominated by underdogs and South American teams in the group stage to a more efficiently played one dominated by favorites and European teams in the knockout stages. The Las Vegas odds correctly predicted the outcome of 12 of the 16 matches in the knockout stage, missing only U.S.-Ghana, England-Germany, Argentina-Germany and Brazil-Netherlands. The SPI match predictor got 13 of 16 right, ...

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