Pay Derek Jeter about $25 million
19 historically similar players reveal Jeter should get what Placido Polanco got in '09
Jeter has enjoyed a remarkable career, with no signs of slowing down, including an MVP-level season in 2009. How much Major League Baseball life will be left in Jeter's body in 2011, when he will be 37 years old?
One season later, we have a huge sign of Jeter slowing down. In 2010, he put up one of his worst -- if not the worst -- season of his career. It was still a good season by the standards of an average ballplayer, but not by his own standards. The question stands: How big will his next contract be? This question is particularly relevant considering the comments of Jeter's agent, who yesterday said that Jeter's value to the Yankees, "cannot be overstated."
As I also wrote in my earlier piece, to determine his value we need to figure out how good we think he will be from 2011 onward. One way to determine this is to use a metric called WAR (wins above replacement), which I helped develop and accounts for hitting, fielding and baserunning. BaseballProjection.com has the annual WAR for all players through 2010, and the numbers can be used to put Jeter's future value in context.
While Jeter accumulated a total of 15 wins in his past four seasons, he earned less than two of those wins last year at age 36. We need to find a representative sample of players who were great over a period of three years, but followed that up with a less-than-stellar season.
For the full argument here, you need to be an ESPN Insider.
Offseason Buyer's Guide
Buyer's GuideNov. 7: Keith Law's top 50 free agent rankings
Nov. 8: Buyers Guide: Starting Pitchers
• Projecting the Starters
Nov. 9: Buyers Guide: Relief Pitchers
• Projecting the Relievers
Nov. 10: Buyers Guide: Catchers
• Projecting the Catchers
Nov. 11: Buyers Guide: First basemen/DH
• Projecting the first basemen
Nov. 12: Buyers Guide: Middle infielders
• Projecting middle infielders
Nov. 15: Buyers Guide: Third basemen
• Projecting the third basemen
Nov. 16: Buyers Guide: Outfielders
• Projecting the outfielders
FeaturesNov. 5: BP: Five biggest holes
Nov. 5: Olney: Quieting the rumor mill
Nov. 5: BIS: The next defensive makeover
Nov. 6: BP: Five top moves
Nov. 10: Olney: Top teams chasing Carl Crawford
Nov. 11: Keating: Teams that shouldn't make a move
Nov. 13: BIS: Finding hidden value free agents
Nov. 15: BP: Shopping in the $0.99 bin
History• Law: 2009 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2008 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2007 top 50 rankings
• Law: 2006 top 40 rankings