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Predicting Champs League first leg

Updated: February 14, 2012, 9:12 AM ET
By Jacob Nitzberg, ESPN Stats & Information

With the Champions League knockout round beginning today, let's determine each team's chances in the first leg. Using ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) we calculated the offensive, defensive and overall rating of each team and used those to simulate each matchup 10,000 times. Here's a look at the four matches this week.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Barcelona

First-leg projections, SPI

Leverkusen Draw Barcelona

14.8 pct 21.2 pct 64.0 pct

Barcelona, ...

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