As of Monday, bid theft minimal

Updated: March 5, 2012, 12:33 PM ET
By Joe Lunardi

Four down, 64 to go. Through Sunday afternoon we've seen the first four automatic bids for the NCAA tournament handed out and to date the bids have gone according to plan, so to speak.

The Murray State Racers preempted any bubble talk by edging Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley Conference title game. The Racers are joined by UNC-Asheville and Belmont, who earned auto-bids on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Creighton Bluejays earned a prominent place in the hearts of bubble teams by edging Illinois State in overtime to prevent the Redbirds from stealing a bid to the NCAA tournament.

Who should be sending the McDermott family thank-you notes? Well, start with the Seton Hall Pirates, who have squandered a recent big win over the Georgetown Hoyas with consecutive losses to Rutgers and DePaul. The Pirates, now among our Last Four In, could still make the tournament, but they won't do it with their back-up lights on. As I discuss elsewhere today, I believe they need two wins in the Big East tournament to rest easy.

While hope remains for the Hall and other major conference teams with opportunities to do damage in conference tournaments, there are some that we can now safely count out of the NCAA tournament.

The Butler Bulldogs fell in the Horizon League semis and with an RPI of 113 and only three wins against the RPI top 100, it's safe to say the Bulldogs won't garner any at-large consideration. The Iona Gaels make a slightly more interesting case, but after losing to Fairfield in the MAAC tournament, I have them at No. 74 on the seed curve -- our "Next Four Out."

The S-Curve

This is where teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart. Teams with an asterisk currently lead their conferences and project to receive automatic bids, per the rules of bracketology. While Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan tied for the Big Ten regular-season title, the asterisk goes to the Spartans as they are the highest of the three teams on the S-Curve. Teams with an asterisk in bold have won their conference tournaments and clinched auto-bids.