We knew Guerrero was going to sign somewhere, be it Baltimore, the Mets, a dark horse such as the Angels, so on. The question is, did his future home really matter for fantasy purposes? I'd say not really (unless Vlad's new home were Coors, of course). We know Guerrero can hit any pitching, any time, in any situation. In a 2004 draft I participated in a few weeks ago, Guerrero was the No. 5 pick. But based on his achy back last season, and his decreased stolen base production (a paltry nine), I'd say fifth is a little too high a pick. Assume the power is still there -- Guerrero is only 27 -- but watch out for his stolen base numbers. The guy ran whenever he felt like it, swiping 77 bags and getting caught 36 times over the 2001 and '02 seasons. That's not a good percentage at all, and in a pennant race, let's just say he'll see a red light. Plus, stealing bases can't be good for an aching back, and Vlad isn't being paid to steal bases. I liken this to Sammy Sosa putting on the brakes. Look for Vlad to produce runs, but he'll be a lot more Sosa than Carlos Beltran in 2004.
-- Eric Karabell