Friday, February 9, 2007
Updated: July 14, 5:44 PM ET
Carroll's Injury Chat
By Will Carroll
Welcome to The Show! On Friday, Will Carroll stopped by to discuss all things injury related in fantasy sports.
Will Carroll: (11:01 AM ET ) Ah, the hometown team brings home the Lombardi Trophy and we're rewarded with a foot of snow and subfreezing temperatures. Let's all think warm thoughts of spring training and boat drinks for the next hour. Pitchers and Molinas report next week so, powered by dreams of warmth, let's chat.
(You know the rules by now ...)
Jimmy (nj): Will - Studies have been done the past few years indicating IP increases and stress on arm can lead to injury. What SP's going into 2007 are more of an injury risk?
Will Carroll: (11:03 AM ET ) Yeah, I've been a part of some of those and one of the loudest voices talking about this. I don't have a full list, but I'll try and get one together. I'll give it to Eric Karabell to post on his blog. The poster child for the issue is Justin Verlander -- big innings increase, shaky mechanics, deep playoff run.
Tom (Indianola, IA): Will, Arod alluded to an injury late last year that may have contributed to his numbers being lower than normal. Have you heard any more about this injury or what it was?
Will Carroll: (11:06 AM ET ) Without piling on A-Rod -- I'll leave that to the rest of the media -- I hate players that talk about an injury after the fact. Look, I watch players as close as anyone and usually, there's something we can see in their performance. A-Rod is following a normal aging pattern and remains one of the top 20 players in the game in an "off year." Let's see if he bounces back.
Jeremy (Bellevue): Will, in your humble opinion.. Were do you draft Bonds in the draft? Can he stay heaelthy enough to play the whole season at LF? And what are your thoughts on Shef's injury too?
Will Carroll: (11:08 AM ET ) Do I have humble opinions? I take him somewhere around the 8th round of an NL-only. I've taken him a bit earlier in some drafts because I like to make a statement and, hey, that's what I do. Play the whole season? I think what we saw last year, maybe a slight slight improvement.
Sheffield? Not too worried. He has his bat speed back and DHing should help him. Comerica might make him look a bit worse in the raw, but you're all smarter than that.
Gerard Way (NJ): Will I will record a special song just for you if you answer me this question. What is the status of Hank Blalock's shoulder and do you think this might have been a contributing factor to his recent woes?
Will Carroll: (11:09 AM ET ) Wow. I like this concept. Do I have to wait for the next album, because your last made my Top Five.
Blalock's shoulder is improved, but he seems to have Saberhagen's disease. There's no consistency to his problem, no one thing that he needs to fix. He needs to do what he did in 2005, whatever that was.
Mike (DC): Is the fifth round good value to keep Ben Sheets at?
Will Carroll: (11:09 AM ET ) Yes.
Did I say yes?
Will (Arlington, TX): What can we expect from Gagne this year? Is he back to 100%?
Will Carroll: (11:10 AM ET ) I don't think we'll ever see 100% from him for a variety of reasons. Will we see effective? Probably. I'm not sure we'll see dominant or even great, but I'd guess somewhere around the PECOTA mean. There's not going to be a middling Gagne -- he'll be good or awful.
James: Will, you caused some uproar in Toronto! Any comments on J.P./Doc Halladay??
Will Carroll: (11:12 AM ET ) I've said all I'm going to say on that. Don't overblow what I said -- cramping in the forearm is enough to get Halladay a yellow light in my health reports (which start Monday!) not a red. He's certainly in a better place going into 2007 than he was in 2006.
Travis (S.C.): Will, what do you make of Scott Kazmir's tender shoulder ... and his longterm health with such a slight frame. I know Pedro and Billy Wagner have been pretty durable as small-frame pitchers but are they exceptions?
Will Carroll: (11:13 AM ET ) Pedro's arm has nearly fallen off twice and it took near miracles to bring him back (and yes, I think he'll come back good not great in July.) Wagner needed TJ. I wouldn't be setting them as great models. I think Kazmir's mechanics are wonky enough that he'll always be a worry, but his stuff is so sick when he's on that you just hope he stays healthy. The Rays staff is one of the best in baseball and they know keeping him together is perhaps their biggest job.
Louis (DC): What do you project for Bill Hall this season?
Will Carroll: (11:15 AM ET ) I saw Hall play in Triple-A a few years ago and didn't think he'd make it. Worse, I told my buddy and Hall's mom was sitting right behind me. Mrs. Hall, I was wrong. Hall's really developed, just another of the young guys the Brewers have developed and now are starting to keep. I think he'll be a solid CF and his PECOTA card looks nice to me.
yorkis (philly): Do you think Marcus Camby will play 65 games this year? (I figured I'd ask a hoops question since unlike baseball and football, people are actually playing now.)
Will Carroll: (11:16 AM ET ) They are? I thought they were too busy getting in bar fights. (Oh, that's just here in Indy.)
65? Sounds a bit high, but not too much.
Brett (Fargo, ND): What do you think Liriano will look like when he comes back? Will that deadly slider of his ever be the same?
Will Carroll: (11:17 AM ET ) Well, most come back fine from TJ -- BUT NOT BETTER OR FASTER -- sorry, pet peeve of mine. They come back healthy, something most of them haven't been for some time. I would love to see someone send Liriano to ASMI to see what kind of forces he's putting on his elbow with that slider. Both he and Santana have that snap in their delivery that worry me -- Santana's had bone chips in that elbow, don't forget.
Anthony (NYC): Is Granderson progressing as planned? What type of numbers can this guy put up over his career, longterm?
Will Carroll: (11:18 AM ET ) I think he's good, not great. I know he's been working a lot this offseason on cutting down the Ks. That'd help, but he's becoming a placeholder for Cameron Maybin. That they have that kind of placeholder tells you what kind of talent Dave Dombrowski has put together.
Mike(Charlotte): I know he didn't really have a physical injury, but what about Greinke? Will he start this year and be at least semi-productive?
Will Carroll: (11:19 AM ET ) He's a phenomenal talent. Buster Olney had a nice story about him in his must-read blog the other day. Let's hope that we get the chance to see that talent maximized.
Jonathan (Blacksburg): Will, Baseball comeback player of the year?
Will Carroll: (11:20 AM ET ) Jeez, who knows? I think this is a dumb award. What players really go away? I'd like to see Jon Lester win it.
Butch (Birmingham): Do the thousands of innings Zambrano's logged over the last few years concern you? Or is he just built to be durable?
Will Carroll: (11:21 AM ET ) Some pitchers are just freaks that can take that kind of use. Then again, I'm not going to give him a ten-figure check to see if he's going to stay healthy.
Frank (Boston, MA): Will Papelbon be DEALING this year as a SP anywhere close to where he was at as a RP last year? With no past injury history and a regular throwing rotation (after the year he had in 2006 plus AA and AAA stints with sub 3 ERA and a K/IP), I like his chances at staying healthy and becoming an ace this season.
Will Carroll: (11:22 AM ET ) Seeing how he adjusts and how his shoulder holds up will be one of the interesting stories this season. I don't think a sub-3.00 is a possibility -- we might have two or three of those total in the league.
Robert (Madrid): My fantasy is for the Indians to win the World Series...
Will Carroll: (11:23 AM ET ) My fantasies seldom involve baseball.
ray (connecticut): Do you think Donavan Mcnabb can return as a dominate qb?
Will Carroll: (11:24 AM ET ) I think he can be very good. I think he can come back to where he was physically. Whether all the factors that have to come together like they did for the first half of this season all line up again is a wait-and-see. He's one of my top 3 QBs picked.
Brett (Fargo, ND): Are you one of the guys who thinks Dice-K will come in and dominate, or are you, like me, skeptical of how he'll handle major leagers during the regular season?
Will Carroll: (11:26 AM ET ) Really, is it that hard to type Daisuke? You know how many times I had to type Mientkiewicz or Grudzialanek or Houshmandzadeh over the last year?
He'll be very, very good. I think his second time around the league will be more interesting. The first, he'll have his good days and bad, but he has four plus pitches before we even discuss the gyro.
Goose (Chicago): Zambrano, a ten-figure check? Wow, first billion dollar man. You already taunted Chicago with your Superbowl reference, why not tell us Zambrano, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez are all going to hurt themselves...
Will Carroll: (11:27 AM ET ) 20,000,000 ... oops, that's eight figures. Math is not my strong suit.
Nope, all pretty good injury risks, save Ramirez, who always seems to have something go wrong once a season.
Butch (Birmingham): What odds would you give that Prior makes 30 starts? 15%?
Will Carroll: (11:27 AM ET ) 20? 25? I'm a bit more positive on Prior than most right now.
anthony, miami florida: i need 2 keepers in an auction 5x5 league out of this group, who has the best value? Sheets 15 , Cano 8, Torres 1, Chipper 9, Sowers 4, Robertson 4, Olsen 2, Posada 10, Aramis 19, Upton 1, Cameron 3, or Bay 27? thanks
Will Carroll: (11:29 AM ET ) I can't see Bay going for less than 27 and I'd pay 20 for Sheets. Torres will probably get 20-30 saves. Cameron could get some steals and go about $10. Choose amongst those.
Charles (chicago): What's a reasonable expectation for Derrek Lee this year? I guess he'll never repeat 05 but is he healthy enough to be a top 1b? Cubs need him.
Will Carroll: (11:30 AM ET ) He broke his wrist. Wrong place, wrong time. Players usually come back from this. You're right, 05 is called a career year for a reason, but if you take a look at his PECOTA, I actually think it's a bit low.
Sal -st. louis (st louis): how much do you think scott rolen has left in the tank
Will Carroll: (11:30 AM ET ) Quite a bit. I like the idea of him being another year out from his shoulder surgery and playing angry.
Anthony (NYC): Longoria, Brignac and Dukes are these guys going to save the D rays? Whats their ETA and whos the best of the 3 in long term?
Will Carroll: (11:31 AM ET ) Our prospect guru, Kevin Goldstein had them in that order, I think, just behind Delmon Young. Can't disagree with that, though I am not a scout.
Floyd (Savannah): What do you expect from Matsuzaka? Is he an injury risk due to his many Japanese innings?
Will Carroll: (11:32 AM ET ) I expect 15-16 wins and an ERA around 4 with a lot of Ks. His injury risk is more due to the change from the Japanese six man rotation to the American five man. I think he's smart enough that he'll reduce his pitch counts, make guys hit his pitches not theirs, and stay healthy. He hasn't had arm problems in a couple years and is past the injury nexus.
anthony, miami florida: what kind of year do you see for cano and bj upton, and their auction values?
Will Carroll: (11:34 AM ET ) I really like Cano and think he's high teens. Upton depends on if he can carve out a role. I'm not sure he's not Brandon Phillips, Part II. He's one of those guys I'd bid $2 on when someone tries to steal him for $1.
Jonathan (Blacksburg): Was Nomo projected higher then Matsuzaka or other way around?
Will Carroll: (11:34 AM ET ) I'm not sure about Nomo's projections. Translate Nomo's rookie stats to today and that's pretty solid.
Brian (NYC): What should the Mets expect from Chan Ho Park this year, unrealistic to expect 13-7?
Will Carroll: (11:35 AM ET ) As unrealistic as me expecting a second date with Kristin Bell.
Josh (Sheboygan, WI): Since were talking fantasy stuff, who do you think has the best league hosting site?
Will Carroll: (11:36 AM ET ) Just wait til you see what the ESPN crew has in store for 07.
Dave:(Boston, MA): Did Carlos Beltran have a career power year last year, or should we be expecting 40 HR's again? Also, above or below 25 steals for Beltran this year?
Will Carroll: (11:38 AM ET ) No, he adjusted and was part of a solid lineup. I think he can replicate last season and actually wouldn't be surprised by a bit more power as he ages. 25? Umm ...seems a bit high given his totals in NY of just under 20 per.
Shane (West Paterson, NJ): What do you think of Culpepper as a keeper for next year? I can keep 7 in a 12 team league. I also have Favre and Green, who i am not planning on keeping. Can Culpepper regain his magic? Does he belong amongst TO, Walker, Chester, Alexander, D.Henderson, Caddy, Heap as keepers? Thanks Will!
Will Carroll: (11:38 AM ET ) When healthy, he's sucked. Add in the injury risk and his likely draft postion, I'll keep Favre, thanks.
Lanz(ny): 30-30 for Baldelli in the near future?
Will Carroll: (11:39 AM ET ) Probably high on both. 25-20 is probably the ceiling now.
Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee, WI): What do you think about my wrist? Does it make you nervous?
Will Carroll: (11:40 AM ET ) Yes, because I picked you over Prince for my Brewers jersey last year. I think you could be the next Soriano (and I mean that as a compliment.)
Jeremy (nh): how many games do you think Damon will miss from injury, and how do you think Matsui will do after being out for most fo last year.
Will Carroll: (11:41 AM ET ) Damon. Never been on the DL, so ... 10? Matsui. He'll return to his normal steady form. He had his bat back and has had all off-season to get ready.
Justin (Queens, NY): Will Bobby Crosby ever stay healty?
Will Carroll: (11:42 AM ET ) Unlikely. Guys don't suddenly stop getting hurt absent some major change.
Jeff (St. Chuck, MO): Will the Thrill - is it worth grabbing clemens in the late rounds or do you expect another have season of production out of him.
Will Carroll: (11:42 AM ET ) Definitely. He'll be back, somewhere, racking up strikeouts and hopefully getting more run support than he saw in Houston. He won't be back before June.
Carl Crawford (Tampa): Will I be in pinstripes by the end of this season?
Will Carroll: (11:43 AM ET ) Only if Tampa debuts new uniforms.
Jacob (Seattle): Will - Is there an innings/pitch count benchmark for RPs similar to SPs that indicates possible injury risk? You look at the workloads of Lidge and Foulke in recent years and their problems in the seasons following. Just wondering if you've done any analysis here.
Will Carroll: (11:44 AM ET ) No, it's one of the problems that smart guys like Keith Woolner are working on. There's more to it than innings or pitches. All these measures are just proxies for fatigue.
Jamie (NJ): Can you rank Jered Weaver, Sheets, Dmat and Felix Hernandez?
Will Carroll: (11:45 AM ET ) Hmm. For 2007? Sheets, Matsuzaka, Hernandez, Weaver.
Long term? Matsuzaka, Hernandez, Sheets, Weaver.
Barry Bonds (San Francisco): Will I be healthy enough to break the home run record next season? If so, how soon do you think I will break it?
Will Carroll: (11:45 AM ET ) Yes. Mid-to-late August.
Jay(Boston): Is Mike Hampton worth a gamble on draft day?
Will Carroll: (11:46 AM ET ) Very late round, yes. I've seen him go stupidly high.
Cory(Newark): Will we see a 4 man rotation by 2015?
Will Carroll: (11:47 AM ET ) Yes, I think so. I think we'll see more and more people that grew up reading Baseball Prospectus moving into front offices, that Jamesian thinking will be orthodoxy not revolutionary, and that we'll have more teams cycling through desperation, willing to try something new to change their fortunes. At some point, a team is going to notice that their fifth starter stinks.
Barry Bonds (San Francisco): Will my steriod investigations keep me out of alot of games next season?
Will Carroll: (11:48 AM ET ) There's no reason to believe it will have any more effect this season than last.
ryan(madison,wi): Have you seen any studies done on pitchers based on the amount of non fastballs they throw and if so was this related to injury at all?
Will Carroll: (11:48 AM ET ) Yes, and the answers more about how well they throw them. A curve or slider is only significantly more "costly" when it's thrown improperly.
Matt,MPLS : Worst injury you have seen live and in person?
Will Carroll: (11:51 AM ET ) Club soccer game --- goalie came out to pick up the ball and planted his left foot. As he's scooping the ball up, the opposing player slides in, misses the ball and connects just above the ankle. Tib and fib come through the skin. The student trainer assigned to the game came out and passed out cold. I was one field over with the baseball team. Trying to stop the bleeding and keep the poor guy (exchange student with poor English) calm was intense.
Eddie (NY): Who are your most injury prone guys to avoid in the draft? Who is known as injury prone and will surprise and be healthy in 2007?
Will Carroll: (11:51 AM ET ) Aha, you'll have to wait and see the Positional Health Reports, starting Monday.
Garrett (Wrigleyville): Do you think Ryan Braun takes advantage of Corey Koskie's injury and weak bat and takes over 3rd for the Brew Crew by June?
Will Carroll: (11:52 AM ET ) June might be early ... or he could win the job in spring training. He's not far off.
Jeff (CT): Stop answering questions from Baroid! You should be just as forthcoming as he is when it comes to answering questions! That notwithstanding, do you think Wood will be healthy enough to get a shot to close at some point this year?
Will Carroll: (11:53 AM ET ) No. One thing Steve Stone pointed out to me in a recent interview is that Wood has problems with control in the first inning. He's going to have to correct that and quick.
Adam (Baltimore): Keeper Question: Sheets or Webb for thhis season?
Will Carroll: (11:53 AM ET ) As much as I love Sheets, there's no question here: Webb. Best sinker of the generation.
Dale (TN): Is Kouzmenoff someone to watch? Better than Braun and Fields?
Will Carroll: (11:54 AM ET ) PECOTA loves Kouzmanoff. (PECOTA is the BP projection system.) I don't think he has the upside of Braun or Fields, but I'm not sure Fields is a 3B long term.
Jeff (NYC): Oh yeah Will? I was a spry 14 year old back in 1989 when my Dad & I witnessed the WORST injury in sports when Clint Malarchuk got his throat slit by a skate a mere 20 feet in front of where we sat. To this day, I still think about that incident occasionally.
Will Carroll: (11:54 AM ET ) Luckily, so does Clint Malarchuk. One of the most amazing jobs by a trainer ever on that save.
Todd(Boston): Will Plummer be the QB for the Texans next season and do you think the absence of Kubiak last year in Denver attributed to Plummer regressing so much from 05 to 06?
Will Carroll: (11:56 AM ET ) I think Kubiak is some of it, but is Plummer really an upgrade over Carr? I'd rather see someone like Garcia or ... I dunno, is there some MAC QB that they can pick in the sixth?
Ted (philly): Better Keeper: Weeks, Cano, or Kendrick?
Will Carroll: (11:57 AM ET ) Can't go wrong. I'd take Kendrick.
Jon (Lawrence, KS): What can bo-sox expect out of J.D. Drew. As a cards fan there was always tremendous upside....but the guy would sideline himself with a freaking hang nail....Over under on how may games he plays, 84?
Will Carroll: (11:57 AM ET ) Way over. I'd set the over/under at 115 and take the over.
Anthony (NYC): All these D-mat questions, what about Igawa? Projections?
Will Carroll: (11:58 AM ET ) Better than league average -- 12-14 wins, 4.00 ERA? He's important to both the hopes of the Yankees and to the next wave of Japanese pitchers.
Steve (Dallas): Buzzer beater! Gagne for closer despite injuries?
Will Carroll: (11:59 AM ET ) He's not in my top ten closers, but he's got the job.
steve (buffalo): keeper question: hamels or arroyo for this season
Will Carroll: (11:59 AM ET ) Hamels by far.
jason (new york): I know this is a silly question, but what round would you draft Liriano NEXT YEAR in 2008?
Will Carroll: (11:59 AM ET ) As low as I could still get him.
Butch (Birmingham): What do you think of the Bears trading for Carr? I like it.
Will Carroll: (12:00 PM ET ) Depends on what they give up. Not the worst idea I've heard. I'm hearing rumors of trading up for Quinn if he slides past the first couple picks, but this is Indiana and we hear lots of irrational things about Notre Dame guys.
Brett (Fargo, ND): Best closer in the league? I say Nathan.
Will Carroll: (12:00 PM ET ) Wagner.
Chris (MI): Do you see larry johnson breaking down next year due to this season's heavy workload?
Will Carroll: (12:00 PM ET ) Yes.
steve (buffalo): keeper question: hamels or arroyo for this season
Will Carroll: (12:01 PM ET ) Hamels in a runaway. Krivsky's going to hate that Arroyo extension.
And with that, I'm out. See you next week!