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Monday, October 22, 2007
Salisbury: Jaguars to run, Colts to pass

By Sean Salisbury
ESPN

Every Monday, ESPN football analyst Sean Salisbury provides his picks and keys to the game for ESPN PlayCaller. Want to put Sean's advice to work? Think you know better? Join now and let's see what you've got.

Predictions

Quarterback with most passing yards: Peyton Manning
While Jacksonville has a good defense, Peyton has better weapons, and even though Marvin Harrison might not play, Manning will still have more yards. David Garrard will throw underneath stuff, and because the Colts won't be able to run the ball on Jacksonville, they will have to pass more.

Quarterback with most touchdown passes: Peyton Manning
I believe Garrard will have a good night with a couple of touchdowns, but with the Colts on the road, Manning will have to get two or three TD passes to win, especially since the Colts will be short on the run.

Running back with most yards: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars are a physical team and will try to establish the run. They won't rush against the Colts like they did last season, especially with Bob Sanders in the game, but Drew will lead the way with the most yardage.

Running back with most touchdowns: Joseph Addai
With the Colts potentially being without Harrison, someone will have to pick up the slack, and I suspect that when the Colts get down close to the goal line, he will be the guy.

First team to score: Indianapolis Colts
It will be on a field goal. There might be a couple of three-and-outs for both teams, but at some point Manning will drive them down and Adam Vinatieri, one of the greatest kickers of our time, will put the Colts up 3-0.

Most field goals: Adam Vinatieri.
Vinatieri will lead the way with the most field goals because he will have the most attempts, and he doesn't miss.

Player with the most receiving yards: Reggie Wayne
Wayne is becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber guy. The game plan will be for the Colts to pass it between the 20s, and Wayne will have his night.

Keys to the game for the Colts

  1. Contain Jacksonville's defensive tackles
    The Jaguars, in my opinion, are the most physical team in the league and if they control the line of scrimmage with the big fellas up front, they've got a shot. The Colts must control the line.

  2. Start fast
    On the road, outdoors and coming off the bye. Hit them with 14 or 17 and you might be able to put them away early.

  3. Contain the run

    The Colts gave up 375 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last season, and that won't cut it on Monday night. With Sanders in the lineup, the Colts will do a better job containing the run game, and they have to.

    Keys to the game for the Jaguars

    1. Don't let Manning get off to a fast start
      The Jaguars are not a chase-from-behind team. They run the ball and they don't want to be down 17-0, chasing the Colts. That'd be a bad thing.

    2. Don't abandon the run
      Don't get worried about a couple of three-and-outs, and don't abandon the run. The Colts will try to make you one-dimensional, but don't abandon the run. Stick to the game plan.

    3. Make Manning uncomfortable by disrupting his rhythm
      Make him have to clutch the ball once or twice after the three-step drop. Cover, cover, cover and hope you can shut the machine down. And good luck with that.

    In the end the Colts, although I'm a bit leery of my pick, will top the Jaguars, but only by an Adam Vinatieri field goal.

    Sean Salisbury is an NFL analyst for ESPN