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Friday, January 28, 2011
Playing the over-under game with Bill James' projections

By Gordon Edes

With spring training around the corner, we're busting out the Bill James Handbook to get the sabermetrician's projections for each player on the 2011 Boston Red Sox.

Below you'll find the Handbook's projections for each player, my analysis and prediction on whether they'll go over or under the number and a chance for you to do the same.

What did I base my predictions on? For position players, I selected OPS, which is a player's on-base plus slugging percentage, as the "over-under" tool because it is the best measure of a hitter's overall performance. I used ERA for pitchers because James is routinely on the low side when it comes to forecasting won-loss, and because ERA is a better barometer of individual performance than wins and losses, which is more of a team stat.