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Too many other factors go into whether a pitcher ultimately ends up with a W at the end of his pitching day, not the least of which is whether his lineup can score enough to make the starter's efforts bear fruit.
|Tim Lincecum's offense didn't help him much in 2011.|
You'll notice the impact of the pitiful Seattle Mariners and their microscopic run support. Felix Hernandez would likely be on this list regardless of the team he played for. Jason Vargas, on the other hand, did all he could and still managed only 10 wins. If his run support remains the same, that's the most we can likely expect from him in the future.However, given a pitcher's consistent ownership level, a boost in run support is certainly something that can change a pitcher's fortune immediately. Evidence of that can be found in Doug Fister's transformation from a 3-12 pitcher to an ace-like 8-1 after he went to Detroit and saw an increase of nearly four runs per game from his bats. Looking forward, we can easily see Michael Pineda's value soaring thanks a trade to the New York Yankees. Just check out his numbers from last season, when he was also suffering from a certain case of Seattle lumber slumber. With just one extra run per game, and giving him the same ownership level, he would have been expected to win four more games.
Going to New York should easily take his 2012 projection from an average 11 wins to the 15-win neighborhood, even if his statistics also take a bit of a hit because he'll be pitching in a hitter-friendly stadium.Rounding out our brief overview of ownership: We'll provide you with a list of pitchers to be wary of for the upcoming season, especially if you believe that their lineups won't be able to provide them with the same assistance this year. For example, trouble is definitely brewing for Milwaukee's staff with no Prince Fielder and two months without Ryan Braun. Also, a new home for Gio Gonzalez in a less-friendly pitcher's park with a potentially lower-scoring lineup might spell disaster for the new National.
No pitcher is going to be able to win if his team is shut out on a regular basis, but those who take the most ownership of their outings are certainly going to make the most lemonade out of the lemons that come their way.
AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. His book "How Fantasy Sports Explains the World" is available for purchase here.You can e-mail him here.
Follow AJ Mass on Twitter: @AJMass