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Friday, February 22, 2013
Trade deadline recap; Duncan's value


The fantasy landscape wasn't altered as many expected by the trade deadline, as the most substantial deal on Thursday involved J.J. Redick going to the Milwaukee Bucks along with Gustavo Ayon and Ish Smith in exchange for Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris and Deron Lamb. Huzzah. Redick should see a decrease in value playing with such high-usage guards as Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, so although he'll still put up nice 3-point totals with open looks and capable (but not always willing) passers around him, the 4.4 assists per game he was averaging with the Orlando Magic likely will plummet. Since Redick doesn't help in steals, either, he's now primarily a 3-point specialist and should be viewed as such from a fantasy standpoint. He'll still provide double-digit points and over two 3s per game, which make him worth starting in most formats, but his 21.54 usage rate will likely trend closer to the mid-teens with Jennings and Ellis both demanding the ball in their hands for most possessions. Redick's No. 58 ranking on the Player Rater should drift closer to the 75-100 range, still worth a spot in any format but no longer a sure-fire starter in every league. (For more on the fantasy impact of the trade deadline deals, check out John Cregan's wrapup.)

Looking Back

Tim Duncan scored just nine points with five rebounds in 16 minutes in the San Antonio Spurs' rout of the Los Angeles Clippers. Although his low minute total can largely be attributed to the game's lack of competitiveness, it's illogical to expect him to repeat his gaudy first-half statistics in the second half. Problem is, this is no secret, as most fantasy owners know that he'll be handled with kid gloves from here on out, so his trade value is low compared to his season totals. I wouldn't sell too low on Duncan, as he'll still be instrumental to the Spurs as they vie for playoff seeding, although if there is somebody who is willing to give top-25 value for him, shop him freely while his statistics are still sparkling.

Nate Robinson continues shouldering the load in the Chicago Bulls backcourt while Kirk Hinrich is out with a sore right elbow, and he scored a team-high 14 points in a game in which the Bulls were eviscerated by the Miami Heat. Robinson is averaging 14.3 points, 6.7 assists and 2.0 3s per game in February, his best month since last April, and he ranks No. 53 on the Player Rater over the past 15 days. He's an effective source of points, assists and 3s, especially with Hinrich out, and with the chance that Derrick Rose might not return this season, Robinson continues to be a solid fantasy guard.

Looking Ahead

Derrick Williams' name had been involved in trade rumors all season, but he's still holding down Kevin Love's spot in Minnesota, and has actually been performing well recently, averaging 16.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.0 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game over the past five. Those are actually valuable fantasy numbers, and his role in Minnesota seems to be locked in until Love returns sometime in mid-to late-March, making Williams a decent fantasy option until then.

With Jordan Crawford out of the picture in Washington, look for Bradley Beal's recent effectiveness to continue. Beal is averaging 21.0 points and 2.3 3s per game over his past three contests and should see 30-plus minutes per game from here on out. On Friday, he faces a Denver Nuggets team that ranks in the bottom 10 in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing foes to drain from long range at a 36.2 percent clip. Beal looks to be a fantasy mainstay for the next decade, with his ability to score, hit 3s and accrue both steals and blocks. He is line for improved second-half stats now that the shooting guard job is all his.

Jose Calderon faces a tough Indiana Pacers defense Friday, but he's still a must-start in every format based on his recent productivity. One of the most under-the-radar trends is his fantastic fantasy output since joining the Detroit Pistons, as he is averaging 14.6 points, 6.4 assists, 2.8 3s and 1.4 steals per game in February while shooting an impressive 54.9 percent from the floor and 88.3 percent from the stripe.

Calderon's hidden value lies in his low turnovers, as he's averaging just 1.8 per game on the season, making his 4.31 assist-to-turnover ratio second best in the league behind Chris Paul. He has legit top-30 value in turnover formats due to his ability to post fantastic point guard stats without the turnovers that typically come along with them, although his name doesn't often carry that type of perceived value. If his owner sees him as another mid-level point guard, feel free to buy Calderon, as his success with the Pistons should continue for the rest of the season.

Many new additions to teams won't be available for Friday's contests, so don't be too amped to glean information about players' new value just yet. It'll take a few games before rotations settle and players like Thomas Robinson, Beno Udrih, Jordan Crawford, Anthony Morrow, Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris find their niche in their new digs, although nearly every name involved in Thursday's unremarkable trade deadline is only worth paying attention to in deeper leagues.

When all is settled, Udrih, Robinson, Crawford and Morrow should see increased value, so if you are in a format with more than 12 teams and marginal players like this are important, pay attention to playing time trends over the next week and pounce on some of the newly-surfaced deep league value.