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Thursday, March 28, 2013
Previewing the AL East

By ESPN.com and ESPN The Mag

Editor's note: ESPN.com has teamed with ESPN The Magazine and the SweetSpot Blog Network to produce this year's preview capsules.

Baseball has become so unpredictable that we needed to invent an entirely new way of guessing what will happen next. Below you'll find ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski's projections for the likely range of every team's wins, based on projections for every player on every roster.

Why Dan, why now? Because since he started doing this 10 years ago, Dan's median prediction has been accurate within 6.5 wins on average.

We also asked Szymborski to create a new metric, the unpredictablility index, which gauges what version of hope fans of every team should have. The metric is an offshoot of Szymborski's ZiPS projection system -- a sabermetric standard-bearer that factors in age, injury history and statistical highs and lows going back four years and makes its projections based on database comparisons across MLB history. With it, he sums up the volatility from 0 (what you see is what you get) to 2 (who knows).

Meanwhile, Tim Kurkjian predicts division standings, including wild-card teams, and offers the breakdowns that show how Szymborski's best- and worst-case scenarios will play out.

Click on the links below to go directly to a capsule for each American League East team:

Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox



Information courtesy of Mop-Up Duty

THE PICK

1st Place

Information courtesy of The Process Report

THE PICK

2nd Place

Information courtesy of David Schoenfield

THE PICK

3rd Place

Information courtesy of Bronx Baseball Daily

THE PICK

4th Place

Information courtesy of Fire Brand of the AL

THE PICK

5th Place