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Monday, April 15, 2013
Why this forecast works

ESPN.com

ESPN Forecast
Collective intelligence generally creates more accurate predictions than any individual can.

What is ESPN Forecast?
Our new engine for creating more accurate sports predictions and opinion.

Does it work?
Yes. For the past five years, ESPN's NBA Summer Forecast series has produced the most accurate predictions in the game.

And for two years running, our #NBArank feature has been based on the ESPN Forecast approach to generating state-of-the-art information and opinion.

This is the future of forecasting, as demonstrated by the 2012 presidential election and Fortune 500 companies.

How does it work?
Our approach, in a nutshell, is to create a diverse panel of people with NBA expertise and then aggregate their predictions and opinions. For ESPN Forecast, we have a panel of more than 200 members who collectively possess vast NBA experience, knowledge and perspective.

Why does it work?
This panel has a collective intelligence that's greater than any individual member's knowledge and sharper than that of any single statistical system.

Diversity is a key factor in creating accurate predictions and opinion. The wisdom of the crowd comes from having diverse views that emerge from independent thinking.

The ESPN Forecast panel is a very diverse mix of contributors from across the spectrum.

The result?
More accurate, insightful forecasts and views.

This is the wisdom of the crowd in action. This is ESPN Forecast.

The following provided direction for ESPN Forecast: Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild, Microsoft Research microeconomist Justin Rao, TrueHoop senior writer Henry Abbott, TrueHoop editor Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com senior NBA coordinator Chris Ramsay and ESPN.com NBA editor Royce Webb.