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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Updated: May 23, 2:56 PM ET
Keys for Nadal, Sharapova in Paris

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Here is a good indication of what Rafael Nadal needs to do to repeat based on the IBM data:

• In last year's Men's final (Nadal d. Djokovic in four sets), winning percentage on midsize points was identified as a key for both players. The key for Novak Djokovic to win was for him to be successful on at least 48 percent of three-to-eight shot rallies. For Nadal, the key was to win 52 percent of those same points. In each of the four sets, the winner was able to exceed their target. At the same time, the player who lost each set failed to achieve their target on three-to-eight shot rallies.

• In last year's men's final, below are a few of the startling match statistics as recorded by IBM: o Rafael Nadal had 29 unforced errors compared to 53 for Novak Djokovic o Neither player could hold serve very effectively; there were 17 breaks in the match including nine by Nadal and seven by Djokovic

• In last year's men's semifinal (Nadal d. Ferrer in three sets), Nadal dominated the scoreboard and exceeded all three of his keys to the match: o Nadal won more than 52 percent of his three-to-eight shot rallies o Nadal won more than 35 percent of his first serve return points o Nadal's aggressive ratio was higher than 1.3 (winners versus opponent unforced errors)

Here's a good indication of what Maria Sharapova needs to do to repeat based on IBM data:

• In last year's women's final, Sharapova breezed past Sara Errani in an amazing display of power according to IBM data metrics o Sharapova had six aces compared to zero for her opponent o Sharapova had 37 winners compared to 12 for Errani o Sharapova's fastest serve speed was 183 kph compared to just 153 kph for Errani

• In last year's women's final, Sharapova exceeded two of three keys, while Errani exceeded only one of three o Sharapova won more than 46 percent of her first-serve return points and she won more than 49 percent of three-to-eight shot rallies o Sharapova fell just short of her target to win more than 55 percent of points on second serve o Sara Errani exceeded her goal of an aggressive ratio of more than 1.4 but fell short of the target to win at least 46 percent of rallies with two of fewer shots. o The data told us Errani needed to serve more than 43 percent of her serves out wide and she fell well short of that target.