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Wednesday, June 5, 2013
Federer's numbers don't meet targets

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While most expected Roger Federer to advance past the quarterfinals, the biggest surprise at Roland Garros on Tuesday was just how easily Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was able to move on to the semifinals. Tsonga not only won in straight sets, 7-5, 6-3, 6-3, but the match lasted just 1 hour, 51 minutes, and the hometown hero was in complete control of the entire match.

Perhaps Federer was a bit fatigued from his five-set battle with Gilles Simon, but a look at the IBM Match Stats shows that Tsonga dominated in all areas. Jo-Wilfred won 103 points compared to just 73 for Federer, and the Swiss did not record a single ace in the match for the first time all tournament. Tsonga won an incredible 81 percent of all first serve points compared to Federer, who converted just 58 percent, an usually low total for him. That led to a bevy of break point chances and Tsonga won six of 14 games on Federer's racket.

As you would expect, Federer fell woefully short against two of his three IBM Keys to the Match. Federer converted just 47 percent of his points against Tsonga's second-serve against, a target of 63 percent. In addition, the keys indicated that Federer needed to serve no more than 15 percent of all serves into Tsonga's body, and Federer more than doubled that number. He was able to meet one key, which was to average between 6.2-7.5 points per service game, but in this case, one key was not enough.

Across the net, Tsonga met two of his three IBM Keys to the Match. His target was to win 56 percent of all 4-9 shot rallies, and he converted an impressive 67 percent of those points. Jo-Wilfred also had a target of winning at least 67 percent of first serve points and he easily surpassed that mark. He did fall short of his target to win 64 percent of return serve points with only 58 percent, but it was good enough.

Next up for Tsonga in the semifinal is David Ferrer, who also won in straight sets Tuesday. These two have a great opportunity in front of them with the winner likely to face either Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic in the final. The question is: Which one of them can get it done? We'll find out Sunday.