Jan. 5
If it were only a matter of competence, the problems that plague the San Diego Padres wouldn't exist.

San Diego has a core of veteran position players, led by Phil Nevin, one of the game's best right-handed hitters. They have acquired young middle-of-the-field talent from catcher all the way to center field, and one professional scouting director says, "By the end of this season, we may see that San Diego's young pitchers are better than Houston's, which is a lot to say about anyone."

	Phil Nevin is one of baseball's best right-handed hitters, but how long can the Padres afford to keep him around?

On a payroll that will be about a third of the Dodgers' -- somewhere between $32 million and $35 million -- the Pads have a team that, even if they don't make their complicated deal with the Mets, can expect to be better than .500 and in the middle of the NL West pack. And on Oct. 1, they may seem to have such a bright future that they have to wear shades.

But in baseball, unlike the National Football League, competence only goes so far; otherwise, we wouldn't be worried about the window creeping closed on a young team like the Oakland Athletics.

Twice in the last decade, the Padres have had to tear down to build up. And at this point in the sport's history -- where the dichotomy between big- and small-revenue markets resembles Madison Avenue, 88th versus 138th Streets -- without a new ballpark that at least gives them a chance to be in the Houston/San Fransisco middle-class neighborhood, the Pads' future is … well … uncertain.

John Moores bought the Padres with all good intentions. Former owner Tom Werner paved the way by downsizing, so Moores could buy in at the right working price. Then Moores and Larry Lucchino emptied their wallets to win the 1998 pennant and get the ballpark built, knowing they would eventually have to get from a 2000 payroll of $56.5 million to $32 million to keep things afloat until the new park could generate revenues.

But the park has twice been delayed, the first time because of accusations of improprieties involving Moores and a stock tip he gave to a city council member. Local gadfly Bruce Henderson, who has used his wealth to sue and sue to try and prevent the building of the stadium, tied them up for nearly two years.

Now, a local college professor has filed suit again. And since there is only one company willing to insure the city bonds -- and that company will not insure until the suit is settled (next month?) -- there is the possibility that park construction will be postponed until 2005. And if the city loses the suit, Moores will possibly either allow the club to be contracted next winter or sell to anyone willing to give it a home where the Hendersons don't care so much about killing it.

So general manager Kevin Towers, Ted Simmons and company are left with the National League team that most resembles the A's of the AL. The Pads have won 155 games over the last two seasons, and know they can develop a winner with a manager (Bruce Bochy) revered by his peers … but they don't really know what the future holds.

"Hopefully, it will all work itself out," says Towers. "We have a chance to be pretty good in a year or two. In fact, I think we can be right in the middle of the pack in our division this season. Arizona and San Francisco clearly start out better than we are on paper, but after those two teams I think we can play with anyone."

All any fan should want is a system where their team's performance can be judged the way individuals are judged -- by competency. But that's not the way it is.

Towers never complains about how unfair it is that teams like Los Angeles and Boston can spend $100 million and not be any better than the Pads. The club worked exhaustively to draw 2.37 million fans last season to watch a team with no expectations (of course, 2.37 million is 11th in the league in today's economy), and Towers has built an entertaining young team.

Nevin, whom Towers acquired for Andy Sheets, batted .306 with 126 RBI, 41 homers and a .976 OPS last season. He will move to first base in 2002. Sean Burroughs, a strong Rookie of the Year candidate and potential star, takes over at third with two talent kids acquired by Towers in the middle, shortstop Ramon Vazquez and second baseman D'Angelo Jimenez. Ryan Klesko goes to right field where he belongs, with Mark Kotsay -- another Towers trade that worked -- in center and Ray Lankford and Bubba Trammell in left. Should the Mets deal go through and Trammell goes to New York for lefty Bruce Chen and Benny Agbayani and Jay Payton, then the outfield is that much deeper.

The Pads still have their Cooperstown closer, Trevor Hoffman, and while they'd like to get Chen, the focus is on what pitching they may have in place at this time next year. Kevin Jarvis came on last season and the Pads have some Jason Middlebrooks to watch. "This," says Towers, "is going to be a lot of fun to watch develop."

Adam Eaton, who came over from Philadelphia in the Andy Ashby deal, will miss this season, but has shown to be a front-line starter. Dennis Tankersley, he of the hard sinker and was 10-4 on three levels with 35 more strikeouts than innings pitched, could be in San Diego by midseason. Tankersley was a thrown-in by the Red Sox in the Ed Sprague deal in 2000 because the Boston minor-league people so misevaluated his ability that he was buried in a South Atlantic League bullpen.

Fellow righties Jake Peavey (9-6; Single-A/Double-A) and Ben Howard (10-2, 136 K, 130 IP; Single-A/Double-A) could be joining Tankersley with the big club. As could lefty Eric Cyr, who had a 1.61 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings in the Cal League, and former No. 1 Mark Phillips, who Towers says, "might be the best of them all, and he'll be starting the season in Double-A."

It will take a couple of years to build this group into a solid contender, like Oakland. But then, like the A's, they face the inevitable question: Can they afford to keep Nevin and Klesko, as Oakland could not keep Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon? That, of course, assumes that Henderson and friends give up trying to run them out of town.

Slashing payrolls
Commissioner Bud Selig may have overstated his case about bloodletting in the industry. He certainly has worsened smaller-market situations by preventing the selling of tickets and development of promotions, but the fact remains there are a lot of teams downsizing their payrolls: