The Ken Lay Leadership Council that spent the winter firebombing all that was great about the 2001 season will stay home, declining to answer questions about accounting practices and consulting with their lawyers from Anthony, Young and plotting ways to force a midseason strike and keep their highlights off television.

Their time, thankfully, is up, at least for now, and as soon as the Montreal Expos Receivership is announced Tuesday -- and the good news is that Mets assistant general manager Omar Minaya will get the opportunity to prove his GM capabilities -- those two magic words, pitchers and catchers, will set us free from the folks whose past winters were spent trying to move the Giants to St. Petersburg and concocting pay-for-performance.

As Minaya and Frank Robinson watch Javier Vazquez, the Red Sox monitor Pedro Martinez and stories unfurl across Florida and Arizona, the question that was raised last season is worth raising again: How many teams are going to spring training believing they have a legitimate chance to compete for the playoffs?

Granted, this sport isn't going to have a New England Patriots script, not when the Yankees' payroll is nearly 3½ times that of the Oakland Athletics. General managers can joke about those things ("We're like a mom 'n pop store going up against Bill Gates," says Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi, to which his counterpart in Oakland, Billy Beane, adds, "If the Blue Jays are a mom 'n pop store, we're a lemon-aid stand."), but they have to deal with reality.

Still, management counts for something, which is why Oakland could win the 2002 World Series and why GM Dave Littlefield has a five-year project to salvage the Pirates out of the Allegheny River. And while the Yankees open camp Thursday as the favorites to go back to the World Series for the sixth time in seven years and the Mets close in on the combined payrolls of the Phillies, Marlins and Expos, more than half the teams in the game start spring training believing that if the right things happen they'll be able to print playoff tickets in September.

Teams with still-valid fantasies of making the playoffs
American League
New York Yankees
Boston
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland
Minnesota
Seattle
Oakland
Texas

National League
Atlanta
New York Mets
St. Louis
Chicago Cubs
Houston
Arizona
San Francisco
Los Angeles

Teams with all things going right could be in the wild-card races on Labor (oops, I said it again) Day
American League
Toronto
Anaheim

National League
Philadelphia
Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado

The Angels have five legitimate starters and a great closer. The Phillies can argue that they belong in the first group, despite all buildup of the Braves and Mets. If the Marlins' pitching is as good as they believe -- and Ryan Dempster's recovery from the Vazquez beaning from last season and his subsequent Steve Blass Disease is a spring story to watch -- they will be extremely dangerous.

The Reds have plenty of potential positional talent; they have to build a starting staff in front of what should be a superb bullpen. And remember, the Rockies were fourth in the NL in road ERA last season with Mike Hampton's second-half groin problems and some bullpen attrition, so they shouldn't be ignored.

Teams rebuilding or qualifying for the Bill Gates foundation
American League
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Detroit
Kansas City

National League
Montreal
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
San Diego

The Padres will have a dangerous lineup and the beginning stages of developing what could be a 2004 pennant rotation. The Tigers should be a lot better, and if the Brewers can keep Ben Sheets and their pitchers healthy, they should be better than they were if their hitters can Just Say No to every pitch offered by opposing pitchers.

Teams that, as of Valentine's Day, could win the World Series if they get to October
American League
New York Yankees
Seattle
Oakland

National League
Atlanta
New York Mets
St. Louis
Arizona
Los Angeles
San Francisco

Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder with two years of playoff experience ... on a roll? So, say the Mariners win 92 games instead of 116, but Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche in place of Aaron Sele and Paul Abbott give them four legitimate postseason starters? Until they are eliminated, any team with a healthy Kevin Brown -- like any team with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson -- is on the radar screen.

There are folks in New England who believe the same thing about the Red Sox, given the health of Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Varitek and some legitimate No. 2 starter, and, speaking of the Patriots, there are diehard Cubs fans who think about Kerry Wood, Jon Lieber and Juan Cruz on a Hershiseresque roll and believe that these are going to be far different from their parents' Cubs. Say the Giants do get Orlando Hernandez and he, Livan, Jason Schmidt, Russ Ortiz, Kirk Rueter and Barry Bonds al have monster postseasons?

Do you give the Rangers a chance? That might necessitate Chan Ho Park winning 20 games. And those who would try to shut down the game before the Diamondbacks' parade would probably add that, come July, the Yankees can go buy whatever and whomever they need. But pitchers and catchers are reporting right around Valentine's Day, and so it's fun to fantasize about such Game 7 matchups as Tim Hudson vs. Kerry Wood or C.C. Sabathia vs. Matt Morris. You see, Lords, it's supposed to be fun.

Tough times in Pittsburgh
It's not much fun if you're running the Pirates, given the payroll problems because of bad contracts, Kris Benson coming off surgery and the fact that the farm system is virtually barren on the Double- and Triple-A levels. But this winter, Littlefield brought in some excellent scouting minds -- starting with Ed Creech, Jax Robertson, Bill Singer and Doug Strange -- as well as solid hires from the Marlins.

	Benson

"We've tried to help our young pitching with middle defense and bullpen depth," said Littlefield, who with Jason Kendall (thumb surgery behind him) catching, Pokey Reese and Jack Wilson in the infield and Adrian Brown in center will catch the ball.

Benson will probably have to have a break-back year as a reliever, much like Morris did for the 2000 Cardinals, which puts pressure on Kip Wells, Dave Williams, Jimmy Anderson, Tony McKnight, et al. But Littlefield knows scoring runs will be a problem -- not only were the Pirates 29th in the majors in runs scored, but they were 30th in production at first base (with Kevin Young making $6 million) and shortstop, and 29th in right field and second base. While Todd Ritchie is a solid starter, the pitching staff as a whole was so weak that they were outscored by an astounding 201 runs. So Sean Lowe and Josh Fogg -- who came with Wells in the Richie deal -- become important. One key decision to watch is what they do with Chad Hermansen, who is now out of options and struck out 154 times in 547 at-bats last season in Triple-A.

Better times for White Sox
However, it is fun if you're Ken Williams, Jerry Manuel and the White Sox. The Kenny Lofton signing -- which Williams says amounted to $1 million in present day value -- gives the White Sox the possibility of a dangerous leadoff hitter, something they so lacked last season as evidenced by their having just a .330 on-base percentage from their leadoff hitters. Lofton's OBP has dropped from .405 in 1999 to .322 last year, but now he has been slapped in the face with cold-career reality.

	Lofton

"Kenny has a lot to prove," says Williams, "and he's worked very hard to come back. He's conditioned very hard, even tried yoga. I think you're going to see the old Kenny Lofton."

If that's true, then the White Sox could have a very dangerous lineup, with Ray Durham, Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko, Jose Valentin and Carlos Lee following Lofton. How close the Sox come to their 2000 season -- when they led the AL in wins -- will depend on the health of their pitchers. Williams says that Bob Howry, Lorenzo Barcelo, Kelly Wunsch and Antonio Osuna should be at full strength for the opening of camp this week, and that Jim Parque will be ready for the start of the season.

"These players have already proven a lot to me," says Williams. "After they started 16-29, watched one teammate after another headed off to the hospital, they never quit and ended up with a winning record. They have proven a lot the last two years."

Better times for Dodgers, too
It's also fun if you're Dan Evans. Hey, the Dodgers GM signed Kazuhisa Ishii for what amounts to $9.8 million for four years in present market value. He also whittled a terribly managed payroll down from $113 million to $105 million and altered the balance on the pitching staff. At the end of last season, Evans was concerned that the starting staff was too similar -- too right-handed, too many sinker-slider guys.

	Herges

Now, presuming Kevin Brown and Andy Ashby are healthy, manager Jim Tracy has Brown, Ashby, Hideo Nomo and Eric Gagne for right-handers and Ishii, Odalis Perez and Omar Daal for lefties. Evans and Dave Wallace worked hard to find a closer but for now will use Matt Herges and Paul Quantrill in that role, then eventually see if Darren Dreifort can help. Barring that, they have some depth to trade for a reliever.

"With all those left-handers, it's important to have good defense on the left side, and I think we do with Adrian Beltre healthy and Cesar Izturis," says Evans. He and Wallace knew they could not keep Gary Sheffield and avoid distractions, so they have to hope that Brian Jordan's fire is supported by the health of Beltre and Eric Karros, as well as the possibility that Dante Bichette can play some left and Jordan center.

Incidentally, a key player in the Ishii signing was pitching coach Jim Colborn, who coached for four years in Japan and as international coordinator in Seattle engineered the Kazuhiro Sasaki and Ichiro Suzuki signings. "Jim was a Rhodes Scholar candidate, for goodness sake," says Evans. "He brings so much to this organization, more than I can begin to detail."