DIAMOND NOTES: May 11

On the morning of May 11, the Yankees were 22-14, tied with the Twins for the third-best record in the American League. And Andy Pettitte has hardly pitched, Mariano Rivera has been human and they really haven't hit. Yet all week, the focus on the Yankees has been whom they must next buy.

	If the Marlins fall off, Cliff Floyd might be used as trade bait.

This is not to suggest the Yankees bought their great run of four world championships and five pennants in six years; the Red Sox had a higher payroll last year and ended up winning the Carl Everett Memorial Mud-Wrestling Championship.

But here it's six weeks into the season and it's evident that if Nick Johnnson or the John Vander Wal/Shane Spencer platoon doesn't produce or if Pettitte doesn't come back and something happens to Roger Clemens or David Wells the Yankees expect to go buy what they want and need the way Wayne Huizenga shopped for his house on Nantucket.

Yes, Yankees GM Brian Cashman called the Marlins about Cliff Floyd, because Cashman, like Mets GM Steve Phillips, calls every week about players in whom he has interest. Problem is, Marlins people told Cashman they wouldn't talk about Floyd until after the All-Star break, or at the approach to the trading deadline when they can more accurately assess where they are, which right now happens to be in first place in the NL East.

Yes, Cashman has talked to Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi, who is talking to a lot of teams, and in time the Jays will deal Jose Cruz Jr. or Shannon Stewart; problem is, Ricciardi has to have pitching (Brandon Claussen, Ted Lilly) and would like Johnson, and right now the Yankees aren't prone to move in that direction. Yes, the Tigers sent GM Dave Dombrowski's assistant Scott Reid in to talk about a major deal, and Cashman made it clear that the Yankees have no interest in Bobby Higginson, whose contract is $5.87 million in 2002, $11.87 million in 2003 and $8.87 million in 2004-2005. Asked if the Yankees are looking at a specific outfielder, one club official said, "we're looking at a lot of outfielders." Larry Walker, wanna come? Junior Griffey? Darin Erstad?

Boston may be able to take on one more contract, uneasily, to try to win now. Seattle is trying to deal for a starter, a reliever and a bat, but is unlikely to take on any long-term commitments. The White Sox might, despite low attendance numbers at Comiskey Park. But the Yankees are expected to, and therein lies part of what takes away the pure fun of being a baseball fan if you were born and raised with the Yankees: if they don't win, it is considered failure.

In contrast, one team that desperately needs one more bat in the middle of its lineup is Cleveland, with Jim Thome and Travis Fryman struggling mightily. But the Cleveland market is not New York. The Indians did it right and built a strong, entertaining team that lost in the sixth and seventh games respectively in the 1995 and 1997 World Series. But in today's world, ballpark revenue is but a part of the revenue equation, and the Indians have fallen far back of the Yankees, Mariners, Mets and Red Sox. In fact, after paring payroll, if the Indians draw less than 2.5 million fans this season -- and they projected budgets on 3 million -- there's a chance they won't be able to keep Thome when this season is over. Meanwhile, the Yankees don't have to sweat if Sterling Hitchcock and Steve Karsay don't happen to live up to their combined $11 million per year contracts.

And it's not just in the major-league payroll world. When Alfonso Soriano was a free agent coming out of Japan, the top two bidders were the Yankees and Indians, and the Yankees doubled Cleveland's offer. The Yankees could afford to give Wily Mo Pena $3.8 million and win the bidding on El Duque and pay Drew Henson $18 million, and when Kendry Morales, the 18-year-old switch-hitting third baseman/outfielder for Industriales who may be the best player to come along in Cuba since Omar Linares debuted in 1984, can get to the U.S., the Yankees will pay what it takes (don't worry, George Steinbrenner, when Kendry was 15 he told me that his favorite player is Andy Morales, but Andy doesn't think they are related).

But before Bud Selig gets too excited reading all this: the answer is not a work stoppage. The best thing Selig and the owners could do right now is to accept the players pledge to trade vows, a non-strike for a non-implementation promise. Work on ways to increase revenue sharing. Think about New York Post columnist Joel Sherman's inventive plan to put aside a fund to help the Indians keep Thome, the Angels to keep Erstad, etc. Negotiate your right to contract.

But as for trying to break the Players Association, this is your Vietnam, and the cost of battle is too great. Don Fehr, Gene Orza and the players are never going to believe what you're telling them is going to happen, especially with Florida, Cincinnati, San Francisco and Minnesota in first place.

Let the market dictate to Fehr that compromise isn't an evil concept, and that it is possible for the owners and players to make mutually beneficial deals. There already was a serious market correction last winter. Neither Barry Bonds nor Jason Giambi got a Manny Ramirez deal; only Chan Ho Park got more than one might have expected, and that had a lot to do with Texas owner, Tom Hicks. Juan Gonzalez had to take a market cut. Johnny Damon, Jason Isringhausen, Ruben Sierra and Pedro Astacio were great signings, but none were bankbusters. Look where Kenny Lofton, Rey Sanchez, Pokey Reese, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, David Bell. David Wells and Mike Williams had to fall to get signed.

"If we go through another winter where there is a growing chasm between average and mean and a smaller percentage of players is making a larger percentage of the pool, then the voices of the players will start to be raised," says one agent. "But Don has never denied that. He's always asked for the market to correct itself. However, a lot of teams are finding that they can live without the middle-of-the-road players. There may be dozens of pitchers who fall from $2.5 million-$4 million to $800,000, especially with the glut of free agent middle relievers this winter. I maintain that what happened last winter in terms of correction will take two years to get back, and if they have another winter of correction, it could be three to five years.

Teams like the Reds know you don't pay the artificial arbitration numbers to the Pokey Reeses and Dmitri Youngs, you save your money for the players who make a difference, and find the rest of the pieces out of the system or in the market pile. Teams like the Blue Jays, Tigers, Devil Rays and Brewers must now realize that they are where they are because of what they paid, not what they didn't pay. That, in itself, is market correction.

Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays who want to dump payroll say they may find very few teams able to take on money on the trade market. "You don't get prospects for contracts right now," says an NL GM. Then think about negotiating some changes, then rolling the agreement over for one more year and spending the winter promoting the business, not telling the paying customers how bad it is.

	Maddux

	Clemens

The prime upcoming free agent list is: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, Robb Nen (if he chooses), Thome, Jeff Kent, Scott Rolen, Edgardo Alfonzo, Erstad and Floyd. There will be a large pool of available players under contract, a pool the Mets used this past winter.

"Other than the Yankees and perhaps the Mets, how many teams will be able to hit the market?" asks one GM. Boston might have room for one, and the Indians fear they will sign Thome. What about the Rangers? If Tom Hicks loses $40 million this year, will he dip back again, especially considering he told former GM Doug Melvin they needed to cut back last winter, then went ahead and fired Melvin? Baltimore? Doubtful. Between the national and baseball economy, the rest of the teams are going to have to be very cautious about spending, in case you haven't noticed the sagging attendance figures.

Is Floyd going to get $14 million? No way. Erstad? No. The four extraordinary pitchers (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine and Leiter) are all short-term signs because of age.

Owners suddenly feel better about themselves being frugal than "showing they want to win." Another cold winter and enough Loftons go from $8 million to $1 million per year and there will be voices heard raising questions.

Fehr will believe those voices. He will never believe the owners' voices.

Searching for that elusive closer
"A closer," says one GM, "is developed out of necessity. It's not exactly a position where one says, 'hey, I'm going to go get me a closer in the draft.' If so, Matt Anderson would be a star. Or Dustin Hermanson. Billy Koch is probably an exception. Sometimes they develop because you have to use him somewhere, or use someone there."

There are few better examples than Eric Gagne. Or John Smoltz. Or Jorge Julio. Or Hideki Irabu, who after Jeff Zimmerman couldn't pitch and the Rangers bullpen kept getting torched, moved into the role, started throwing his forkball and became Arlington's answer to Kazuhiro Sasaki. The Twins gave up on LaTroy Hawkins in the role last year, turned the job to Everyday Eddie Guardado based on experience and he went into Saturday tied for the major-league lead with 12 saves. The A's made Billy Taylor a 100-save closer, turned him over for Jason Isringhausen, made him a closer and when he left traded for Koch -- although they'd have rather settled for Kelvim Escobar.

"There are only a handful of sure things," says a GM. "Mariano Rivera. Robb Nen. Trevor Hoffman. Troy Percival. Billy Wagner (one should also add Armando Benitez). That's about it. Then there are makeup guys like Mike Williams, Bob Wickman, Sasaki, Danny Graves." And, as long as he's healthy, Ugie Urbina is as tough as there is.

Go back to last year's All-Star break. Of the 30 teams, only 12 have the same closer they had at that time, and it's 11 if you recall that the Indians were trying to relace Wickman with John Rocker. Yeah, and Urbina, Guardado and Williams are tops in saves.

Sizing up the draft
The draft is little more than three weeks away, and because of the lack of clear star prospects, this is turning out to be the most fluid of any draft in a decade, when the Astros in 1992 went back and forth between choosing either Chad Mottola or Phil Nevin as the first pick in the preceding hours of the draft.

For more than a month, the Pirates, who own the first pick, are thought to be leaning toward Chesapeake, Va. shortstop B.J. Upton as the top pick, but now they may be wavering. Ball State right-hander Bryan Bullington was the choice de jour last week, but after watching University of Houston lefty Scott Kazmir's three-inning, nine-strikeout, four-foul ball outing after being hit in his throwing shoulder by a ball before the game, the fireballer, who was measured by the Reds at close to 6-foot-1, is in the mix to be the top pick.

"Bullington still may be the guy, then Tampa will have to pick between Kazmir and Upton," says one scout. "Cincinnati loves (right-hander) Chris Gruler (Brentwood, Calif.)." Indeed. They compare him to Curt Schilling. But Reds GM Jim Bowden loves Kazmir, as well.

Baltimore is reportedly leaning toward Virginia Tech lefty Tony Saunders, and the Expos are on another left-hander, Jeff Francis of British Columbia, Rutgers righty Bobby Brownlie (who hasn't thrown well because of some tendinitis, which could force him to drop-like Mike Mussina did in 1990), Stanford's Jeremy Guthrie, Kentucky's Joe Blantton and several other college pitchers. When the Royals and Brewers pick, expect a run on high school pitchers: Lefty Adam Loewen of Surrey, B.C., Gruler, righty Zach Grienke of Apopka, Fla., 6-5 right-hander Jason Neighborgall of Durham, N.C. has as high a ceiling and as quick an arm as any high school pitcher, but he has Scott Boras as his agent and he has signability and health issues.

"At this time of year, high school players rise and fall, and because teams start focusing on tools, the college players everyone's watched tend to fall," says one GM. "Neighborgall could be in the first round, or he could fall a couple of rounds."

John Mayberry, Jr., a Jermaine Dye clone out of Kansas City, is a rising star. Meanwhile, teams who base more on performance and baseball skill hope that the best college positional players like North Carolina infielder Russ Adams and Clemson third baseman Jeff Baker fall deeper into the first round. Someday, someone will look back at Clemson shortstop Khalil Greene falling to the 14th round last year -- while forgettable high schoolers got millions -- and wonder if Darryl Strawberry was doing the selecting.

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